Saturday, August 19, 2006

A Shorter Aftermath

The long version of what happened in Lebanon is in Aftermath. The short version of what happened in Lebanon is: it was a spoiling attack designed to destroy Iranian deterrence. Deterrence rests on fear. In this case the fear of barrages of cheap rockets. The Iranians have found out that you can't scare the Israelis on the cheap.

Michael Totten has some good pictures of the aftermath in Israel.

Real military powers have Air Forces. Every body else in this world is just a bunch of wannabes.

So how about a couple of questions. The Israeli Air Force can buzz Damascus with impunity. What would happen if the Syrian Airforce buzzed Haifa?

The Israeli Airforce with in flight refueling (they have and use the tankers) can reach Iran. Can the Iranian Airfoce reach Israel? What would happen if they did?

The Israeli Airforce is making Bekaa runs. Have the rocket barrages or the ground war restarted?

Now tell me who won.

In 22 August I talk about what kind of nuclear rocket attack from Iran is possible and what the Israeli response is likely to be. Short version. Leaflet a city and then nuke it. Or bomb a few nuke production installations.

Update: 19 Aug '06 1732z

Slightly OT: The Canadians are blaming Hizbollah for starting the war.

Update: 20 Aug '06 0729z

You can fight a war without an airforce. You can slow the enemy down with fortifications. You can kill enemy soldiers. You cannot win.

Ask yourself. Is Hizbollah holding Israeli territory? Or is Israel holding Hizbollah territory? Israel has a whole lot of mildly damaged buildings (see the Totten link above). Hizbollah has whole blocks of buildings converted into rubble. If the war was to restart tomorrow which side would be in better shape?

The Israeli Army is in trouble. Not because it did poorly. But, because it did not live up to expectations. The French should have an army so good. Well maybe not. They still have delusions of grandeur.

5 comments:

pessimist said...

your assumption that Israelis dont fear anymore rockets from Hizballah is not credible.
The population is frustated.They had lived 34 days in shelters with the hope of victory. Now, this hope was squandered. They wont have the strenght to endure all that again.
That is why Israel is abiding for a cease fire in the worst terms.

adam said...

just a few loose ends ...

Newt Gingrich is saying this is the worst defeat in Israel's history and a major blow for the west. I knew it was the conventional wisdom but if he's saying it then there's virtually nobody who thinks otherwise.

In spite of what you've said here, Nasrallah is being deified while Olmert is begin taken out back to be shot.

If it's about options, I think the outcome of this war is ultimately going to depend on the human shield question.

The specter of atrocity is a very real limitation on Israeli freedom of action.

On the other side, we'll have to wait and see if the Lebanese rebel against Hezbollah or not.

Another thing I find interesting is Syria's statement that they're going to develop a Hezbollah style force. Does Assad understand that statelessness and the use of human shields are the only reasons Hezballah survived this war? I wonder how that will play in Syria.

… so many ways to tip the human shield balance. Arabs can rebel against being used this way, or volunteer in record numbers. The world can stop caring how many Arabs die this way, or start calling them martyrs. The world can blame the people who place innocents in harms way for their fates, or give those leaders a pass. Israel can stop caring what the world thinks, or succumb to the pressures.

And where are all THESE battles fought?

adam said...

just an aside -

I can across this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8VcvougayQ&mode=related&search=

How hard can it be to kill everybody inside that mountain without hurting anybody above it?

linearthinker said...

adam said...
"How hard can it be to kill everybody inside that mountain without hurting anybody above it?"

Long answer: 1,000 and 2,000 lb bunker busters, followed up by 500 lb general purpose bombs to pulverize the rubble.

Short answer: Who cares?

M. Simon said...

I'm still waiting for Hizbollah to start firing rockets.

The Lebanese PM is sure they will honor the cease fire? Why? Because they are full of foght?

No one is sure the Israelis will keep the cease fire. Why because they are defeated and fear another war?

Why a Hizbollah style force? It is cheaper than a real army and would hold up longer. Thus defeat would be cheaper. i.e. more graft for the cronies (fewer folks to watch with coup power). Great military idea?

Israel is burning for revenge. The comments here are typical. The "defeated" with an intact military are now building up for a grudge match.