Arafat Honored In The Usual Way

Honoring Arafat:

What was supposed to be a gathering to remember Yasser Arafat turned bloody...

6 are dead after Hamas opened fire on the massive Fatah gathering.

H/T Gateway Pundit who has pictures and more.

Palestinian Civil War Watch - 16

I haven't been keeping up with the Palestinian Civil War of late. It would seem that an update is in order. It seems that Palestinian National Unity is insufficiently united. Lets start with early yesterday.

Associated Press - May 16, 2007 12:23 AM ET

There's been more factional violence in the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian security officials in Gaza City say Hamas gunmen stormed the home of a top Fatah official early Wednesday, killing five bodyguards inside.

Officials say Hamas militants fired mortars at the house of a Fatah security chief (Rashid Abu Shbak) before storming it and planting pipe bombs inside.

The attack comes after a brutal day of factional fighting between Hamas and Fatah rivals in Gaza that killed 15 people. The fighting has forced terrified residents to huddle in their homes.

Evidently among the Palestinians governmental succession is handled the old fashioned way. First you vote. If the vote tallies are incorrect you fight. Obviously some one made a mistake counting. Happens.

I'm not sure how this report meshes with the previous one but it does give some definition to the local color.

Hamas gunmen riddled a Fatah police jeep with gunfire at close range Tuesday, killing eight policemen in the most ruthless round yet of factional fighting, pushing the fragile Palestinian unity government closer to collapse.

Thirteen people were killed on Tuesday. Gunmen in black ski masks controlled the streets and terrified residents huddled in their homes. Israel, too, was briefly drawn into the battle.

I'll get back to the Israelis shortly. In the mean time we have the umpteenth call for a cease fire, a new and improved security plan, plus some minor unresolved issues. Like who will govern.

In the West Bank, Abbas called for the immediate implementation of a security plan that would put all rival forces under one command. However, his call is unlikely to be heeded: the fighting made it clear that the Hamas-Fatah power struggle was never really resolved, despite the formation of the unity government in March.

I said it was a joke then. It is a disaster now.

In other news it looks like general fighting is not the only answer to determining the nature of the next Palestinian Government. Attempted murder on the leadership seems to be a popular sport.

An alleged plot by Hamas militants to assassinate Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas was revealed on Thursday as deadly factional fighting resumed in Gaza and Israeli air strikes targeted the violence-wracked territory.

The plot was claimed hours after Abbas called off a trip to Gaza for talks aimed at reaching a definitive ceasefire between fighters from his Fatah party and Hamas that has left nearly 50 people dead and 100 wounded since Sunday.

"Abu Mazen's (Abbas's) visit to Gaza was cancelled after the discovery of a tunnel under Salaheddine Road full of explosives placed by the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades to blow up (his) convoy," said a senior security official, referring to Hamas's military wing.

If he dies who will replace him? Who will the Euros be able to visit when they come to the great nation of Palestine?

An official in Abbas's office confirmed the report but Abu Obeida, spokesman for the Hamas armed wing, told AFP "these reports are aimed at poisoning the atmosphere in Gaza. We deny them completely."

That is so much better than the incomplete denials we get so often from the Palestinians. Or in other word: "It is totally true, but honor demands we deny it. Other wise we would have to admit that we were lying when we invited Abbas for peace talks. Which would be a grevious stain on our honor. After all, we are all honorable men here."

The Israelis who for months have been complaining of rocket attacks coming from Gaza have decided on some active diplomacy to convince the Palestinians that further attacks are not in their best interests.

As the Palestinian crisis worsened, Israeli aircraft carried out four air strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, killing six people in retaliation for rockets being fired on Israel from the territory.

The first attack hit the headquarters of a Hamas paramilitary force, killing one person and wounding 30. Barely two hours later, a Hamas fighter was killed when Israel fired on a car in Gaza City.

A house was targeted in another strike that left another Hamas militant dead and a fourth strike on a car in the Sufa area, one of the crossing points between Israel and the southern Gaza Strip, killed another three people.

About 15 Israeli tanks also advanced into Gaza near the former settlement of Dugit, a Palestinian security official said.

"Israeli tanks moved about two kilometres (1.2 miles) into the Gaza Strip, near the former (Jewish) settlement of Dugit, and east of Jabaliya" southeast of Dugit and four kilometres (2.5 miles) from the border at its closest point, the source said.

An Israeli military spokesman said only that "some tanks entered the northern Gaza Strip in a defensive move, without going far from the barrier" separating the territory from Israel.

The army also deployed a battery of 155mm artillery facing the Gaza Strip.

Israel's actions threatened to further exacerbate tensions in Gaza, turned into a warzone by five days of battles between rival Fatah and Hamas fighters that has driven the coalition cabinet to the brink of collapse.

The movement of the 155s signals Israely willingness to use counter battery fire on those launching rockets at Israel.

Personally I think the Palestinian National Unity Government is in the same condition as it ever was. DOA.

Here is another little bit about Israeli artillery in the Gaza area.

The decision to return the cannons to Gaza was made on Wednesday, and within less than 12 hours the regiment troops arrived at the area and began setting up a camp in the Gaza Strip.

At this stage, it is still unclear whether the batteries are being used only in order to deter the Palestinians, and whether the soldiers would be allowed to fire shells only after receiving approval from a major-general.

In other words the rules of engagement are fairly restrictive at this time.

Former and perhaps soon to be Israely Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a few suggestions on how to deal with the Palestinians. Full siege warfare.

Chairman of the Israeli Likud party, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Thursday called for cutting the water and electricity supplies of the Gaza Strip, and depriving it of services. He said that fundamental services, basics of human life, should be controlled by the Israeli authorities, in response to the continuation of the launching of homemade projectiles towards Israeli targets.

Netanyahu also expressed his support to a limited Israeli ground invasion into the Gaza Strip; to a limit of around four kilometers from the northern border, aimed at stopping the launch of projectiles toward Sderot and Ashkelon cities.

So far the ground incursions have already happened. I wonder if he is telegraphing Israel's further moves?

Palestinians Want Revenge - Against Palestinians

The Palestinians are at it again.

Fatah supporters in Gaza clamored for revenge against Hamas on Saturday as they buried the fourth victim of factional fighting this week. The renewed violence, which also claimed the life of a 4-year-old boy caught in crossfire, raised concerns that the power-sharing deal between the rivals might not hold.

Arafa Nofal, an officer from a security force loyal to Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, was killed by unidentified gunmen in Gaza on Friday.

Nofal's family carried his bruised body, wrapped in Fatah's yellow flag and a Palestinian flag, through the streets of Gaza City. The response is coming, the response is coming, shouted the mourners, including dozens of gunmen.

Rumor has it that Condi Rice is cooking up another peace plan. This plan like all the others will depend on Palestinians wanting peace.

So let me ask. If they don't want peace with each other, why are they going to want peace with Israel? Because they are tired of fighting?

Meaningless Sacrifice

The New York Times has an excellent report on the dead end of the Palestinian fight to destroy Israel. Even victories like expelling all Israelis from Gaza look like defeats.

“It was always our choice to be fuel for the struggle,” he said. “But our problem now is that the car burns the youth as fuel but doesn’t move. There’s a problem in the engine, in the head. These kids are willing to be fuel, but many have been burned as waste.”

Mr. Zubeidi was a hero of the first intifada. “When I was younger I thought, ‘if I die, that’s natural, it’s for a cause,’ ” he said. “And today I think differently. To die? For what? For these people who can’t agree? That’s what this generation fears. It’s lost, and its sacrifices are meaningless. Is the Palestinian dream dying? In these circumstances, yes.”

Actually this is a very hopeful sign. Wars end when one side loses all hope.

One must also look carefully at what the Palestinian hope is. The destruction of Israel and the expulsion of all Jews from "Moslem" lands. The end of that hope could be the beginning of reality.

A Palestinian father talks about his children's future.

For the Id al-Fitr festival, the boys asked for toy Kalashnikovs and Uzis, and they know all about the crude rockets, the Qassams, that militants fire into southern Israel. “They classify the weapons, they want a particular gun,” Mrs. Assar said. “And when you think of the violence, and what future will we have here? It will be a very violent future.”

Mr. Assar broke in. “The world is moving ahead, and we’re moving backward,” he said. “We’re back to 1948.”

What was 1948? The first Arab war to exterminate the Jews or drive them from Israel. It was a failure for the Arabs.

They commemorate their defeat with Al-nakba Day. Nakba means “catastrophe” or “disaster.” So far Palestinian Arabs have one disaster after another to celebrate. Every few years they come up with a reason for a new holiday.

What happens when a culture is just going through the motions and no longer believes in its own myths? It collapses. The fall of the USSR is a prime example that is less than 20 years old.

In another part of the refugee camp, four black-clad fighters gathered in self-conscious secrecy, members of the Abu Rish brigades, a militant Gazan offshoot of Fatah that opposed the Oslo accords with Israel and has moved closer to Hamas.

Raed, 30, was arrested in the first intifada, when he was 16. He felt a hero at the time, but the political result, the 1993 Oslo accords, “were useless and benefited Israel,” he said. “No one can resist with stones or build a nation without violence.”

Like his comrades, he says he is fighting for the future of his own children, but he has small hopes for them, and large fears. “Hamas and Fatah are so divided, the goal of Palestine disappears,” he said. “I talk about willing my children to be martyrs for Allah, but I honestly wish for them to be safe and healthy, that’s all.”

There is bravado there, but also frustration. None of the fighters, who agreed to talk if their last names were not published, believes a Palestinian state will be established; none can imagine living next to Israel. All of them want to leave and start again, somewhere.

What do you do when your dreams of conquest turn into a nightmare of defeat? If you can, you go some place else to start over.

Where that some where might be is not yet determined. Their Arab brothers certainly don't want them. With their propensity for violence they will not be welcomed in any civilized place. Even conquest only gets you so far when you run out of victims. Then you must return to productive pursuits and produce real fruits. Martyrdom produces no fruit.

Gaza is a poor, chaotic place of 1.5 million people, 70 percent of them refugees or their descendants. Younger, more conservative and more religious than the West Bank, Gaza is the heartland of Hamas, and the people of Gaza are even more constrained by Israeli and Egyptian security restrictions on their travel. There are fewer jobs than in the West Bank, and even more weapons.

With the economy of Gaza shutting down, much of the work available for young people is either in the swollen and disorganized security forces or in the armed militias or gangs, many of them built on clan loyalties, and some of which engage more in racketeering than in fighting. Hamas and Islamic Jihad, with considerable financial help from Iran and Syria, are known at least to pay their people, even if Hamas cannot pay full salaries to all Palestinian Authority employees.

Hassan, 21, ran out of money before finishing university, but cannot imagine what he would do in Gaza with a degree. “I look at the graduates here, and their diplomas are useless,” he said. “That’s why I’m in the resistance.”

Before the start of Intifada II the Palestinian and Israeli economies were integrating. Unemployment among Palestinian Arabs has declined from about 35% to about 15% over a four year period. That ended in 2000 with the start of the latest war between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs.

One of Arafat's henchmen gave the reason for the start of the latest war - well fed people do not wish to fight. So it was Arafat's policy to start wars when the people stared progressing. Economic independence makes rule difficult. People start gaining a measure of independence. Alternate power centers are created. What dictator wants that going on in his back yard?

Khader Fayyad, 46, lives in Beit Hanun and works as an ambulance driver for the Palestinian Red Crescent, dispatched to every horror.

“I call these kids the destroyed generation,” Mr. Fayyad said. “Nobody pays attention to this generation, except to recruit them, and it’s very dangerous.”

He is proud of 16-year-old Ayman, the brightest of his sons. But he feels unable to provide him a valuable future.

Mr. Fayyad’s own father died when he was 17. But it was a different time, he said — the peace talks, the Oslo accords, the return of responsibility to Palestinians over their lives, Camp David. “We were exposed to the world, to politics, and yes, to Israelis,” he said.

“Resistance and politics must go together,” he said. “Yasir Arafat knew how to use one for the other. Now, there is no politics, no talks, so the sacrifices of the youth are wasted and empty.”

Ayman, however, like most members of his generation, cannot imagine living in peace next to an Israel that has ripped up his town, or becoming friends with an Israeli who has rolled over his schoolyard in a tank.

Which only indicates that their defeat is not yet sufficiently complete. The Germans and Japanese found a way to work with their enemies. To get to that point however they needed to be utterly crushed and face starvation.

Short of that they will have to live with hopelessness for probably another decade before the reality of the situation crushes them utterly.

Mr. Hussein says he has never spoken to an ordinary Israeli. “The only Israelis I see here are either settlers or soldiers,” he said. “They all have guns.”

He hates waiting on people and washing dishes, and says he is still looking for a decent job. But he is also looking to get out — to the United States, if possible, where his sister lives, but “almost any place,” he said, “where I can work and live a normal life.”

He is a Palestinian patriot, he insists. “But there’s no hope here,” he said. “You see the situation. It’s useless to think it will improve. You see it; it just gets worse.”

Just how bad can it get? Very bad even for those trying to leave.

Even the young fighters of the Abu Rish brigade have tried to leave. Muhammad and Saado, both 27, sold their weapons, took bank loans and paid $2,000 for visas and tickets from Cairo to Beijing on Austrian Airlines. They made it out of Gaza through the Rafah crossing with Egypt, but the Egyptians put them on a bus, locked the door and drove straight to the airport. For the four days before their departure, they said, the Egyptians then locked them into a crammed airport waiting room.

“A dog wouldn’t use the toilet,” Muhammad said. “They charged us 150 Egyptian pounds a day ($26.30) to use a seat, even the little kids. One Egyptian said, ‘Even a dead body has to pay.’ ” They bribed guards to bring them food and water.

The day of their flight, a Friday, they were brought to the departure hall. But an airlines security guard examined their documents and turned them away. Presumably, the visas were fake. “He looked at us as if we were evil,” Saado said. “There was no respect for us. I hate the Israelis, but I hate the Egyptians more.”

They were returned to the fetid waiting room, and a day later, when there was a busload, they were shipped back, first to El Arish. There they waited for days in an even more disgusting detention area, they said, until the Rafah crossing opened.

“When we finally got back to Gaza, I kissed the soil,” Muhammad said, laughing at his humiliation. “We said, ‘Gaza is paradise!’ ”

In time it is possible the Palestinian Arabs will figure out who their real enemies are. Their leaders and their Arab "brothers" who use them as cannon fodder.

Some want to leave at any cost.

What about those who would accuse you of giving up your rights in your land?

Mr. Hussein turned away. “I don’t care,” he finally said. “I want to live happily.”

First the myth dies. Then the struggle to uphold it even with lip service ends. Once that is over, and it could take a decade or more, new beginnings are possible. Provided they change their operating myth. Building must replace fighting as the motivating ideal. It is very difficult. Not impossible.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Condi Gets Angry With Abbas

Front Page Magazine reports that America's Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice read the riot act to Palestinian Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

During Condoleezza Rice’s three-hour meeting with Mahmoud Abbas last week in Ramallah, she reportedly “employed a threatening tone.” A Palestinian Authority official said that “We’ve never seen her in such a bad mood.”

Later at a press conference after meeting in a Jerusalem hotel with Abbas and Ehud Olmert, she “briskly walked into . . . the hotel’s main ballroom, gave a vacuous 90-second declaration and unceremoniously left, taking no questions.”

Rice was angry with Abbas for having earlier signed an agreement in Mecca that officially makes his Fatah movement a junior partner of Hamas. Abbas is said to have protested that “the only two options facing me were civil war or national unity, and I chose the second.” Rice apparently didn’t buy it.

I think he is right on that one. Since the agreement the Palestinian Civil War has damped down considerably. I believe in the last couple of weeks there have only been 5 deaths and they were attributed to family feuds probably triggered by earlier civil war violence.

Rice’s anger suggests that she has sincerely believed that Abbas is a constructive force who is worth American coddling and encouragement—even to the extent of funding, training, and equipping his militia. The anger, in other words, seems to be a case of empiricism catching up with delusion and denial. It must especially sting that it was the Saudis—whom Rice, the State Department, and the U.S. generally are always trying to impress by demonstrating their tenderness toward the Palestinians—who pressured Abbas into formally capitulating to Hamas and further enshrining the latter as the Palestinian standard-bearer.

It’s hard, after all, to see why Rice—ostensibly a conservative and not a fluttery-hearted liberal—got so disappointed in her Palestinian charge. There has always been much information available showing his lack of moderacy and total lack of interest in complying with the road map.

I never understood why Arafat got so much adulation (until Bush) from American Presidents. That guy promised peace in English and War in Arabic. A first rate double dealer. He got a Nobel Peace Prize too. I guess the Nobel Committee does't read Arabic. Lucky for Arafat. Not so lucky for the Israelis.

The Jerusalem Post reports on Condi's tough talk.

Even the most veteran officials in the Mukata "presidential" compound in Ramallah cannot recall such a tense meeting between a Palestinian leader and a senior US official as this week's encounter between PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

As Rice was walking out of the three-hour meeting, the officials rushed to phone Palestinian reporters to inform them that the talks were "very hard," and that the secretary of state had actually "rebuked" Abbas for signing the power-sharing Mecca agreement with Hamas earlier this month.

Reflecting the gloomy mood in Abbas's office, a top PA official said he did not rule out the possibility that Abbas would eventually end up being isolated in the Mukata like his predecessor, Yasser Arafat. "Rice employed a threatening tone during the talks with President Abbas," the official said. "We've never seen her in such a bad mood. She just doesn't understand that the president had no choice but to reach a deal with Hamas."

The official quoted Abbas as telling his aides after the Ramallah meeting that, by rejecting the Mecca deal, the US was "pushing the Palestinian people toward civil war."

America these days is adamant about not providing direct aid to the Palestinian governent. What money is given only goes to food and medical aid provided by NGOs or as we used to call them, charitable organizations.

Here is a report on the post summit press conference:

As reporters and advisers to the three leaders waited in the cavernous ballroom floor of the hotel, there was no overblown, Oslo-like sense of "feeling the flutter of history's wings." There was no expectation, no sense of moment, no anticipation of great diplomatic drama.

As a result, nobody was really disappointed that following nearly two-and-a-half hours of meetings, Rice briskly walked into a flagless, partitioned section of the hotel's main ballroom, gave a vacuous 90-second declaration and unceremoniously left, taking no questions. No one had expected anything more.

Which doesn't mean the summit was a complete flop. What it means is that a cold bucket of realism seems to have been tossed onto the Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic process. What it means is that there is a growing realization that not every impasse can be broken in disengagement-like fell swoops, not all deadlocks solved by wholesale Israeli confidence-building gestures.

What they mean is that Israeli capitulations will no longer be required to advance the "peace process". Which is a start towards realism.

Carl in Jerusalem has some thoughts.

H/T Israpundit

Driving A Wedge

Hamas is accusing the US of driving a wedge between moderates and militants. Except that the difference between moderates and militants is timetable not outcome.

A senior Hamas official on Monday accused the United States of "sowing sedition" among the Palestinians, hours after US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice held a rare summit with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

Moussa Abu Marzouk, Hamas's deputy political leader, told a Palestinian rally at the Yarmouk refugee camp near this Syrian capital that US policy was based on "sowing sedition among the peoples and states of the region through dividing the Middle East into two camps: A moderate camp and a non-moderate one."

The problem is that the "moderates" get no western money if they unite with the militants and they really want that money.

Saudi Arabia has promised the Palestinians $1 billion a year. However, the real cash flow seldom matches their promises. Thus western money would cushion any shortfall.

Palestinians Are At It Again

It looks like the Palestinian Civil War has resumed.

The Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) condemned Thursday an attack by unknown gunmen at the house of MP Yousef Alsherafi in northern Gaza Strip.

In a released statement, the PLC condemned the attack, reminding all Palestinian factions of abiding by the recent agreement on ending all forms of internal violence, reached in the Saudi Arabian city of Makkah two weeks ago.

The press release emphasized the need to swiftly form a national unity government in line with what has been agreed upon over the weekend between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his Prime Minister, Ismaily Haniya.

Meanwhile, various parts of the Palestinian territories saw over the past couple of days a number of incidents such as shootouts at the house of Palestinian planning minister in Nablus city, at some Fatah members in the Gaza Strip town of Bani Sohaila and a small-scale shootout between gunmen on the Salaheldin main road in central Gaza Strip.

If they keep this up some one is going to get killed.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Jumping Ship

It looks like the American government is jumping off the Abbas ship.

The United States has informed Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas that it will shun a future Hamas-Fatah coalition government because it will not explicitly recognize Israel, Abbas aides said Thursday.

That position would be a severe blow to Abbas, who is trying to reach a power-sharing deal to end Palestinian infighting and to get crippling international sanctions on the government lifted.

Last week, the two political rivals reached a coalition agreement in principle, and the Hamas-led government was to resign later Thursday to pave the way for a coalition government.

Until now, Washington had withheld judgment on the power-sharing deal.

Abbas received word of the new US position in a phone call from a senior US State Department official late Wednesday, the aides said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the issue. A US diplomat then delivered the same message to Abbas in person Thursday, the aides said.

That has got to hurt. No amount of "National Unity" fakery is going to work until the Palestinians agree unequivocally to the Quartet's main demands which are: the renunciation of violence, the recognition of Israel, and adherence to past peace agreements.

If Hamas does this they will get killed by their own people. If they don't do this they get strangled economically. Tough choice.

What the US is saying is that for the Palestinians "National Unity" is pointless.

I'm ticking off the hours until the civil war starts up again.

I just read an interesting bit that may explain why the US reserved comment on the deal until now. It looks like they waited until the "National Unity" government was formed.

By MOHAMMED DARAGHMEH, Associated Press Writer

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas announced the resignation of his Cabinet on Thursday, a formality that paved the way for the formation of a national unity government with Fatah . Haniyeh said a unity government would usher in a new era for the Palestinians. He stood next to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during the ceremony. Abbas then authorized Haniyeh to form a new coalition government.

Meanwhile aides to Abbas said Thursday that U.S. diplomats told them Washington plans to shun a future Hamas-Fatah coalition government because it will not explicitly recognize Israel.

If the U.S. decides to shun a new Hamas-Fatah government, it would be a severe blow to Abbas. The Fatah moderate leader has been trying to implement a power-sharing deal with Hamas to end Palestinian infighting and lift crippling international sanctions against the government.

Washington had previously withheld judgment on the power-sharing deal.

This looks suspiciously like a diplomatic double cross. Wait until "National Unity" was a done deal, then tell the parties involved it is not going to work.

There is a picture of Abbas at the first link in this piece. It looks like he is having a very bad case of acid reflux and forgot to bring his Tums. He is now in a fight for his life.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Dissension In The Ranks

Evidently Fatah is having trouble keeping the troops in line.

The Palestinian Authority has fired hundreds of security officers who refused to participate in the recent fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

It also looks like we are back at disunity as the order of the day.

Meanwhile, PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas announced that it was "premature" to talk about the resignation of his government. Haniyeh was expected to submit his resignation on Tuesday to pave the way for the formation of a Palestinian unity government. Haniyeh did not offer any reason for his decision to delay the resignation, sparking speculation of renewed tensions with Fatah.

Fatah officials admitted on Tuesday that they were facing "certain difficulties" in persuading the US and EU to accept the agreement that was reached with Hamas in Mecca last week.

And just what might those difficulties be? Might it have something to do with the fact that the "National Unity Government" will not agree to the renunciation of violence, the recognition of Israel, and adhering to past peace agreements? The US's and the EU's minimum requirement for recognizing the Hamas led government.

OK. That is the current political situation. We will get back to that later. Sometimes the Jerusalem Post writes as choppily as I do.

So what happened with the troops?

PA security officials told The Jerusalem Post that the officers were dismissed for "failing to fulfill their duties" during the armed clashes with Hamas militiamen. The officials described the behavior of the security officers as a "form of mutiny." They said most of the officers were fired after they refused to defend senior PA and Fatah officials who came under attack from Hamas.

In one incident, scores of officers refused to confront Hamas gunmen who besieged the home of Gen. Muhammad Ghraib of the Preventative Security Service in the northern Gaza Strip for eight hours before killing him.

The fired officers belonged to the Preventative Security Service, Military Intelligence and Force 17.

According to the officials, the officers are suspected of sympathizing with Hamas and the Popular Resistance Committees, an alliance of various armed groups in the Gaza Strip.

Taking their pay from one side while secretly helping the other? It really has to frost you when people don't honor their contracts. Oh? They are Palestinians? Never mind.

Palestinian President Abbas has put off giving a "National Unity" speech. That is funny. I thought they had that all sewn up in Mecca a few days ago. Sewn up with a billion dollars of Saudi thread. It appears the sewing was not that great and the thread is unraveling. Remember what your mother told you. Don't pull on that thread. The whole garment will unravel.

By Wafa Amr

RAMALLAH, West Bank, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas abruptly put off an address he was due to give on Thursday about a new unity government and an official said on Wednesday the delay was due to a dispute with Hamas.

Abbas had been expected to promote the deal in a speech to Palestinians before heading to the Gaza Strip to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader who is supposed to lead the new unity government agreed in Mecca.

Abbas adviser Nabil Abu Rdainah told Palestinian television the president would give his speech after the Gaza talks.

Some Hamas lawmakers said Haniyeh would not step down until he and Abbas, the moderate Fatah leader, had finalised several unresolved issues in the Saudi-brokered deal including naming an interior minister and deputy prime minister.

"Hamas has made several unacceptable conditions which cannot be implemented. The Mecca agreement cannot be re-interpreted and must be implemented immediately without any conditions," a Palestinian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Evidently it was not just a pull of a thread. Some one got their chain yanked.

So what do the ordinary folks in Gaza think?

After countless broken cease-fires, skepticism in the Palestinians territories remains strong.

"There is a lot of mistrust," said Bakr, the local Fatah chief. "If it (the Mecca deal) lasts for six months, it is a good agreement."

If it lasts six weeks he will be lucky. I give it six days. However, a word of caution, I have been known to be way too optimistic on these deals.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

War On The Horizon

The Palestinians have formed a national unity government to avoid a civil war. However, that will not end the internal Palestinian disagreements.

So how does a government wracked with internal disunity create a real national unity?

Start a war with a neighbor.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Give Us The Money - Or Else

The Palestinians will soon have the long awaited National Unity Government. It will not be renouncing violence, recognizing Israel, or accepting past signed peace agreements. The requirements for restarting aid to the Palestinian Arabs.

Recognition of Israel is one of three conditions set by the "Quartet" of international Middle East negotiators for lifting sanctions on the Hamas-led government. The Quartet also demands Hamas renounce violence and accept existing peace deals.

"The issue of recognition was not addressed at all (in Mecca)," Youssef said.

"In the platform of the new government there will be no sign of recognition (of Israel), regardless of the pressures the United States and the Quartet would exert."

The Quartet -- the United States, Russia, European Union, and the United Nations -- repeated its conditions on Friday for a resumption of aid, but withheld judgment on whether the new government met those conditions.

Youssef said a continuation of the aid boycott imposed after Hamas trounced Fatah in elections last year could lead to more violence in Palestinian Territories.

In other words give us the money or we will continue killing each other. We need the money so we can focus our violent tendencies on the Israelis.

Well the Palestinians are on the verge of calling off their truce with Israel.

GAZA, Feb. 10 (Xinhua) -- A senior leader of Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) called on Palestinian factions on Saturday to revoke ceasefire with Israel in response to the excavation works near al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem.

"The Israeli occupation understands nothing but rockets," said Nezzar Rayan, who also urged militant groups to "respond to enemy's violations."

Funny thing is that despite the "truce", rocket attacks on Israel never stopped.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

A Little Mistake

In so many ways this is Sarajevo 1914 all over again, on a much smaller scale. Mistrust and misunderstanding lead to war.

The wave of killings in Gaza on Thursday of last week was sparked by a suspicion: Hamas members feared that containers Israel allowed to enter Gaza held weapons for the Presidential Guard. They fired on the trucks, killing four members of the Guard, and Gaza once again entered a lethal whirlpool: 30 dead and more than 200 wounded.

No rifle or bullet was displayed for the TV cameras, which made it clear to everyone that Hamas propagandists either lied or relied on false information. The containers held only routine equipment, not weapons, for the Presidential Guard.

So far the sides have not seriously attacked each other for about two or three days.

I wonder if the pattern will be spasms of violence followed by a few weeks regrouping and then another spasm? If we see this again then the period can be estimated.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Dropping Boxes Of Ammo And Small Arms

I had been thinking of doing a piece on the small arms trade in Gaza when commenter mdmhvonpa nudged me along with this comment to Vengeance:

Hatfields and McCoys ... swell. Perhaps we should just start dropping boxes of ammo and small arms into 'Palestine' to hurry this up.

We have a better deal going than that. They are paying for the stuff.

RAMALLAH - A loud siren wails in the main street of Ramallah as the ambulance races to the nearby hospital. The casualty inside the vehicle is a teenage Palestinian who received two bullets to his chest during clashes among rival armed militia.

In a separate incident, a number of disgruntled armed young men showered the Daraghmeh store with scores of bullets in Ramallah’s commercial district. The fire engulfed the store’s interior, resulting in losses totaling USD 450,000.

At the entrance of a well-established restaurant in the city, a big sign reads “No hand guns allowed on the premises.”

As ammunition is readily available through black market middlemen, the sounds of bullets are heard frequently across the city. In a Pavlovian response, the citizens of Ramallah run into hiding as soon as the bullets start flying, their daily life controlled by the will of the gunmen.

So what is the market like?

“In the West Bank, the weapon pipeline is the Israeli gangs. They sell their weapons to Palestinian counterparts, who in return sell them to armed groups and private customers,” the officer says.

The Israeli army spokesman replies that “this accusation is baseless.” Israel has expressed its concerns over the issue of weapon smuggling several times during meetings with Palestinian officials, he adds.

Selling weapons in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is an extremely lucrative business, because of the amount of cash they generate.

“This business is flourishing due to internal clashes; it’s simply a matter of supply and demand,” says Hamdi Al- Ashgar, owner of a jewelry store in the middle of the Gaza Strip.

“To purchase a weapon, all one has to show is interest. Arms merchants are ready to provide you with whatever you want: M16s, hunting rifles, bullets, Kalashnikovs, mortars and spare parts,” Al-Ashgar adds.”

Prices have gone down and nowadays owning a gun in the Palestinian areas is not anymore the sole privilege of the armed groups.

“You can have the famous Kalashnikov for USD 1,500, and a Chinese-made rifle for USD 1,000. While digging a tunnel in Gaza costs USD 100,000, renting one could climb up to USD 10,000 per a day,” Ashgar says.

In the Gaza Strip, nearly four out of five people are armed, whereas in the West Bank two out of five are armed with different kind of rifles and pistols, according to an officer of the Preventive Security Forces, on condition of anonymity.

I did a little searching and found a Kalashnikov for $335. Considerably below the prices charged in Gaza. Good profit indeed.

The Israelis must have trouble at those anti-smuggling meetings keeping a straight face while denouncing the smuggling.

With prices pretty much standardized there has to be a lot of competition in the market. Figuring out how much it costs to keep the civil war going is pretty much a job for accountants.

Muhammad is a young journalist working for a local radio station affiliated with Fatah. In recent weeks, he's gotten several death threats.

"In a place like Gaza, that sort of menace isn't to be taken lightly, so the station's security guards and staff are armed with hand grenades and machine guns.”

Muhammad says he carries a handgun and keeps an AK-47 assault rifle at home.

“In such a lawless context, it's normal for journalists to carry guns," he explains. "Some accuse us of pouring gasoline on the fire and fueling the confrontations between Fatah and Hamas. But I am broadcasting the problems of my society and the Palestinian street.”

In Gaza, the arms are coming from all over the world, being transported through the desert to Egypt and to Gaza through the tunnels in Rafah.

After the Israelis pulled out from the Gaza Strip, the number of tunnels for smuggling weapons and other contraband has more than doubled, evolving into an underground maze clawed out of Gaza’s soft soil.

The largely unhindered weapons influx also heightens the threat of civil war, instability, and tribalism.

There are usually about 20 tunnels in use at any one time along the border.

It is my opinion that American and Israeli policy for the Palestinians is for the time being: civil war, instability, and tribalism.

When they have had enough they will either leave or ask the Israelis to rule over them.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Stocking Up

Confidence in the latest cease fire in Gaza is in short supply. So naturally people are stocking up on food.

(IsraelNN.com) Gaza regional Arabs are stockpiling food and basic goods in anticipation of another outbreak of violence following talks in Mecca between Fatah and Hamas leaders on establishing a unity government. Street vendor Mazen Kheil said he has been selling a large amount of dried goods.

The death toll in the intra-Arab violence rose again Wednesday when a six-year-old boy died of his wounds while gunmen continued to reinforce rooftop and street positions. Fatah militia men fortified the compound of Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas with cement blocks.

They should be using sand bags. Cement spalls and creates shrapnel.

So far the only thing they are united on is fighting each other.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Vengeance

The Palestinian Civil War is going to be going on for a while if this is any indication.

GAZA, Feb 7 (KUNA) -- Dagmash family, one of the biggest Palestinian families in Gaza, has claimed responsibility for the killing of two activists from the Izziddeen Al-Qassam Brigades, military arm of Hamas, last night.

A family spokesman said "The killing was to avenge two family members killed by Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza almost two month ago." Ahmed Dagmash told a local radio station in Gaza "The family of Dagmash claims responsibility for the killing of Mohammad Deeb Abu Kersh (Abu Musab) and Mohammad Abu Namous, two Qassam activists, for killing, in cold blood, Ashraf and Mahmoud Dagmash in the Sabra district, central Gaza, about two months ago." "Targeting the two leaders was meant to avenge our sons killed by Abu Kersh and Abu Namous," he said, threatening more acts of revenge.

This of course is a reversion to Tribalism. A condition that precludes nation building. Once the revenge killings get well underway there is no way to stop them except the extinction of families.

In terms of the larger political scene I see this as the prelude to massive migrations by the Palestinians to any place civilized.

Unfortunately they have a tendency to bring their uncivilized ways with them. That sort of behavior has gotten them kicked out of Kuwait when the Iraqis were kicked out in '91. Kicked out of Iraq When Saddam was deposed. In fact they get kicked or kicked out of a lot of places due a lack of civilized ways.

Update: 08 Feb '07 1549z

Here is a bit more on the Dagmash or Damish clan.

The Damish clan, a large family from the southern Gaza town of Khan Younish thought to be involved in organized crime, claimed responsibility for the shooting, saying it was avenging the killing of two of its members two months ago by Hamas security forces.

The opposition Fatah movement stressed that it was not involved in the overnight shooting and said the killing was not related to the armed clashes between Fatah and the ruling Hamas.

So this could have been strictly business, not politics. Swell. Just swell.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Palestinian Civil War Watch - 15

I suppose we should get the optimism out of the way first. The Mayor of Gaza thinks the fighting won't last because it is brother fighting brother.

The factor preventing an all-out civil war in Gaza is that the Palestinians fighting against each other come from the same families, the mayor of Gaza City said.

In many cases there are families in which each sibling supports a different political faction.

“They might fight in the streets but at night they go to the same home,” Mayor Majid Abu Ramadan told The Media Line. “We’re counting on these family ties to prevent people from fighting.”

Abu Ramadan is counting on what he called the silent majority of the Palestinians to urge the fighting parties to lay down their arms.

He said there was an increasing movement in Gaza where families were calling their sons out of the fighting factions.

What about feuds between families? I covered some of that in Radio Wars.

Well that is the good news. The rest is just another depressing day in Gaza. The Gazans have rocketed visiting New York City Council members. You can't buy the kind of publicity they will get from that effort.

JERUSALEM (AP) — Visiting New York City Council members got more than a description of how Israelis deal with almost daily rocket attacks from Gaza on Tuesday. They experienced one.

Council Speaker Christine Quinn said the delegation of 11 was in the office of Eli Moyal, the mayor of Sderot, an Israeli town of 20,000 just outside Gaza, talking about the security situation. Then the town alarm went off, warning of an incoming rocket.

"The mayor stood up and said, 'There's a rocket coming, everybody has to leave,'" she said.

No injuries were reported.

Hamas and Fatah are again trading fire. I wonder who made the most profit?

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Hamas and Fatah security officials traded fire at Gaza's border with Egypt on Tuesday as Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh passed through on his way to reconciliation talks between his Hamas movement and the rival Fatah group in Saudi Arabia, witnesses said.

There is a really nice big piture of Haniyeh with the article. He does not have a happy face.

Haniyeh, who was in a VIP hall and not in the immediate area of the firefight, crossed to Egypt unharmed, they said. He had arrived at the border crossing under heavy guard after traveling along a route lined with hundreds of Hamas gunmen on foot and in jeeps.

Although Haniyeh expressed confidence that the reconciliation talks would end months of Palestinian infighting, Tuesday's gunbattle was an ominous sign for the meeting in Mecca, which analysts have said could be the two sides' last chance to avert civil war.

The 10-minute gunbattle at the border terminal caused no injuries, said the witnesses, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of safety concerns.

So on the way to peace talks they have a nice little battle. Good omen.

Fatah has siezed a six story Baptist Church. Has Jimmy Carter been informed?

A Gaza church was seized by the Palestinian Fatah group this weekend during one of the deadliest fighting in nearly two months.

Palestinian Authority police broke into the Gaza Baptist Church when church leaders refused to hand over the building key on Feb. 2, reported Open Doors. The police took positions on the sixth floor using the church as a watch point.

Church pastor Hanna Massad described the crisis as “the worst situation we ever went through in Gaza.”

Massad and congregants fear that if PA police fire at Hamas militants from the church top then Hamas militants will retaliate and the church building will be severely damaged.

“Christians and Muslims in Gaza are caught in the crossfire,” said Open Doors USA president/CEO Dr. Carl Moeller in a statement Monday. “And it’s getting worse…It is so vital that the Gaza Baptist Church remains open so ministry can be carried out to those who are even now more marginalized.”

Christians have been leaving "Palestine" in droves. Bethlehem is now minority Christian.

And now for real murder and mayhem. A Palestinian news source reports one dead and three injured.

The Al Qassam brigades, the armed wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, said that one of its fighters was killed, and three others were injured, after being attacked by gunmen in the center of Gaza City.

They seem to have a real nice photoshopped picture of some Palestinian gunmen. I guess the stock photos are not dramatic enough.

The Palestinians have finally killed a Palestinian they have been trying to kill for a while. Abu Karsh.

Hamas blamed Fateh for the attack and said that Fateh gunmen fired at Mohammad Dieb Abu Karsh, 23, and killed him, three other members were injured, one seriously.

Eyewitnesses reported that Abu Karsh was driving his car near Al Saraya compound in Gaza city when gunmen opened fire at him.

They have been trying to kill him since at least May 16th of last year.

No doubt practice makes perfect.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Radio Wars

It appears that the Palestinians involved in the civil war are using some pretty harsh language against each other.

The recent fighting between Hamas and Fatah did not just play out in the streets of the Gaza Strip. The rival groups also pummeled each other over the airwaves, calling each other's fighters "mercenary death squads," "child killers" and even "Zionists."

The harsh rhetoric, coupled with the stations' ability to quickly rally their armed supporters in the streets, has led to fears that the local disc jockeys could fan the flames of the recent violence into a full-blown of civil war.

"If we wanted, we could burn down Gaza," said a smiling Ibrahim Daher, director of Aksa Radio, the voice in Gaza of the Islamic militant group Hamas.

He said it with a smile. That must be a real comfort to the people of Gaza. It must be a comfort to see them call each other Zionists. So they are all against Zionists. Nice to see they have national unity on that point. Their problem is that half the Palestinians may be Zionists too and no one can decide which half. This will require some sorting out.

With a lull in the recent infighting, the radio stations have toned down as well. But with no political solution in sight, the radios may yet wage another battle.

"Radio is in every house, every car and every street. It can cause a revolution or quell one. That's a dangerous role," said Salah al-Masri, director of Al-Quds Radio, funded by the radical Islamic Jihad.

"I bet you, in a few hours, I can orchestrate a protest. The question is what kind. We can launch a protest against the Israeli occupation, or at (Abbas), or fire rockets," he said.

Think if they just applied this power to something useful. Nah. Why waste the effort even thinking about it? Not going to happen. At least not for a very long time.

AP reporter Sarah El Deeb has been covering Gaza's factional fighting, often pinned down indoors by gunfire and venturing outside during periods of lull. Here are her notes from the sidelines:

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) — Never mind the almost daily cease-fire announcements. The music played on the radio stations of Hamas and Fatah is a much better guide to war and peace.


When both Hamas's Al Aqsa radio and Fatah's Al Shabab station played "Today is the day of rage" simultaneously a few days ago, it was pretty clear the guns would not fall silent. At times of heavy clashes, the playlists also include Islamic marching songs or odes to legendary Fatah founder Yasser Arafat.

When the two sides withdraw their forces from time to time, songs about Jerusalem are popular, as a unifying theme. Lebanese singer Fairouz is a favorite on Al Shabab, as a demonstration of secular nationalist sentiment.

Radio broadcasts also air political statements and take calls from listeners trapped at home. Trying to lower the enemy's morale, Al Shabab reported that scores of Hamas militiamen had defected. Al Aqsa Radio quickly retaliated with a similar report.

When a new cease-fire was announced Sunday, both stations broadcast the same phone number for listeners to report violations to a police operations room with Hamas and Fatah observers. They received dozens of calls on the first day. And resumed playing songs of national unity.

News reports. Reports of enemy action. Psychological warfare. Boosting morale. Sounds like American radio during WW2.

Note: I had a Palestinian report on the joint operations room in Cease Fire Holding. I also noted in that report that there were some hot heads who would not give up the fight. Murders needed to be avenged.

Here is some more on the hot heads.

After nightfall, thunderous gunfire frequently erupted outside a building housing visiting Associated Press staffers in Gaza City, with some of the shooting coming from a nearby building.

It was more than just a fight between Hamas and Fatah.

The Bakr clan, clamoring for revenge, was after the killer of a 17-year-old member, Mahmoud Bakr, who died in the crossfire last week. For four nights, dozens of masked Bakr men, armed and in black uniforms, pinned down a dozen Hamas gunmen — whom they blamed for Mahmoud's death — on a rooftop.

The fighting is increasingly about settling personal scores, and the element of revenge will make it harder to enforce a cease-fire, even if Hamas and Fatah are to reach an elusive power-sharing agreement.

The grieving father, Anan Bakr, a member of the Fatah-linked Preventive Security Service, said the battle has become personal. "In our tradition, in our religion, whoever kills must be killed, even after time passes," he said.

In It's A Family Affair I covered one blood feud. Obviously there are others. With 70 or 80 dead so far there is a lot of revenging to be done. And those revenge killings will require more killings. The Hatfields and McCoys.

Shin Bet security service head Yuval Diskin said he thought it was not in Israel's best interest to get involved in Gaza while Fatah and Hamas were fighting each other.

He does point out the devolution of the fighing from a nationalist struggle to a tribal struggle.

The major problem facing Israel in the territories, Diskin believes, is the collapse of government in the PA. This is particularly evident in the Gaza Strip, where "there is a return to the clan. Clan loyalty is now more evident than loyalty to any group."

The clan influence, Diskin said, is directly linked with the desire to seek revenge for the dead from the recent internecine clashes, and it poses an obstacle to reaching a cease-fire, even if the leadership of Fatah and Hamas appears to be interested in an accord.

This return to Tribalism and the unwavering desire for Israel's destruction which Diskin also goes into, portends a future of fighting for the Israelis. With any kind of luck the Palestinians will destroy their own societies without much direct military help from the Israelis.

Cease Fire Holding

The ceasefire in Gaza and the West Bank are holding with continuous violations.

GAZA, Palestine, February 5,2007 (IPC+ Agencies) - -Hamas and Fateh movements traded accusations over violating the ninth agreement of halting internecine fighting while the co-room continues to exert efforts to fully hold the agreement effect on the ground as tenuous and attentive calm overwhelmed Gaza Yesterday.

Even though the co-room, set up between Fateh and Hams under the auspice of Egyptian security delegation could manage to solve many controversial problems but some violations were occurred in several parts throughout Gaza Strip.

The gunmen have left higher residential building apartments and dismantle roadblocks and they exchanged hostages. Local police took up positions at the main intersections.

Tawfik Abu Khousa of Fateh in Gaza said that the co-room between Fateh and Hamas solved many disputable mattersand it still work unceasingl to firm up the agreement on the ground.

He also asserted that efforts are still being made to end up the hostages from both sides as many more are still being hold.

"The problem lie in the political echelon of Hamas whom lost their control on some of its members in the field, " Abu Khousa said, asserting that some people of Hamas do not want a halt to the internecine fighting.

No kidding.

So it appears that except for numerous and continuous violations of the cease fire it is holding. Isn't that how they play the game with the Israelis?

Damascus-based head of the Hamas political bureau, Khaled Meshal called Sunday both factions to cease fighting for the benefit of all Palestinians.

"I call on all our brothers in the Palestinian areas ... to shoulder their responsibilities. We want a lasting calm between us. We should preserve our blood. Dialogue is the only way to resolve our differences," Meshaal said

You know, if he keeps talking like that it could ruin his whole war plan with Israel. Once you start talking negotiations who knows where it will lead?

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Palestinian Civil War Watch - 14

There was a ceasefire called last night, but nobody came.

Less than a day after another ceasefire agreement was attained between Fatah and Hamas, on Saturday morning violence between the factions erupted anew, and eight Palestinian were wounded.

Severe gun battles erupted on the streets of Gaza City, nearby President Mahmoud Abbas’ office and the Palestinian security headquarters in city center. Witnesses reported that gunmen from both camps were positioned in the area and there was heavy gunfire.

In an attempt to establish control, Palestinian security forces set up roadblocks in Gaza City and at various strategic points throughout the Strip.

Saturday morning eight people were wounded, one of them severely, in the clashes between the factions.

During the morning hours members of the Fatah-linked Palestinian presidential guard raided and vandalized the Agriculture Ministry in Gaza City, which is under Hamas authority, in search of documents, weapons and suspects.

I call this phase the war of the buildings.

So far Fatah has torched a Hamas University and Hamas has recprocated. However, Hamas is up one radio station. We shall see how long that lasts.

Update: 04 Feb '07 1313z

One person was killed in Saturday's fighting.

Hamas and Fatah gunmen fought in Gaza City's beachfront neighborhoods and around security compounds early Sunday, ignoring renewed truce appeals and Arab mediation efforts. One man was killed, raising the death toll from three days of fighting to 26, the AP reported.

Latest reports are that the cease fire is not holding. Heh.

GAZA (Reuters) - Mortar bombs exploded near the Gaza offices of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday and rival gunmen exchanged fire in the streets, ignoring another shaky truce in the factional war between Fatah and Hamas.

The fighting has brought life to a near-standstill for residents of the narrow coastal strip, home to 1.5 million Palestinians.

Some Gaza residents ventured onto the streets for the first time in days to find masked gunmen manning checkpoints and most stores closed despite the latest ceasefire deal.
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"We pray to God that the fighting, which only served Israel, will stop once and for all," Abu Mohammad said, standing outside his Gaza City home.

A hospital official said two members of Abbas's presidential guard, a force that receives U.S.-funded training and non-lethal equipment, died on Sunday from gunshot wounds suffered in fighting over the weekend.

The latest deaths raised to 27 the number of Palestinians killed in factional clashes in the last four days. Few expected the truce, announced on Saturday, to last.

You can count me among the many who predicted there would be no truce.

Hamas has a high level hostage.

Tensions between Fatah and Hamas were again running high in the Gaza Strip following the kidnapping of Fatah leader Muhammad Dahlan's nephew by Hamas gunmen on Sunday afternoon.

According to reports, Ashraf Dahlan was stopped at a Hamas checkpoint when the incident occurred. Currently there is no information of his whereabouts, nor have any demands been issued for his release.

Earlier Sunday, Hamas and Fatah gunmen fought in Gaza City's beachfront neighborhoods and around security compounds, ignoring renewed truce appeals and Arab mediation efforts. One man was killed, raising the death toll from three days of fighting to 26.

That is down somewhat from the rate during their previous clash where about 10 a day were killed. It could be random fluctuation or changes in strategies and tactics.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Gaza Explodes

The Palestinans are having fun in Gaza terrorizing each other.

Ibrahim Barzak, Canadian Press, Published: Friday, February 02, 2007

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) - Hamas fighters blew up a pro-Fatah radio station in Gaza, ambulances were caught in the crossfire and gunmen exchanged heavy fire in deserted streets as a new wave of factional fighting raged Friday throughout the chaotic coastal territory.

The resurgent violence, which killed four people Friday and a total of 10 since Thursday, destroyed a brief truce between Fatah and Hamas and forced thousands of Gazans to huddle in their homes to escape the crossfire.

I see this as democracy in action, where the rule is: be careful who you vote for. Your life may depend on it.

In a symbol that the two sides had returned to open warfare, their respective radio stations stopped playing songs of national unity and broadcast songs about armed struggle and fighting the enemy.

Man, this is way worse than the talk radio wars in America where we trust Arbitron to tell us who the winners and losers are. In Gaza, if your station is still on the air you haven't lost yet.

On Friday morning, 50 officers from Abbas' presidential guard surrounded the Hamas-led Interior Ministry and exchanged fire with Hamas gunmen guarding the building. Outside of Gaza City, Hamas militants launched mortar shells at a Fatah training base in an attack that wounded 30 recruits, security officials said.

The roads of Gaza were nearly empty, sealed off by makeshift roadblocks of rubble and garbage. Only masked security officers, some with hand grenades clipped to their ammunition vests, were visible in the streets.

Fighting in northern Gaza killed two Fatah-affiliated security officers and two Hamas gunmen early Friday, according to hospital officials and Hamas.

Overnight, rival gunmen fought in the streets with mortar shells, rocket-propelled grenades and heavy calibre machine-guns. Dr. Muawiya Hassanin of the Palestinian Health Ministry said Friday morning that 120 people had been wounded since Thursday afternoon.

It is now about 1 PM local time (GMT +2) so the day is not over yet. Mortars, heavy machine guns and RPGs. Whew. You really have to keep your head down in conditions like that.

Late Thursday, hundreds of Fatah gunmen raided a Hamas stronghold, the Islamic University in Gaza City. Flames were seen leaping from two of the university buildings.

Destroying an Islamic University? How irreligious.

The violent Islamic Jihad called for an urgent meeting to resume truce talks. The mufti of Gaza called for a truce, saying Muslims shedding Muslim blood is "taboo."

Evidently neither Hamas nor Fatah has much respect for religion. Truce talks? They have been doing those for months. Always with the same results. Agreements are reached and then fighting resumes. Whatever.

Update: 02 Feb '07 1252z

It is now about 3 PM local time in Gaza and the body count is up to eight. Another two hours until dark.

Eight Palestinians were killed, including two children, in ferocios fighting Friday between Hamas and Fatah gunmen.

Also among the dead were a Palestinian Authority intelligence commander, his bodyguard, three Fatah-affiliated security officers and a 38-year-old woman, who was killed by a stray bullet in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya. The two children killed were aged eight and five, health officials said.

At least 14 people have been killed and 182 people have been wounded - 19 of them critically - in the fighting since Thursday afternoon, the Health Ministry reported.

Health officials said Gaza was running out of blood and appealed for blood donors. Ambulances had come under fire and a ricocheting bullet lightly wounded one rescue worker, they said. A Red Crescent hospital near a security base in Gaza City was hit in cross fire and its windows and gates were pocked by bullet holes.

The last round of fighting killed 50 or 60 people in five days. So I'd say they have restored the previous intensity.

What you want to watch for is the number of deaths per day (or hour depending). The greater the death rate the more intense the fight. That is obvious. The more intense the fight the longer it goes on. Not so obvious. Various estimates can be made based on the size of the forces involved. The greater the numbers in a fight the longer it goes on. I don't have a metric yet for the proportions. What we can expect from the current rate is at least five days of fighting.

Update: 03 Feb '07 0030z

Reporst as of 19:30 02 Feb local time say 11 were killed today.

A Hamas spokesman announced late Friday afternoon that a new Gaza cease-fire agreement has been reached following violent battles between Hamas and Fatah gunmen which left 11 dead over the course of the day.

Other accounts have a higher number.

Web posted at: 2/3/2007 2:53:11
Source ::: Agencies

gaza • Fighting between rival Palestinian factions escalated across Gaza yesterday, killing at least 17 people, as Hamas overran compounds used by President Mahmoud Abbas’s forces and two major universities were set ablaze.

Meanwhile, President Mahmoud Abbas and exiled Hamas supremo Khaled Meshaal yesterday declared a ceasefire between their feuding factions in the Gaza Strip.

Shortly after the ceasefire was announced, unknown gunmen opened fire on the motorcade of the Egyptian envoy to the Gaza Strip, who has been at the heart of mediation efforts between Abbas’s Fatah and the ruling Hamas faction.

There were no injuries in the incident which cast doubts on the chances of the ceasefire, which came three days after the declaration of another truce.

Yep this is going to go on for a while.

If 17 is the true number let us estimate how long the fighting might last. If the equation for time of fighting is Casualty Rate (CR) times a Days of War constant (DW) to some exponential factor N then an equation for days of fighting might look like Days of Fighting (DF) = D*CR^N. If N = 1.5 then for 10 casualties/day = 5 days of fighting - Dw would equal 0.158114. DF = DW_1.5*CR^N. If N = 2 then DW = 0.050000. If N = 2.5 then DW = 0.015811.

So let us plug in some numbers and see what happens. With a casualty rate - CR - of 17 we can make some estimates.

N = 1.5 DF = .158114 * (17)^1.5 = 11.0 days (aprox)
N = 2.0 DF = .050000 * (17)^2.0 = 14.5 days (aprox)
N = 2.5 DF = .015811 * (17)^2.5 = 18.8 days (aprox)

So if any of this makes any sense we could see 11 to 19 more days of fighting based on the latest casualties.

BTW the above exercise is an example of what operations reserarch people do.

Cross Posted at Classical Values