Commenter Nemesis (Owen Johnson) has published part III of his series on the Reasons for Optimism (parts I and II reviewed at A Return to Those Thrilling Days of Yesteryear....) in this third section he asks in his own round about way - how is the alpha male chosen in human society. Is the alpha male self selected - though war, coup, assasination, poison intirgue, etc. or is s/he selected by the people with the usual murderous impulses dampened if not eliminated? It is an age old question. The usual answer is natural selection. Election is in fact unnatural selection. Natural selection has predominated over human history. However, the method of murder does not maximize the productive capacities of human societies because of the insecurity of the system. Cuba these days is a prime example. There is no definite method for replacing the alpha male except tooth and claw. This makes everyone nervous when thorough death or disability the time for change arrives. The already lowered productivity of command and control societies is reduced further by uncertainty.
Nemesis discusses the failure of various unity movements in the islamic world. Under emphasised is why that unity is necessary: the low productivity of the Islamic world. Without oil to finance their wars, their influence on world affairs would be microscopic. The intelectuals of the Islamic world of course have been drawn to the command and control political inventions of the West. Marxism, Communism, Socialism, National Socialism, etc. because of the command and control beliefs that they grow up with. The thinking being that "scientific" command and control would be an improvement over the whims of the ruler. This has not proven to be significant in the long run when such societies were forced to compete with societies based on elected rulers (i.e. market based political decisions) and a market oriented economy (market based economic decisions).
In the end all war making capacity is based on economic capacity. Petrolium economies being parasitic can never match the economic capacity of the oil users. In addition, it turns out that petrolium economies are prone to command and control solutions beacuse they do not have to be over all productive. They don't have to earn their oil. Oil income can cover a multitude of sins. However, this is not possible indefinitely. So oil economies are in effect doubly cursed. Add in a belief system that encourages command and control thinking and you have a society thrice cursed. Iran these days is a prime example of that where the government has a plan to replace all secular university teachers with true believers. This will only further weaken an already weak society. Given the whipsaw nature of oil prices any significant downturn in the price of oil will put great strains on any oil economy that bases current spending on oil income. Say Iran for instance.
The whole point of the current exercise is to prevent the world of the Three Conjectures from manifesting. Nemesis looks into where Iranian Nukes might lead us. An ugly place.
I'm leaving out his main premise - which I agree with - that this phase of the war is designed to pick the Islamic alpha male to lead Islam to victory. The pokes at the west are merely to find a general or leader who can be victorious. Once that leader is found the war will get serious. Right now Iran is the main contender, but its position as Persian and Shia creates natural antagonisms. Which is why no matter what actually happened in Lebanon, Hizbollah won the war. Because if Hizballah lost the war Islam hasn't found the strong horse.
Nemesis has part IV up. I will get to it shortly. In the mean time read part III (and I and II if you missed them). Excellent work.
H/T Carol Herman for the heads up on Part III
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