A Chance

Thirty seconds of political truth. And it may just sell some autos.

H/T Libertarian Republican.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Catching The Wave

Sounds pretty amazing to me. According to Carnot the efficiency of an ideal engine is 1 - Tc/Th. Where Tc is the exhaust temperature and Th is the burning temperature (this is somewhat simplified). The temperatures are absolute (i.e. Kelvin scale in the metric system). The Wave Engine according to some designs operates at a peak temperature of 1070°K with an exhaust at 300°K (room temperature roughly). So what is the ideal efficiency for such an engine? 1 - (300/1070) multiplied by 100 to get percent. And the answer is almost 72%. So a practical realization giving 60% efficiency is not unreasonable. That is about 83% of ideal. Not bad. In fact very good.

Some geeks (not as geeky as me) have a few words to say.

Mueller envisions his wave disc motor powering a generator, making it an ultra-light ultra-efficient hybrid electric vehicle. That’s a lot of ultras, but Mueller says he has the numbers to back it up. The wave disc apparently uses 60% of its fuel for propulsion, compared to 15% of fuel used for propulsion in conventional engines. And because the wave disc powered cars would be much lighter — perhaps 20% lighter — the fuel efficiency is even greater.

This all might seem very pie-in-the-sky, and that’s quite understandable. However, Mueller’s team has received $2.5 million in federal dollars from the Advanced Research Projects Administration – Energy (ARPA-E), which will be put towards creating a 25kw engine perhaps as early as next year. According to Mueller, that’s enough power to run an SUV.

I’m hoping Mueller’s checked his math on this, because I am very excited to have a car running on something as efficient as it is elegant.

Well I checked the math and it doesn't look out of the question. Some folks from Warsaw, Poland and Zurich, Switzerland [pdf] have checked the math with computerized flow simulations and think it looks pretty good. The concept goes back to at least 1906. So it is not a new idea. What is new is this particular realization. And of course we have computers for simulation and automated milling machines to make prototypes and small production volumes. Things not available in 1906.

Of course the engine is just the beginning. Once that is proved you have to design the whole hybrid drive train. And then you have to wrap an automobile around it. I don't expect to see them on the market as a production vehicle for about ten years. Unless some really big money (or the Japanese) get behind it.

Some more places to visit to get a handle on the technology:

Daily Tech

Green Cars

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Not A Religion

I have been discussing the necessity of hate for a while. So it didn't surprise me to see a new religion developing around this concept.

American cars suck. With me, it's a mantra. I passed it along to my children in lieu of religion.

Not a religion you say? Just give it time.

H/T Instapundit

China Beats Detroit

It looks like America will get two new hybrid auto companies from China.

A startup car company run by a Chinese businessman unveiled four prototype vehicles on Tuesday that it hopes to build at a proposed multibillion-dollar car plant in northwestern Mississippi.

GreenTech Automotive Inc. planned to break ground later in the day on what officials said would be a $6.5 billion plant on 1,500 acres Tunica County, south of Memphis, Tenn. The company said it has an option to buy more land as needed.

There was a little dust up among the original partners and now there are two car companies where there was one.

GreenTech was formerly known as Hybrid Kinetic Automotive Corp., but that changed after Wang and Yeung split. The men fought for control of the company before reaching a settlement in July. Both said they will move forward with plans to build 1 million cars a year, though Yeung is now planning to build a plant in Alabama.

Yeung and Wang fought over the terms of their "handshake" business deal and whether they were partners or whether Wang worked for Yeung, according to filings in U.S. District Court in northern Mississippi. Each man accused the other of dubious business practices.

A messy divorce no doubt.

Did you notice that both companies are building plants in the South? Far away from union strangled Detroit. And did you notice that both Alabama and Mississippi are right to work states?

Look for the union label. And if you find one don't buy it. Or set up a plant where unions are strong. Government Motors and Crisis Motors show that unions are the kiss of death for business. Soon it will become evident that union contracts are also the kiss of death for government. Heh.

Ah. But that is not all. Unions and high costs are killing the movie business in California. Three movies got made in California last year. So where are the movies getting made? In right to work states mostly. See the comments at the link. Heh. Heh.

Electric Car - High Price - Short Range

Mitsubishi Motors is bringing out an electric car that will only cost $47,000 and only get 100 miles on a charge. That means at most a 40 mile round trip per day plus a reserve for mistakes and battery degradation over time.

Tokyo (AP) – Mitsubishi Motors Corp.'s electric vehicle is twice as expensive as popular hybrid cars by rivals Toyota and Honda, but Japan's No. 4 automaker said Friday the i-MiEV will help it survive increasingly intense global competition.

"With the electric vehicle, we will challenge global players," said Mitsubishi Motors President Osamu Masuko at a news conference where the company rolled out the new model.

The i-MiEV is powered solely by electricity, and can be recharged from a regular home socket. The four-seater vehicle can run up to 160 kilometers (100 miles) after charging seven hours at 200 volts.

"It is a zero-emission vehicle. It does not rely on oil, which is different from hybrid cars," Masuko said. A hybrid car switches between a gas engine and electric motor to boost mileage.

The price tag is also different. Mitsubishi's i-MiEV costs 4.59 million yen ($47,560), more than twice as much as Toyota Motor Corp.'s new Prius hybrid vehicle, which is just over 2 million yen, or Honda Motor Co.'s Insight, which starts at 1.89 million yen, the cheapest hybrid on the market.

Masuko acknowledged the high price is a major hurdle to encouraging people to buy the i-MiEV, which stands for Mitsubishi innovative electric vehicle. (The initial "i" doesn't have any particular meaning, the company says.)

"This is not the price that ordinary people can easily buy. But as we increase our production, we aim to cut the price below 2 million yen," he said without elaborating further.

Masuko noted i-MiEV buyers can receive hefty subsidies and pay no tax under a government program promoting the use of ecological vehicles. With the help of government subsidies, the i-MiEV costs 3.209 million yen, down 43 percent from the original price. The vehicle is also tax-free for three years.

Ah yes. The ever present subsidy. But they do have a business plan. They are selling the first 1,200 vehicles to the Japanese government. Customer of last resort? Well at least until they get the price down. And the range up.

And making fun of hybrids? At least with hybrids you can put gas in the tank and get home if your battery is low on charge.

Dog On A Ham Slicer

Watts Up With That is having a discussion of a Times Online review of the new Honda Insight. The Times review is a hoot.

Much has been written about the Insight, Honda’s new low-priced hybrid. We’ve been told how much carbon dioxide it produces, how its dashboard encourages frugal driving by glowing green when you’re easy on the throttle and how it is the dawn of all things. The beginning of days.So far, though, you have not been told what it’s like as a car; as a tool for moving you, your friends and your things from place to place.

So here goes. It’s terrible. Biblically terrible. Possibly the worst new car money can buy. It’s the first car I’ve ever considered crashing into a tree, on purpose, so I didn’t have to drive it any more.

The biggest problem, and it’s taken me a while to work this out, because all the other problems are so vast and so cancerous, is the gearbox. For reasons known only to itself, Honda has fitted the Insight with something called constantly variable transmission (CVT).

It doesn’t work. Put your foot down in a normal car and the revs climb in tandem with the speed. In a CVT car, the revs spool up quickly and then the speed rises to match them. It feels like the clutch is slipping. It feels horrid.

And the sound is worse. The Honda’s petrol engine is a much-shaved, built-for-economy, low-friction 1.3 that, at full chat, makes a noise worse than someone else’s crying baby on an airliner. It’s worse than the sound of your parachute failing to open. Really, to get an idea of how awful it is, you’d have to sit a dog on a ham slicer.

I have no dog in this fight. I earn a what little living I make from my modem and what little driving I do or is done for me is done in eight or ten year old cars. But seriously. If this is the coming Green Revolution America will begin to look like Cuba with a lot of 30 and 40 year old cars on the road. And what is that going to do for fuel economy or pollution? I predict nothing good.

No wonder Congress is considering a plan to pay to destroy serviceable used cars. And what will that do to pollution? Probably nothing good if you consider the energy and effort required to turn a scrapped car into a new one.

A functioning market economy is a system for minimizing costs and maximizing value. A functioning Congress is a system for maximizing costs and minimizing value. Too bad we are getting less market and more Congress.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

GM Announces Electric Car Of The Future

Laugh all you want but this is no joke. The article linked is about batteries for cars.

Anyway, this battery issue — and many like it — hasn’t stopped GM from announcing yet another Car Of The Future. Only this time they’ve partnered themselves up with Segway.

You have got to be fucking kidding me.

The interesting thing here [is] its vehicle-to-vehicle communication. Not only does the P.U.M.A. talk to other units, but it can detect the presence of other types of vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists; using that info to avoid collisions. It can also join together with other P.U.M.A.s to form high-speed (if you can call 35 MPH high speed) cross-city trains capable of using special lanes for uninterrupted travel.

So, the only thing that makes this more useful than a bicycle is predicated on (a) massive consumer adoption of the things and (b) ubiquitous specialized urban infrastructure? That’s clever.

I guess now that GM’s effectively owned by the federal government we should get used to ideas like this.

I can just see this car gliding down Chicago's Michigan Avenue in 20 below weather with a 40 mph breeze blowing. And some people wonder why GM is in trouble. It is not just the unions. Of course with Congress now running Government Motors I expect a lot more ideas like this of equal or greater brilliance. Look for solar cells that can collect dark energy and wind turbines that can generate power on windless days. Of course the Congress is equally good with economics. We are so fortunate to live in such a country.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Supporting Technology

You know that a technology has come of age when the required support is off the shelf instead of custom. Which is why this is such good news for mult-cell lithium battery technology.

Data Translation has announced its Voltpoint series of voltage-measurement instruments for lithium-ion cell-by-cell determination. Each Voltpoint is a stand-alone box offering 48 24-bit-resolution inputs over a sampling range of ±100V, each with its own sigma-delta ADC for direct connection to a PC through USB or Ethernet. The LXI (LAN-extensions-for-instrumentation) - compatible instruments can make high-voltage, high-precision battery-stack and cell-balance measurements in commercial and military hybrid-vehicle applications. They accept direct voltage inputs of any value in the range of ±100V from a single cell or from a series of stacked cells. In addition, the instruments can make motor-shunt measurements. Each of the 48 input channels offers 1000V channel-to-channel galvanic isolation. Maximum error is 3 mV for any input range.

Interesting specs, huh? Well for an engineer. The big deal is that a tester for multi-cell lithium batteries is now an off the shelf item. Which means that there is significant demand for such testing. Which means that in a year or three (depending on how long it takes to work out the bugs of the batteries and their charge and discharge systems) we will start seeing such batteries in autos in at least pre-production prototype volumes (which in the case of autos runs into the multiple-thousands). And, if it works out, we should see production volumes following on about a year or two afterwards.

China Builds A Lot Of Cars

China has surpassed the USA in automobile production.

In 2008, China surpassed the United States to become the world's second largest auto-making nation, and in 2009 is set to displace Japan as the planet's largest car producer, according to iSuppli Corp.

Last year, China manufactured 9.3 million cars, while the United States built 8.7 million. In 2009, China will build 8.7 million autos, compared to 7.6 million for Japan.

"China's rise to the No. 2 position in global car manufacturing in 2008 marks a major milestone in China's economic ascendency and the United States' industrial decline," said Egil Juliussen, director and fellow of automotive research for iSuppli. "China during the last five years more than doubled its domestic automobile production, while U.S. manufacturing has declined by nearly 50 percent. China, which produces most of its cars for domestic sale, has benefited from its booming economy and the soaring disposable incomes of its consumers. Meanwhile, U.S. auto production has been declining steadily due to increasing imports from the NAFTA nations Canada and Mexico, as well as from Europe and Asia."

In America we have an excellent way of reducing car production. We have government mandates for things like airbags. And guess what - you can get 95% of the safety effect of airbags with seat belts at a cost of $10 per passenger. For a cost of around $500 to $1,000 per passenger you get the slight added protection of air bags which don't work properly if you are not wearing your seat belt.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

More Welfare For The Rich

It looks like we not only have Welfare for the Rich. We have another case of the same welfare. Want a $50,000 electric sports car? Have we got a deal for you.

When Tesla formally announced the Model S Sedan last June, the MSRP bandied was about $60,000 for the all-electric sedan. In its newsletter today, Tesla has confirmed that the "anticipated base price" for the Model S will be $57,400. With a federal tax credit of $7,500 available, however, the Model S should cost just $49,900. Details on what's included in the base version of the Model S should be available at the vehicle's official unveiling next week.

What a great deal. For a bailed out banker. Or a Fannie Mae executive.

I think this whole deal is supposed to work on the trickle down theory. First the rich get the cars and then when they become used cars the rest of us have a chance. Now I believe in trickle down myself. If it weren't for used cars I wouldn't have a car. But please. Couldn't we do it without subsidies?

H/T Instapundit

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Tax Breaks For The Rich

It seems as if we have a new kind of economic privilege in America.

The Senate voted Tuesday to give a tax break to new car buyers, setting aside bipartisan concerns over the size of an economic stimulus bill with a price tag approaching $900 billion.

The 71-26 vote came as President Barack Obama said he lies awake nights worrying about the economy, and signaled opposition to congressional attempts to insert "buy American" provisions into the legislation for fear it would spark a trade war.

Sen. Barbara Mikulski led the successful effort to allow many car buyers to claim an income tax deduction for sales taxes paid on new autos and interest payments on car loans.

She said the plan would aid the beleaguered automobile industry as well as create jobs at a time the economy is losing them at a rapid rate. "I believe we can help by getting the consumer into the showroom," she said.

So government is now the marketing arm of the auto companies offering discounts to entice buyers? Do these critters have any idea of how foolish they look?

And what is this "if you buy a new car you get a tax break". If you buy a used car - nada. Don't people selling used cars deserve to have their market propped up? What makes them unworthy? Probably not enough union labor in the used car business to make it worth a politician's time.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Obama Trying To Sink Auto Industry

Making things is magic and changing the way things are made doesn't cost much. At least according to Mr. Obama who wants states to be in the Federal regulation business when it comes to automobiles.

President Obama will direct federal regulators on Monday to move swiftly on an application by California and 13 other states to set strict automobile emission and fuel efficiency standards, two administration officials said Sunday.

The directive makes good on an Obama campaign pledge and signifies a sharp reversal of Bush administration policy. Granting California and the other states the right to regulate tailpipe emissions would be one of the most emphatic actions Mr. Obama could take to quickly put his stamp on environmental policy.

Mr. Obama’s presidential memorandum will order the Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider the Bush administration’s past rejection of the California application. While it stops short of flatly ordering the Bush decision reversed, the agency’s regulators are now widely expected to do so after completing a formal review process.

Once they act, automobile manufacturers will quickly have to retool to begin producing and selling cars and trucks that get higher mileage than the national standard, and on a faster phase-in schedule. The auto companies have lobbied hard against the regulations and challenged them in court.

The auto companies are already reeling from the bad economy and now they will be forced to re-tool their whole business. Quickly. And why does he think American auto companies are in trouble? Not enough cars of tomorrow. Seriously. It is not the unions. It is not the management. It is not quality problems. It is a lack of futuristic thinking.

The first memorandum ordered the Transportation Department to work out rules for automakers to improve fuel economy. It calls for the department to notify automakers by March 2009 to increase their fuel efficiency for 2011 model year cars and trucks.

The design cycle for a modified production vehicle is three to four years depending on the extent of the modifications. These would be vehicles that could be built on current production lines with existing tooling and includes a shakedown period to test the new designs and get the bugs out. Now consider that the 2011 model year goes on sale in late 2010. So by government fiat he is going to get a 3 to 4 year process compressed into 18 months. The man is a miracle worker. Ah. But that is not the worst of it. If the mandates require a major redesign it can take about 5 to 6 years to get the logistics in place. Here are the general steps:

New design
Prototype
Test
Redesign
Test
Place Orders
Design new factories
Build Factory Eqpt
Negotiate work rules with unions (Detroit)
Train workers
Run Pre-Production Prototypes
Debug factories
Modify factories
Production

And he can reduce a process that takes from 3 to 6 years into 18 months by fiat? The man is a genius. Let us consider WW2 production. The rule was that in the first year (if the design was ready to go) 1 to 10 units. In the second year hundreds. In the third year - as many as you want. And that was in a simpler time when government hadn't saddled industry with a morass of regulations. Mr Obama is simply ignorant of logistics. He is operating under the rubric of "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." And of course since Mr. Obama is not a maker he has gone one step further and assumed that making things is magic and the normal rules of the universe do not apply. Time, space, energy, and the necessity to create the requsite ideas are instantly erased. You just think of what you want, wave the magic wand and presto. A million copies of your fantastic idea magically appear.

Obama said the fix will help the auto industry produce a viable product.

"We must help them thrive by building the cars of tomorrow," he said in an announcement before a live audience in the East Room of the White House.

Obama said that Washington must help states on tougher fuel standards, not work against them, and yet year after year, special interests have overshadowed common sense and rhetoric has supplanted the hard work needed to yield results.

"America will not be held hostage to dwindling resources," he said. "The days of Washington dragging its heels are over. My administration will not deny facts. We will be guided by them. ... We cannot afford to pass the buck."

The second memorandum ordered the Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider California's request for a waiver from the Clean Air Act -- a move that would allow California, the nation's most populous state, to set tougher tailpipe emission standards than apply nationally.

"Each step begins to move us in a new direction while giving us the tools that we need to change," Obama said.

Is he really serious about not being held hostage to dwindling resources? So where is his proposal for increasing American oil production? Not in evidence. And letting states determine what can be sold in their individual markets? That means the rules of the game will be changing frequently. Which is very bad for logistics planning. Every new rule or addition delays the production process. Mr. Obama needs to read a book. I suggest this one to start: Fundamentals of Production Planning and Control.

This whole deal can only end badly. Very badly. What ever happened to the administration that was supposed to be guided by science? By understanding of the fundamentals of engineering and technology? I guess we are fortunate that we have not elected a manager. We have instead elected a magician. God help us. Because it is obvious Mr. Obama will not.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Israel Has Clout At UN

Now there is a headline I bet you thought you would never see. And I bet you can't guess who is supporting them at the UN. It is not just the USA.

The United Nations Security Council met overnight Thursday on a resolution designed to bring a speedy halt to Israel's 13-day-old offensive against Hamas in Gaza. The vote over a resolution was apparently postponed due to Israeli pressure.

Key Arab nations and Western powers reached agreement on the main elements of a resolution, the head of the Arab League said.

The resolution was supported by the United States and Arab nations that have close ties to Hamas. But it will be up to Israel and Hamas to decide to stop their military activities.

"Peace will be made in the region, not in New York, but actions in New York can support the search for peace in the region," a senior British official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

That is diplo speak by the Ababs for "Thump Hamas as hard as you want. We don't mind. In fact we encourage it."

The "deal" starts out with the usual boilerplate.

The latest draft "stresses the urgency of and calls for an immediate, durable and fully respected cease-fire, leading to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza." It "condemns all violence and hostilities directed against civilians and all acts of terrorism."

And then it gets to the good stuff.

The draft also calls on UN member states "to intensify efforts to provide arrangements and guarantees in Gaza in order to sustain a durable cease-fire and calm, including to prevent illicit trafficking in arms and ammunition and to ensure the sustained re-opening" of border crossings.

It is well known that the border crossings will not be permanently re-opened until the Philistines stop their attacks through the crossings. Which means Gaza needs a new government because Hamas is committed irrevocably to the destruction of Israel.

This is a sea change in Middle East politics. One that actually happened in 2006. And why are the Arabs so inclined? Rather simple really. They fear Iran more than they fear Israel. This fact has been obvious since the Hizballah war of 2006 when Saudi Arabia came out at the beginning of the war supporting Israel at the expense of Hizballah/Iran. At least at first until hastily retracted in solidarity with their Philistine "brothers". That would be the brothers Saudi Arabia kicked out of its territory when they started getting all militant and such. Bunch of trouble makers those Philistines.

And what about the strategic defeat Israel suffered in 2006 against Hizballah? It looks like Hizballah is in no hurry to defeat Israel again.

"Lebanon denounces and condemns the firing of rockets and the retaliatory action and believes that such action is in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701," Siniora said in a statement, according to Lebanese press reports.

"We have asked the competent authorities in cooperation with the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to investigate," he said.

No group has claimed responsibility for the rocket firing, which lightly wounded two elderly residents of a retirement home in Nahariya.

Of course the government of Lebanon wants no part of a repeat of 2006. But what about the "real winners" Hizballah?

Lebanese Information Minister Tarek Mitri told AFP that Hizbullah had assured the cabinet that it "remains committed to stability and Resolution 1701," which brought an end to the Second Lebanon War.

Followed by the usual Hizballah chest thumping.

A Damascus-based leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, Ahmed Jibril, threatened Saturday to open up new military fronts against Israel if the conflict in Gaza were to escalate.

What exactly does if the conflict in Gaza were to escalate mean? I'd say it was already fairly well escalated.

I think it may fairly well be assumed that the players in the Middle East think that Hamas deserved a thumping. And that includes their main supporter Iran. Now why the sea change? The oil is running out. Not soon. Maybe not for fifty or a hundred years. But the end is in sight. And if not the actual supply of oil then the demand. The world has gotten serious about getting off the oil standard. How serious? So serious that even China is producing a plug in hybrid.

BYD Auto's plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, the F3DM, is now on sale in China, the company announced this week at a press conference in Shenzhen, China.

The F3DM, which will retail for 149,800 yuan ($21,200), can travel 100 km (63 miles) on its battery before needing to be recharged, according to BYD Auto.

The car can be plugged in to any average Chinese 220-volt wall outlet to be recharged.

While there are other plug-in electric hybrid cars available for sale, BYD Auto's F3DM is the first one in China to be mass-produced and, therefore, widely available to the general public, according to both BYD and The Wall Street Journal.

BYD Auto told reporters at the press conference that it expects to sell 350,000 F3DM cars in 2009. It also plans to launch an all-electric vehicle in 2009.

And who is behind BYD? Now there is an interesting story. but I will give you a hint. Who would guess that the center of the automotive world is no longer Detroit (well that is obvious) but in Omaha, Nebraska? Omaha, Nebraska? That is not so obvious.

In September, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet announced that MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, had bought $230 million worth of stock in BYD, giving it a 10 percent interest in the company.

Average Americans may also soon have a chance to buy a piece of BYD. The company also announced that it plans to begin exporting the F3DM to the U.S. in 2010.

Many automakers, including General Motors and Toyota, have been working on plug-in electric vehicles for mass production. All have said that the battery technology for this type of vehicle has been the most challenging aspect of the development process.

It should be no surprise then, that the Shenzhen, China-based company which is now a major player in the Chinese auto industry, started out in 1995 as a cell phone battery manufacturer.

The plans for an American roll out in 2010 have been delayed to at least 2011. In any case the hand writing is on the wall. The dominance of oil will come to an end. Not soon. But the end is in sight.

And how about those geniuses in Detroit? GM has put the Chevy Volt factory on hold.

General Motors is suspending work on the $370 million factory slated to build engines for the Chevrolet Volt, but says the plug-in hybrid will appear in showrooms by the end of 2010 as promised.

The decision comes as GM frantically slashes costs in a desperate bid to survive while the White House dithers on a bailout. GM and Chrysler have said they could be out of money by the end of the year, but Congress failed to approve $14 billion in short-term loans to the Big Three and the Bush administration appears to be in no hurry to act.

With cash dwindling fast, GM says it has no choice but to postpone work on the the factory in Flint, Michigan, where 300 people would build the 1.4-liter engines slated for the Volt hybrid and Chevrolet Cruze compact.

"It's temporarily on hold as we assess our cash situation," GM spokeswoman Sharon Basel told the Detroit Free Press. "I don't think it's any surprise that we're studying and reviewing everything, given the position we're in."

GM is doing everything short of searching for coins under the couch cushions in Rick Wagoner's office, but the Volt program has until now been sacrosanct. Rightfully so, because the range-extended electric car is the centerpiece of GM's campaign to recast itself as a company that builds fuel-efficient vehicles. It's the one thing GM can point to and say "See? We get it. We finally get it." But things have gotten so bad even the Volt is taking a hit.

Idiots.

In any case new car companies will step into the breech. And some old companies like Toyota are hustling their butts to get a plug in hybrid on the market. And if you can't wait there are plug in hybrid conversion kits.

Not content to be a potential supplier of lithium ion batteries for GM's plug-in hybrid programs, A123 Systems will start selling battery packs that conversion companies can use to transform current hybrid vehicles to plug-in capability. The company has already been working with Hymotion on plug-in kits and they have a contract to convert ten Prius for the California South Coast Air Quality Management District.

The kits will be completely integrated and designed to be installed in under two hours. The installed price of the 5kWh kit for a Prius is $10,000 and gives a range of 14 miles on battery. A123 CEO David Vieau testified at a recent US Senate hearing in support of tax breaks for customers buying plug-in conversions. Fleet testing of the systems is ongoing and sales are expected to start in 2008.

And if not 2008 then soon.

The lithium ion batteries are the stumbling block as evidenced by comments #30, #34, and others at the link. However, the problems will get solved. There is a lot of money at stake.

Well we are kind of far afield from the Gaza 2009 war. Which just goes to show you that everything in this world is interconnected. Some obscure guy in a lab is even now working on something that will change the world for the better in a big way. Hamas should have been paying attention. Fools. Peace in the Middle East through better battery technology.

So now you know why Israel has clout among the Arabs at the UN. Batteries.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Ruins Of Detroit

I was reading a bit in The Weekly Standard about Detroit.

As the night wears on, Charlie grows defensive, and almost defiant, about Detroit. He recounts everything it's done for the country, insists the city still matters and won't disappear, speculates about the potential for it to become a major port since "water is the new oil," and insists that Henry Ford is more important to history than Jesus Christ since "even Muslims drive Toyotas." At this, Patterson, a good Catholic boy, leans into my tape recorder, "That was Charlie. .  .  . When I go home tonight, I will make the sign of the cross and pray to Henry Ford."

Charlie heads for the restroom, and Patterson grows philosophical: "Detroit's history has gone the way of Rome and Athens and Constantinople. It is what history does. History moves on. And history has moved away from the Babylonian Empire. It moved away from Egypt. It be what it be. .  .  . I think Detroit sees itself in its rearview mirror. But Detroit will never again be where those other cities were, including Detroit."

And then I got a heads up from a site I had posted at a couple of years ago which reminded me of a pictorial essay The Fabulous Ruins of Detroit.

Now all this is too fresh to be just an interesting ruin. It still hurts to see wealth turn into decay. Give it another 100 or 200 years and it will be an archaeological site and not the screaming pain of a city in its death throes. Civilization has moved on. Water ways are not so important for transporting industrial goods. The graft and political encrustations of Detroit are no longer supportable. Factories that were once state of the art are now too much overhead for changed technology. The layouts are wrong. The attitudes of the people are too hardened. Too much "this is the way it has always been done". So the last of the life is being sucked out of Detroit. It is sad. But we are too close. In a hundred years it will just be "interesting".

And on the pedestal these words appear:
'My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my works. Ye Mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Covering It With A TARP

It appears that Bush is going to bail out the auto companies with TARP money

Hours after the loan plan broke apart in the Senate, the Treasury Department declared that it stands ready to make available funds to automakers until lawmakers have time to consider a long-term rescue package next year.

"Because Congress failed to act, we will stand ready to prevent an imminent failure until Congress reconvenes and acts to address the long-term viability of the industry," said Treasury spokeswoman Brooklyn McLaughlin in a statement.

Separately, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said funds to aid the sector might come from the government's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. She gave no indication of a time frame for a decision on the loans or conditions on them, however.

The auto companies are suffering from bad management, bad labor, and bad Federal regulations.

I'm sure the new Congress with the assistance of the new president can fix it. Given enough money. Except the money will not be given. It will be taken from taxpayers.

Bail Out Boat Sinking

It looks like the unpopular auto company bail out is going to have a tough time passing in the current Congress.

Republicans were preparing a strong fight against the aid plan in the Senate, not only taking on the Democrats but standing in open revolt against their party's lame-duck president on the measure.

The Republicans want to force the companies into bankruptcy or mandate hefty concessions from autoworkers and creditors as a condition of any federal aid. They also oppose an environmental mandate that House Democrats insisted on including in the measure.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House-passed bill represented "tough love" for U.S. auto companies and "giving a chance — this one more chance — to this great industry."

Yep. Tough love all right.

So tough that it will force the auto companies into a position of building cars they can't sell.

The fuel-efficient "green" cars GM, Ford and Chrysler profess to be thrilled to be developing at Congress's behest will be unsellable unless gas prices are much higher than today's.

"Very few people will want to change what has been their 'nationality-given' right to drive big and bigger if the price of gas is $1.50 or $2.00 or even $2.50," Mr. Lutz explained. "Those prices will put the CAFE-mandated manufacturers at war with their customers -- and no one will win in that battle."

Translation: To become "viable," as Congress chooses crazily to understand the term, the Big Three are setting out to squander billions on products that will have to be dumped on consumers at a loss.

I must admit that it is about the toughest love Congress could impose on the auto companies. Let me translate: in order to get the money stolen from the taxpayers the auto companies will have to increase their loss rate.

This from the geniuses who brought us Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

And it gets better. The government will appoint a commisar of auto production to watch over the companies to make sure the money isn't wasted building cars the consumers want.

Besides providing cash for the auto companies, it would create a government "car czar," to be named by President George W. Bush to dole out the loans, with the power to take back the money and force the carmakers into bankruptcy next spring if they didn't cut quick deals with labor unions, creditors and others to restructure their businesses and become viable.

OK. We have a drug czar to fix our drug problems, and an energy czar to fix our energy problems. How is that working out?

"To give up on the auto industry now would be to condemn the American economy at one of its most vulnerable periods in our economic history to a degree of further hurt," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass, the Financial Services Committee chairman.

And just to maintain the hilarity, it was Barney Frank, who once said, "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not facing any kind of financial crisis." I have an existential dilemma here. Should I laugh or should I cry?

Opposition from Republicans reflected the tricky task of pushing yet another federal rescue through a bailout-weary Congress, with Bush's influence on the wane.

"People realize that this bill is an incredibly weak bill (and) is the product of an administration that wants to kick the can down the road and let somebody else deal with it," said Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn.

It all started with Saint FDR and the National Labor Relations Act or NLRB which got the government involved in labor/management relations. It is one of the prime reasons the auto unions have been able to suck the auto companies dry. It is a neat little trick they pull. They strike one auto company while letting the others operate. Thus the guys still working can support the guys still out on strike. What is an auto company to do? What do they do? Cave in to union demands or go out of business. Forty years of that and it looks like at least two of the big three will be going out of business anyway. Either that or they will become GSEs. That would be Government Sponsored Enterprises. Another way to put it is that they will become slush funds for Congress Critters.

And it only gets better.

In the Senate, opposition to the auto rescue wasn't limited to Republicans.

Democratic Sen. Max Baucus of Montana announced he was against the measure because of a provision to bail out transit agencies that were involved in transactions that are now considered unlawful tax shelters.

Let me see here. If a little guy is engaged in an abusive tax shelter they can pay penalties and even go to jail. If city governments engage in such shenanigans Congress will pass a law making it all nice and legal like. Where can I buy a Congress Critter? Besides Illinois I mean. I wonder if they are selling in New York?

And really. Congress is keeping an eagle eye on the the government purse.

The carmakers initially asked Congress for $25 billion, then returned two weeks later to plead for as much as $34 billion. But with the White House refusing to dole out new spending for the Big Three, congressional Democrats agreed to use an existing program that was to help carmakers retool their factories to make more fuel-efficient cars.

That fund yielded only $15 billion in emergency loans, and when negotiators agreed to leave some money in the environmental program, the amount fell to $14 billion.

Democrats agreed to scrap language — which the White House had called a deal-breaker — that would have forced the carmakers to drop lawsuits challenging tough emissions limits in California and other states. But they kept a provision to force the automakers to abide by those states' limits — a kind of consolation prize for environmentalists, who already were livid at the raid of the fuel-efficiency program.

Senate Democrats unveiled a nearly identical measure that omitted the requirement, but that bill still faced long odds.

At the White House, Deputy Chief of Staff Joel Kaplan said the Bush administration would work with President-elect Barack Obama's team on choosing industry czar.

It looks like there are too many people working at cross purposes here. This has got to be a bonanza for the Congress critters who should be getting huge "donations" to their reelection funds.

And what does our Smartest President Elect Ever™ have to say?

"As messy as it may be, I think there's a sense of, 'Let's stabilize the patient,'" he said in an interview published in Wednesday's Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times.

The car czar would have say-so over any major business decisions by the automakers while they were taking advantage of federal aid, with veto power over any transaction of $100 million or more. The companies — including the private equity firm Cerberus, which owns a majority stake in Chrysler — would have to open their books to the government overseer.

Stabilize the patient? I wonder what his cut is. Maybe his wife will get a seat on another company board.

And the final kicker?

Also included in the bill is an unrelated pay raise for federal judges.

I don't think it is unrelated at all. It is how you keep the law from being declared null and void. Are the judges going to rule against their own interest? I think it is wise to keep in mind the near iron clad law of human nature - Honor dies where interest lies. Them Congress Critters are crafty in a low sort of way. Well. It is not their money.

H/T Instapundit

Cross Posted at Classical Values

We Can't Sell The Damn Things

Bob Lutz the operating head of General Motors says if Congress requires the car companies to build small ultra fuel efficient vehicles they will have to be sold at a loss. Now that is a truly brilliant way to help car companies that are losing money.

Leave it to Bob Lutz, GM's voluble vice chairman, to puncture the unreality of the auto bailout he himself has been championing. In an email to Ward's Auto World, he notes an obvious flaw in Congress's rescue plan now taking shape: The fuel-efficient "green" cars GM, Ford and Chrysler profess to be thrilled to be developing at Congress's behest will be unsellable unless gas prices are much higher than today's.

"Very few people will want to change what has been their 'nationality-given' right to drive big and bigger if the price of gas is $1.50 or $2.00 or even $2.50," Mr. Lutz explained. "Those prices will put the CAFE-mandated manufacturers at war with their customers -- and no one will win in that battle."

Translation: To become "viable," as Congress chooses crazily to understand the term, the Big Three are setting out to squander billions on products that will have to be dumped on consumers at a loss.

None of this was mentioned at four days of congressional bailout hearings, because Detroit knows better than to suggest Congress has a role in the industry's problem. Yet its own recently updated Corporate Average Fuel Economy regime, or CAFE, makes a mockery of the idea that government money will render the companies profitable, even as the same bailout bill demands that the Big Three drop their legal challenge to a California mileage mandate even more unsustainable than the federal government's.

So will Congress raise gasoline taxes enough to price gasoline at $4 a gallon. In the middle of a recession? Are you nuts? Will they stiff arm the eco-nuts and lower CAFE requirements? Are you nuts? Will they allow the car companies to import high mileage vehicles from Europe and PO the American unions? Are you nuts?

It looks to me like Congress has just bought some car companies.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Czarist America

Yeah. We have a Drug Czar. An Energy Czar. And coming soon to an American company near you: an Auto Czar. And no - the czar will not be into self rule. He is going to rule auto companies who take government money.

WASHINGTON – A federal "car czar" would oversee a government-run restructuring of U.S. auto companies in return for a $15 billion bailout of the beleaguered industry under an emerging deal between the White House and Congress.

Negotiators worked through the night Monday narrowing differences on a bill to rush short-term loans to the struggling carmakers through a plan that requires that the industry reinvent itself to survive — and pay back the government if it doesn't. The package could come to a vote as early as Wednesday.

The measure would put a government overseer named by President George W. Bush in charge of setting guidelines for an industry wide overhaul, with the power to revoke the loans if the automakers fail to do what's necessary to become viable.

At least the transplant auto makers will not be involved. They have their own governments propping them up. I guess nearly all the auto companies of the world will be on equal footing now. Pity. At least for the time being Ford remains independent.

There is one small ray of hope in this march to corporate socialism.

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., a key ally of the auto industry, said getting the roughly 15 Republicans needed to support the plan was an uphill battle.

"This is a real hill to climb even if we can get agreement between the White House and congressional leaders," he said.

I wonder why they need 15 Republicans? Ten or eleven ought to be enough to end a filibuster. Does that mean all the Democrats in the current Senate are not on board? I hope so.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Ford Plant The UAW Won't Allow In America

The most advanced auto plant in the world and the UAW is against having it located in America. And the UAW wants a bail out for the auto industry? Not one cent. No loans. No cash. No nothing. They helped ruin the business. They can go down with it.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Bailing Out Mr. Potatoe Head

Yeah. That is a funny spelling of potato. It is former Vice President Dan Quayle's trademark. Well Mr. Quayle is at it again. He is global investing chief of Cerberus Capital Management which owns Chrysler. And of course Chrysler wants in on the proposed auto bail out.

Let's assume that the powers in Washington -- the Bush team now, the Obama team soon -- deem GM too big to let fail. If so, it's also too big to be entrusted to the same people who have led it to its current, perilous state, and who are too tied to the past to create a different future.

In return for any direct government aid, the board and the management should go. Shareholders should lose their paltry remaining equity. And a government-appointed receiver -- someone hard-nosed and nonpolitical -- should have broad power to revamp GM with a viable business plan and return it to a private operation as soon as possible.

That will mean tearing up existing contracts with unions, dealers and suppliers, closing some operations and selling others, and downsizing the company. After all that, the company can float new shares, with taxpayers getting some of the benefits. The same basic rules should apply to Ford and Chrysler.

These are radical steps, and they wouldn't avoid significant job losses. But there isn't much alternative besides simply letting GM collapse, which isn't politically viable. At least a government-appointed receiver would help assure car buyers that GM will be around, in some form, to honor warranties on its vehicles. It would help minimize losses to the government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.

And what is one of GM's very big problems? Their Union.

The current economic crisis didn't cause the meltdown in Detroit. The car companies started losing billions of dollars several years ago when the economy was healthy and car sales stood at near-record levels. They complained that they were unfairly stuck with enormous "legacy costs," but those didn't just happen. For decades, the United Auto Workers union stoutly defended gold-plated medical benefits that virtually no one else had. UAW workers and retirees had no deductibles, copays or other facts of life in these United States.

Well the unions have a lot of clout with the incoming administration. Which may not be a good thing.

And too big to fail? Hmmm. Too politically connected to fail. And since we are speaking of politics Chrysler is in the thick of it.

As for Ford and Chrysler, if they want similar public assistance they should pay the same price. Wiping out existing shareholders would end the Ford family's control of Ford Motor. But keeping the family in the driver's seat wouldn't be an appropriate use of tax dollars. Nor is bailing out the principals of Cerberus, who include CEO Stephen Feinberg, Chairman John Snow, the former Treasury secretary, and global investing chief Dan Quayle, former vice president.

Government loan guarantees, with stringent strings attached and new management at the helm, helped save Chrysler in 1980. But it's now 2008, 35 years since the first oil shock put Japanese cars on the map in America. "Since the mid-Seventies," one Detroit manager recently told me, "I have sat through umpteen meetings describing how we had to beat the Japanese to survive. Thirty-five years later we are still trying to figure it out."

So the owners of Chrysler are loaded up with paid for political connections. You know this whole deal from top to bottom looks like Chicago politics and real estate deals with Tony Rezko. I think I detect a pattern here. And it is not one that gives any comfort. The money goes to the auto companies just like it went to Tony Rezko's housing rehab company and after a while the properties rehabbed fail any way. With the owners walking off with some very handsome fees. Well like they say in Chicago ubi est?

H/T Design News

Cross Posted at Classical Values