US Flotilla Transits Turkey Arrives In Georgia

I'm going to go into some detail on the ships which is interesting in and of itself. However, the most interesting part to me is that the warships had to transit Turkey to arrive in the Black Sea. That I believe is the most critical development in the region of Georgia. Turkey is supporting Georgian independence from Moscow. By treaty they are supposed to allow small warships to transit the Straights of Bosporus. However, they made no diplomatic representation such as "We deplore the build up of Naval power in the region". I must say that it is a most welcome yet unexpected development. It also means that flights from Turkey to Georgia are also assured. Further it means that the Ukraine can be defended from Russian moves.

Here are the ships involved according to The US Navy.

BATUMI, Republic of Georgia (NNS) -- USS McFaul (DDG 74) pulled into the port of Batumi, Georgia, Aug. 24 to deliver humanitarian relief supplies to the country as part of the larger United States response to the government of Georgia request for humanitarian assistance.

There will be a total of five ships including the USS Mount Whitney and USCGC Dallas.

The U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Dallas (WHEC 716) and USS Mount Whitney (LCC/JCC 20) have also on-loaded humanitarian supplies destined for Georgia. Dallas left Souda Bay, Crete on Thursday with more than 76,000 pounds of relief supplies and will arrive in Georgia within a week. U.S. Navy C-9, C-40 and C-130 aircraft have flown tens of thousands of hygiene kits into the country over the past week.

The USS Mount Whitney is a rather interesting ship. Here is a description given by the US Navy:

MOUNT WHITNEY (MTW) serves as the Command Ship for Commander, SIXTH Fleet/ Commander, Joint Command Lisbon/Commander, Striking Force NATO and has a complement of 150 enlisted personnel, 12 officers and 150 Civilian Mariners from Military Sealift Command. MTW was the first U.S. Navy combatant to permanently accommodate women on board.

MTW carries enough food to feed the crew for 90 days and can transport supplies to support an emergency evacuation of 3,000 people. The ship makes 100,000 gallons of fresh water daily and carries over one million gallons of fuel, enough for a round trip, 16 knot, 35 day voyage from Norfolk, Virginia to Mozambique in the Indian Ocean. The ship's two anchors weigh 11 tons each and are attached to 180 fathoms (or 1,080 feet) of anchor chain. Each chain weighs almost 25 tons. Total electrical capacity is 7,500 kilowatts, a sufficient amount to power a small city.

The ship's afloat communications capability is second to none. MTW can receive, process and transmit large amounts of secure data from any point on earth through HF, UHF, VHF, SHF, and EHF communications paths. This technology enables the Joint Intelligence Center and Joint Operations Center to gather and fuse critical information while on the move. As the most sophisticated Command, Control, Communications, Computer, and Intelligence (C4I) ship ever commissioned, MTW incorporates various elements of the most advanced C4I equipment and gives the embarked Joint Task Force Commander the capability to effectively command widely dispersed air, ground and maritime units in an integrated fashion.

If it was refueled before entering the Black Sea it could support operations independent of land based supplies for quite some time.

Note that with the length of anchor chain supplied it could anchor in 250 to 350 feet of water. i.e. it doesn't need to be in a harbor to anchor.

So what kind of ship is it? In simple terms it is a floating command post. What does it represent in strategic terms? A challenge to Russian supremacy in the Black sea.

Want to hear a Russian General whine about the American forces being moved into the Black sea? I knew you did.

The deputy chief of Russia's general staff suggested that the arrival of the ship and those of other NATO members would increase tensions in the Black Sea. Russia shares the sea with NATO members Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria as well as Georgia and Ukraine, whose pro-Western president also is leading a drive for NATO membership.

"I don't think such a buildup will foster the stabilization of the atmosphere in the region," Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency quoted Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn as saying Saturday.

If by "stability" he means Russian Control I think he is totally correct. However, had Russia wanted stability I don't think they should have gone around whacking their neighbors.

What would the Russian objective have been? Control of the pipeline passing through Georgia. They didn't get it. That means they spent a fair amount of military resources and are not going to get any long term profit from it. In fact they will have the cost of maintaining their troops in a hostile territory. The odds are they will be pulling out as soon as they can do so without losing much face.

How do the Georgians feel about the arrival of the American Navy?

At dockside in Batumi, with the McFaul anchored offshore, U.S. Navy officials in crisp white uniforms were met Sunday by Georgian officials, including Defense Minister David Kezerashvili.

Speaking to The Associated Press on the aft missile deck of the McFaul, anchored a mile offshore, Kezerashvili said Georgians would feel safer now.

“They will feel safe not because the destroyer is here but because they will feel they are not alone facing the Russian aggression,” he said.

And how about the US Congress? Do they get it? Indeed they do. At least a little bit.

In another sign of U.S. support for Georgia, Republican Senator for Indiana Richard Lugar met with the nation's leaders in Tbilisi. He urged European leaders to cut their dependence on Russian energy imports.

``It is imperative that the EU minimize energy dependency upon Russian gas and oil resources, even at this point, it is important for the United States to maintain a dialogue on the energy resources,'' he said.

Indeed it is a necessity. So where will the supplies come from to support Europe down the road? It seems to me that it is critical for the US to start exploiting its vast untapped oil reserves. Drilling, mining and refining US oil is way more profitable than fighting wars over it. Besides, better the Euros spend their money with us than with the Russians or Iranians. Oil at $70 a bbl. will lead to a much more peaceful world than oil at $140 a bbl. Now all we have to do is get the Democrats on board or replace them.

In the long run we will have to get off oil. In the mean time there is no point in fighting wars over it.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

They Are Burning The Houses

Michael Totten reports from Georgia

On Monday, I visited one of the schools transformed into refugee housing in the center of Tbilisi and spoke to four women—Lia, Nana, Diana, and Maya—who had fled with their children from a cluster of small villages just outside the city of Gori. “We left the cattle,” Lia said. “We left the house. We left everything and came on foot because to stay there was impossible.” Diana’s account: “They are burning the houses. From most of the houses they are taking everything. They are stealing everything, even such things as toothbrushes and toilets. They are taking the toilets. Imagine. They are taking broken refrigerators.” And Nana: “We are so heartbroken. I don’t know what to say or even think. Our whole lives we were working to save something, and one day we lost everything. Now I have to start everything from the very beginning.”

Imagine how desperate the Russians and Cossacks must be to steal the toothbrushes and toilets and what low lifes they are.

Michael has more. Read It All.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

No Deal

The deal brokered in Lebanon to end Muslim on Muslim violence is off. Maybe way off.

Several Sunni factions in Lebanon announced Tuesday night that they are freezing a truce they had signed with Hizbullah a day earlier.

The agreement, intended to defuse sectarian tension, prohibited any Muslim group from attacking fellow Muslims.

"The agreement will be temporarily frozen pending appropriate circumstances that allow for its implementation," Sheikh Hassan al-Shahhal, who signed the memorandum with a Hizbullah official, told reporters Tuesday, according to The Lebanese Daily Star. The Sunni community, he said, needed to stand "more than ever" united and to shun divisions, while the memorandum needed further study.

Hizbullah officials said Wednesday that they respect the groups' choice of freezing the memorandum of understanding for more discussions and revisions.

Hmmm. Something has happened to weaken the Hizballah position in Lebanon. Meekness has never been one of their virtues. Normally a change like this would be accompanied by threats and bombast.

It appears the correlation of forces in the world is changing. Something has shaken Iran. Could it be economic troubles?

Tehran, 13 August: The punch line of economic models for single- product countries is that they can considerably quicken the process of non-reliance on mono-product policies.

Fundamentally, Iran's economy relies on oil revenues. The extent of this dependence is so much that some experts believe that Iran's oil should be named 'black disaster'.

Since the discovery of oil in Masjed Soleyman, the dependence of Iran's economy on oil sales has not decreased. On the contrary, it has increased on a daily basis and this process has gathered pace and accelerated. Based on this, when a national government with great ideals came to power, one its main mottos and strategies was the formation of an oil-free economy. Unfortunately this policy never materialized and compared to 50 years ago, the Iranian economy's dependence on oil has increased. However, oil prices and its fluctuation are also very dangerous and worrisome.

During recent days, oil price dropped from 140 to 113 dollars in less than a week. This drop happened while three important events which traditionally were considered reasons behind the increase of oil prices occurred in the world. These events included the Beijing Olympic Games, the start of the summer season and an increase in global oil consumption, and most important of all the regional war between Georgia and Russia in the Caucasus.

The Russian economy is also highly dependent on oil these days. Might this explain their move into Georgia? Perhaps the move was not about South Ossetia at all. Perhaps it was really an attempt to keep oil and natural gas from flowing through Georgia in an attempt to prop up world oil prices.

Perhaps the Russians and Iranians are anticipating further drops in oil prices over the coming year. Especially since the Russian grab for the Georgian oil pipeline has failed. Maybe not totally, but essentially.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the interests of the newly emerging states of the Caucasus and countries such as Ukraine and Belarus have repeatedly and fiercely clashed with those of Russia. In particular, they have competed with each other over energy resources and the transmission corridors of the former Soviet Union.

Russian interruptions of gas supplies to Ukraine, Belarus and the rest of Eastern Europe are legion - and so are the restrictions they have imposed on the transmission of Kazakh oil to the international market across their territory. If Russia controls the flow of energy, it also has dangerous sway over the economies of Western Europe.

The EU had been trying to wean itself off energy dependence on Moscow by developing a network of energy routes through Georgia. It's no wonder that the Russians turned their attention in that direction.

If the Iranians are expecting further drops in the price of oil they may be cutting back on funding for their Hizballah Army in Lebanon. Armies like to be paid. Without pay they dissolve.

Talleyrand is reputed to have said something like: "you can do anything with bayonets, except sit on them". Maybe this is one of those cases where the bayonets must be sent home for lack of maintenance.

If America starts drilling for oil (which is looking more and more likely) it is more than possible we can put an end to a lot of unrest in the world by forcing oil exporters to focus on economics rather than war. And that may explain the changes in the correlation of forces.

Not Just Camping Out

The US military has been training the Georgian Army since 2002. Us troops were scheduled to leave Georgia in March of 2009. It appears the schedule has been changed.

During the Soviet era, Krtsanisi military base outside Tbilisi was home to the Red Army.

Now it is US soldiers who are in charge and, according to the US Ambassador in Tbilisi Richard Miles, they are in Georgia to stay.

In 2002 the Bush administration set up an 18-month, $65m programme aimed at training and equipping Georgia's impoverished army.

The programme was part of America's war on terror and it started after the US confirmed Russian allegations about the presence of Chechen and al-Qaeda fighters in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, on the border with Chechnya.

Details are still to be announced of the new permanent programme, but analysts say that any sort of US military presence is good news for the Georgian Government, which sees the US engagement as a security guarantee against Georgia's northern neighbour - Russia.

So lets see. America will have Patriot Battery troops in Poland and a permanent training base in Georgia. What does a permanent training base mean? Airfields. And what does that portend? Fighter aircraft based in Georgia to protect supply flights. It also means that the Georgian Army can be resupplied with American eqpt. We have a lot of used eqpt in Iraq that can be transfered to Georgia once it gets replaced by new American eqpt. Nothing like second hand eqpt. to teach maintenance.

Some how I don't think this is what the Russians expected when they moved into Georgia. It also means that Russian resupply to Iran is complicated. In case of American "trouble" with Iran.

Last week, the Bush administration also called for Russia to remove its military and said it was even prepared to take up some of the costs needed for the relocation of Russian troops.

Now there is something the gangsters running Russia can understand. Bribery.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Ties That Bind

You have to wonder what the Russians are thinking.

Syria’s official news agency SANA announced Mr. Assad would begin a “working visit” to Moscow on Wednesday at the invitation of Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev.

Ahead of the visit, Mr. Assad told Russia’s Kommersant daily on Wednesday that his country’s defence ties with Moscow, in the context of developments in Georgia, would be the main issue during his talks. “Of course, military and technical cooperation is the main issue. Weapons purchases are very important,” he said, adding: “I think we should speed it up. Moreover, the West and Israel continue to put pressure on Russia.”

Mr. Assad said a new situation had arisen after Moscow came across the use of Israeli military equipment by Georgia in its conflict with Russia.

“I think that in Russia and in the world everyone is now aware of Israel’s role and its military consultants in the Georgian crisis. And if before in Russia there were people who thought these forces can be friendly, then now I think no one thinks that way.”

I think he got that right. He just got it backwards. No one in the world now thinks the Russians are nice friendly folk who just want to do business and enjoy life.

Speaking on the conflict between Georgia and Russia over Georgia’s breakaway republic of South Ossetia, Mr. Assad said: “On this issue we fully support Russia. The war, which was unleashed by Georgia, is the culmination of attempts to encircle and isolate Russia.”

Earlier, Iran’s Press TV, quoting Israeli media reports, said Russia planned to position the nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in Syria. The Israeli report also said Russia could also release to Iran, the advanced S-300 missiles, which had so far been withheld.

Analysts point out the release of advanced Russian military equipment to Syria and Iran is likely to dampen the sentiment of war against Tehran in U.S. political circles. Nevertheless, a large flotilla of U.S. British and French naval ships has been heading towards the Persian Gulf. The naval taskforce, believed to be largest in Gulf waters since the first Gulf War, includes the U.S. warships — Theodore Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, and Iwo Jima.

I did a post on that Naval movement Perhaps They Miscalculated. Then yesterday I got this e-mail from Fabius Maximus.

Here is the final nail in the coffin of the rumor featured in your post of August 12. Is a retraction in order? (I apologize if I have overlooked it).

This rumor was widely circulated in the Internet and in the Middle East media, so this is not a trivial issue.

Stop the presses: no naval armada has sailed to blockade Iran!

Summary: For a week rumors about a US armada sailing to the Gulf circulated around the Internet and in Middle Eastern media, despite having almost no supporting evidence. One of the two major sources for the “US fleet sailing to blockade Iran” story now has admitted his error. No word yet from the other (and more high-profile) source, Debkafile (does Debkafile post retractions?) or the blogs which promoted the rumors.

He goes on about the misinformation that the inet is promoting on at Fabius Maximus. Which is more or less a reproduction of the e-mail.

Now what do I think? The Theodore Roosevelt was in port at the time I wrote my report according to sources I have found of late: i.e. comments at blogs. However, that does not in my opinion invalidate the general idea of an Iranian blockade in the works. I'd like to wait a week or three and see what happens. He may be right about no blockade. However, it seems if Iran and Syria are getting nuclear capable missiles that could lead to pre-emptive attacks by Israel and precipitate a blockade of Iran by the USA.

It is really hard to see where this is all going. I thought it was 1936 (re:Germany France and the Rhineland) it may be much later than that - 1939 (re: Germany and Russia dismembering Poland). If so we may have a very big war on our hands. All this could have been prevented if the USA was supplying more oil to the world markets limiting the profits of our enemies Russia and Iran, not to mention our "best friend" Saudi Arabia.

Who do I blame for this situation? The Democrats who have declared new American oil sources off limits. Had they allowed drilling and mining of new oil resources it might have defused this run up to a what appears to be a very serious oil war. Evidently they have decided that Blood For Oil is better than drilling for oil. Scum of the earth. And if a single Democrat who is against American contributions to the world oil market is left in the House after November it will just prove we deserve a world wide oil war.

You can watch a video that gives Harry Reid's opinion of drilling for oil and the response of an ordinary citizen at Harry Reid Makes Me Sick. An eye opener.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Revoke The Games

In response to my post Let the Games End, commenter Karl notifies me that a petition to revoke the Winter Olympic Games in Russia in 2014 has been started.

If you want a badge for your site this is the place to go.

It is the least we can do.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Let The Games End

There is talk of denying the Russians the Winter Olympic games in 2014.

Pennsylvania’s Democratic Rep. Allyson Y. Schwartz and Republican Bill Shuster , the co-chairs of the House Georgia Caucus, announced they intend to introduce a resolution when Congress returns calling on the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to find a new venue for the winter games.

The resolution states that the Russia’s invasion of the Georgian republic makes it an unacceptable host site and notes that Sochi is located about 20 miles from the current conflict zone.

“Russia must realize that its actions in Georgia will not be ignored by the international community. We stand by Georgia, our friend and ally, and call on the IOC to designate a new venue for the Russian Olympics,” Schwartz said in a statement.

You have to admit that having the Olympics 20 miles from a potential war zone is going to reduce the crowds. Perhaps the Russians could increase the interest by insisting on some new sports. Sports where the Russians are sure to be winners.

If a war starts up in the middle (or at the beginning) of the Olympics, that could be especially handy for purposes of finding victims (er, contestants) for the new sports. Perhaps we could start with an Olympic roping and throat slitting contest. Or maybe a pillage and intimidation race. And for the really adventurous a rape sprint and a rape marathon. You give the woman a head start and if the male catches her it is totally free style. No killing though. That should be reserved for the throat slitting contest.

I think this one case where it is past time for the games to end.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Democrats Strike Out

American Thinker recounts the latest moves in Congress with respect to drilling for new oil resources.

After reporting yesterday on Nancy Pelosi's desire to develop a comprehensive energy bill instead of an up or down vote on lifting off shore drilling restrictions, the GOP immediately saw through her transparent attempt to make the bill so poisonous some in her own party could never vote for it and have rejected the idea outright.

Cute. it appears the Democrats are not serious about gaining new sources of marketable oil.

What do the Republicans want?

Republicans lambasted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) energy plan Saturday advising her to “get out of the way” if she was not going to accept GOP solutions to the energy crisis.

In her Saturday radio address Pelosi announced that Democrats would consider opening up parts of the outer continental shelf for drilling as a part of a broad new energy plan that will be unveiled in the coming weeks.

[snip]

Republicans soundly rejected Pelosi’s proposal – indicating it was too little too late.

“Madame Speaker, we ask you to work with us to help Americans feeling pain at the pump by developing more American energy,” said Republican Study Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas). “If you refuse, we simply ask you get out of the way and allow us to help the people that sent us here.They understand how flawed and out of touch your caucus is on energy issues, and so do we.”

Republican Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (R-Fla.) added, ““There is no better, more qualified spokesperson for the Democratic Party’s failed energy policies than Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”

And how about them Russians? Wretchard looks at Russia's energy plan.

Most of Russia’s current power and influence comes from its production and control of energy. According to the DOE, “Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period.”

“Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports. In order to manage windfall oil receipts, the government established a stabilization fund in 2004. By the end of 2007, the fund was expected to be worth $158 billion, or about 12 percent of the country’s nominal GDP. According to calculations by Alfa Bank, the fuel sector accounts for about 20.5 percent of GDP, down from around 22 percent in 2000. According to IMF and World Bank estimates, the oil and gas sector generated more than 60 percent of Russia’s export revenues (64% in 2007), and accounted for 30 percent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country.”

Russia’s major market for natural gas is Europe.

So natural gas is not only a money maker for Russia. It is also a knife at the throat of Europe. However, it seems as if some one in Europe has grown a pair. And who would that be? A woman. German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, said "there is no such notion anymore in Georgia as Russian peacekeepers".

"There can be no Russian peacekeepers, these are just Russian forces."

Saakashvili was speaking at a news conference in Tbilisi with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, at which Merkel gave her support to Georgia's bid to join Nato, an ambition that is strongly opposed by Russia.

"Georgia will become a member of Nato if it wants to - and it does want to," Merkel said.

You know I think the correlation of forces is changing. I believe a lot of this is due to Russia overplaying its hand in Georgia.


And in other news Ukraine has announced that it will make its Russian missile shield data available to the West.

KIEV -- Ukraine said Saturday that it was ready to make its missile-warning systems available for Western countries after Russia announced that it was pulling out of a long-term cooperation agreement involving them.

A ministry statement said Russia's abrogation earlier this year of an agreement involving two tracking stations allowed Ukraine to cooperate with other countries on missile-warning systems and satellite tracking.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko issued a decree last week putting an end to Ukraine's participation in the accord in view of Russia's own abrogation of the deal.

A top Ukrainian security official, meanwhile, on Saturday discounted any notion of a separatist rebellion in Crimea as President Viktor Yushchenko proposed Kremlin talks on the issue of the Russian fleet based there.

Yushchenko enraged Moscow this week by ordering restrictions on the movement of ships in the Black Sea Fleet, based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Russia's military vowed to ignore the rules, saying the fleet answered only to Russia's president.

And not just the missile shield. The Ukraine wants to close the Black Sea to the Russian Fleet. That has got to hurt.

It looks like the firm stand of the US and the former Soviet Republics has stiffened the resolve of Germany and NATO. And who would understand how the lack of resolve on the part of its opponents could lead to a larger war than Germany? Evidently they still study the moves of the Austrian Corporal there. It is too bad France could not redeem its honor by announcing the welcoming of Georgia into NATO. However, what better way to finally rehabilitate Germany than giving them the honor?

And the Democrats? I wonder how many will survive the November election? Evidently they never took to heart the contradiction: No Blood For Oil or No Drilling For Oil? They haven't yet figured which policy to pursue. The Republicans have figured it out. Thank the Maker. And Bush? I think he will be remembered for a long time as the protector of liberty and self government in the former Soviet Republics.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Russians In Georgia Demobilize

It seems Russian forces in Georgia have gone static.

IGOETI, Georgia -- Russian forces built ramparts of earth around tanks and posted sentries on a hill in central Georgia on Saturday, seemingly digging in amid Western pressure for Moscow to withdraw its forces under a cease-fire deal signed by Russia's president.

The #1 advantage of mobile forces is that they are mobile. Digging in is not a sign of strength. It is a sign of weakness. My guess is that fuel deliveries are not enough to keep the Russian forces moving. Demobilizing makes forces brittle. Just ask the Germans who used that tactic in WW2. Or Saddam in 1991.

Near Igoeti, a Georgian journalist photographed a Russian armored personnel carrier that had broken down and was set afire by its occupants, who preferred to destroy it rather than let it fall into the hands of the Georgians.

That is interesting. American mobile forces have repair facilities they carry with them they also have carriers they can load vehicles on to carry them back to repair units that have more capability than mobile repair units.

In addition there are rumors the Russians have withdrawn their jets from the battle space. That is something you don't do in mobile warfare. It means death. Just ask Rommel.

George Patton had a few things to say about mobile warfare:

"I don't want to get any messages saying, "I am holding my position." We are not holding a Goddamned thing. Let the Germans do that. We are advancing constantly and we are not interested in holding onto anything, except the enemy's balls. We are going to twist his balls and kick the living shit out of him all of the time. Our basic plan of operation is to advance and to keep on advancing regardless of whether we have to go over, under, or through the enemy.

An American hospital ship is due into the area in about three weeks. I would think the counter attack would begin around then.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Some One Just Got A Pole Up Their Posterior

The Polish President is not a happy camper. He has issues with Germany and France.

WARSAW, Poland: Poland's president criticized the way France and Germany have handled the crisis between Russia and Georgia, accusing them Saturday of being too soft on Moscow due to their commercial ties with Russia.

Lech Kaczynski also said that European Union policy was being decided by the two EU giants without taking into consideration the views of new EU members such as Poland that once fell under Moscow's control during the Cold War.

"Once again, it turns out that the real decisions in this organization are being made between Berlin and Paris," Kaczynski said in an interview published by the daily Rzeczpospolita and also posted on his official Web site.

"Saying that the Union will have a common policy toward Russia is laughable," Kaczynski said.

He said that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were setting EU policy toward Russia, even though it is the easternmost members that have the most at stake.

By commercial ties he means Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil.

Who stands with the Poles and Ukrainians and Georgians? The Americans. The Europeans are taking the same attitude towards Russia re: Georgia as they did towards Germany in the Rhineland incident in 1936. Or Poland in 1939. It is not our problem. And if it is a problem who cares about the Georgians and besides there is nothing we can do (so true) or will do (truer still).

If France and Germany want to be de facto Russian allies I say it is time to dissolve NATO. If they want some one to come to their aid in case of war perhaps they could enlist Russian help. Or perhaps China would be interested. Or their buddies in the Islamic world. Axis of weasels indeed.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Well Calculated Moves

I was commenting at Winds of Change and some one asked if Bush had thought through his moves:

And, of course, it helps to think through what comes next.

Obviously given the moves and counter moves going on Russia has thought though its actions to the last decimal point and is advancing its position internationally.

1. Poland gets an anti-missile defense.
2. Ukraine is working to expel the Russians from the Black sea.
3. Ukraine and Poland get mutual defense pacts with the US.
4. Its international prestige declines hourly.
5. It has made abundantly clear that doing business with it is a very risky proposition.
6. Its population is declining 1/2% a year
7. Its birth rate is 1.4 - replacement rate is 2.1
8. It exports its women - brides and white slavery

And it is not over yet.

As Canaris said to a Spanish diplomat who asked a similar question about Germany's leader of the time: "Calculated nothing at all."

The next question of course is what happens when Russia cuts off Europe's gas and oil?

My take on all this - Russian oil output is on the decline with the expulsion of Western oil companies. It has to conquer or die. Germany 1939. Japan 1941.

My guess? Russia is bluffing and its bluff has been called.

===

And of its arsenal of nuclear tipped missiles - how many will work when fired? As many as 30%? 50%? Or 10%?

When you bluff it is wisest not to let your opponent see your cards. i.e. had Russia pulled out after its initial depredations it might have kept its credibility intact. Now it has to show its cards or fold. Bush is calling their bluff.

Had Europe in the run up to WW2 stood firm on Czechoslovakia, or Austria resisted the Anschluss, a general war in Europe might well have been avoided. I believe that is the motivation behind current events. Once you let the little guys get picked off it then comes to a bigger war not too much later.

”Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonor. They chose dishonor. They will have war." Winston Churchill

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Russians Loot Gori

Reports of Russians looting in Gori have been confirmed by closed circuit cameras. Euro News has a report.

The government’s accusations of looting in the deserted town have been backed up by closed-circuit television images.

For those left behind every day has brought news of another promised troop pull-out which has never materialised, while they have struggled without electricity, fuel or water.

Gori is the closest town to the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Russia has stressed the need for it to be “secured”. Soldiers have been rounding up Georgian weapons.

In Tbilisi, refugees try to pick up the pieces of their shattered lives, at least temporarily, waiting until they can return home. But the future holds few guarantees.

“It’s all so difficult but our government is helping,” said one woman. “You know I am very ashamed. We don’t have any money left and I am so hungry.”

American relief forces had better get a move on. I would think the Black Sea ports of Georgia would be a good supply route.

In any case the losses for Russia keep coming. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko wishes to have a word or two with the Russians.

"I sent an urgent request to the Russian president through official channels to start negotiations... to regulate our relations during military actions like those seen at the start of August," Yushchenko said in a statement.

Yushchenko on Wednesday signed a decree imposing new restrictions on the Black Sea fleet, that was described by Russia's foreign ministry as an "anti-Russian step."

The decree included a requirement that the Black Sea fleet, which is based in the port of Sevastopol, seek the permission of Ukraine's armed forces "at least 72 hours prior to ships or aircraft crossing the Ukrainian border."

The announcement heightened fears that Ukraine, a close ally of Tbilisi, could be caught up in a conflict that has raged in recent days between Russia and Georgia.

On Thursday a Ukrainian official said the decree would require Moscow to ask permission before returning ships active off the coast of Georgia.

Ships without ports are like aircraft without airports. Eventually they run out of fuel. The Russians are not well known for their at sea replenishment. Something the American Navy is very good at. When I was being transferred to my ship, the USS Bainbridge, I was at sea for three days on an oiler. While at sea I was high lined over to my ship. Nothing like being in mid air with nothing but water below while traveling at about 10 knots. Bracing. The Bainbridge was a nuclear ship, but it carried oil to service the destroyers in the Enterprise task group. Before I went over oil was transferred from the oiler to the Bainbridge.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Attack Of The Russian Trolls

If anyone has information on the attack of the Russian trolls - examples, how to spot them, ip addys etc. Please leave a comment. It will help us expose them and help them improve their game.

Secretary Of State Rice To Vacation In Tblisi

That is a take off on the "joke" going around that the Russian troops are "touring" the beautiful Georgian countryside. This has to be another complication for the Russians. This whole Georgian episode is spinning out of control for them. It has got to be bad for business. And if there is anything the gangsters in charge of Russia hate it is bad business.

A U.S. military cargo plane is heading to Georgia with relief supplies and Bush said he directed Defense Secretary Robert Gates to organize a humanitarian aid effort. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will travel to Georgia to confer with President Mikheil Saakashvili.

``Russia's ongoing actions raise serious questions about its intentions in Georgia and the region,'' Bush said today at the White House in Washington. He said he was concerned about reports that Russian forces continue to move through Georgia in spite of an agreement on a cease-fire.

``The United States and the world expect Russia to honor that commitment'' to halt military operations, Bush said. He held out the threat that the U.S. would withdraw its support for Russia's ``aspirations'' in diplomatic, economic and security organizations.

I wonder when the mopes in the Kremlin (oops Russia) will throw in the towel. The Russian people admire strength. What will happen when they figure out that the vaunted Russian strength is mostly bluff? Sales of vodka are going to spike. The hangover is going to be a bitch. Hair of the dog is not going to cut it. They are going to have to eat the whole dog.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

There Is A Fly In The Ointment

The Air Force Times reports that the US is going to fly supplies into Georgia.

Air Force officials are putting plans together to fly supplies into Georgia following Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s order to end all military operations in the former Soviet state.

Air Force C-17s flew all of Georgia’s 2,000 troops deployed in Iraq to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, on Sunday and Monday after the Georgian government recalled the troops and asked the U.S. to do so.

Pentagon officials are not releasing when or where the cargo aircraft will disembark or whether the supplies are humanitarian or military at this time due to security issues, according to Lt. Col. Elizabeth Hibner, a Defense Department spokeswoman.

“We will hopefully be able to say more this afternoon,” she said.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin criticized the U.S. for flying Georgia’s troops home from Iraq while Russia’s troops advanced into the country after fighting broke out over the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

That is going to complicate the Russian's problems.

And it looks like America is going to stand up for one of its allies. NATO or no NATO.

Obama has to be shitting a brick over this. Suppose it goes on over the Dem Convention.? With a large majority of Americans supporting the Georgians it will be interesting to see how he triangulates this one. No Blood For Oil indeed.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Some One Got Taught A Lesson

The war is over in Georgia and it looks, from the oulines of the peace agreement that Georgia won. I predicted that this would be the outcome in Perhaps They Miscalculated and Winning. Let us start with a report by the Volokh Conspiracy on the main points of the agreement.

Russian agreements to conclude all military operations, return Russian armed forces to the line preceding the beginning of operations and not use force again in Georgia.

In return, Georgia would return its armed forces to their normal and permanent locations.

Both sides would provide free access for humanitarian assistance; and international consideration of the issues of South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be undertaken.

Now compare this to Russia's stated objectives at the start of the conflict.

MOSCOW, August 12 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's foreign minister said on Tuesday that the country rules out negotiations with Georgia's president, and insisted that Georgia must no longer have a peacekeeping presence in breakaway South Ossetia.

Well isn't that interesting. Yesterday they were insisting that Georgia leave South Ossetia.

Today in the peace agreement all troops will return to their positions they occupied before the start of the conflict. That does not sound like Russia met that objective.

Four days on from Georgia's ground and air offensive to seize control of South Ossetia, Russian forces have forced a Georgian retreat from the province in what Moscow has labeled a major peace enforcement operation to prevent further incursions.

Sergei Lavrov, speaking at a joint news conference with Finland's foreign minister in Moscow, highlighted the severity of the crimes committed by Georgian forces in their attack on South Ossetia, and said Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili can no longer be considered a partner.

I can't find a link now, but at the start of the conflict Russians were asking the Georgian President to step down and that he be tried for war crimes. That is not going to happen.

What else was Russia saying?

"We can hardly agree to this, as it implies that Georgian so-called peacekeepers should be in South Ossetia... Georgian peacekeepers cannot be there. They committed crimes, shooting their own [Russian] colleagues, with whom they were serving."

And yet, agree to it they did. A return of all forces to their positions at the start of the conflict. And still people say the Russians won and met their objectives. I don't think so.

What most people fail to realize is that a fighting retreat is not the same as a defeat. In mobile positional warfare what you want to do is to draw the opposition in an untenable position so that you can deliver a counter stroke when he is fully extended. Draw out the supply lines and then attack the enemy's rear where he is the weakest and his supply lines are the most vulnerable. Avoid smashing into the spear head. Break the shaft.

My take is that the Georgians had done that and were about to deliver a counter stroke. What do you do at such a point if you want to keep looking good in the world of public opinion? Declare victory and prepare to beat feet.

"The best thing would be for him to resign," Lavrov said, while stressing that Russia has "no plans to force anyone from power - this is not in our political culture at all."

Yeah. Sure. Tell it to the Marines. That was not their position at the beginning.

What does the president of Georgia have to say?

Saakashvili said he did not want to leave "any doubt" about whether Georgia's territorial integrity is up for discussion. "This is out of the question," he said.

He said he would welcome an international process for security arrangements.

"Georgia needs to get back to normal," he said. "For all the people who are suffering out there, this is good news."

In Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said: "I wanted to make very clear that the United States stands for the territorial integrity of Georgia, for the sovereignty of Georgia; that we support its democratically elected government and people, and are reviewing options for humanitarian and reconstruction assistance to Georgia. But the most important thing right now is that these military operations need to stop."

And what would the territorial integrity and internationally recognized borders include? South Ossetia.

Here is more of what the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had to say.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said at an early morning news conference with Sarkozy his country would not allow its territorial integrity to be put into doubt under any peace agreement.

"The territorial integrity and belonging of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Georgia can never be put under doubt."

A key reference to negotiation on the "future status" of two rebel zones in Georgia was cut from the peace plan, they said, with talks to focus instead on how to ensure "security and stability" there.

Why would Russia give up its ambitions to keep South Ossetia if it was winning the war? It makes no sense. Let me repeat a paragraph I posted in Perhaps They Miscalculated.

However, they miscalculated by not announcing in advance “limited objectives”. Now it will look like they have been defeated by a fifth rate power with American friends. Bad for morale. Bad for their world image.

So far the Russian spin machine seems to be working well. Most people believe Russia met its objectives and Georgia got taught a lesson.

I think Russia got taught a lesson. Coming up against American trained troops is no cake walk. Russia might be able to defeat such troops if it applied enough power but it would be at an unacceptable cost.

Some one got taught a lesson. I don't think it was the Georgians.

H/T Instapundit

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Winning

A lot of folks around the 'net are saying Russia won in Georgia. So let me pose a question. If the Russians were winning in Georgia why would they stop after 5 days? It is not their way.

Perhaps They Miscalculated

There is an excellent discussion of the dust up in the Republic of Georgia going on at The Belmont Club. There is lots of news about an impending Naval Blockade of Iran.

Operation Brimstone ended only one week ago. This was the joint US/UK/French naval war games in the Atlantic Ocean preparing for a naval blockade of Iran and the likely resulting war in the Persian Gulf area. The massive war games included a US Navy supercarrier battle group, an US Navy expeditionary carrier battle group, a Royal Navy carrier battle group, a French nuclear hunter-killer submarine plus a large number of US Navy cruisers, destroyers and frigates playing the "enemy force".

The lead American ship in these war games, the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN71) and its Carrier Strike Group Two (CCSG-2) are now headed towards Iran along with the USS Ronald Reagon (CVN76) and its Carrier Strike Group Seven (CCSG-7) coming from Japan.

They are joining two existing USN battle groups in the Gulf area: the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN72) with its Carrier Strike Group Nine (CCSG-9); and the USS Peleliu (LHA-5) with its expeditionary strike group.

Likely also under way towards the Persian Gulf is the USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) and its expeditionary strike group, the UK Royal Navy HMS Ark Royal (R07) carrier battle group, assorted French naval assets including the nuclear hunter-killer submarine Amethyste and French Naval Rafale fighter jets on-board the USS Theodore Roosevelt. These ships took part in the just completed Operation Brimstone.

That is very interesting. Very interesting indeed. A joint American and European task force including France? What is the world coming to? No good for the Iranians to be sure.

So a commenter at the Belmont Club on the Georgia thread pops up and asks if the excitement in Georgia will have an effect on the coming Iran operation?

Will it frustrate planned action on Iran? Yes.

Well I'm not going to give a set up like that a pass (I blog after all). So here is my response:

No. Russia is now tied down. Their freedom to act has just been reduced. You know: hold ‘em by the nose and then kick them in the ass.

The Russians now have what? 30K - 40K troops tied down and their attention concentrated at the cost of 1,000 Americans in the field + a few hundred advisers. Plus there are Israeli advisers in Georgia as well.

Americans are taking no casualties and the Russians seem to be bloodied.

The time for a counter strike at Russia’s wind pipe (the Roki Tunnel) is when they have fully extended. To make such a strike before that reduces the effect. As a commenter at the Belmont Club link said they have learned nothing from 1908. Evidently we have.

We will see how stupid the Russians are in the next few days. If they keep advancing while taking losses - i.e. they are goaded into ill considered action - they become more vulnerable every day. If they retreat they lose face. The Georgians need to keep retreating while fighting delaying actions to maintain limited contact and then cut off the Russian wind pipe. In the immortal words of Groucho Marx - stucco.

It is reported that Putin’s face turned to ash at the Olympics. Perhaps things got out of hand before he was ready to act. We have disrupted Putin’s timing. i.e. a spoiling attack.

In re: American politics. This is not going to help Obama with the muddled middle. Americans turn to warriors in dangerous times, not community organizers.

So what have the Russians decided to do?

The President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev issued an order Tuesday for the termination of the military operation of the Russian Army in Georgia.

Medvedev announced his decision during a meeting with the Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov and the Head of the General Staff of the Army Nikolay Makarov, Interfax reported.

The operation for "coercing the Georgian side into making peace" was ended after a report of the Defense Ministry made it clear the goals of Russia's military operation was achieved.

If that report is true (and it is very likely true because it has come from a Russian news agency) the Russians know that they are in a very dangerous position militarily and may be beating feet to save their army.

However, they miscalculated by not announcing in advance “limited objectives”. Now it will look like they have been defeated by a fifth rate power with American friends. Bad for morale. Bad for their world image. Having Putin at the Olympics at the start when the generals would be in control with orders to do nothing except to respond to attacks was a master stroke not an error.

Proving once again that Bush plays the game better than any one else currently on the world stage.

Note: no reported American deaths so far. It looks like the Russians got their noses bloodied and America barely lifted a finger. My guess is that Russia was saving its move into Georgia for the start of the planned blockade of Iran. That is not going to work is it?

The initiative in world affairs has shifted.

What can we expect next once the blockade starts? Hizballah will probably attack Israel. However, this time it will come as no surprise to the Israels and my guess is that this time they will not only take out Hizballah but also Syria as well. The Stupistinians in Gaza will also likely get their just deserts. Provided they heed their paymasters in Iran.

It will be a whole new world come 20 Jan. 2009. A lot of unfinished business will have been finished. Self government is on the move. It will not be denied.

And American politics? That poor Obama doesn't stand a chance.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Giving Advice

According to The American Forces Press Service American planes are flying into Georgia.

WASHINGTON, Aug. 11, 2008 – The U.S.-assisted redeployment of Georgian troops from Iraq to their home country should be completed today, a Pentagon spokesman said.

American military aircraft began shuttling the brigade of Georgian forces yesterday, as clashes with Russian forces intensified since fighting broke out last week in the breakaway region of South Ossetia in Georgia, a former Soviet republic.

The U.S.-provided transport of the 2,000-strong contingent adheres to an agreement that U.S. and Georgian government officials arranged before Russian tanks and troops crossed Georgia’s border on Aug. 8, Pentagon Spokesman Bryan Whitman said today.

“We are fulfilling our agreement with the Georgian government that in an emergency we would assist them in redeploying their troops,” Whitman said. “We are honoring that commitment and we are following through with that.”

That is definitely going to complicate Russian efforts.

Here is another complication for the Russians:

some 130 U.S. military personnel serving as trainers to national forces in Georgia will remain in the war-torn country, Whitman said. He added that all U.S. trainers there are safe and accounted for, and that presently there are no plans to remove them from Georgia.

Georgia declared its independence from the then-Soviet Union in 1991. However, many South Ossetia residents continue to profess Russian allegiance.

The situation was already tense when Russian tanks and troops crossed the border into South Ossetia, where they were aided by regional separatists. Fighting escalated a day later in and around Tskhinvali, South Ossetia’s capital, as Russian aircraft were reported to have bombed that city, as well as parts of Georgia.

That has got to be a move that will give the Russians some pause. Look at how much trouble a few American advisers and a steady flow of American weapons caused the Russians in Afghanistan.

The loss of Georgia after a Russian take over could give other restive Russian provinces ideas. Normally the Russians try to think these things out. If they are acting impulsively and trying to regain their lost empire they may get another bloody nose. Further weakening their self image and reducing their standing in the world. Now if we could only get the Euros off the Russian oil and natural gas teat we might start to regain some strategic leverage with the Russians.

Save Georgia and the Europeans from Russian domination Mrs. Pelosi. Drill for American oil.

H/T Wretchard of The Belmont Club who goes into much greater depth and looks at some of the tactics and strategy in the war.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Obama Eats His Waffle

Obama has a couple of statements on Gerogia.

"I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict. Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full scale war. Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected. All sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia, and the United States, the United Nations Security Council, and the international community should fully support a peaceful resolution to this crisis."

That was his first crack. Clearly a waffle.

Now catch his second statement on the subject:

"I condemn Russia's aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an immediate ceasefire... Russia must stop its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia."

I think we have direct evidence here that Obama has eaten his waffle.

Cross Posted at Classical Values