Doubled Or Tripled?

This is not about baseball. It is about the recent defection of an Iranian General. This latest report makes me even more sceptical about his defection.

AN Iranian general who defected to the West last month had been spying on Iran since 2003 when he was recruited on an overseas business trip, according to Iranian sources.

This weekend Brigadier General Ali Reza Asgari, 63, the former deputy defence minister, is understood to be undergoing debriefing at a Nato base in Germany after he escaped from Iran, followed by his family.

A daring getaway via Damascus was organised by western intelligence agencies after it became clear that his cover was about to be blown. Iran’s notorious secret service, the Vavak, is believed to have suspected that he was a high-level mole.

According to the Iranian sources, the escape took several months to arrange. At least 10 close members of his family had to flee the country. Asgari has two sons, a daughter and several grandchildren and it is believed that all, including his daughters-in-law, are now out of Iran. Their final destination is unknown.

If he was suspect why would Iran allow his family to escape? That makes no sense. Unless his job is to feed misinformation to whoever he is currently talking to. In other words I don't think he has just been doubled. I suspect he has been tripled.

In 1997 he was appointed deputy defence minister in charge of internal investigations. He uncovered several cases of embezzlement in the Republican Guard that made him unpopular. He was pushed aside after President Mahmoud Ahmadine-jad came to power in 2006. The two had been rivals for many years and Asgari realised that his days were numbered.

During an overseas business trip in 2003 he is said to have met a new business partner, who turned out to be a foreign intelligence officer. “Ali Reza was a wealthy man even before 2003,” said an Iranian source. “Since 2003 he has become a very wealthy man.”

Yet he would have to leave much of his wealth behind. I'm sure the west would be in a position to make up for at least some of his losses. If the regime falls he might consider Beverly Hills for his place of residence. They have an Iranian Mayor.

H/T Captain's Quarters

A Set Up?

I'm getting more suspicious of the defection of Iranian General Ali Reza Asghari with every new report.

The Jerusalem Post reports:

Former Iranian General and assistant defense minister Ali Rez Asghari left Iran using a new passport and pseudonym and managed to smuggle important intelligence documents, according to a report published Friday morning by London based newspaper Asharaq Alawsat.

According to the report, the missing Iranian general was carrying documents and maps of Iran's military and intelligence infrastructure as well as information regarding the relations between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hizbullah and the Islamic Jihad.

This is either one of the greatest intelligence coups of recent memory or the General is a false defector. I'm leaning to the false defector side of the equation.

Maps, documents, new passport? Normally people pulling off one of these deals try to leave without documents. They attract attention and create suspicion if found. Plus if it was an American or Israeli operation they would normally provide fresh identity documents. To avoid any compromised Iranian papers.

One must account for the fact that sometimes improbable things happen in the intel world. However, I'm sceptical.

Missing Iranian Rumors

A few days ago I posted something on a missing Iranian General who was deeply involed in the Iranian intellegance community and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

A bit of speculation (disguised as news) has come my way.

Haaretz says Missing Iranian former defense official has 'fled to U.S.'. Which would imply voluntary travel.

The Iranian former deputy defense minister who disappeared in neighboring Turkey last month is said to have sought asylum in the United States. Tehran said was Ali Reza Asghari went missing while on a private trip to Turkey.

The pan-Arab newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat on Tuesday quoted high-profile sources as saying that Asghari left for the U.S. shortly after arriving in the Turkish capital.

Earlier Tuesday, Iran's top police chief accused Western intelligence services of possibly abducting Asghari, who is also a retired general in the elite Revolutionary Guards.

Certainly the man has relatives in Iran. He must know that they would be at risk. If the US has him how can they protect his family? A lot of questions here.

Asghari had arrived in Turkey on a private visit from Damascus, Syria, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported Tuesday.

Iran's top police chief, General Esmaeil Ahmadi Moghaddam, said Iran was investigating Asghari's fate with the cooperation of the Turkish police.

"It is likely that Asghari has been abducted by the Western intelligence services," IRNA quoted the Iranian police general as saying. The general did not elaborate.

If that is the line Iran is taking then his family (except for questioning) is safe for the time being. They will be surrounded by minders, however.

According to a British Daily Telegraph report, Iranian intelligence official Asghari is also likely to have intimate knowledge of Iran's defense establishment and nuclear development program.

Although Asghari's disappearance in Turkey sparked allegations of a Mossad and CIA-linked kidnapping, Haaretz has learned that he may have defected.

Asghari served in the senior defense post under former defense minister General Ali Samahani. Israeli media have said that for many years, Asghari was the most senior Iranian intelligence official in Lebanon, with responsibility for Iran's ties with Hezbollah.

High level defections (if it is a defection and not a snatch or counter-intel operation) would indicate a regime on its last legs. An intel officer would be aware of the real situation and make his calculations accordingly.

This case of Soviet defection deception might help shed some light on the current case. Or it might just muddy the waters. Intelligence operations are like that. Our own counter intel guy James Jesus Angleton gives us a look at the wilderness of mirrors, where nothing is as it seems and paranoia can strike deep. Occupational hazard.

Update: 08 Mar'07 0521z

The Washington Post feeds a few more rumors into the wilderness of mirrors.

A former Iranian deputy defense minister who once commanded the Revolutionary Guard has left his country and is cooperating with Western intelligence agencies, providing information on Hezbollah and Iran's ties to the organization, according to a senior U.S. official.

Ali Rez Asgari disappeared last month during a visit to Turkey. Iranian officials suggested yesterday that he may have been kidnapped by Israel or the United States. The U.S. official said Asgari is willingly cooperating. He did not divulge Asgari's whereabouts or specify who is questioning him, but made clear that the information Asgari is offering is fully available to U.S. intelligence.

That would tend to support the fact that the Israelis have him and are wringing him dry. By any means necessary. Including being nice. Since the Israeli public is convinced of Iranian ill intent, there would be few repercussions from "excessive pressure" on the General.

Note that ties between Israeli and American intelligence go back to Angleton.

It is wise to also note that the Washington Post rumors are unsourced.

Iran's official news agency, IRNA, quoted the country's top police chief, Brig. Gen. Esmaeil Ahmadi-Moqaddam, as saying that Asgari was probably kidnapped by agents working for Western intelligence agencies. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that Asgari was in the United States. Another U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, denied that report and suggested that Asgari's disappearance was voluntary and orchestrated by the Israelis. A spokesman for President Bush's National Security Council did not return a call for comment.

The Israeli government denied any connection to Asgari. "To my knowledge, Israel is not involved in any way in this disappearance," said Mark Regev, the spokesman for Israel's foreign ministry.

So he disappeared without Israeli help. OK. Maybe the Americans got him and then gave him to the Israelis.

The waters are definitely getting muddy. It becomes hard to tell what is true, what is false, and what is so out there that you can't even believe the opposite.

An Iranian official, who agreed to discuss Asgari on the condition of anonymity, said that Iranian intelligence is unsure of Asgari's whereabouts but that he may have been offered money, probably by Israel, to leave the country. The Iranian official said Asgari was thought to be in Europe. "He has been out of the loop for four or five years now," the official said.

His last known travel arrangements were from Damascus, Syria to Istanbul, Turkey. So maybe he was not so out of the loop and the Iranian official is trying to do damage control by discrediting the General's information.

Former Mossad director Danny Yatom, who is now a member of Israel's parliament, said he believes Asgari defected to the West. "He is very high-caliber," Yatom said. "He held a very, very senior position for many long years in Lebanon. He was in effect commander of the Revolutionary Guards" there.

Ram Igra, a former Mossad officer, said Asgari spent much of the 1980s and 1990s overseeing Iran's efforts to support, finance, arm and train Hezbollah. The State Department lists the Shiite Lebanese group as a terrorist organization.

"He lived in Lebanon and, in effect, was the man who built, promoted and founded Hezbollah in those years," Igra told Israeli state radio. "If he has something to give the West, it is in this context of terrorism and Hezbollah's network in Lebanon."

This is very likely. It is also possible that the General was priviy to the usual scuttlebutt inside his organization. If he was a counter intelligence officer he would be very valuable indeed. Willing or otherwise.

The Australian has a report about the General's involvement in the Iranian nuclear program.

If General Asghari has gone over to the West, or been abducted, he would be a major source of information on Iran's nuclear program and a host of other security matters. Before serving as deputy defence minister he had been a general with the elite Revolutionary Guard.

Apart from strategic matters, General Asghari is reportedly privy to information about two affairs, one of great interest to Israel and the other to the US.

Debkafile, an Israeli website dealing with intelligence matters, reported this week that the CIA was interested in General Asghari because he was allegedly involved in the abduction two months ago of five US soldiers from a compound in Karbala, Iraq. The five were subsequently executed.

If this is true, we are already at war with Iran, which I noted in An Act Of War, where I detailed the abduction of Iranian "diplomats" by American troops. The abduction of the American soldiers was supposedly in retaliation for the American abduction of the Iranian "diplomats".

Some one is working to bring things to a boil. Possibly both sides. Or all sides. Depending on how you figure it.

A Newsmax report quotes some Iranian exiles.

A former high-ranking Iranian government official, Brig. Gen. Alireza Asghari, 63, has defected to the United States, Iranian exiles and other sources told Newsmax today.

Asghari had access to highly-classified intelligence information and "defected to the Americans with lots of secrets," respected Iranian journalist Alireza Nourizadeh told Newsmax from London.

The disappearance of the former Revolutionary Guards General has created a panic in Tehran.

Gen. Asghari left Iran on an officially-sanctioned trip to Damascus, Syria, then went missing during a stop-over in Istanbul, Turkey on February 7, according to statements by Iranian government officials in Tehran.

Nourizadeh believes he had been sent to Damascus to supervise an arms deal between Iran and Syria that was signed last June during a trip to Tehran by Syria's defense minister.

"It is possible that former deputy defense minister Asghari was kidnapped by Western intelligence services because of his Defense Ministry background," the head of Iran's national police, Gen. Ismail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, said in Tehran yesterday.

But Newsmax has learned from Iranian sources that Gen. Asghari's family also managed to leave Iran just before he went missing, and that he sold his house in the Narmak area of Tehran in December.

That would tend to indicate defection. However, the selling of the house is an argument against defection. The last thing you want to do in a paranoid regime is to make them think you aren't coming back.

Maybe the Iranians have oversold the dummy. Even false information is useful. Provided you know it is false.

Gen. Asghari's 10-day trip to Syria was approved by the military judicial authorities, sources inside Iran told Newsmax. Two days after he arrived in Damascus, his family managed to leave Iran, the sources said.

The main impediment to defections by high-ranking Iranian officials is fear that any family members left behind will be arrested, tortured, and possibly killed.

Very odd. Of course as with any such story rumors often outrun reality.

Alireza Nourizadeh, the Iranian journalist based in London, tells Newsmax that Gen. Asghari planned his defection carefully.

"While he was in Damascus, he sent a fax or an email to Tehran saying that one of his contacts, who was an arms dealer, was in Turkey and wanted to meet him," he told Newsmax. "So they gave him permission to go to Turkey, where he defected."

The Iranian military attaché in Istanbul had reserved a room for Gen. Asghari at the Continental hotel, Nourizadeh said, but Asghari complained that it was not safe. Instead, he booked three rooms at the Gilan Hotel, in the Tacsim district which is popular among Iranians. "After calling a relative in Tehran, he left the hotel at 6:30 PM and disappeared," he said.

The arms dealer has to be a suspect in the plot. If he was a Western asset his cover is now blown.

There are a lot of threads to untangle. Even if this is a false defection the Iranians are going to have to blow the covers on some of their agents to give the General credibility. If it was a real defection the Western agencies may have been willing to blow the covers of some of their operatives to get the General.

All we can take from this so far is that nothing is what it seems.

The Missing Iranian

A fomer member of the Iranian Defence Ministry has gone missing in Turkey.

Ankara's diplomatic and political circles are currently filled with gossip over a missing Iranian, thought by some to be a spy.

Iranian citizen Ali Rızari Asqhari, 63, who recently retired from the Iranian Defense Ministry, disappeared in Istanbul on Feb. 7, daily Hürriyet reported on Monday. Iran has made a diplomatic move, yesterday sending a delegation to Turkey to obtain more information on the missing man.

There are hints of Israeli involvement. Or American involvement.

A senior Iranian general, Ali-Raza Asgari, went missing nearly a month ago in Istanbul and Iranian officials claim that Israel and the United States may have had a hand in his disappearance.

Several days ago, Iranian website Baztab, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported that during the 1980s Asgari held a senior position in the Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon , and that following his return to Iran he was appointed deputy defense minister.

No official source in Iran has commented on the report about the disappearance, but a top official told Baztab that "some of the claims in the report are unequivocally incorrect."

The general's disappearance was first reported at the end of February in the Saudi newspaper al-Watan. The paper said that at the beginning of February Asgari visited Damascus and later flew o Istanbul in Turkey, where he checked into a hotel.

"Several Turkish citizens reserved a room for Asgari at the Gilan Hotel in Istanbul and paid for it, but haven't heard from him since," the paper stated.

So some claims are wrong. That leaves the option that others are correct. Maybe they got the hotel wrong and everything else is correct. Or perhaps it is a disinformation project. An Iranian delegation went to Turkey to check up on Asqhari so maybe he is important. Or maybe he is Iranian bait with nothing useful to tell. We probably will never know the truth.

The Jerusalem Post has an interesting biographical detail.

Askari is a former general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and served in the cabinet of former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami.

H/T Michael Ledeen

An Act Of War

It was reported on Janurary 12th that the US attacked an Iranian Embassy in Iraq and detained five "diplomats".

BAGHDAD: U.S. troops in Iraq raided an Iranian consulate in the Kurdish city of Arbil in northern Iraq and captured six staff members early Thursday, according to Iraqi state television reports.

Later Iran's official news agency IRNA confirmed the development and explained that the troops disarmed the guards manning the gates of the consulate and entered the office building and took the six staff members into custody.

Well a question came up. Are the "diplomats" diplomats?

The answer. Some are not.

BAGHDAD, Jan. 18 — Iraq is carrying out an extensive review of its diplomatic protocols with Iran and may place new restrictions on them, the Iraqi foreign minister said in an interview on Thursday, after Iranian military officials and diplomats were picked up in three separate American actions here.

The raids have deeply embarrassed Iraqi officials, who say that the United States did not consult with them before it detained the Iranians, who were properly accredited visitors to this country. At the same time, Iraqi officials have been put in an awkward position by their neighbor, as the Iraqis concede that at least some of the Iranians appear to have been working with Shiite militias, just as the Americans claimed.

As a result, Iraq has decided to tighten diplomatic controls on Iranian officials, insisting on detailed itineraries for their missions here, closer coordination with Baghdad and pledges that the officials will not work with armed groups outside the government, said Hoshyar Zebari, the foreign minister.

The Iraqis seem strained over this. Which is good. We are operating on American time now.

The US Command has a few things to say on the subject.

The U.S. military insists the Iranians in its custody are not diplomats. Earlier in the week Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, told a news conference there was no doubt about that.

"We have statements made by people in detention and we have records that give us great confidence that these are in fact intelligence operatives," Casey said.

Here is a another report of what the "diplomats" were up to.

One of the six was released and U.S. officials said the five still in custody were linked to an Iranian Revolutionary Guard faction that funds and arms insurgents and militias in Iraq.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari was not available for comment, his office said.

Tehran denied the five detained Iranians had been involved in financing and arming insurgents in Iraq.

"The capture of Iranian diplomats is an insult to the Iraqi government and people," ambassador Hassan Kazimi Qomi said in a news conference at the Iranian embassy in Baghdad. Iraqi "Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told me that they will be released within days."

Asked why he believed the Americans carried the raid, Qomi said through a translator from Farsi to Arabic that "they want to destabilize relations between Iraq and Iran."

An insult to Iran? Actually under the Geneva Conventions it is an Act of War.

However, it looks like America has been getting ready to go after Iran for some time. First off there was a report of an aircraft carrier battle group heading for the area around 8 Jan.

The following other capital ships are in the area or near by as of 23 Jan. '07 - 0629z.

Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG):
USS Boxer (LHD 4) - Persian Gulf
USS Dubuque (LPD 8) - Persian Gulf
USS Comstock (LSD 45) - Gulf of Oman

Bataan Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG):
USS Bataan (LHD 5) - Mediterranean Sea
USS Shreveport (LPD 12) - Mediterranean Sea
USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) - Mediterranean Sea

Amphibious Warfare Ships:
USS Nassau (LHA 4) - Atlantic Ocean
USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) - Atlantic Ocean
USS Ashland (LSD 48) - Indian Ocean

In addition A Brigade of the 82nd Airborne heads to Iraq.

It looks like a squadron of F-117 Stealth Fighters are headed to North Korea to keep them from making trouble while we are busy with Iran.

The Pieces Are Being Put in Place
Col. Sam Gardiner

[Sam Gardiner is a retired colonel of the US Air Force. He has taught strategy and military operations at the National War College, Air War College and Naval War College.]

The pieces are moving. They'll be in place by the end of February. The United States will be able to escalate military operations against Iran.

The second carrier strike group leaves the U.S. West Coast on January 16. It will be joined by naval mine clearing assets from both the United States and the UK. Patriot missile defense systems have also been ordered to deploy to the Gulf.

Maybe as a guard against North Korea seeing operations focused on Iran as a chance to be aggressive, a squadron of F-117 stealth fighters has just been deployed to Korea.

This has to be called escalation. We have to remind ourselves, just as Iran is supporting groups inside Iraq, the United States is supporting groups inside Iran. Just as Iran has special operations troops operating inside Iraq, we've read the United States has special operations troops operating inside Iran.

Just as Iran is supporting Hamas, two weeks ago we found out the United States is supporting arms for Abbas. Just as Iran and Syria are supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon were now learning the White House has approved a finding to allow the CIA to support opposition groups inside Lebanon. Just as Iran is supporting Syria, we've learned recently that the United States is going to fund Syrian opposition groups.

We learned this week the President authorized an attack on the Iranian liaison office in Irbil.

The White House keeps saying there are no plans to attack Iran. Obviously, the facts suggest otherwise. Equally as clear, the Iranians will read what the Administrations is doing not what it is saying.

Another carrier is headed for the Pacific.

SAN DIEGO – Barely six months after returning from its maiden deployment, the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan will leave its Coronado pier within weeks for a cruise in the western Pacific Ocean.

Two Navy spokesmen said the Reagan probably will spend several months filling in for the Kitty Hawk, the Japan-based carrier that is unavailable because it's undergoing routine maintenance. The sources requested anonymity because Pentagon policy forbids them from providing such information before an official announcement.

The Reagan's unexpected deployment is an indirect result of President Bush's new decision to station a second carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf, the spokesmen said.

The Reagan will fulfill patrol duties in the western Pacific in place of the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group, which Bush sent to the Persian Gulf as added muscle to supplement the strike group of the Virginia-based carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower.

The Stennis strike group – which includes three aviation squadrons from San Diego as well as the San Diego-based cruiser Antietam, destroyer Preble and frigate Rentz – was scheduled for a routine cruise in the western Pacific.

The date of the Reagan's departure hasn't been set, but its crew is expected to receive deployment orders within a week, the spokesmen said. The tour is expected to last a few months.

The ship likely will deploy without its carrier air wing or escort ships, relying for support instead on vessels and aircraft already stationed in Japan.

The Reagan, commissioned in 2003, arrived in San Diego the following year and completed its maiden deployment in July.

It is really unusual for a carrier to travel without its task group and air wing. Very unusual.

However it does allow for the ships and air group to be a reserve to make up for losses in any attack on Iran. It also allows the carrier to deploy at flank speed. Something difficult to do when oil burners have to keep up with a nuke carrier.

There appears to be Naval support for operations off Somalia. Which is not too far from Iran. As the carrier cruises.

2007/1/9 DUBAI, United Arab Emirates

(AP)In a further escalation of American involvement in Somalia, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower arrived off the war-ravaged country's coast and its aircraft have begun flying intelligence-gathering missions over Somalia, the U.S. military said Tuesday.

The U.S. Central Command re-tasked the USS Eisenhower to Somalia last week from its mission supporting NATO-led forces in Afghanistan, said U.S. Navy spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Charlie Brown in Bahrain, where the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is based.

The announcement comes a day after at least one U.S. Special Forces AC-130 gunship launched a deadly strike against several suspected members of al-Qaida in Somalia. Brown said the Navy had no supporting role in U.S. attacks in Somalia.

The U.S. launched at least two more airstrikes against terror targets in Somalia on Tuesday, a Somali official and witnesses said.

The carrier joins three other U.S. warships _ two guided-missile cruisers and an amphibious landing ship _ already conducting anti-terror operations off the Somali coast, the Navy said.

Brown said he did not know how long the Eisenhower's redeployment would last. "We'll be there as long as required," he told The Associated Press.

On top of all that it appears that NATO is taking an interest.

NATO has begun taking a major interest in intelligence information about Iran's nuclear program, according to Israeli defense officials who recently held talks with senior officers in the Western military alliance.

NATO's interest stems from growing concern that diplomacy will ultimately fail, the Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post this week, and that military action will be necessary to stop Iran's race to obtain nuclear weapons.

There is growing criticism of Ahmadinejad in Iran.

TEHRAN, Jan 16, 2007 (UPI via COMTEX) -- There is growing criticism of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran, including a parliamentary drive to summon him to answer questions, a report says.

Even previously friendly hard-line newspapers have taken him to task for being too hostile towards the West since the passage of a U.N. sanctions resolution, the BBC said.

Carrier battle groups start showing up unexpectedly in the neighborhood and people get nerveous.

Despite all that Iran is keeping out 38 IAEA nuclear inspectors because they are upset at UN resolutions pertaining to their nuclear program. Makes sense.

Say. Didn't Saddam go down that road? Those boys better be careful.

Nasser Karimi, The Associated Press
Published: Monday, January 22, 2007

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran has barred 38 nuclear inspectors on a United Nations list from entering the country, the foreign minister said Monday in what appeared to be retaliation for the UN sanctions imposed last month.

The rejected officials are on a list of potential inspectors drawn up by the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit and monitor Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“The act of rejecting some inspectors is legal and in accordance with the agency’s regulations,” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told the official Islamic Republic News Agency. He said others on the UN nuclear watchdog’s list remain eligible, but did not explain how Iran decided which inspectors to bar.

The IAEA “submits a long list of inspectors to member countries and the countries have the right to oppose the visit by some inspectors,” Mottaki said.

Last month, the UN Security Council imposed limited trade sanctions on Iran over its refusal to cease uranium enrichment, a process that can produce the material for nuclear energy or bombs.

It looks like Iran is preparing for war. I expect with all this going on one side or the other will instigate some provocation the other can't resist. My guess would be US Special Forces in Iran doing some kind of mischief that Iran would have to respond to. After all we have already tried the diplomatic route.

The drum-beating suggested Iran does not intend to back down in its standoff with the West. It could also aim to rally the public behind the government and silence increasingly bold criticism at home of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's antagonism toward the United States.

Iran's leaders have touted the possibility of a U.S. attack since President Bush announced on Jan. 9 the deployment of a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf region, a move U.S. officials have said is a show of strength directed at Iran.

Last month, the Security Council imposed limited trade sanctions on Iran over its refusal to cease uranium enrichment, a process that can produce fuel for nuclear energy or bombs.

The Iranian military on Monday began five days of maneuvers near the northern city of Garmsar, about 60 miles southeast of Tehran, state television reported. The military tested its Zalzal-1 and Fajr-5 missiles, the report said.

The Zalzal-1, able to carry a 1,200-pound payload, has a range of 200 miles. That would put Iraq, U.S. bases in the Gulf, and eastern Saudi Arabia in its range. The Fajr-5, with a 1,800-pound payload, has a range of 35 miles.

Neither could reach Israel, but Iran has other missiles that can. It was not known whether the missiles tested are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The Iranian show of strength came as the American aircraft carrier USS Stennis was heading toward the Gulf, joining the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in a beefed-up American military presence. The Stennis is expected to arrive in late February.

The U.S. is also deploying Patriot missiles and nuclear submarines to the Persian Gulf and F-16 fighter planes to the Incirlik base in neighboring Turkey.

With all the cross confimation you have to know that something is afoot.

With the American logistics on the move the opening shots could come at any time. As always the key to any war is logistics. It does no good to have forces if they are not sufficiently close to the scene of action.

Update: 23 Jan '07 0333z

A strong explosion jolted Mashhad.

...a strong explosion at the high-voltage sub-station of Mashhad rocked a large part of the city and frightened residents in this provincial capital.

Hmmm.

Israel urgently needed in NATO?

In an effort to establish more effective deterrence in the face of Iran's race to obtain nuclear weapons, government ministries are, for the first time, working on drafting a position paper that will include guidelines and a strategy for turning Israel into a full-fledged member of NATO, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

The paper is being drafted by an interministerial committee made up of representatives from the Defense Ministry and the Foreign Ministry and headed by the National Security Council. The committee plans to complete the paper by the end of February and present it to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for approval.

Meanwhile Monday, in an exclusive interview, former Spanish prime minister Jos Mar a Aznar told the Post that "Israel needs to join NATO as soon as possible."

According to Aznar, the Iranian threat serves as "an excellent occasion to enforce [Israeli] deterrence by making Israel a member of NATO."

The former Spanish leader and current president of the FAES Spanish think tank said that if Israel became a member of NATO, "the perception in Iran would change, knowing that it's not only Israel [they are dealing with], but all of NATO."

Aznar said that NATO needed to change its focus to counter the growing threat of global terrorism.

Interesting. Things are moving right along.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

A Party of Traitors

The Mary McCarthy story about a Democrat Mole in the CIA is breaking hard against the Democrats. There are ties in this to Joe Wilson. Communist fronts. The Tides Foundation. Teresa Kerry. John Kerry. Sandy Burglar. Zbigniew Brzezinski. General Wesley Clark USA (Ret.). General Anthony Zinni. Richard Clarke. Randal Beers. Valerie Plame/Wilson. Bill Goddfellow (Mary's Husband). Anthony Lake. Bill Clinton. Al Gore. George Tenet. Joseph Sestak. John Deutch. That just about blows their whole national security line up.

As a sting operation The Fake Prison/Torture Story will go down as probably the #1 intelligence sting of all time. Thanks to the help of Dana Priest it won a Pulitzer Prize. Whoever wrote the Euro prison/torture story for the stingers took it right out of the "Janet Cooke and Jimmy's World" playbook. That story could have been the template for this story. Lurid but plausable. The Captain has more about the sting. Really the sting as designed is right out of "Bodyguard of Lies". Tell a story close enough to the truth that plays to the opposition's prejudices. Give it multiple independent corroborating sources. Watch the foe take the bait.

A.J. Strata has more links. As does Tom Maguire.

I think the Democrat party has just hit an iceberg. I do not believe they can keep afloat from this one. I expect they will lose seats in the mid term elections. I rate the Dem chances in 2008 as less than 10% chance of getting the Presidency.

Let us harken back to WW2 when Thomas Dewey declined to use intel that would have harmed the war effort in his bid to unseat FDR. We have come a long way baby.

Technorati:

Mary McCarthy, CIA Leaks, Democrat Mole, Joe Wilson, Communist Front, Tides Foundation, Teresa Kerry, John Kerry, Sandy Burger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Wesley Clark, Anthony Zinni, Richard Clarke, Randal Beers, Valerie Plame, Valerie Wilson, Bill Goddfellow, Anthony Lake, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, George Tenet, Joseph Sestak, John Deutch, Dana Priest, Pulitzer Prize, Bodyguard of Lies