Is Egypt Double Crossing The Palestinians?

There is a new gang running Egypt and they have decided to open the Egypt/Gaza crossing to normal traffic.

Egypt will permanently open its Rafah border crossing with Gaza by the weekend.

The Egyptian border with Gaza will be opened daily beginning on May 28, the Egyptian state MENA news agency reported.

The decision is “part of Egyptian efforts to end divisions among Palestinians and to finalize their reconciliation.” Egypt brokered the recent reconciliation between the Fatah party, led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and the Islamist Hamas organization.

The opening takes the steam out of Israel’s land and sea blockade of Gaza, which began after Hamas took over power in Gaza in 2007. The Egyptian border closed at the same time.

It is not clear if only people, or also goods, will be allowed to cross the Rafah border. Israel limits the kind of goods that enter Gaza in order to prevent weapons-making material from falling into the hands of Hamas and other terrorist organizations.

Yes it is dangerous. But more for the Palestinians than the Israelis. First off the tunnel builders and the smugglers that use them will be out of business. That will cause hardship for some. But that is not the worst that could happen.

Let us suppose Hamas, which controls Gaza, arms to the teeth and then starts a war with the Israelis. What might the Israelis do in retaliation? The Gaza Strip is 3 1/2 to 7 1/2 miles wide and 25 miles long. The Israelis could start walking an artillery barrage from the north end of Gaza and working its way south. At 50 ft a minute they could cover a mile in about two hours. Which would give the residents barely enough time to evacuate. In a day they could clear about 1/2 the Strip. With the Egyptian border open the refugees from the barrage would have no trouble heading for Egypt. Three days of such a barrage would make Hamas and the citizens of Gaza Egypt's problem.

Would the Israelis do such a thing? Doubtful. But it is unwise to wage a war by calculating an enemy's intentions. It is wiser to calculate based on capabilities. Is Hamas wise? Surely you are joking.

Rockets

I haven't been following the news much lately. I've been more interested in working on The Bussard Fusion Reactor (BFR). So I missed the beginnings of happenings in Gaza. So for those of you as out of the loop as I am and for those interested in a recap and the latest news. Here goes.

Let us begin with how this latest dust up began. It seems Israel is tired of being rocketed by the Palestinians. Or more properly: former Egyptians living in Gaza. The Jewish Telegraph Agency reported on Friday, 29 Feb:

Rocket attacks enabled by Hamas have increased since Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza last month in a bid to stop the rocket attacks and have in recent days reached as far north as Ashkelon.

A college student in Sderot was killed on Wednesday and a home in Ashkelon was hit Thursday. On Friday, a rocket hit a Sderot home while a family was having lunch, slightly wounding a woman.

What was the response of the political echelon at the time?

Top Israeli lawmakers called for massive military action in the Gaza Strip.

Tzachi Hanegbi, the chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and a member of the ruling Kadima Party, told Israel Radio on Friday that Israel should reoccupy parts of Gaza and topple the Hamas government.

Matan Vilnai, the deputy defense minister called for a "catastrophic" response, and Gideon Saar, a member of the opposition Likud Party, also advocated a raid, according to reports in Ha'aretz.

Ehud Barak, the defense minister, has said such action is possible, but not in the immediate future.

I guess by immediate future he meant within the next five minutes.

So it started with rockets. Which actually have been a problem for Israel for years. This report from February of this year is emblematic.

Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday evening fired eight Qassam rockets at the southern town of Sderot, one of which directly struck a home in the city leaving six people lightly wounded.

According to the city's senior security officer, most of the rockets hit open fields around the city, but the barrage caused a power outage in one of the city's neighborhoods.

So what happened next?

The Jerusalem Post picks up the story.

As IDF troops entered the northern Gaza Strip on Saturday, two soldiers and more than 50 Palestinians were killed, at least half of them gunmen, on the deadliest day in the territory since Hamas seized power there last June.

Palestinian terrorists in Gaza fired over 50 rocket and mortar attacks on southern Israel, in defiance of the IDF assault.

Six Israelis were wounded, all but one of them lightly, in rocket fire that reached as far north as Ashkelon, 17 km. from Gaza.

Ashkelon used to be off limits or out of range (depending on your interpretation of events). Hamas promises even longer range rockets.

Hamas is improving its rocket technology, and will soon be able to hit "any target in Israel," Reuters quoted a senior member of the organization, Fathi Hamad, saying Friday at a rally in the Gaza Strip.
[Hamas Prime Minister Ismail...]

Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh speaks after prayers at a mosque in Gaza City, Friday.
Photo: AP

Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, who was recently reported to have "gone underground" out of fear he would be targeted for assassination by Israel, also spoke at the demonstration. Haniyeh addressed the possibility of a large-scale IDF incursion into Gaza.

That report was from 29 Feb. (Friday) So what was Hamas expecting?

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri also spoke about a possible IDF operation in the Gaza Strip, saying that Hamas was "in a war against the new Nazis."

Zuhri's comment came after Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilna'i said Friday that "as long as the rocket attacks escalated, the Palestinians are bringing upon themselves a bigger Shoah [Holocaust]."

Now here is where it all gets even more interesting. The US Navy was moving some ships into the area before the dust up began.

Feb 29, 2008 4:08 (Israel Time - ed.)
US sends 3 warships to Mediterranean as tensions mount
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

The US Navy is sending at least three ships, including at least one amphibious assault ship, to the eastern Mediterranean Sea in a show of strength during a period of tensions with Syria and political uncertainty in Lebanon.

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters Thursday the deployment should not be viewed as threatening or in response to events in any single country in the volatile region.

"This is an area that is important to us, the eastern Med," he said when asked about news reports of the ship movements. "It's a group of ships that will operate in the vicinity there for a while," adding that "it isn't meant to send any stronger signals than that. But it does signal that we're engaged, we're going to be in the vicinity, and that's a very, very important part of the world."

Another military officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because full details about the ship movements are not yet public, said a Navy guided missile destroyer, the USS Cole, was headed for patrol in the eastern Mediterranean, and the USS Nassau, the amphibious warship, would be joining it shortly.

Another military officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because full details about the ship movements are not yet public, said a Navy guided missile destroyer, the USS Cole, was headed for patrol in the eastern Mediterranean and that it is accompanied by two refueling ships. The Cole is equipped to engage in a variety of offensive actions, including anti-aircraft and land attack missions.

It is unusual to have logistic movements (two refueling ships) be revealed about a mission. It is also unusual to tie the movements of warships to the lower speed of the logistic vessels.

What it does mean for sure is that operations will be sustained.

What about reaction? The Hamas head guy in Damascus Khaled Mashaal has some really strange things to say.

Damascus - Khaled Mashaal, the Damascus-based leader of the Palestinian militant movement Hamas, accused Palestinian authority leader Mahmoud Abbas Saturday of causing the Israeli offensive into Gaza Strip by saying Hamas supported the al-Qaeda terrorist network.

'I accuse the leader of the Palestinian authority of providing an excuse for this Israeli Holocaust, whether he meant it or not,' Mashaal told reporters during a press conference in Syria.

He added: 'Is it logical that a Palestinian leader accuses his people in Gaza and accuses them of supporting the al-Qaeda? Isn't it a chance for the Zionists and Americans to launch the attack?'

So for him, it is not about rockets. He was double crossed by his own side. OK.

As if all this murder and mayhem wasn't bad enough there is some very, very, bad news.

Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian authority appear likely to be called off this week, after civilians were killed in heavy fighting in the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian officials say at least 50 people have been killed in Israeli attacks.

Fighting in Gaza continued into a second night, as Israeli air and ground troops attacked Islamic militants in the strip.

But Palestinian medics say half of those killed since the offensive began on Friday night have been civilians and that has led to international calls for restraint.

Mixing fighters with civilians used to be a war crime and the criminals were those doing the mixing. How times have changed.

How has the Arab world reacted to the rocket attacks?

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would be the first to admit he is powerless to halt the attacks on Israel from Gaza, and there's been minimal intervention from Egypt or any other Arab government to persuade Hamas to call off these attacks.

More analysis of Abab reaction from: Haaretz.

As the death toll in Israel Defense Forces raids against miltiants firing rockets from Gaza climbed to more than 60 on Saturday, Palestinian Information Minister Riad al-Malki responded by saying: "Hamas gave Israel an excuse to start a war in Gaza."

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also responded along these lines by saying that the "operation in Gaza is not just a reaction to the rocket barrage." Both comments can be interpreted as Palestinian backing of the Israel Defense Forces ground incursion in the Strip.

Moreover, the very mild Egyptian reaction and the conspicuous absence of a convicting Arab voice also indicate that the IDF raid is perceived by the Arab world to be first and foremost a war against Hamas, not the "real Holocaust" of the Palestinian people - as Khaled Meshal claimed on Saturday.

The fact that Al Jazeera devoted a whole episode of a popular debate show to the question "Why are the Palestinians keeping silent about the situation in Gaza?" also serves to prove this point.

If you want to keep up to date with Israeli commentary from sources I like may I suggest Israel Matzav and Israely Cool. The links go to some starter articles. So look around for the latest.

Instapundit also has more.

An interesting bit of news from Lebanon. It seems the Saudis expect the war to extend to there as well.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait on Saturday called on their citizens living in Lebanon to leave the country as soon as possible, a Lebanese television report said.

Future Television, privately owned by Saad Hariri who heads the majority anti-Syrian bloc in parliament, said Saudi Arabia had advised its nationals to leave Lebanon "as soon as possible."

There was no one available at the Saudi embassy to comment on the report.

A government source said that the Lebanese government was advised about the Saudi decision which called on their citizens to "leave Lebanon if they can and to be very careful in their movements inside the country."

Kuwaiti citizens living in Lebanon received urgent messages on their mobiles saying that "all Kuwaiti citizens are asked to evacuate
Lebanon as soon as possible."

What we are seeing may just be the opening moves of a wider war. Combine that with recent US Fleet movements noted above and things may get really serious in the next few days.

What Hizballah is probably waiting for is for Israel to be fully engaged in Gaza before opening the Lebanese front.

Gaza - The Situation Is Improving

Yes the situation in Gaza is improving. For the Israelis.

A consensus seems to have formed in Israel that the disengagement from Gaza was a deadly mistake - that it caused a steep escalation of the Kassams falling on Sderot and, most recently, allowed Hamas to take over the Strip. In all, according to the new Israeli wisdom, the removal of Israeli settlers and soldiers from the Gaza 21 months ago has badly weakened Israel's security.

This consensus, for the most part, is a crock.

It turns out that the rocket attacks are at about the same level now as they were before withdrawal.

However, there are changes. Dramatic changes.

There are no more rockets hitting Sderot now than there were in the "good old days." However, the number of Israelis killed by Gaza Palestinians has changed dramatically since disengagement - for the better. Since the last IDF soldier left the Strip until now, eight Israelis have been killed by Palestinians in Gaza - four civilians in Sderot, and four soldiers, according to the Foreign Ministry's Web site. Another soldier, Gilad Shalit, has been kidnapped.

By comparison, in the five years from the start of the second intifada until disengagement, 148 Israelis were killed by Gaza Palestinians - 91 soldiers and 57 civilians. In addition, 11 foreign civilians were killed by Gazans in that time.

So in terms of bloodshed, there's nothing to discuss - Gaza was many, many times more deadly for Israelis before the disengagement than it's been since.

On top of that, as we all know, the situation is worse for the Palestinians.

Fearing the situation in the Gaza Strip will deteriorate even further, Israel permitted hundreds of foreigners and diplomats in Gaza to enter Israel, providing them buses at the Erez crossing in northern Gaza. Meanwhile at the instructions of Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the IDF facilitated the entry of Magen David Adom ambulances into the crossing to evacuate the wounded Palestinians to hospitals in Israel. According to reports four Palestinians were evacuated, two who were wounded in Monday night's shooting initiated by Hamas, and others who suffer from chronical illnesses.

Palestinian Authority negotiater Saeb Erekat said Israel had agreed to evacuate 55 seriously ill Palestinians from Gaza to hospitals in Israel,...

How much you want to bet that the sickness rate skyrockets in Gaza?

In any case order is being restored, for the time being.

Militiamen barred people from carrying weapons in public, a group calling itself "Volunteers for God" frantically directed traffic at jammed intersections and gunmen demanded storeowners freeze prices despite a food shortage.

But the new stability did not dispel deep fears among some Gazans that Hamas militants will retaliate against their vanquished enemies in the more secular Fatah movement and impose their severe interpretation of Muslim law, further isolating this poor coastal territory of 1.4 million Palestinians.

"We are leaving a bad situation -- but one we knew -- and entering an unknown situation, and that makes people nervous. What's coming?" said Abu Walid, a 19-year-old shopkeeper in Gaza City.

I'm going to help you out Abu Walid and make a bold prediction. Nothing Good.

And what do you know a Palestinian agrees with me:

A Fatah fighter in southern Gaza, who would only give his name as Yasir, said he was keeping close to home and predicted the current stability will be short-lived.

"Hamas rules now, but watch what happens in the future," he said.

"Everybody with a dead brother is waiting to get their revenge. They will wait years. Everybody knows each other, everybody knows who killed their brother. As soon as Hamas weakens, the guns everybody is hiding will come out."

Stocking Up

Confidence in the latest cease fire in Gaza is in short supply. So naturally people are stocking up on food.

(IsraelNN.com) Gaza regional Arabs are stockpiling food and basic goods in anticipation of another outbreak of violence following talks in Mecca between Fatah and Hamas leaders on establishing a unity government. Street vendor Mazen Kheil said he has been selling a large amount of dried goods.

The death toll in the intra-Arab violence rose again Wednesday when a six-year-old boy died of his wounds while gunmen continued to reinforce rooftop and street positions. Fatah militia men fortified the compound of Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas with cement blocks.

They should be using sand bags. Cement spalls and creates shrapnel.

So far the only thing they are united on is fighting each other.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Redrawing the Map

War is a series of adaptations. Our military will not tell you about the changes they have made. Why give the enemy hints? OTOH you can start looking for the dogs that are not barking, and listen to the dogs that are barking, then make reasonable guesses.

The siege of Iran and Hamas are not in doubt. Hamas even calls it a siege. So we know that is on. We also know that despite the capability of destroying Iranian military forces, we do not wish to do so in a way that forces us to occupy the country.

Israel's forray into Lebonon is the prototype. Bloody nose the bastards and go home. Rinse repeat. Strengthen the weak side, weaken the strong side.

I think the new rule is: better to face warlords than warring nations. So the strategy is to create internal dissention (armed if possible) for our enemies.

Fatath/Hamas again is the prototype. A particularly good example of that is a Hamas operative grenading a demonstration in Gaza.

In effect we are redrawing the map the British made. They turned tribes into nations. We are turning nations into tribes.

Update: 02 Oct. '06 1958z

Eteraz has a more detailed look at the question and a map.

Winds of Change is discussing the map and what happened to liberals.