Saudis Green Light Israel

According to The Daily Express UK Saudi Arabia has green lighted an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

INTELLIGENCE chief Sir John Scarlett has been told that Saudi Arabia is ready to allow Israel to bomb Iran’s new nuclear site.

The head of MI6 discussed the issue in London with Mossad chief Meir Dagan and Saudi officials after British intelligence officers helped to uncover the plant, in the side of a mountain near the ancient city of Qom.

The site is seen as a major threat by Tel Aviv and Riyadh. Details of the talks emerged after John Bolton, America’s former UN ambassador, told a meeting of intelligence analysts that “Riyadh certainly approves” of Israel’s use of Saudi airspace.

It looks like Zbigniew Brzezinski's suggestion that the US shoot down any Israeli jets attacking Iran when they are over Iraq has become a moot point.

The national security adviser for former President Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, gave an interview to The Daily Beast in which he suggested President Obama should make it clear to Israel that if they attempt to attack Iran's nuclear weapons sites the U.S. Air Force will stop them.

"We are not exactly impotent little babies," Brzezinski said. "They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch? ... We have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren’t just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not.

And Dearest Zbig, what if they avoid Iraqi airspace by overflying Saudi Arabia? And heaven forfend what if the American military fails to follow orders? Or just suddenly becomes inept? What then Zbig?

One need only look at the Saudi reaction to the 2006 war against Hizballah (an Iranian proxy) in Lebanon. Their first reaction was "we have no dog in this fight". Followed by "evil Israelis." However, they sat on their hands the whole time.

The world is routing around damage. And the damage? Obama and his crew of Marxists psychophants. Thank the Maker there are still some adults in the world.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Primarily A Source Of Cash

Hizballah has set up shop in Mexico and a few points south. It seems they are interested in taking advantage of a business opportunity.

Hezbollah is using the same southern narcotics routes that Mexican drug kingpins do to smuggle drugs and people into the United States, reaping money to finance its operations and threatening U.S. national security, current and former U.S. law enforcement, defense and counterterrorism officials say.

The Iran-backed Lebanese group has long been involved in narcotics and human trafficking in South America's tri-border region of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil. Increasingly, however, it is relying on Mexican narcotics syndicates that control access to transit routes into the U.S.

Hezbollah relies on "the same criminal weapons smugglers, document traffickers and transportation experts as the drug cartels," said Michael Braun, who just retired as assistant administrator and chief of operations at the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

"They work together," said Mr. Braun. "They rely on the same shadow facilitators. One way or another, they are all connected.

"They'll leverage those relationships to their benefit, to smuggle contraband and humans into the U.S.; in fact, they already are [smuggling]."

His comments were confirmed by six U.S. officials, including law enforcement, defense and counterterrorism specialists. They spoke on the condition that they not be named because of the sensitivity of the topic.

So let me see if I get this. Through the magic of prohibition we are paying criminals and terrorists tens of billions of dollars every year to breach our borders. The brilliance of a policy like that can't be underestimated especially when sold as a protective measure. Protect from what? The free availability of illegal drugs. Which are in fact freely available. It is about as whack as believing socialism can work for large nations. Or believing in gun prohibition. A lot of my 2nd Amendment friends tell me that gun prohibition can never work. And they are right. Unfortunately a lot of them don't seem to be able to generalize.

Where were we? Oh yeah. Smugglers. And Hizballah.

While Hezbollah appears to view the U.S. primarily as a source of cash - and there have been no confirmed Hezbollah attacks within the U.S. - the group's growing ties with Mexican drug cartels are particularly worrisome at a time when a war against and among Mexican narco-traffickers has killed 7,000 people in the past year and is destabilizing Mexico along the U.S. border.

Primarily a source of cash. For now.

You have to hand it to a policy that finances our enemies in Afghanistan and Mexico and supports criminals in America. And especially that it is sold as a protection racket. "If you don't support drug prohibition your kids will have easy access to drugs and all become addicts." Except that currently pot is easier for kids to get than beer. Say didn't we have beer prohibition at one time? Yes we did. And wasn't one of the reasons we ended it was that kids were coming to school drunk? Yes it was. Have we learned anything from the alcohol prohibition experience? Look at the evidence.

H/T Drug Policy Forum of Texas

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Israel Has Clout At UN

Now there is a headline I bet you thought you would never see. And I bet you can't guess who is supporting them at the UN. It is not just the USA.

The United Nations Security Council met overnight Thursday on a resolution designed to bring a speedy halt to Israel's 13-day-old offensive against Hamas in Gaza. The vote over a resolution was apparently postponed due to Israeli pressure.

Key Arab nations and Western powers reached agreement on the main elements of a resolution, the head of the Arab League said.

The resolution was supported by the United States and Arab nations that have close ties to Hamas. But it will be up to Israel and Hamas to decide to stop their military activities.

"Peace will be made in the region, not in New York, but actions in New York can support the search for peace in the region," a senior British official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

That is diplo speak by the Ababs for "Thump Hamas as hard as you want. We don't mind. In fact we encourage it."

The "deal" starts out with the usual boilerplate.

The latest draft "stresses the urgency of and calls for an immediate, durable and fully respected cease-fire, leading to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza." It "condemns all violence and hostilities directed against civilians and all acts of terrorism."

And then it gets to the good stuff.

The draft also calls on UN member states "to intensify efforts to provide arrangements and guarantees in Gaza in order to sustain a durable cease-fire and calm, including to prevent illicit trafficking in arms and ammunition and to ensure the sustained re-opening" of border crossings.

It is well known that the border crossings will not be permanently re-opened until the Philistines stop their attacks through the crossings. Which means Gaza needs a new government because Hamas is committed irrevocably to the destruction of Israel.

This is a sea change in Middle East politics. One that actually happened in 2006. And why are the Arabs so inclined? Rather simple really. They fear Iran more than they fear Israel. This fact has been obvious since the Hizballah war of 2006 when Saudi Arabia came out at the beginning of the war supporting Israel at the expense of Hizballah/Iran. At least at first until hastily retracted in solidarity with their Philistine "brothers". That would be the brothers Saudi Arabia kicked out of its territory when they started getting all militant and such. Bunch of trouble makers those Philistines.

And what about the strategic defeat Israel suffered in 2006 against Hizballah? It looks like Hizballah is in no hurry to defeat Israel again.

"Lebanon denounces and condemns the firing of rockets and the retaliatory action and believes that such action is in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701," Siniora said in a statement, according to Lebanese press reports.

"We have asked the competent authorities in cooperation with the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to investigate," he said.

No group has claimed responsibility for the rocket firing, which lightly wounded two elderly residents of a retirement home in Nahariya.

Of course the government of Lebanon wants no part of a repeat of 2006. But what about the "real winners" Hizballah?

Lebanese Information Minister Tarek Mitri told AFP that Hizbullah had assured the cabinet that it "remains committed to stability and Resolution 1701," which brought an end to the Second Lebanon War.

Followed by the usual Hizballah chest thumping.

A Damascus-based leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, Ahmed Jibril, threatened Saturday to open up new military fronts against Israel if the conflict in Gaza were to escalate.

What exactly does if the conflict in Gaza were to escalate mean? I'd say it was already fairly well escalated.

I think it may fairly well be assumed that the players in the Middle East think that Hamas deserved a thumping. And that includes their main supporter Iran. Now why the sea change? The oil is running out. Not soon. Maybe not for fifty or a hundred years. But the end is in sight. And if not the actual supply of oil then the demand. The world has gotten serious about getting off the oil standard. How serious? So serious that even China is producing a plug in hybrid.

BYD Auto's plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, the F3DM, is now on sale in China, the company announced this week at a press conference in Shenzhen, China.

The F3DM, which will retail for 149,800 yuan ($21,200), can travel 100 km (63 miles) on its battery before needing to be recharged, according to BYD Auto.

The car can be plugged in to any average Chinese 220-volt wall outlet to be recharged.

While there are other plug-in electric hybrid cars available for sale, BYD Auto's F3DM is the first one in China to be mass-produced and, therefore, widely available to the general public, according to both BYD and The Wall Street Journal.

BYD Auto told reporters at the press conference that it expects to sell 350,000 F3DM cars in 2009. It also plans to launch an all-electric vehicle in 2009.

And who is behind BYD? Now there is an interesting story. but I will give you a hint. Who would guess that the center of the automotive world is no longer Detroit (well that is obvious) but in Omaha, Nebraska? Omaha, Nebraska? That is not so obvious.

In September, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet announced that MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, had bought $230 million worth of stock in BYD, giving it a 10 percent interest in the company.

Average Americans may also soon have a chance to buy a piece of BYD. The company also announced that it plans to begin exporting the F3DM to the U.S. in 2010.

Many automakers, including General Motors and Toyota, have been working on plug-in electric vehicles for mass production. All have said that the battery technology for this type of vehicle has been the most challenging aspect of the development process.

It should be no surprise then, that the Shenzhen, China-based company which is now a major player in the Chinese auto industry, started out in 1995 as a cell phone battery manufacturer.

The plans for an American roll out in 2010 have been delayed to at least 2011. In any case the hand writing is on the wall. The dominance of oil will come to an end. Not soon. But the end is in sight.

And how about those geniuses in Detroit? GM has put the Chevy Volt factory on hold.

General Motors is suspending work on the $370 million factory slated to build engines for the Chevrolet Volt, but says the plug-in hybrid will appear in showrooms by the end of 2010 as promised.

The decision comes as GM frantically slashes costs in a desperate bid to survive while the White House dithers on a bailout. GM and Chrysler have said they could be out of money by the end of the year, but Congress failed to approve $14 billion in short-term loans to the Big Three and the Bush administration appears to be in no hurry to act.

With cash dwindling fast, GM says it has no choice but to postpone work on the the factory in Flint, Michigan, where 300 people would build the 1.4-liter engines slated for the Volt hybrid and Chevrolet Cruze compact.

"It's temporarily on hold as we assess our cash situation," GM spokeswoman Sharon Basel told the Detroit Free Press. "I don't think it's any surprise that we're studying and reviewing everything, given the position we're in."

GM is doing everything short of searching for coins under the couch cushions in Rick Wagoner's office, but the Volt program has until now been sacrosanct. Rightfully so, because the range-extended electric car is the centerpiece of GM's campaign to recast itself as a company that builds fuel-efficient vehicles. It's the one thing GM can point to and say "See? We get it. We finally get it." But things have gotten so bad even the Volt is taking a hit.

Idiots.

In any case new car companies will step into the breech. And some old companies like Toyota are hustling their butts to get a plug in hybrid on the market. And if you can't wait there are plug in hybrid conversion kits.

Not content to be a potential supplier of lithium ion batteries for GM's plug-in hybrid programs, A123 Systems will start selling battery packs that conversion companies can use to transform current hybrid vehicles to plug-in capability. The company has already been working with Hymotion on plug-in kits and they have a contract to convert ten Prius for the California South Coast Air Quality Management District.

The kits will be completely integrated and designed to be installed in under two hours. The installed price of the 5kWh kit for a Prius is $10,000 and gives a range of 14 miles on battery. A123 CEO David Vieau testified at a recent US Senate hearing in support of tax breaks for customers buying plug-in conversions. Fleet testing of the systems is ongoing and sales are expected to start in 2008.

And if not 2008 then soon.

The lithium ion batteries are the stumbling block as evidenced by comments #30, #34, and others at the link. However, the problems will get solved. There is a lot of money at stake.

Well we are kind of far afield from the Gaza 2009 war. Which just goes to show you that everything in this world is interconnected. Some obscure guy in a lab is even now working on something that will change the world for the better in a big way. Hamas should have been paying attention. Fools. Peace in the Middle East through better battery technology.

So now you know why Israel has clout among the Arabs at the UN. Batteries.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Hamas Is Winning

The leaders of Hamas say they are winning the war in Gaza. They also say they hope to get a truce in 48 hours.

A senior Hamas source in Gaza says the group is optimistic about the prospect of securing a ceasefire with Israel in the near future.

"We can secure a truce within 48 hours," an aide to Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh told Ynet.

Ahmed Yusuf, Haniyeh's spokesman and political advisor, is a party to ongoing consultations in Gaza. Meanwhile, a delegation headed to Cairo to discuss the Egyptian-French ceasefire proposal. However, Israeli officials estimate that Hamas' political leadership in the Strip does not fully dictate the military moves on the ground.

Meanwhile the Israelis who Hamas says are losing the battle say they would prefer the fighting to go on a while longer as they have some objectives hey would still like to meet.

Senior Israel Defense Forces officers expressed doubt over whether military efforts alone could bring regime change in the Gaza Strip, and said the army is far from achieving optimal conditions in the Strip to implement an exit strategy.

IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi has instructed the army to prepare for action in Gaza since March 2007, shortly after he entered the post. That month, military programs were authorized that were eventually put into action as Operation Cast Lead.

The meetings dealt with the situation Israel seeks to see in the Strip after military operations are complete. An official present said the optimal situation would include several elements: steep reduction in rocket fire; neutralization of terror infrastructure; weakening of Hamas' position and organization, as well as its removal from power; creation of a "deterrent balance"; and reducing public support for the militant movement. In addition, Israel should not be viewed as being responsible for the Palestinian population, but the role should go to a central Palestinian establishment created in Gaza, led by moderate, pragmatic officials.

There is more news along those lines.

Israel has yet to exhaust all of its military options in the Gaza Strip and could step up its actions against Hamas if the government decides to press forward with Operation cast Lead, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Thursday during a tour of the South.

Olmert also said that he was deeply impressed by the IDF's performance and achievements to date.

"The bottom line is that the test requiring a decision by the political echelon is how to ensure that the reality the IDF is currently in the act of changing does not again control the South, and that quiet prevails," Olmert said.

"We have yet to arrive at this situation, and the army still hasn't been asked to carry out everything that is required to this end. So the decision still awaits us."

Translation: the Army still has some tricks up its sleeve and may need more time to accomplish its goals. It sure sounds to me like the Israelis are losing. They want the war to go on longer. And of course Hamas who is winning wants it to end ASAP. It sure sounds like Lebanon 2006 where the Arabs never lose and the Israelis never win. Another great victory for the mighty Palestinians.

Meanwhile, the bankrollers of Hamas and Hizballah Iran is pulling in its claws. They are advising their jihadists that suicide bombings and other militant activity against Israel is not the way to go.

Iran's top leader has banned hard-line Iranian volunteers from leaving the country to carry out suicide bombings against Israel.

Iran's state television on Thursday quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying that Iran can't allow volunteers to cross its border and take military action against Israel. But he said Iran won't spare any efforts to assist Hamas in other ways.

Maybe like getting them to surrender ASAP?

This is definitely a new direction for the Iranian regime. I wonder why they have had a change of heart. Did some one tell them that although they may not be interested in war that war is interested in them? Some one certainly whispered something in their ear. Perhaps low oil prices are keeping them on a short leash.

The correlation of forces does not appear to be to their advantage.

Did I mention oil prices? After a recent spike up to near $50 a bbl prices have fallen back to around $42 a bbl. Some analyst estimate that Iran needs prices near $90 a bbl. To keep its economy afloat. Obviously prices are around 1/2 that.

And Iran is having trouble buying diesel fuel.

Iran has reportedly bought three million barrels of gas oil from a Singapore trader to compensate for a loss of supplies from India.

Hin Leong already supplied Iran with one million barrels of gas oil (diesel) in December, with another cargo of the same size due to be sent later in January, the Reuters news agency quoted an unnamed trader as saying.

Industry sources had said this week that the deal was for January to March, Reuters reported.

Iran signed a deal with India's MPRL in May to export 240,000 tons of gas oil up to December. The volume of the deal was doubled in August. Iran lacks adequate refining capacity to meet domestic demand.

However, the two sides have failed to resolve a price dispute. MPRL has confirmed that it was not slated to ship any cargoes to Iran in January, which might have prompted Tehran to turn to the Singapore trader.

Ah yes. A price dispute. I think that means Iran is not paying its bills.

Another sign of Iran's money troubles is that it is proposing an to end gasoline subsidies.

Faced with falling oil prices and a weakening economy, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad presented a plan to Parliament on Tuesday that would scrap energy subsidies, a significant change in a major oil-producing country where gasoline is sold for 36 cents a gallon.

Economists warn that the move could spur inflation and raise unemployment. But Mr. Ahmadinejad urged Parliament to vote for the bill because of the need to curb costly energy consumption, which the subsidies have encouraged.

Gasoline prices on the world market are now running about $1.10 a gallon. That would mean a factor of three increase in price. And yes - until the economy adjusts that would represent a rather severe hit to the Iranian economy.

And it is not just gasoline.

Electricity is now sold at just 6 cents per 10 kilowatt-hours. The plan would abolish all government subsidies for things like heating gas, gasoline, electricity and water within the next three years and allow prices to reach international levels.

While the plan seems likely to be unpopular, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s critics say he is trying to offset its impact and appeal to voters ahead of the June 2009 presidential election by also promising to give much of the money that is now paid in subsidies directly to the poor in the form of a monthly allowance.

The amount he proposes for the allowance is not yet clear, but monthly assistance to the poor has steadily dropped to $20 per person every month from nearly $70.

I think what the economic geniuses of Iran are finally figuring out is that oil socialism is not a viable long term economic strategy. And of course all that impacts their ability to fight proxy wars. Even proxies want to get paid.

After the war in Lebanon in 2006, Iran opened its checkbook in an effort to mollify the Hizballh supporters who had taken a severe financial beating from the war. Israel did some serious urban renewal and the Iranians had to pay to keep their clients. Facing severe economic strains at home such a move, very unpopular in Iran in 2006, may be impossible for them in Gaza. Such difficulties may explain why Hizballah has refrained from joining in the current war in any more than a token way.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

A New Front In The Proxy War

Iranian proxy Hizballah is rocketing Israel from Lebanon.

At least two Katyusha rockets fired from south Lebanon exploded in northern Israel on Thursday morning, leaving two people lightly wounded and a number of others suffering from shock.

The rockets struck the Nahariya area at around 8 A.M. Israel Defense Forces troops immediately fired five artillery shells at Lebanon in response to the rockets, an Israeli security source said. A military spokesman said Israel aimed "a pinpoint response at the source of fire."

I had been wondering if Hizballah was going to open up the Northern Front. So far this looks like just a couple of shots in solidarity. However, if they are opening a new front their strategy is not bad. Wait until Israel is fully engaged in Gaza and then start up. However, the troops the Israelis have called up should be ready for action in a day or two so this action seems a little strange. Unless it is just a "don't forget we are here" kind of thing in order to draw off some of the troops that might otherwise be assigned to Gaza.

In any case it does point out the inability of the French troops under UN auspices to keep the peace.

A Lack Of Solidarity

The most amazing thing about the current war against Hamas is the silence of Hizballah. They aren't firing rockets this time. As they did in support of Gaza (or vice versa) in 2006.

Leading Lebanese political commentators believe Hezbollah will not open a military front with Israel on its shared border, even with a Gaza ground invasion. The commentators say that Hezbollah is not interested in a destructive round of violence months before the Lebanese elections.

Hezbollah expert Amal Saad-Ghorayeb told AFP over the weekend that she believes Hezbollah is trying not to upset the opposition in Lebanon. "On the domestic level, Hezbollah does not want to antagonize its domestic foes. They don't want to ruin the dialogue that allows them to keep the issue of their weapons indefinitely unsolved; it is a way of postponing the issue," she said.

"Hezbollah is not in a position that allows it to carry the burden of a second war," Paul Salem of the Carnegie Middle East Center told the agency.

They certainly have rockets and they would certainly be a help to their brothers in Hamas by dividing Israel's efforts. And most importantly they are both backed by Iran. What is different?

It is not just the political situation in Lebanon. While Israel has recovered from the 2006 war Hizballah has not. Which kind of gives you a very good indication of who won that war. A total defeat for Hizballah? Of course not. But enough of a defeat so that they have no interest in fighting.

So you have to ask - what is Iran's purpose in starting a proxy war with Israel now? My guess is that it is two fold. With oil prices in the tank it may be their last chance for a while and it may help prop up oil prices - for a while. The difficulty is that after shooting their wad they will not have the resources to rebuild Gaza. So in essence the current dust up is an admission of defeat by Iran.

The object of all warfare is to put your enemy in a position where there are no good choices. Israel seems to have done a good job in that respect. Perhaps the Arabs are starting to wise up. They could have a really good life if they worked with Israel instead of against it. Something that was well known among the Philistine leadership before the start of the Stupidfada in 2000/2001. So why did they choose war then? Political power pure and simple. War gives a government or a gang more political power than peace. However, you have to win the war to maintain that power. A draw or a loss will not maintain population cohesion or popular support.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Hunger Stalks Iran

Yesterday I did a piece on the decline of the fortunes of Iran and its best buddy Hizballah No Deal. Today I got some news that fleshes out the story.

Since the 2008-09 marketing year began on June 1, Iran has bought more than one million tons of hard red winter wheat directly from the U.S., which is "a very large amount," said Bill Nelson, analyst for Wachovia Securities. The purchases mean at least 3% to 4% of domestic wheat exports for the marketing year will go to a country the U.S. hasn't done business with for more than a generation. Government sanctions don't prohibit U.S. agricultural exporters from doing business with Iran.

This is the first time since '81 - '82 that Iran has bought wheat from America. At that time it was under a million tons. This year's purchase is expected to run 5 million tons. So what happens when you have to buy food from your enemy to keep going? Obviously bellicosity has to decline. And you pull in your cats paws like Hizballah. No point in upsetting the grain cart when there are no other sellers. Another humiliation for the poor dears. It just points further to the Iranian Government's mismanagement of the Iranian economy. My guess is that drought is an excuse not a reason.

Investing in missiles and atomic bombs does not feed the hungry. Water projects should be taking priority.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Perhaps They Miscalculated

There is an excellent discussion of the dust up in the Republic of Georgia going on at The Belmont Club. There is lots of news about an impending Naval Blockade of Iran.

Operation Brimstone ended only one week ago. This was the joint US/UK/French naval war games in the Atlantic Ocean preparing for a naval blockade of Iran and the likely resulting war in the Persian Gulf area. The massive war games included a US Navy supercarrier battle group, an US Navy expeditionary carrier battle group, a Royal Navy carrier battle group, a French nuclear hunter-killer submarine plus a large number of US Navy cruisers, destroyers and frigates playing the "enemy force".

The lead American ship in these war games, the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN71) and its Carrier Strike Group Two (CCSG-2) are now headed towards Iran along with the USS Ronald Reagon (CVN76) and its Carrier Strike Group Seven (CCSG-7) coming from Japan.

They are joining two existing USN battle groups in the Gulf area: the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN72) with its Carrier Strike Group Nine (CCSG-9); and the USS Peleliu (LHA-5) with its expeditionary strike group.

Likely also under way towards the Persian Gulf is the USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) and its expeditionary strike group, the UK Royal Navy HMS Ark Royal (R07) carrier battle group, assorted French naval assets including the nuclear hunter-killer submarine Amethyste and French Naval Rafale fighter jets on-board the USS Theodore Roosevelt. These ships took part in the just completed Operation Brimstone.

That is very interesting. Very interesting indeed. A joint American and European task force including France? What is the world coming to? No good for the Iranians to be sure.

So a commenter at the Belmont Club on the Georgia thread pops up and asks if the excitement in Georgia will have an effect on the coming Iran operation?

Will it frustrate planned action on Iran? Yes.

Well I'm not going to give a set up like that a pass (I blog after all). So here is my response:

No. Russia is now tied down. Their freedom to act has just been reduced. You know: hold ‘em by the nose and then kick them in the ass.

The Russians now have what? 30K - 40K troops tied down and their attention concentrated at the cost of 1,000 Americans in the field + a few hundred advisers. Plus there are Israeli advisers in Georgia as well.

Americans are taking no casualties and the Russians seem to be bloodied.

The time for a counter strike at Russia’s wind pipe (the Roki Tunnel) is when they have fully extended. To make such a strike before that reduces the effect. As a commenter at the Belmont Club link said they have learned nothing from 1908. Evidently we have.

We will see how stupid the Russians are in the next few days. If they keep advancing while taking losses - i.e. they are goaded into ill considered action - they become more vulnerable every day. If they retreat they lose face. The Georgians need to keep retreating while fighting delaying actions to maintain limited contact and then cut off the Russian wind pipe. In the immortal words of Groucho Marx - stucco.

It is reported that Putin’s face turned to ash at the Olympics. Perhaps things got out of hand before he was ready to act. We have disrupted Putin’s timing. i.e. a spoiling attack.

In re: American politics. This is not going to help Obama with the muddled middle. Americans turn to warriors in dangerous times, not community organizers.

So what have the Russians decided to do?

The President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev issued an order Tuesday for the termination of the military operation of the Russian Army in Georgia.

Medvedev announced his decision during a meeting with the Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov and the Head of the General Staff of the Army Nikolay Makarov, Interfax reported.

The operation for "coercing the Georgian side into making peace" was ended after a report of the Defense Ministry made it clear the goals of Russia's military operation was achieved.

If that report is true (and it is very likely true because it has come from a Russian news agency) the Russians know that they are in a very dangerous position militarily and may be beating feet to save their army.

However, they miscalculated by not announcing in advance “limited objectives”. Now it will look like they have been defeated by a fifth rate power with American friends. Bad for morale. Bad for their world image. Having Putin at the Olympics at the start when the generals would be in control with orders to do nothing except to respond to attacks was a master stroke not an error.

Proving once again that Bush plays the game better than any one else currently on the world stage.

Note: no reported American deaths so far. It looks like the Russians got their noses bloodied and America barely lifted a finger. My guess is that Russia was saving its move into Georgia for the start of the planned blockade of Iran. That is not going to work is it?

The initiative in world affairs has shifted.

What can we expect next once the blockade starts? Hizballah will probably attack Israel. However, this time it will come as no surprise to the Israels and my guess is that this time they will not only take out Hizballah but also Syria as well. The Stupistinians in Gaza will also likely get their just deserts. Provided they heed their paymasters in Iran.

It will be a whole new world come 20 Jan. 2009. A lot of unfinished business will have been finished. Self government is on the move. It will not be denied.

And American politics? That poor Obama doesn't stand a chance.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Riding The Tiger

Barry Rubin has an article out at Gloria Center about the destruction of Lebanon. In it he says:

The goal of Hizballah, and its Syrian and Iranian backers at present is not the full conquest of Lebanon--something beyond their means--but to control the government so it does nothing they dislike: no strong relations with the West, no ability to stop war against Israel, no disarming Hizballah's militias or countering that group's control over large parts of the country, and certainly no investigation of Syrian involvement in terrorism there.

Why, three years after Damascus ordered the murder of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri do investigators dawdle, having edited out the names of top Syrian officials they blamed for the killing in their initial report?

Israel bombed a nuclear reactor being built in Syria. Rice reportedly opposed the action. The world yawned.

Iran drives for nuclear weapons. There is some effort but too little, too slow. Whether or not the war in Iraq was a mistake, when terrorists murdered Iraqi civilians, much of the West blamed America; all too many Americans agreed.

He goes on:

These are the questions Obama isn't even pretending to try to answer: Are you willing to fight on this issue? To defy an "international community" that opposes action? To intimidate and defeat the radicals? Answer: No.

But here's the worst part that few in America but everyone in Lebanon will understand all too well:

"It's time to engage in diplomatic efforts to help build a new Lebanese consensus that focuses on electoral reform, an end to the current corrupt patronage system, and the development of the economy that provides for a fair distribution of services, opportunities and employment."

Here, make no mistake, Obama is endorsing the Hizballah program. It wants a new Lebanese consensus based on it having, along with its pro-Syrian allies, 51 percent of the power. What's needed is not consensus (the equivalent being getting Fatah and Hamas to bury their differences, or bringing in Iran and Syria to determine Iraq's future) but the willingness to fight a battle. In effect, Obama without realizing it, is arguing for a Syrian-, Iranian-, and Hizballah-dominated Lebanon. Such talk makes moderate Arabs despair.

I sent him an email in which I said:

Barry,

The "moderate" Arabs have helped convince the American left that the Palestinians have just grievances. All the rest follows from that. They are reaping what they have sown.

Most unfortunate.

His reply was quite instructive:

Yes, that is absolutely true and I have often used the example of "riding the tiger" and being unable to get off.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Policy Of Blockade

A. Jacksonian (A.J.) has an excellent post up tying Iran's natural gas problems with Turkmenistan with its oil problem and its internal economic woes. Let us start with this bit that A.J quotes from Reuters

Ebadollah Ghanbari, who heads the public relations unit of the national gas company, said Turkmenistan on Saturday slashed exports to Iran by half to 10 million cubic metres, before stopping deliveries completely a day later.

"In an official letter they said it was due to technical problems," he told state broadcaster IRIB. "Since yesterday evening Turkmenistan has completely cut its gas exports to Iran."

Despite its massive gas reserves, Iran has been a net importer of gas since 2002.

A.J. goes on to say:

Well, if you haven't read my previous stuff on Iran's Oil Problem and its Oil Outlook, now is the time to, because Iran just hit the wall.

Excellent advice since those articles provide excellent background.

Iran subsidizes natural gas so as to keep things running and folks happy. They don't use natural gas to rejuvenate their oil fields, which is one of the cheapest ways to do it. Instead, with non-market prices they get steep use and an increase in that use. If an energy source is cheaper than others, it gets over-utilized, just ask the folks in Iraq who don't pay monthly bills for electricity but get the 'all you can eat with a flat tax' deal from the Government. If there were meters, Iraq's power problem would diminish greatly, but that would also stall out the economic recovery so it will wait. Iran, however, is selling the natural gas at a rate cheaper than re-utilizing it for their oil fields. In theory they should have more than enough to export.

Which brings up the prime question: Why is Iran importing any natural gas?

And why is 5% of their natural gas supplies coming from imports via Turkmenistan?

This was supposed to be a money making export, as they had just finished a pipeline deal with India for natural gas. So *what* are they going to put in that pipeline? Right now the answer is NOTHING.

The folks in Turkmenistan suddenly had a great awakening: they were keeping the Iranian natural gas market afloat and NO ONE ELSE WOULD SELL TO THEM.

If you were in that position, what would *you* do?

Can you say: raise the prices?

A.J. then looks at what the Iranians can do in this situation with respect to natural gas prices.

Iran can't raise the price without causing a major recession or depression and starting to shut down some sectors of the economy. Plus, if they raise the prices for natural gas, they will be raising the cost of operating gas fired electrical facilities. A 'double-whammy' on the economy.

Iran might start 'rationing' it, but how they would do that is beyond me. Maybe start closing shut-off valves to certain neighborhoods for half-a-day at a time? That will start to cause some *serious* complaints, not just from college students or government employees, but from everyday folks.

Iran has only one solution that it tends to use for everything, and that is to shift terror operations. So Turkmenistan can expect to get its own little Hezbollah and meet-ups with the Qods forces. Which will be a blessing for Iraq and a 'holding pattern' in Lebanon. Unless, of course, Turkmenistan is *serious* in which case the next year in Iran is make or break.

And if Iran has to *pay up* a lot of terrorist cash will suddenly *dry up*.

Thank you to Turkmenistan!

I'd like to look a little further into the situation and see what the US has done to help put Iran in its current position.

A. J.,

You and I have been on the same page on this for quite some time.

I covered the Cash Flow Jihad aspect. You have been covering oil.

America is squeezing Iran by preventing them from earning income from other than oil and cutting off their cash flow from western banks. Iran's own bad policies (as you point out) are squeezing their oil income.

In other times this would be called the policy of blockade.

I posited that they had a window of opportunity for their jihad program. They lost the war in Lebanon (intended to weaken Israel - it did not). They needed an unstable Iraq (so they could take Iraqi oil fields once America left Iraq. This was an effort to stave off collapse by the usual methods. Theft.). That didn't work out either.

They are now between a rock and a very hard place. Afghanistan is their last hope. However, even if they win it they gain a liability, not an asset.

If they don't get nukes within a year (instability in Pakistan ring a bell?) they are fooked. They are screwed any way. A huge nuclear arsenal didn't save the USSR from economic collapse.

Let me add that the Iranian regime sells gasoline in Iran for under 50¢ a gallon. About 1/4 the world price.Iran raised gasoline prices by 25% last summer. It was around 34¢ a gallon previously.

In addition economic genius Ahmanutjob withdrew all the Iranian cash reserves from the world banking system to stave off disaster. It created an inflationary spike and produced nothing as the money was not invested but went to support jihad and stave off internal economic collapse.

Paying off the Shiites for the disaster in Lebanon must have cost a lot. However, without that payment Iran loses prestige and its proxy Hizbollah.

Historical precedent - Germany summer of 1918.

Another point. Perhaps the CIA leak - taking military pressure off Iran - was policy and not a rogue element in the US Government acting without authorization.

In fact it may have been in Iran's interest because by making a deal re: cutting the funding of the insurgency in Iraq in exchange for a reduction of American military pressure they reduce their cash flow strain.

My guess is that it will buy time for Iran, but not enough. So it was a good deal for us. If we reckoned that the slide had gone so far as to be irreversible.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Hinge

I was reading some back issues of Michael Totten's blog and came across a link to Conflict Blotter where I found this interesting bit of news about the activities of Hezballah in Lebanon.

It is clear there are chilling developments going on in southern Lebanon, especially north of the Litani that I will address in later blog posts.

Without reading any of the other posts I'm going to assume it has to do with the military hinge where the Litani heads west. From that position an army (presumably Israeli) could head either west following the river or north into the Bekaa Valley.

I discussed the issue of the Bekaa Valley in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy, where I outline what Israel should have done (how stupid of me to think that they had leadership smart enough to carry out the plan). I also discuss the strategic importance of the Litani hinge at:

The Bitter Taste of Victory
Assad: UN Stay Out of Bekaa
Syria Has a Problem

The hinge has strategic importance. My best guess - and for me it is rarely deja vu all over again - is that Hezballah is strengthening the hinge to make Israel commit sooner or to give it bases for flank attacks if the Israeli Army goes north. If the Israeli Army went west from there it would have the means to slow the advance.

Conflict Blotter gives his opinion along with some new information plus the most important part of any military planning or estimation exercise. Maps. He has a further follow up at A soldier’s analysis of Hezbollah’s war preps.

UN Wants To Fight Hizballah

I have just read the most amazing report. UNIFIL - the UN forces in Lebanon - want to go after Hizballah.

UNIFIL would like a more aggressive mandate for its forces to engage Hizbullah on their own, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

After last summer's war in Lebanon and the passing of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, UNIFIL was beefed up from 2,000 troops to more than 12,000 and received a mandate stipulating that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) be present during any incident involving Hizbullah in southern Lebanon.

According to the mandate's rules of engagement, UNIFIL soldiers are not allowed to engage Hizbullah guerrillas independently. They must first contact the LAF and wait for their arrival and decision whether they request UNIFIL assistance.

"There is a feeling of frustration within UNIFIL that under the current rules of engagement they are not free to do their job, which is to prevent Hizbullah rearmament in southern Lebanon," an Israeli defense official told the Post.

UNIFIL, commanded by Maj.-Gen. Claudio Graziano of Italy, cannot make changes to the rules of engagement on its own. The decision needs to be made by the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, in conjunction with countries that contribute forces to UNIFIL.

Nice of the General to make a stink. He is correct. However, his stated job and what the rules of engagement actually permit are two very different things. I'm sure this was no accident.

Why would the General be saying anything? By the time you get to be General politics is a very important part of the job. For him to speak out on this subject indicates he might have some backers in his corner who are not among the usual suspects.

Let us start with Prime Minister Fouad Seniora. Why would he be backing this if he already has the power to authorize UN action? One word. Hizballah. If he takes such overt action he will bring down the wrath of Hizballah on a somewhat shakey government.

Then there is Saudi Arabia. They have a lot of assets in Beirut. Just as Hizballah once had a lot of asset in Beirut. Which have lately gone into a disasterous decline in appraised value. The Saudis are aware that if the Israelis take a dislike to them it could hit them where it really hurts. In the pocket book.

Then there is the Sunni vs Shia thing. Plus a strong anti-Iranian sentiment over and above religious disputes.

The General's call for a change in the rules of engagement may have a chance. Depending on how much pressure the member states can bring on the Security Council.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

A Set Up?

I'm getting more suspicious of the defection of Iranian General Ali Reza Asghari with every new report.

The Jerusalem Post reports:

Former Iranian General and assistant defense minister Ali Rez Asghari left Iran using a new passport and pseudonym and managed to smuggle important intelligence documents, according to a report published Friday morning by London based newspaper Asharaq Alawsat.

According to the report, the missing Iranian general was carrying documents and maps of Iran's military and intelligence infrastructure as well as information regarding the relations between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hizbullah and the Islamic Jihad.

This is either one of the greatest intelligence coups of recent memory or the General is a false defector. I'm leaning to the false defector side of the equation.

Maps, documents, new passport? Normally people pulling off one of these deals try to leave without documents. They attract attention and create suspicion if found. Plus if it was an American or Israeli operation they would normally provide fresh identity documents. To avoid any compromised Iranian papers.

One must account for the fact that sometimes improbable things happen in the intel world. However, I'm sceptical.

Lets You And Him Fight

I was reading Michael Totten's blog and came across this interview of him by the Jerusalem Post. One part of the interview caught my eye. (Question by the Post in bold)

Are Syria and Iran still supplying Hizbullah? Have they recovered from the war last summer?

Absolutely. Hizbullah is as strong, or at least nearly as strong, as they were last July. Iran and Syria will continue supplying Hizbullah until they fear the consequences of continuing their support or until no one in Lebanon is willing to receive their support. Right now everyone who dies because of Syrian and Iranian support for Hizbullah is Lebanese or Israeli. They have no reason to stop until that equation is altered.

This fits in with some of my posts from last summer (July and August '06) where I said Israel must take on Syria if it was to accomplish its war aims.

Now it looks like, although Israel thinks a war with Syria is not likely this year, it is preparing for a war with Syria. Perhaps the Israelis are wizing up.

Cross Posted at Classical Values and at The Astute Bloggers

Iran Answers American Moves

In An Act Of War I discussed American moves on Iran. It looks like Iran is making a counter move in Lebanon.

BEIRUT, LEBANON - Lebanon's army imposed a curfew on the capital Thursday after hundreds of government supporters and foes wielded rocks, Molotov cocktails and sometimes guns in street battles that dragged past nightfall.

Four people were killed and 150 wounded, officials said, many of them soldiers who at times stood helplessly between the two sides.

The clashes, which began in a university cafeteria and spread to the surrounding neighborhood of Tariq Jedideh, offered a bitter contrast to the optimism of an international conference in Paris where more than $7.6 billion was pledged to help Lebanon's economy recover from last summer's war with Israel.

As the grants and loans were announced, bursts of gunfire echoed along the airport road and columns of black smoke rose from burning cars in some of the worst clashes since Lebanon's 15-year civil war ended in 1990.

America appeals for calm.

WASHINGTON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The United States appealed on Thursday for calm in Lebanon and reiterated concern that "irresponsible" forces were working to topple the government of embattled Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

In November, the White House warned that Syria and Iran, acting through the Hezbollah group of Shi'ite Muslim militants, might be on the verge of an attempted coup in Lebanon.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack condemned the latest violence in which at least four students were shot and killed in clashes between pro- and anti-government activists in the capital, Beirut.

"There are certain irresponsible parties in Lebanon who have been provoking an atmosphere of confrontation and antagonism within the political system," he told reporters.

"The links between those individuals and groups and outside entities are well known. And they have been engaged in a cynical manipulation of public perceptions in the political process."

Asked whether the United States still saw the activities of Syria, Iran and Hezbollah as a threat and whether it was nervous about the safety of Siniora himself, McCormack said nothing had changed since November.

You know that sounds like a "talk softly carry a big stick" threat to Iran. I wonder if theu are listening?

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Under The Shaddow

It appears that in the US determination to get a regime change in Iran the Gulf States are siding with America. Just as they sided (by acquiecense) with Israel's strike against Iran's cats paw Hizballah last summer.

Under-Secretary of State Nicholas Burns clearly knew his audience in Dubai and the reception he'd get if he'd talk tough against Iran. While Burns was busy today in Dubai warning Iran to back down, the think tank Mr. Burns was speaking to, the Gulf Research Center (described by the AP as "an influential think-tank"), had just put out a paper on Sunday, warning that "Tehran has to finally realize that if push comes to shove, if the choice is between an Iranian nuclear bomb and a US military strike, then the Arab Gulf states have no choice but to quietly support the US. Living under the shadow of Iranian nuclear bomb is unacceptable."

Funny thing is they never felt this way about Israel. Perhaps in this case intentions matter as much as capabilities.

H/T Little Green Footballs

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Nasserallah Goes After Easier Target

It appears that Lebanese Hizbaballah leader Hassan Nasserallah is tired of knocking heads with Israel and is going after an easier target. His own country Lebanon.

Thousands of Lebanese loyal to Hizbullah leader Nasrallah blocked main roads in Beirut and around the country at the start of what may be a putsch against the government. One man has been killed.

Hizbullah's masses blocked roads with rubble and burning tires, cutting the capital off from its airport and from the rest of the country. In addition, the government opposition, led by Hizbullah, announced a general strike. The riots began at 6 AM local time, and plumes of smoke formed a black cloud over the city soon after.

Nine people have been reported injured in shooting, including one dead.

Thousands of pro-Syrian, Hizbullah and other elements have staged Beirut street protests and sit-ins for nearly two months. Camped outside Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's office, they wish to topple his government, install a new unity administration and hold early elections. Hizbullah leader Nasrallah has been making fiery speeches, calling the current government of a part of the "Zionist-American conspiracy."

Most main roads inside Beirut were blocked Tuesday morning, as were the highways linking the capital to north and south Lebanon and to the Syrian capital Damascus.

There is a report from Reuters that the siege is being lifted.

BEIRUT, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Lebanon's opposition began removing roadblocks across the country on Tuesday night after suspending a general strike and halting protests aimed at toppling the government, a senior opposition source said.

"All roads in various areas, including that leading to the airport, will be reopened shortly," the source said. He had said that the move was agreed by various opposition forces, including Hezbollah, after a day of clashes killed three people and wounded 133.

Here is another view of the situation posted about 4 hours ago. It is about 2207 GMT as I post this. Lebanese Premier Fouad Saniora in urgent discussions with the opposition.

Posted: 23-01-2007 , 18:23 GMT

Lebanon's Premier Fouad Saniora called for an urgent parliamentary session to discuss the deteriorating security situation after riots between anti and pro-government followers claimed three lives and wounded scores of others on Tuesday. Saniora told a news conference "I demand an immediate extraordinary meeting by the parliament to settle issues within the constitutional institutions."

According to Saniora, the general strike called by the opposition has developed into "provocations that went beyond all limits." "Blocking roads…is an aggression on the people and their freedoms. It is an attack on social order and it involves risks that are hidden to nobody."

However, he stressed that "our hands remain stretched to facilitate dialogue and settle problems and renew confidence between the Lebanese." The premier said the March 14 parliamentary majority that supports his government "will not fail to listen to the opinions of others."

The risk that is not hidden is a return to civil war in Lebanon. A wound that is still raw.

More on the end of the strike.

Lebanon's pro-Syrian opposition has suspended a general strike and halted protests aimed at toppling the Government.

Clashes between anti and pro-government supporters left three people dead and about 130 wounded.

Lebanese security forces say protests erupted into violence as pro-government supporters fought street battles with followers of the opposition, led by Hezbollah.

The reports are fragmentary so far and give no hint of why the siege was called off.

Here is a report from a day ago using the big lie technique. Nasserallah was trying to prevent a civil war. So he says.

BEIRUT, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah called on Lebanese to take part in an anti-government strike on Tuesday to topple leaders who he said wanted to take the country to civil war.

Nasrallah said his Shi'ite Muslim group, part of the opposition which is locked in a power struggle with the government, would not be dragged to violence in a country still rebuilding from its 1975-1990 civil war.

"Some of the governing team strive day and night to push matters towards a civil war in Lebanon. Some of them work and dream ... that there will be a Sunni-Shi'ite war in Lebanon," he said, adding that they sought to partition the country. "We will not go to a civil war," Nasrallah told followers gathered to mark Ashura, when Shi'ites commemorate the death of the Prophet Mohammed's grandson, the Imam Hussein.

The opposition has called a general strike for Tuesday, stepping up its campaign to oust the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who has in turn defied its demands for veto power in cabinet and early parliamentary polls.

A bit of speculation here, but I wonder if Iran isn't doing this as a warning to the US about what an attack on it could mean. Thing is, if you kill the queen bee, hive activity goes on for a while and then ceases.

Gateway Pundit has a round up of earlier events and photos.

Update: 23 Jan '07 2324z

Michael Totten has photos and commentary.

Just a side note here...Up until today Hezbollah has modeled its "resistance" to the elected government after the March 14 demonstations to oust the occupying Syrian army. The March 14 movement, though, never did anything remotely like this. That's because they are, for the most part, liberal and democratic while Hezbollah is a Syrian-Iranian terrorist army. Today should be a moment of clarity for the willfully obtuse.

Notice, also, that the violent clashes in the streets are mostly between Sunnis and Shia, not between Christians and Shia. This is, and was, entirely predictable. Those who think Hezbollah is a popular movement with the support of Lebanon's Muslims as a whole should think again.

Michael thinks it was called off because Hizballah was losing popular support due to the violence.

Hezbollah called off the so-called "strike." Nasrallah seems to be aware that his latest stunt was seen by Lebanese an act of war in direct violation of Lebanon's power-sharing arrangment.

Members of Parliament today described Hezbollah as "terrorists" and Beirut as "occupied." Nasrallah is learning the limits of what he can do. He can squat downtown, but he can't seize it or burn it without starting a war.

Michael Totten in the comments:

What you see in Lebanon right now is a proxy war between the Syrian-Iranian axis on one side, and the US, France, and Saudi Arabia on the other.

Saudi Arabia is on our side in this one. Lebanon may be the only country in the world where Saudi foreign policy matches mine.

The reason the Saudis are on the March 14 side is two-fold. One: The Sunnis are with March 14 and the Shia Iranians are with March 8. Two: The Saudis want one freewheeling Arab country they can visit on vacation. Seriously. The Saudis love Lebanon just the way it is. Huge numbers of them go there during the summer for drinking, gambling, and sex.

Ah the draw of Democracy, whiskey, sexy. And hashish. Blond Lebanese.


H/T reader linearthinker.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

One Down Two To Go

Israel Matzav is doing some great anaysis of today's goings on in Lebanon. As background, let me say that the head of Hizballah, Hassan Nasserallah on Sunday promised to bring down the government of Lebanon. To do that he has to replace or eliminate three misisters.

Update: Reports are coming out that another March 14 minister came under attack, but was unharmed. This supports the theory that the target is indeed to eliminate enough ministers to topple the government.

Furthermore, given that the targeted ministers are Christians, it would be consistent with the same tactic the Syrians adopted after they killed Hariri when they targeted exclusively Christian figures and Christian areas. The hope is to spark sectarian clashes that would send the country into a vacuum, which is why Amin Gemayel and Walid Jumblat have urged restraint. An additional benefit for the Syrians and Iranians and Hezbollah would be the killing of UNR 1701 and the UNIFIL deployment in southern Lebanon.

Update 2: Iraq the Model puts its finger on an essential truth: "Syria thinks that just because they made a "friendly" gesture towards Iraq yesterday they would have the right to unleash their dogs in Lebanon today. That's their definition for dialogue."

This is certainly part of it. All this useless noise about "engaging" Syria has led to this. It has been interpreted by Syria as a license to kill, to make its move in Lebanon. And this is the result of the mere chatter about "engagement," that has no real policy substance! This is Syria for you. And people still act surprised, and luminaries still call for "talking" to Syria, and want to tell it what its "real interest" is, and convince themselves that Syria really is not interested in chaos. Destabilization is inherent to the Syrian regime's nature. It is their interest.

Which is exacty the point I made in The Realists are Now in Charge.

If we don't stop these "realist" fools they are going to get us all killed.

Hizballah In Distress

Lebanon is not what it used to be.

Although Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah continues to boast about a "divine victory," significant signs point to the fact that the situation in Lebanon is not as of yore.

One of the signs can be seen in the fact that Hizbullah decided to cancel the central rally for Jerusalem Day – the last Friday of the month of Ramadan, in which supporters of the Shiite militia commemorate Jerusalem every year through military demonstrations and belligerent statements.

This year Hizbullah officials announced that the central event has been cancelled and that local rallies will be held in the different regions. The organization's statement said that this is a historical year, in which the "robber of Jerusalem" (i.e. Israel ) suffered a crushing and historical defeat by the group's fighters, and that the organization has decided to settle for the mass victory rally held on September 22.

"In order to ease on our honorable public, we decided to replace the central event with local activities," the statement said.

It appears that Hizbullah is trying hard to find ways to "ease on the public" as time passes since the war. The school year has just begun, and in Beirut's Dahiya neighborhood students arrived at the ruins which were once their schools.

In the Bekaa Valley, a large number of students flocked to the classrooms which have already began operating, and fears rise over the winter which is on its way, especially among those who have been left homeless.

Therefore, it is not surprising that in Hizbullah's stronghold of Baalbek, demonstrators have already taken to the streets, claiming that they are on the verge of hunger.

"The failure to deliver governmental compensation for the demolished houses is pushing us to a state of hunger," owners of the ruined houses chanted during a demonstration Friday. Although the protest was directed at Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, it appears that if the situation is not improved, Hizbullah will also hear about it.

So the big money dispenser from Iran/Hizballah that was supposed to provide hundreds of millions of dollars to rebuild destroyed housing in Lebanon was a propaganda sham.

Well propaganda does not put food on the table (except for the propagandists).

Siege warfare is slow. Its bite is inexorable. Hizballah is going to have a lot fewer supporters in May than it has even now.

Perhaps Hizballah/Iran could take lessons from Clinton. It's the economy, stupids.

No Excuses for Terror

Commenter Paul pointed me to this video at Harry's Place. I haven't checked it all out but the start is very good.

It is a look at the leftist support for Middle Eastern Tribalism. Or as the guy in the video put it: "We are all Hizballah now". i.e. a repudiation of all the left stands for (except for the overthrow of the established order). The Soviet Union is gone and the left needs a new champion.

Harry's Place belongs to the Euston Manifesto left.

Even if you don't have broadband the comments are interesting. The commenters include a number of Trots and a sprinkling of Stalinists. A viewpoint rarely represented in America. We usually get leftists totaly ignorant of bygone leftist theology.


Update: 28 Sept '06 1936z

I have just finished watching the whole set of four. Powerful stuff. If you have a slow connection just watch Part IV.

Update: 03 Oct. '06 0000z

It appears the direct link to Harry's Place is not working. Try this link to the archives and scroll down to 27 Sept.