Misoverestimated

Michael Totten is discussing the errors Israel made in The Summer War 2006. One of the mistakes discussed was not taking on Syria as one commenter notes and Michael agrees.

DaMav: suppose instead of targetting Lebanon, Israel had bombed Syria until they pulled Hezbollah forces out or defanged them?

Michael Totten:That’s what I said they should do right from the beginning. No one wanted to hear it, especially not Israelis. That kind of military action isn’t effective against guerillas and terrorists, but it is very effective against states.

I always thought a strike against the Bekaa Valley would have drawn the Syrians out of their bunkers and into the war. No need to go after Syria directly (at first) to draw them in.

A lot of folks didn’t like what I said. However, I believed Olmert would do it because it was so obviously the right policy. I misoverestimated him.

H/T Instapundit

The Hinge

I was reading some back issues of Michael Totten's blog and came across a link to Conflict Blotter where I found this interesting bit of news about the activities of Hezballah in Lebanon.

It is clear there are chilling developments going on in southern Lebanon, especially north of the Litani that I will address in later blog posts.

Without reading any of the other posts I'm going to assume it has to do with the military hinge where the Litani heads west. From that position an army (presumably Israeli) could head either west following the river or north into the Bekaa Valley.

I discussed the issue of the Bekaa Valley in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy, where I outline what Israel should have done (how stupid of me to think that they had leadership smart enough to carry out the plan). I also discuss the strategic importance of the Litani hinge at:

The Bitter Taste of Victory
Assad: UN Stay Out of Bekaa
Syria Has a Problem

The hinge has strategic importance. My best guess - and for me it is rarely deja vu all over again - is that Hezballah is strengthening the hinge to make Israel commit sooner or to give it bases for flank attacks if the Israeli Army goes north. If the Israeli Army went west from there it would have the means to slow the advance.

Conflict Blotter gives his opinion along with some new information plus the most important part of any military planning or estimation exercise. Maps. He has a further follow up at A soldier’s analysis of Hezbollah’s war preps.

Lebanon On The Brink

Syria looks to be creating new troubles for Lebanon.

Syria has called on its citizens to leave Lebanon ahead of an expected "eruption" in that country, Arab and Iranian press reports have said.

The media reports were translated and made available by MEMRI in a special dispatch on Sunday.

"In the past few days, Arab and Iranian media reports have pointed to the possibility that Lebanon's current political crisis may become a violent conflict after July 15, 2007," the MEMRI dispatch said.

July 15 comes one day before a special UN Security Council meeting which is expected to discuss the possibility of stationing international experts on the Syria-Lebanon border, in order monitor the ongoing illegal cross border arms traffic to Hizbullah, thought to be originating from Iran and Syria.

The UN Security Council is also expected to meet next week to discuss a key report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a development which may bode badly for Syria.

It is well known (though not definitely proved) that Syria was behind the Hariri murder. I don't understand why a UN Security Council investigation scares Baby Assad so much. I wonder what other skeletons are hidden in the Syrian closet?

H/T Michael Totten who also mentions this report from Al Mustaqbal

Syrian troops on Thursday reportedly have penetrated three kilometers into Lebanese territories, taking up positions in the mountains near Yanta in east Lebanon's Bekaa Valley.

The daily Al Mustaqbal, citing sources who confirmed the cross-border penetration, did not say when the procedure in the Fahs Hill overlooking Deir al-Ashaer in the Rashaya province took place.

The sources said Syrian troops, backed by bulldozers, were fortifying positions "in more than one area" along the Lebanese border, erecting earth mounds and digging "hundreds" of trenches and individual bunkers.

No mention of this in your regular newspaper? Now what if Israel had done the same thing?

The Bekaa is a strategic location for Syria. They make a lot of money by protecting the drug trade. You can learn more about it by listening to this Youtube bit.

Update: 09 July 007 1925z

Syria is removing checkpoints from the Golan.

The London based Al-Hayat reported Saturday that Israel was "concerned" that Syria's decision to remove military checkpoints on the road to Kuneitra on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights could be a preparation for war.

According to the report, the checkpoints in question had been in place for 40 years, ever since the Six Day War.

Al-Hayat also claimed that foreign journalists were being barred from covering IDF maneuvers conducted on the Golan Heights.

Cross Posted at Classical Values and at The Astute Bloggers

Hizballah In Distress

Lebanon is not what it used to be.

Although Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah continues to boast about a "divine victory," significant signs point to the fact that the situation in Lebanon is not as of yore.

One of the signs can be seen in the fact that Hizbullah decided to cancel the central rally for Jerusalem Day – the last Friday of the month of Ramadan, in which supporters of the Shiite militia commemorate Jerusalem every year through military demonstrations and belligerent statements.

This year Hizbullah officials announced that the central event has been cancelled and that local rallies will be held in the different regions. The organization's statement said that this is a historical year, in which the "robber of Jerusalem" (i.e. Israel ) suffered a crushing and historical defeat by the group's fighters, and that the organization has decided to settle for the mass victory rally held on September 22.

"In order to ease on our honorable public, we decided to replace the central event with local activities," the statement said.

It appears that Hizbullah is trying hard to find ways to "ease on the public" as time passes since the war. The school year has just begun, and in Beirut's Dahiya neighborhood students arrived at the ruins which were once their schools.

In the Bekaa Valley, a large number of students flocked to the classrooms which have already began operating, and fears rise over the winter which is on its way, especially among those who have been left homeless.

Therefore, it is not surprising that in Hizbullah's stronghold of Baalbek, demonstrators have already taken to the streets, claiming that they are on the verge of hunger.

"The failure to deliver governmental compensation for the demolished houses is pushing us to a state of hunger," owners of the ruined houses chanted during a demonstration Friday. Although the protest was directed at Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, it appears that if the situation is not improved, Hizbullah will also hear about it.

So the big money dispenser from Iran/Hizballah that was supposed to provide hundreds of millions of dollars to rebuild destroyed housing in Lebanon was a propaganda sham.

Well propaganda does not put food on the table (except for the propagandists).

Siege warfare is slow. Its bite is inexorable. Hizballah is going to have a lot fewer supporters in May than it has even now.

Perhaps Hizballah/Iran could take lessons from Clinton. It's the economy, stupids.

Bekaa Again

The Jerusalem Post and Y-Net News are reporting Israeli jets and drones over the Bekaa near Baalbeck. Lots of shooting from the ground. Israel reports no planes or targets on the ground hit. From the Jerusalem Post report:

IAF drones and warplanes were crisscrossing the skies above Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley on Friday night, near the Hizbullah stronghold of Baalbek, security officials said.

The IDF confirmed the flights but stressed that the planes did not open fire and in turn had not violated the cease-fire put into action on Monday.

The French news agency reported that IAF planes attacked an uninhabited area next to the city of Baalbek. According to their report, low-flying IAF helicopters shot four missiles in the area.

Police in Lebanon claimed that anti-aircraft fire chased away the IAF aircraft, but that to their knowledge there had been no IAF missile attack.

What that probably means is that anti-aircraft rounds returned to earth and in effect did an own side goal. Always a danger with anti-air weapons that don't hit their target.

From the Y-Net report:

After the ceasefire came into effect, senior officers said that the air force will continue to carry out sorties in order to ensure the safety of the forces on the ground, but that no strikes will be launched.

The army also stated that IAF warplanes did not sustain any hits in the course of these sorties.

However, no comments were made on Friday's report.

Israeli war planes frequently fly over Lebanese airspace and during the 34-day war with Hizbullah gunmen attacked targets across the country. The Bekaa Valley was heavily hit during the war, which ended with a UN sponsored truce on Monday, although there have been isolated incidents of violence since then.

Why would Israel be doing this? One possibility is to warn off Syria from re-arming Hizbollah. Or they could be protecting troops still in the Bekaa valley. Another is to show the Hizbollah and the Syrians how impotent they are, you know, "alright suckers come and get me if you can and you dare". Another would be to encourage Hizbollah to do something stupid. Like start the war again.

Kind of like winners spiking the ball.

I really think Hizbollah has said "no mas".

Bekaa Valley Power Station Hit

Arutz Shiva is reporting that a power station in the Southern Bekaa was hit today.

The IAF also attacked a power station in the southern Bekaa Valley, causing a blackout in the area of Kiraoun.

This is a target I would expect if Israel had intentions of taking the Bekaa. The Israeli public knows the Bekaa is the key to Hizbollah resupply and reserves, so they are definitely in favor of such a move. The people of Israel are united in a way that hasn't been seen for a few decades.

You might want to go here to get some maps. Winds of Change also has a nice topo/road map of Northern Israel/Southern Lebanon as part of this piece.

Update: 05 Aug '06 2053z

Bliss Street Journal discusses the meaning of the attack. Scroll down.

Technorati:
Israel, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrallah

Lebanon: Bekaa, Attacks, Maps

Here is a bit on recent air attacks by Israel from the Jerusalem Post.Originally quoted here

Israeli jet fighters struck deep inside Lebanese territory, hitting Hermel, some 120 kilometers north of the Israeli border in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon. Warplanes fired at least five air-to-surface missiles on the edge of the town, targeting a road linking eastern Lebanon to western regions and the coastline.

About six hours later, warplanes returned to attack Hermel again, hitting a pickup truck loaded with cooking gas tanks, security officials said. The canisters exploded, sending flames shooting up from the vehicle for nearly an hour. The driver had pulled over and exited the vehicle before the attack, and was not hurt, they said. [Somehow, I doubt those tanks had cooking gas in them. CiJ]

========

Get out your maps, overlays, and pins:

Nice simple topo map of Lebanon with major cities. Ballbeck is shown.

Bekaa Road net

Political map of Lebanon

Air strikes in Lebanon [pdf]

Air strikes in Lebanon [jpg]

A good resource from the Lebanese side of Israeli operations in Lebanon.

This may be indicative of a move towards the Bekaa Valley. Or as so many have pointed out, it may just be my fevered imagination.

If you haven't read my previous piece on the strategy of the war please do so. It will make this more intelligible.

Update: 02 Aug '06 0422z

It looks like my imagination is not so fevered after all.

Lebanese army and security officials said a major Israel Defense Forces operation was underway against suspected Hezbollah positions near Baalbek in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley late Tuesday. IDF troops thrust deep into the area, landing troops by helicopter in the Hezbollah heartland.

Lebanese security sources said IDF soldiers had landed by helicopter near Baalbek as aircraft launched several strikes in the region.

One Lebanese officer saying the Israel Air Force presence in the air above the ancient city was "unprecedented." ... "The extreme, unprecedented number of aircraft indicates the possibility that the Israelis are planning to land troops, but we cannot yet confirm that," said one security official on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

Quoted at Captains's Quarters

From Haaretz

Update: 02 Aug '06 0539z

Israel has landed troops 10km north of Baalbek says CNN. From Varifrank who has other interesting things to say.

The Jerusalem Post has a report on the raid and pictures of commandos with machine guns.

Haaretz reports on the raid in detail.

Well, well, well, one of Iran's top guys, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised that Iran would stand with Lebanon in the fight against Israel. I hope so.

Technorati:
Israel, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrallah

Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy

Lets look at Israel's strategy and grand strategy in the current war and see how it affects what happens next. First however I'd like people to look at the morale factor in Israel. Later we will look at the morale factors in the Arab and Persian world. The will of the people and their expectations play a crucial role in the outcome of any war. Especially this one. So first off:

Be strong and of a good courage, fear not, nor be afraid of them: for the LORD thy God, he [it is] that doth go with thee; he will not fail thee, nor forsake thee. Deu 31:6

We will get back to this later. First thing I'm going to look at is the foundations of war fighting.

The foundation of the art of war is fear and deception. Sun Tzu is always good for a quote:

Warfare is the Way of deception.
Therefore, if able, appear unable,
if active, appear not active,
if near, appear far,
if far, appear near.
If they have advantage, entice them;
if they are confused, take them,
if they are substantial, prepare for them,
if they are strong, avoid them,
if they are angry, disturb them,
if they are humble, make them haughty,
if they are relaxed, toil them,
if they are united, separate them.
Attack where they are not prepared, go out to where they do not expect.

What brought that to mind was trying to figure out from Israeli maximum objectives and the unfolding of the battle what was actually happening.

Let us start by looking at deception plans in WW2. One of the most interesting deception plans in the Middle East was Plan Bertram used in the Battle of El Alamein in 1942.General Montgomery did a build up of equipment and supplies right under the German noses. A number of interesting deception plans of that era are described in a book "Bodyguard of Lies" by Brown which discusses British and American deception plans.

Since public morale and desires fit so much into how this war is prosecuted and what the outcome will be let us look at that Biblical quote. Banners with excerpts from that qoute (or a similar one) line the streets of Israel. The banners say Be of Strength and Courage!.So despite the rocket attacks morale is high in Israel. This is a war the Israelis want to fight despite the losses.Why would that be? Because they has finally come to the conclusion that the war is for their survival. There is nothing their enemies want except their deaths. I predicted this over a year ago when I discussed the Sharon Plan. There I talked about Gaza. Clearing the Lebanon Problem is a bonus.

The morale in Lebanon? Low. Few want to die for Hizbollah. Other than the fighters and many people forced to stay on the battlefields to act as human shields.

In Syria the people are agitating to get into the fight. Hizbollah is dying and the Syrian Army is idle. Right now morale and war fever is high. This is good for dictators. It means that when they use harsh measures they will have support.Even dictators must have some base of support. Assad came in as a reformer. However he has changed his tune.

Assad's response has been to ditch all pretenses of reform and appeal directly to the Islamic "street" in Syria and the wider region. That's when the posters of Assad flanked by Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad became ubiquitous in Damascus.

This spring, when the Prophet Muhammad cartoon controversy turned ugly, Assad's security police stood by while a mob torched the Danish Embassy in Damascus. Also this year, for the first time in many years, Syrians were allowed to publicly celebrate the Prophet's birthday.

Last week, cars with pale yellow Hezbollah flags paraded through the streets of Damascus, and cheers erupted in many neighborhoods when TV broadcast the news that Hezbollah rockets had hit Israeli targets.

All of this has greatly boosted the prestige of Assad. The young president now portrays himself as the defiant defender of the "resistance," determined to confront the U.S. and Israel everywhere in the Middle East.

That street is going to force him into a war if he wants to maintain his credibility as a strong leader. The only kind that survives in a dictatorship.

In Iran morale is low. There is a strong movement against helping Hizbollah. The government of course has different ideas.

The Arab world is rising up behind behind Hizbollah. The Egyptians lost the Six Day War and here Hizbollah has been fighting for over two weeks and is still in the field. A moral victory if not a real one.

So there is the civilian morale factors. There are of course others which I intend to ignore for purposes of this analysis.

Next I'd like to state Israel's maximum war aims, followed by how the war in Lebanon started and evolved. What is the desired outcome for Israel? The defeat of Hizbollah, Syria, and Iran.How do you do that? Pin the Hizbollah. Take the Bekaa resupply area. Syria gets involved out of popular desire, and because the Bekaa Valley is on the Syrian border. Iran comes in to support Syria. America takes out Iran.

So those are the goals and grand strategy. What strategy and tactics are required to achieve those goals?

The first part of the strategy was to give Hizbollah 24 hours to respond to Israeli demands to return its soldiers or else. With no response Israel crossed the border but didn't get far. Raids. Reconisance in force. Day after day. Occasionally new troops are called up. Stupid Olmert insist that they be used to relieve front line troops. They rotate in and out of what amounts to a live fire exercise. Hizbollah is being attrited but no ground is being gained. The Israeli Army and government is looking more and more incompetent by the day. Israel defeated five armies in the Six Day War. It is now going on two weeks plus and 5,000 Hezbollah fighters are holding the mighty Israeli Army within a few miles of the border. The front is static. The hizzies are winning. This is no Six Day War. The Israeli forces are checked by what appears to be a force barely adequate to hold them for a day let alone several weeks. Things are not going well. Not going well at all. The Arab street is convinced of the ineptness Israeli generalship. The civilians in goverment from Olmert on down are giving the military bad advice. Who put those galoots in charge? The thing that is fooling most people is that Olmert, Peretz, and the rest look and sound like nebbishes. And they are mostly Labor. Not known for their warrior spirit. All the better. And all the reporting about cabinet meetings saying there is dissention in the cabinent and they are holding the troops back.

That is almost all deception. Its purpose is to entice Syria and Iran. If that doesn't work secondary pressure can be brought from an inflamed Arab street. And the Arab street is on fire. So much so that Saudi Arabia has been forced to change its "official position" on the war. And the troop rotations? Well when the big push comes you will have a lot of very well and recently trained troops to lead the way and teach others. Reducing casualties.

In any case Hizbollah is pinned. Its forces reduced and the axis of advance to the Bekka Valley has had the chance and intensity of flank attacks reduced.

This is what is called preparing the battlefield. Such artistry hasn't been seen since WW2.These folks will go down as some of the greatest warriors in this century or any other. The only thing that could hurt this plan is lack of time.

That has always stopped the Israelis in the past. Not this time. Condi is making painfully slow progress. At the start Bush delayed any diplomacy for a week. Her latest gambit is proposing a multinational force (Which does not exist) to separate the two warring parties when the fighting stops (which it hasn't). Hizbollah can't stop fighting. Its street cred is on the line. How can it be a "resistance" if it stops resisting? So nothing useful diplomatically will be done for weeks. It does help to quiet the French street though. French diplomacy is also enhanced since Condi is proposing the French military be the lead force. Best to keep the jaw jaw going while the war war continues for those who need to believe something is being done by the International Community to stop the war.

What about American leadership? Bush is telling what is going on:

Bush said Thursday[27 July '06] that Iran is connected to Hizbullah, and now was the "time for the world to confront this danger."

Fortunately he is so stupid no one will believe him.

The next move to look for is an Israeli advance into the Bekaa. Expect it in less than a week.

What is the end state in Iran? The Iranian people who are already unhappy with the government and might over throw it for losing a war. Think Russia 1917. If they start lobbing missiles at Israel, Bush might invoke his mutual defence promises to Israel and attack Iran.

The really interesting thing is that the hizzies, Syria, and Iran are so enmeshed in the Israeli plan that no matter what move they make now it will only give them bad and worse options. At this point you could lay the plan out in front of them and it wouldn't make any difference. They are defeated.

What about the hizzies? The primere rule of guerilla warfare is no fixed positions. Mobility. The typical mistake guerillas make is transitioning to normal military formations before the field is appropriately developed. i.e. the opposition weakened and sufficient recruiting and training is possible. Hizbollah hoped to beat this problem by taking over the Lebanese Army. The Israelis beat them to it and forced them into a war for which they were not prepared. That is called a spoiling attack. The number one mistake that Hizbollah made at the start of all this was that they were a guerilla movement that didn't know where its sanctuary was. They thought it was in Lebanon on the border with Israel. That thinking forced it to fight toe to toe with a regular army that had tanks and an airforce. Almost always the death of guerilla movements. Get out the old vegematic. Slice and dice time.

As to book larnin' may I suggest "Strategy" by B.H.L. Hart. The premiere book in the field and required reading for all the American Armed Services. There is a nice addendum by General Yigal Yadin discussing battles in the 1948 war for Independence. Another set of books that is easy to read and also required reading by all the American Ground Services (Army and Marines) is Gordon R. Dickson's Dorsai series. Start with "Tactics of Mistake".

I am having so much fun with this. Sadly.

Well death to our enemies. Coming soon to a theater near you.

=====================

My thinking for the above article developed out of comments made at the following blogs.

Power and Control
Winds of Change
Winds of Change
Winds of Change
Winds of Change
Captain's Quarters
Captain's Quarters

Update 01 Aug '06 0438z

For those interested in my defence of the above speculations see the following threads:

Winds of Change
Captain's Quarters
Bellmont Club

Update: 02 Aug '06 0519z

As I predicted above Israel has moved into the Bekaa. Some good maps are linked as well.

Update: 12 Aug '06 0258z

Unfrozen Caveman Linguist links with a very good analysis. (article dated 10 Aug)

Technorati:
Israel, Shalit, Olmert, Palestinians, Middle East, Hamas, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Gaza, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Nasrallah, Palestine, Bush, Arab League, Intifada, America, United States, USA, Golan Heights, Shebba Farms

How Israel Could Attack Syria

I'm thinking the about the Desert Campaign Monty fought ('42 I think) where he did a build up right under the German noses.

Next new moon is around 23 August. So you add troops. They rotate with those in the field. You pull them back. Add more troops. Get them in live fire excercises against the hizzies. Pull them back. Rotate. Things are going poorly for the Israelis. A few thousand hizzies are holding them up. This draws troops to the front. i.e. off the flanks of the proposed advance axis.

Set up a pattern of operations.

Wait for the invitable relaxation: everything normal. The Israelis are doing their usual. Barely holding their front against the hizzies. Drawing in more hizzies as they kill those at the front. The front is static. The hizzies are winning. This is no six day war. The Israeli forces are checked by what appears to be a force barely adequate to hold them for a day let alone several weeks.

Then boom. A run on the Bekaa with a feint towards Beirut. Or perhaps a feint on the Golan or Shebba Farms front.

Syria comes in boom boom. No more air force . No more army.

There is significant agitation in Syria to get in to the fight. If Syria comes in on its own it will be closer to the full moon. Which is about 8 Aug.

Either way Syria is on the target list IMO.

Inspired by this discussion at Captain's Quarters.

Technorati:
Israel, Olmert, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Syria, Nasrallah, Golan Heights, Shebba Farms

A Look at the Map

Here is an excellent map showing UN positions in Lebanon and Israeli incursions.

It shows why Syria is on full alert.

I'm still of the opinion that Israel must take out Syria to win this fight. Since I believe that Israel wants to win I'm betting that there will be an attack on the Bekaa Valley at minimum within the next week (tonight is the new moon). Likely expanding into a war with Syria.

We shall see.

Here is a link to the Counter Terrorism Blog main page. Which is where I found the map.

Technorati:
Israel, Olmert, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Syria, Nasrallah, Iran