The Trouble With French Banks

Zero Hedge reports.

...when it comes to downgrade reviews the rating agencies are notorious for being as unpredictable in their timing as they are conflicted in their rating: for example even though Belgium was supposed to be downgraded months ago due to the fact that it continues to be the longest running modern anarchy, nothing has occurred, as political interests are obviously pushing the raters to do as paying clients request, not as reality demands. Alas, for France, which is very sensitive to any inkling it may have a less than sterling rating (due to its sovereign AAA requirement without which the EFSF/ESM falls apart), the luck may have run out. Bloomberg reports that the abovementioned banks "may have their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service as soon as next week because of their Greek holdings, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

The fall of the Euro may be imminent. Place your bets accordingly.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Palin: Libyans Should Be Protected By Nato

Sarah Palin says Libya should be declared a no-fly zone.

...Gaddafi is a brutal killer and Libya – not to mention the world – would be better off if he were out of power. Now is the time to speak out. Speak out for the long-suffering Libyan people. Speak out for the victims of Gaddafi’s terror. NATO and our allies should look at establishing a no-fly zone so Libyan air forces cannot continue slaughtering the Libyan people.

You know what the Peacemongers will say:

Damn Warmongers interfering in the internal affairs of other nations. Every nation has the right to kill its own citizens in mass quantities. The Warmongers should stay out and let the slaughter proceed.

I believe that we are witnessing the start of the next world war.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Tales Of Espionage

Think Israel has an article up on British and French espionage in Palestine in the 1945 to 1948 era.

The article begins with:

The discovery of previously classified documents in a French archive provides us with material to understand the secret war waged by the British against the Zionist Movement and the Jewish state.

It makes you wonder what the various powers are up to in that area today. One thing for sure: nothing is what it seems.

Hamas Is Breaking

Iran's ally Syria has called for a cease fire in Gaza that accepts at least part of what the Israelis wanted.

Syrian President Bashar Assad called on Israel to cease its military operation in Gaza immediately, while simultaneously demanding that Hamas cease its fire towards Israel.

In an interview with the BBC network Assad warned that the fighting in Gaza could lead to the exacerbation of Islamic extremism in the Middle East.

"The effects of the war are more dangerous than the war itself," he said during Wednesday's interview. "It's planting the seeds for extremism and terror in the entire region."

Assad accused Israel of refusing to honor the ceasefire that expired in December and claimed it was the State's responsibility to halt the "murder" of the Palestinians and the siege on Gaza.

He claimed Syria, which plays host to a number of senior Hamas officials, was doing everything in its power to put an end to the fighting.

Aside from the usual anti-Israel rhetoric this is a big development. Both Syria and Hamas are supported by Iran. As to making extremism in the Middle East worse. I believe the war with Hamas is doing the opposite. It is showing that extremism doesn't pay.

As for Israel refusing to honor the cease fire? I believe the cease fire never existed - the rockets never stopped. In addition Hamas called off the cease fire anyway. Just the normal cease fire deal in the Middle East. Israel must cease firing and for its enemies ceasing fire is optional.

In theory negotiations are going on in Egypt for a cease fire which Hamas claims to have accepted and also claims to have rejected.

Hamas has accepted the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire with Israel, the group said Wednesday evening, after talks in Cairo.

The Hamas delegation was making it way back to Damascus to brief the group's leaders.

Egyptian officials told the Middle East News Agency (MENA) that Hamas had responded positively to the country's efforts to mediate a Gaza cease-fire.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said he would relay Hamas's response to the Egyptian proposal to Israel.

However, Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon, said that Hamas's position regarding the Egyptian initiative had not changed. He said that despite reports that Hamas had agreed to the cease-fire initiative, there were still a number of differences between Egypt and the Islamist movement that needed to be addressed.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni were meeting in Jerusalem to discuss Israel's response to the initiative.

Also on Wednesday, France's foreign minister said his government was ready to talk to Hamas, if the group renounced violence and recognize Israel.

It will be interesting to see what is in the Egyptian proposal. I think it can be reliably assumed that stopping the rockets is a central element.

And those French. What dreamers. Hamas is dedicated to killing all the Jews in the world. Renouncing violence and recognizing Israel is not in the cards for Hamas.

I wonder how long it will take to complete the cease fire negotiations? The fact that Syria - who in effect speaks for Iran - has caved is significant. A cease fire by Friday is not out of the question. Of course this being the Middle East, negotiations could drag on for another week or more.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Arab Unity

It is looking like Arab unity is taking hold of developments in the Middle East. It appears that the Arabs are united in their disagreements.

Serious differences of opinion between Syria and Egypt are making the process of reaching a Gaza cease-fire agreement difficult. Syria has advised Hamas not to accept Egypt's cease-fire proposal, arguing it is too vague, particularly regarding the issue of Israel's withdrawal from the Strip.

In Syria's opinion, which is coordinated with Iran, the Egyptian proposal may undermine Hamas' position in the Gaza Strip and present Israel with an advantage.

And giving Israel an advantage would be bad. For Hamas and Iran.

And it appears that the Philistines are chasing that chimera of national unity again.

Hamas is demanding a return to the terms of the cease-fire that were reached last June, which bar Israel from attacking the Gaza Strip and demand that the calm be applied in the West Bank after six months. By this, Hamas would show that Israel had not achieved any political gains through its Gaza operation.

The Egyptian initiative, on the other hand, calls for a cease-fire that would take effect within 48-72 hours and would open border crossings to allow humanitarian aid into the Strip.

During the cease-fire, Egypt would hold talks with Israel and Hamas to reach a long-term agreement, and at a later stage would resume the talks between Hamas and Fatah over forming a national unity government.

Hamas is opposed to this proposal because it believes it recognizes Mahmoud Abbas as the president of the Palestinian Authority. His term officially ends Friday.

Syria has urged Hamas to demand that the first stage of a deal include the opening of the Rafah border crossing, a demand that Egypt rejects.

The Egyptians are only willing to open the crossing on the basis of the terms of a 2005 agreement, which requires the presence of Palestinian Authority officials, European Union observers and Israeli cameras.

No matter what agreement is reached, Hamas is going to get the short end of the stick. Iran is out of money and the rest of the Arab world is out of patience. All that is left now is the working out of the surrender terms.

So what is being discussed relative to surrender terms?

The United Nations Security Council on Thursday voted in favor of a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The United States abstained from the vote.

On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.

You have to love the UN. We agree. We agree! To what? That hasn't been decided yet. The greatest clown show on earth. Except for the US Congress.

On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.

I suppose they have an agreement in principle. And what is the principle? Let Israel and Hamas fight it out until one or the other gets tired.

"Peace will be made in the region, not in New York, but actions in New York can support the search for peace in the region," a senior British official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

With Palestinian civilian casualties mounting, the Arabs are under intense pressure to get a resolution - and several diplomats said they want it before Friday prayers at mosques in the region.

"We are not going to leave without a vote today," Moussa told reporters. The key elements are the withdrawal (of Israeli forces), cease-fire, the humanitarian situation, the opening of crossings.

But France, which holds the Security Council presidency this month, might want to delay a vote until Friday, diplomats said.

Egypt and Israel hold the keys to Gaza. They at least are in agreement. "We want nothing to do with the rabble in Gaza. The longer the Philistines stay penned in the Gaza cage the better for all concerned." Egypt, like Israel is not happy with their connection to the Gazans.

How about the Gazans? What are they currently after?

In a possible sign Hamas was unwilling to compromise yet, a senior Hamas official in Syria, Mohammed Nazzal, told Syrian TV on Thursday that the group would never surrender and vowed to fight house to house against Israeli troops in Gaza.

A joint statement issued by Palestinian groups based in Syria's capital
Thursday rejected the Egyptian-French initiative, saying it would undermine Gazans' resistance and give Israel a free hand to continue aggression.

Hamas is normally a member of the coalition, but it wasn't clear if it signed the statement. Hamas officials in Syria were not available for comment. Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon who is close to the group's top leader, said he was not aware of the statement.

Hamas wants a chance to fight house to house where they do best. The Israeli response of course is to lay siege to the major cities and let hunger and thirst do their work for them. That takes a while depending on the amount of stored food and water. Which would argue for another week or two of fighting given that pumped water supplies were cut off at the start of the dust up.

The fact that one top Hamas guy was not willing to sign on to a blood and guts statement may indicate their resolve is weakening. No matter what happens though the Hamas guys can point to one statement or another and say "that was our position all along." Because Arabs never lose wars and they are always right.

Democrats Strike Out

American Thinker recounts the latest moves in Congress with respect to drilling for new oil resources.

After reporting yesterday on Nancy Pelosi's desire to develop a comprehensive energy bill instead of an up or down vote on lifting off shore drilling restrictions, the GOP immediately saw through her transparent attempt to make the bill so poisonous some in her own party could never vote for it and have rejected the idea outright.

Cute. it appears the Democrats are not serious about gaining new sources of marketable oil.

What do the Republicans want?

Republicans lambasted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) energy plan Saturday advising her to “get out of the way” if she was not going to accept GOP solutions to the energy crisis.

In her Saturday radio address Pelosi announced that Democrats would consider opening up parts of the outer continental shelf for drilling as a part of a broad new energy plan that will be unveiled in the coming weeks.

[snip]

Republicans soundly rejected Pelosi’s proposal – indicating it was too little too late.

“Madame Speaker, we ask you to work with us to help Americans feeling pain at the pump by developing more American energy,” said Republican Study Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas). “If you refuse, we simply ask you get out of the way and allow us to help the people that sent us here.They understand how flawed and out of touch your caucus is on energy issues, and so do we.”

Republican Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (R-Fla.) added, ““There is no better, more qualified spokesperson for the Democratic Party’s failed energy policies than Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”

And how about them Russians? Wretchard looks at Russia's energy plan.

Most of Russia’s current power and influence comes from its production and control of energy. According to the DOE, “Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period.”

“Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports. In order to manage windfall oil receipts, the government established a stabilization fund in 2004. By the end of 2007, the fund was expected to be worth $158 billion, or about 12 percent of the country’s nominal GDP. According to calculations by Alfa Bank, the fuel sector accounts for about 20.5 percent of GDP, down from around 22 percent in 2000. According to IMF and World Bank estimates, the oil and gas sector generated more than 60 percent of Russia’s export revenues (64% in 2007), and accounted for 30 percent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country.”

Russia’s major market for natural gas is Europe.

So natural gas is not only a money maker for Russia. It is also a knife at the throat of Europe. However, it seems as if some one in Europe has grown a pair. And who would that be? A woman. German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, said "there is no such notion anymore in Georgia as Russian peacekeepers".

"There can be no Russian peacekeepers, these are just Russian forces."

Saakashvili was speaking at a news conference in Tbilisi with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, at which Merkel gave her support to Georgia's bid to join Nato, an ambition that is strongly opposed by Russia.

"Georgia will become a member of Nato if it wants to - and it does want to," Merkel said.

You know I think the correlation of forces is changing. I believe a lot of this is due to Russia overplaying its hand in Georgia.


And in other news Ukraine has announced that it will make its Russian missile shield data available to the West.

KIEV -- Ukraine said Saturday that it was ready to make its missile-warning systems available for Western countries after Russia announced that it was pulling out of a long-term cooperation agreement involving them.

A ministry statement said Russia's abrogation earlier this year of an agreement involving two tracking stations allowed Ukraine to cooperate with other countries on missile-warning systems and satellite tracking.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko issued a decree last week putting an end to Ukraine's participation in the accord in view of Russia's own abrogation of the deal.

A top Ukrainian security official, meanwhile, on Saturday discounted any notion of a separatist rebellion in Crimea as President Viktor Yushchenko proposed Kremlin talks on the issue of the Russian fleet based there.

Yushchenko enraged Moscow this week by ordering restrictions on the movement of ships in the Black Sea Fleet, based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Russia's military vowed to ignore the rules, saying the fleet answered only to Russia's president.

And not just the missile shield. The Ukraine wants to close the Black Sea to the Russian Fleet. That has got to hurt.

It looks like the firm stand of the US and the former Soviet Republics has stiffened the resolve of Germany and NATO. And who would understand how the lack of resolve on the part of its opponents could lead to a larger war than Germany? Evidently they still study the moves of the Austrian Corporal there. It is too bad France could not redeem its honor by announcing the welcoming of Georgia into NATO. However, what better way to finally rehabilitate Germany than giving them the honor?

And the Democrats? I wonder how many will survive the November election? Evidently they never took to heart the contradiction: No Blood For Oil or No Drilling For Oil? They haven't yet figured which policy to pursue. The Republicans have figured it out. Thank the Maker. And Bush? I think he will be remembered for a long time as the protector of liberty and self government in the former Soviet Republics.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Some One Just Got A Pole Up Their Posterior

The Polish President is not a happy camper. He has issues with Germany and France.

WARSAW, Poland: Poland's president criticized the way France and Germany have handled the crisis between Russia and Georgia, accusing them Saturday of being too soft on Moscow due to their commercial ties with Russia.

Lech Kaczynski also said that European Union policy was being decided by the two EU giants without taking into consideration the views of new EU members such as Poland that once fell under Moscow's control during the Cold War.

"Once again, it turns out that the real decisions in this organization are being made between Berlin and Paris," Kaczynski said in an interview published by the daily Rzeczpospolita and also posted on his official Web site.

"Saying that the Union will have a common policy toward Russia is laughable," Kaczynski said.

He said that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were setting EU policy toward Russia, even though it is the easternmost members that have the most at stake.

By commercial ties he means Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil.

Who stands with the Poles and Ukrainians and Georgians? The Americans. The Europeans are taking the same attitude towards Russia re: Georgia as they did towards Germany in the Rhineland incident in 1936. Or Poland in 1939. It is not our problem. And if it is a problem who cares about the Georgians and besides there is nothing we can do (so true) or will do (truer still).

If France and Germany want to be de facto Russian allies I say it is time to dissolve NATO. If they want some one to come to their aid in case of war perhaps they could enlist Russian help. Or perhaps China would be interested. Or their buddies in the Islamic world. Axis of weasels indeed.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Ask The French For Help

Nick has left an interesting comment on my error in the post Blazing Economies.

Seems to me the difference won't matter once the winter comes and the Russians shut the lights off on Germany.

I seem to recall that Secretary of State Rice warned the Europeans about getting too deeply dependent on Russian Energy supplies. Well what do you know? I recalled correctly.

ANKARA, Turkey, April 25 [2006 ed.] -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Tuesday warned Greece and Turkey against allowing Russia to obtain a monopoly over Europe's supply of natural gas, implicitly bolstering a planned pipeline from Azerbaijian that would weaken Russia's tight grip on European energy supply.

"It's quite clear that one of the concerns is that there could be a monopoly of supply from one source only, from Russia," Rice told reporters in Athens after meeting with Greek Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis.

Rice waded into the battle over the increasing dominance of Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom -- which recently sought a stake in a Greek-Turkish pipeline -- even as she sought to build support in Greece and Turkey for sanctions against Iran concerning its nuclear program.

Her trip to Athens was the first independent visit to Greece by a secretary of state in two decades. As she met with Bakoyannis, about 3,000 protesters marched with signs calling Rice a war criminal and urging her to "go home," and some youths clashed with riot police.

And who do they expect to defend them if the Russian Bear comes calling? I guess they couldn't see that far ahead. Fortunately, America has an administration with a little foresight.

What do you want to bet that the Euros ask for another American division to protect their sorry asses? I suppose we could just tell them we are busy. Ask the French for help.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Lights Are Going Out In Europe

It is true. The lights are going out in Europe. And the Europeans are extinguishing them.

PARIS, April 7 (UPI) -- The Olympic torch was doused Monday in Paris as demonstrators protested China's civil rights record and involvement in Tibet, police said.

After the flame was snuffed, the torch was put on a bus, moved to another location and relit, Sky News reported. The torch was then extinguished again and put on a bus a second time, CNN reported.

Heh.

H/T Instapundit

Paris Is Burning

Something the Germans wouldn't do to Paris the French are doing to themselves.

Some 300-400 demonstrators gathered on the Boulevard St Michel in the Latin Quarter of Paris, ostensibly to protest against a march by far-right supporters.

Shouting slogans like "Sarko fascist! The people will have your hide!" and "Police everywhere, justice nowhere!", the demonstrators were cornered by hundreds of police close to the nearby Luxembourg Gardens.

A police officer at the scene said 118 arrests had been made by 9.30 p.m. (1930 GMT).

The protests follow three nights of violent confrontations between police and young rioters in Paris and other cities that government politicians blame on inflammatory statements from left-wing politicians during the election campaign.

My daugher got inducted into the honors section of the Auburn High French Club last night. Nary a word about the political unrest in France.

H/T Commenter linearthinker

Remnants of Collaboration

About 1,000 apartment buildings in Nice, France have no Jews allowed clauses in their rental requirements.

PARIS – A municipal regulation in the southern French city of Nice requires apartment renters "to have a French citizenship and not to be Jewish."

According to the Nice Matin newspaper, the regulations were formulated in the days France collaborated with the Nazis during World War II.

The newspaper found out that such a clause appears in the regulations of about 1,000 apartment buildings in the Mediterranean city, and therefore remains valid to this day.

These remiders of the past have disgraced the French. It ruins their self image no doubt. Not enough to change their foreign policy of favoring the Arabs over Israel. Just enough to get the laws changed and try to bury the past, however. In any case, better late than never.