China Is Going Nazi

First Egypt and now China.

There is a growing trend in the Chinese blogosphere to vocalize praises and expressions of support for Hitler. If Chinese authorities fail to address this problem, dangerous consequences may ensue.

The Rumor

A rumor is spreading virally throughout the Middle Kingdom that asserts that Austrian-born Hitler was raised by a family of Chinese expats living in Vienna. According to the rumors, a family named Zhang found young Adolf - born on April 20, 1889, when he fell on hard times as a young man in Vienna.

They took him in, sheltered him, fed him and paid for his tuition. As a result of this assistance, Hitler held eternal gratitude and admiration for the Chinese people. The rumor also asserts that Hitler secretly supported China in World War II, and that his ultimate ambition was to conquer the world in order to share power with China, with everything west of Pakistan to be administered by the Fuhrer, and everything east of Pakistan the province of the Chinese people.

This rumor apparently resonates deeply with the Chinese Internet generation. On May 10, 2011, a user of Kaixin, the Chinese equivalent of Facebook, posted a version of the rumor on his wall. The post attracted an enormous following, with more than 170,000 views and 40,000 comments.

Talk about your revisionist history. This has got to take the cake. Birthers and Truthers can't hold a candle to this one.

Hitler did not admire Chinese people. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth. Hitler regarded Chinese as an inferior race. Many Chinese bloggers are quick to point out that Hitler once said, "The Chinese people are not the same as the Huns and Tartars, who dressed in leather, they are a special race; they are a civilized race."

This quotation only stands for the proposition that Hitler considered the Chinese to be higher on the racial totem pole than Mongolians, but it says nothing about where they rank overall. In fact, Hitler believed that Aryans were the only "culture-creating race", while the Chinese and Japanese were merely "culture-bearing".

Hitler viewed the Chinese people as an inferior race, and actually blamed them for many of the world's problems. For more information, see The Racial State: Germany 1933-1945 by Michael Burleigh.

Hitler did not support China in World War II. China's principal support in World War II came from the United States. In 1941, the American Air Force created a special squadron called the Flying Tigers (fei hu) to fly covert missions over East Asia to defend the Republic of China against Japanese incursions.

The article goes on to discuss the sorry state of history education in China and compares it to the similar sorry state of history teaching in Japan. Read the whole thing.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

2055 Years

“The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.” -- Cicero , 55 B.C.

Fukushima Roundup - 12 April

Here are some links to keep you up to speed on the nuclear disaster at Fukushima.

Interview With A Site Cleanup Worker - He talks about a worker only being able to turn three bolts before exceeding the allowable radiation dose. - Note you may have to use a browser other than Firefox to watch the video. I couldn't get it to work for me. IE (ugh) worked fine.

TEPCO aerial drone - The whole site is very good and not prone to hysteria. When he gets numbers that don't seem right he fact checks.

Cryptome - A repository of all kinds of stuff including some really good Fukushima site pictures. Fairly well organized. Just go down the list (organized by date with good descriptions) and pick what you want.

IAEA Fukushima Accident Log updated daily.

Radiation Readings In Japan organized by prefecture. Thanks to Charlie Martin for this one.

EPA Radiation Monitoring - Radiation in the air, in the drinking water, in the rain, in the milk. For the USA. I believe 3 pCi per liter is the US limit. The moral for this week? Don't drink the rain water. And pregnant women and children might want to avoid the milk in some regions. And if you live in Hawaii? I'd get all my food and water from the mainland if I lived there. Maybe not right away. But definitely something to keep an eye on.

ex-SKF - A little on the paranoid side (maybe just cautious), but he reads Japanese and translates items of interest. Tends towards rational libertarianism in politics. i.e. if America stops being a superpower who will fill the power vacuum and how big a war will it take?

Radiation Dose Chart what a given dose means in terms of normal background radiation and allowable limits.

Fairewinds Associates - Arnie Gunderson - the link goes to the videos. You can get to the rest of the site from there.

Radiation Aerial Survey Maps of Japan - US Gov

Monsoon Wind Patterns.

In most years, the monsoonal flow shifts in a very predictable pattern, with winds being southwesterly in late June, bringing significant rainfall to the Korean peninsula and Japan. This leads to a reliable precipitation spike in July and August. However, this pattern occasionally fails, leading to drought and crop failure. In the winter, the winds are northeasterly and the monsoonal precipitation bands move back to the south, and intense precipitation occurs over southern China and Taiwan.

If we get the normal monsoons this year and the reactors at Fukushima are still spewing.....

If you know of any other sites that should be on the list send me an e-mail or leave the url in the comments. Bare urls (no HTML) are OK - I'll fix them for the post.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Japan Post Tsunami - It Is Worse Than We Thought

Zero Hedge has an article up by a person who has close contacts with Japan. Especially in the financial markets.

I just got off the phone with several frightened, somewhat dazed survivors of the Japanese earthquake who work in the financial markets, and I thought it important to immediately pass on what they said. Some were clearly terrified.

Japan’s economic outlook now appears far more dire than I anticipated only a day ago. It looks like GDP growth rate is going to instantly flip from +2% to -3%, a swing of -5%, similar to what we saw after the Kobe earthquake in 1995. We have just had a “V” shaped economy dumped in our laps, and we have just embarked on a precipitous down leg. Two very weak quarters will be followed by two strong ones. The initial damage estimate is $60-$120 billion, and that will certainly rise.

Kobe had a larger immediate impact because of its key location as a choke point for the country’s rail and road transportation networks and ports. But the Sendai quake has affected a far larger area. Magnifying the impact is the partial melt down at the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear power plant, forcing the evacuation of everyone within a 12 mile radius.

Most major companies, including Toyota, Nissan, Honda, and Sony have shut down all domestic production. Management want to tally death tolls, damage to plant and equipment, and conduct emergency safety reviews. In any case, most employees are unable to get to work because of the complete shutdown of the rail system. Tokyo’s subway system is closed, stranding 25 million residents there.

Electric power shortages are a huge problem. The country’s eight Northern prefectures are now subject to three hour daily black outs and power rationing, including Tokyo. That has closed all manufacturing activity in the most economically vital part of the country.

Panic buying has emptied out every store in the major cities of all food and bottled water. Gas stations were cleaned out of all supplies and reserves, since much of Japan’s refining capacity has been closed.

There is much more at the link.

Now what if the Japanese stop buying US Treasury Notes to pay for the disaster? Or worse they start selling? We have had 20 fat years. We look to be heading into 20 lean years. Bummer.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

China Rising

Foreign Policy Magazine thinks the rise of China and the fall of America is inevitable.

...when it comes to the broader geopolitical picture, the world of the future looks even more like a zero-sum game, despite the gauzy rhetoric of globalization that comforted the last generation of American politicians. For the United States has been acting as if the mutual interests created by globalization have repealed one of the oldest laws of international politics: the notion that rising players eventually clash with established powers.

In fact, rivalry between a rising China and a weakened America is now apparent across a whole range of issues, from territorial disputes in Asia to human rights. It is mercifully unlikely that the United States and China would ever actually go to war, but that is because both sides have nuclear weapons, not because globalization has magically dissolved their differences.

Well that is optimistic. If it weren't for the fact that China with its one child policy is aging at the rate of about .9 year per year while the US is holding more or less steady at around 40 years. China has a 20 year window before demographics get them. At roughly $4,000 per capita income they will have to grow 10X larger to have a per capita wealth equal to the US.

But there is a fly in the ointment. They seem to be having some economic difficulties.

Following the now extremely well documented surge in short-term SHIBOR [Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate - ed.] and Chinese repo rates, it appears that banks have begun attempting to extract the missing liquidity from end consumers. Various Chinese commercial banks raised lending rates between 10 and 45% over the benchmark rate because of a shortage of funds, the China Securities Journal reported today, citing an unidentified bank official. In the meantime, SHIBOR refuses to pull back, hitting an unsustainable 8.05%, which is worse than Portuguese 10 year rates. Will this sustain? Unclear - the Chinese new year must pass and the recent surge in snowfalls will have to recede before a steady state evaluation can be made, however as we have been warning since December, in a country having one of the biggest asset-liability mismatches, the negative curve convexity on tightening fears, will blow up the near end, isolating bank liquidity. To say that this is bad news if it persists is an understatement.

Uh. Oh.

I can't count the number of times in my lifetime when the US was counted out and then came back stronger than ever. The USSR and Communism. Japan. And now China. I'm not buying it. America will be back once we get our political class sorted. And that is happening as we speak.

Chinese Threats

I have been wondering about China. Especially the threats to America over arms sales to Taiwan. And I wonder if the threats aren't mostly for internal consumption. What made me think of this was the popping of China's real estate bubble.

Why internal consumption? To justify a large army. And why a large army? To handle unrest caused by possibilities such as:

Wow, China fighting inflation with predictions of 50% commercial vacancy rates in Beijing, Japan is Japan, Vietnam is worried about their Dong, and Europe and South America are a mess - it looks like it’s up to America to save us because, as I said earlier in the week - do you really have anywhere better to put your money?

China's government depends on growth to keep the population pacified.

What about the big picture? The world has been generating more capital than it can profitably employ. Which means we are under invested in research. Which is the cause of our secular decline.

Human Development

I was looking at some different stuff by following a wiki trail and came across something called the Human Development Index. It is used to rate countries. It has the usual expected countries in the top. The USA comes in at #13 with a .956 score for instance.

What surprised me were the following countries that rated above .900.
#31 Kuwait 0.916
#33 Qatar 0.910
#35 United Arab Emirates 0.903

Compare them to Israel which ranks #27 with a 0.935 score.

So what got me started looking into this? I wanted to know how Iraq was doing. Iraq did not give sufficient information to be HDI rated. But there are some clues. Per capita income on a Purchasing Power Parity scale is $3,655. Not bad. On a strict dollar basis the number is $2,195.

We do know that a GDP per capita of around $3K to $5K a year is the region of transition. The environment becomes a priority. Self government becomes a priority. On a PPP scale Iraq is in the zone. What do they need to get on a solid footing (rather than a shaky footing that being in the transition zone implies)? About 10 years of 10% a year growth. Can it be done? Yes. Will it be done? It all depends on the resoluteness of their American ally. Can America be counted on? South Vietnam still casts a long shadow on that question.

Saudis Green Light Israel

According to The Daily Express UK Saudi Arabia has green lighted an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

INTELLIGENCE chief Sir John Scarlett has been told that Saudi Arabia is ready to allow Israel to bomb Iran’s new nuclear site.

The head of MI6 discussed the issue in London with Mossad chief Meir Dagan and Saudi officials after British intelligence officers helped to uncover the plant, in the side of a mountain near the ancient city of Qom.

The site is seen as a major threat by Tel Aviv and Riyadh. Details of the talks emerged after John Bolton, America’s former UN ambassador, told a meeting of intelligence analysts that “Riyadh certainly approves” of Israel’s use of Saudi airspace.

It looks like Zbigniew Brzezinski's suggestion that the US shoot down any Israeli jets attacking Iran when they are over Iraq has become a moot point.

The national security adviser for former President Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski, gave an interview to The Daily Beast in which he suggested President Obama should make it clear to Israel that if they attempt to attack Iran's nuclear weapons sites the U.S. Air Force will stop them.

"We are not exactly impotent little babies," Brzezinski said. "They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch? ... We have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren’t just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not.

And Dearest Zbig, what if they avoid Iraqi airspace by overflying Saudi Arabia? And heaven forfend what if the American military fails to follow orders? Or just suddenly becomes inept? What then Zbig?

One need only look at the Saudi reaction to the 2006 war against Hizballah (an Iranian proxy) in Lebanon. Their first reaction was "we have no dog in this fight". Followed by "evil Israelis." However, they sat on their hands the whole time.

The world is routing around damage. And the damage? Obama and his crew of Marxists psychophants. Thank the Maker there are still some adults in the world.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The US Navy Worries About Global Warming

The US Navy worries that reduced ice in the arctic will increase its responsibilities for maritime patrols in that area.

Climate change and reduced sea ice cover may result in opening up the Arctic to vastly increased resource development and commercial traffic. These trends will inevitably spark international conflicts and create a need for more military forces to provide security and protect interests in the Arctic region. This is bad news for the U.S. Navy, already hard-pressed by shrinking fleets and rising challenges elsewhere.

Rear Adm. David Titley, the U.S. Navy's top oceanographer, was recently in Barrow, Alaska supervising a global warming research expedition. According to Titley, changes in Arctic sea ice cover will require a new assessment of the Navy's maritime strategy. Such an assessment will likely recommend changes to military infrastructure in the Arctic, military force structure deployed to the Arctic, and new capabilities to respond to a changing Arctic climate.

Resource development in the Arctic will certainly be a problem. Especially if there are conflicts between Russia and the USA or Russia and Canada. However the worries about the Russians may be overblown because the Russian Fleet is in serious decline. And fears of loss of Arctic Sea ice may also be overblown. Because the extent of Arctic Sea Ice appears to be rebounding unusually early compared to 2007 and 2008. Of course that is weather and not climate. But the Climate experts at the IPCC expect a cooling trend until at least 2020. So the Navy may have a bit of time to get its act together.

Is China Cooking The Books?

Forbes Magazine is looking at the numbers coming out of China and comes to the conclusion that they don't add up.

China watchers have been dubious about the quality of Chinese economic data for some time. And a recent spate of seemingly conflicting data has fuelled that criticism.

One particular quibble involves the relationship between electricity usage and industrial value added -- another measure of output. The worry is that failings in the way official data are compiled may be generating results that are giving investors misconceptions about the health of China's economy.

During the first half of this year, industrial value-added rose a robust 7 percent, while total electricity usage fell 2.24 percent. This seemingly implies that output is growing and contracting simultaneously. The divergence has attracted attention, not least because industry is half of the economy and electricity usage is one of those bits of data that is hard to massage. Even Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has openly said that electricity usage is the data that he trusts most.

Craig Pirrong at Seeking Alpha comments on the Chinese numbers.

First, reported Chinese growth is a chimera. Chinese government statistics appear no more reliable than Soviet figures. The disconnect between electricity generation changes and reported growth is highly suspicious, especially for a manufacturing-intensive economy noted for its energy-intensity as well. The focus on big state firms that don’t produce what people want, and the slighting of small firms that do, in the collection and reporting of statistics also raises red flags (and not of the Red Flag of Revolution! variety).

Second, Chinese growth reporting is eerily like 90s-style earnings management. There’s a target, and the numbers WILL be massaged in whatever way necessary to hit the target. Indeed, some of the tactics bring sordid episodes like Enron and WorldCom to mind.

Third, it seems that the Chinese are betting on a recovery in the West, and hence a concomitant recovery in exports, and are determined to keep up the earnings management and the credit stimulus until that happens. That is a highly risky strategy. If the desired recovery doesn’t happen before the bubbles collapse, China will face both a domestic demand and a foreign demand crunch. Moreover, even if “successful” in the sense that a recovery in exports allows the government to ease up on the stimulus, it will have contributed to a substantial misallocation of capital and created the risk of substantial inflation.

It seems to me that a number of governments around the world (especially the USA) think they can inflate their way out of the problems caused by inflated bubbles. What happens when that is no longer possible? We get the worst of all possible worlds. Low or negative growth and inflation.

For an extreme example of that look at Zimbabwe.

Pirates

The immediate pirate crisis is over with the killing of three pirates, the capture of a wounded fourth and the recovery of Captain Phillips unharmed physically.

The American captain taken hostage by Somali pirates aboard a lifeboat was freed today after making a second daring escape bid that allowed waiting US forces to open fire on his captors.

Three of the four pirates were killed in the firefight and the fourth was injured but survived and was taken into custody, according to initial reports.

US officials said that Captain Richard Phillips was unharmed and safe aboard the US Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Bainbridge last night.

“I can confirm that Captain Phillips has been safely recovered,” Laura Tischler, a State Department spokeswoman, said.

What I don't understand is why we don't deal with those pirates the way it used to be done.

The wiki gives a short history of our war with the pirates of Tripoli.

By late 1793, a dozen American ships had been captured, goods stripped and everyone enslaved. Portugal had offered some armed patrols, but American merchants needed an armed American presence to sail near Europe. After some serious debate, the United States Navy was born in March 1794. Six frigates were authorized, and so began the construction of the United States, the Constellation, the Constitution and three other frigates.

This new military presence helped to stiffen American resolve to resist the continuation of tribute payments, leading to the two Barbary Wars along the North African coast: the First Barbary War from 1801 to 1805 and the Second Barbary War in 1815. It was not until 1815 that naval victories ended tribute payments by the U.S., although some European nations continued annual payments until the 1830s.

The United States Marine Corps actions in these wars led to the line "to the shores of Tripoli" in the opening of the Marine Hymn. Because of the hazards of boarding hostile ships, Marines' uniforms had a leather high collar to protect against cutlass slashes. This led to the nickname Leatherneck for U.S. Marines.

After the general pacification of 1815, the European powers agreed upon the need to suppress the Barbary pirates. The sacking of Palma on the island of Sardinia by a Tunisian squadron, which carried off 158 inhabitants, roused widespread indignation.

American resolve is still obvious. The question is: why are these pirate harbors allowed to function? Who is selling them fuel? Why aren't they being blockaded? Why aren't they being bombed? Why isn't a punitive expedition on the way? Are the Europeans so weak that they are helpless? In a word - yes. They have no fight left in them. Someone might get killed.

PARIS - Navy commandos stormed a French sailboat held by pirates off the Somali coast Friday in an assault triggered by threats the passengers would be executed. But one hostage was killed in the operation, demonstrating the risks of a military operation against sea bandits.

So what is the French attitude? They intend to finance more piracy.

In a break with French government policy, authorities proposed paying a ransom during 48 hours of fruitless talks, but the pirates, armed with Kalashnikov rifles, rejected the offer, Morin said, without divulging a sum.

The French also offered the pirates a French naval officer to hold in exchange for a mother and child but that too was rejected, the minister said.

The pirates can't operate without fuel and a safe harbor. So obviously you destroy their fuel supplies and their harbor. Sink all the ships in the harbor. Bomb all known pirate hideouts ashore and any other targets of interest for good measure. If piracy doesn't pay there will be a lot fewer pirates.

Update:

You can learn how the pirates of the Caribbean were brought down by reading The Republic of Pirates: Being the True and Surprising Story of the Caribbean Pirates and the Man Who Brought Them Down. And Wars of the Barbary Pirates: To the shores of Tripoli: the birth of the US Navy and Marines might also be of interest.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Even The Israelis Get It

Nehemia Shtrasler in a Haaretz article called The Alchemist tells what lies ahead for the US economy under Mr. Obama.

The United States faces a huge crisis because it has lived beyond its means and has done so quite irresponsibly. Obama seeks to continue on the exact same path, though on a much larger scale.

So the next crisis is inevitable. Whoever increases spending will end up with a broken water trough while the world agrees to lend more money, though at beggars' prices. This will also happen to the United States. Inflation will rise, the dollar will weaken, interest rates will jump sky-high, and economic growth will be buried in the ground. In other words, stagflation.

Obama thinks he has discovered the philosopher's stone. He fancies himself an alchemist who can heal the economy painlessly and without consequence. His crash landing back to reality will be difficult and painful.

And I was saying this before the election. Jimmy Carter's second term. Stagflation. Ruinous spending for no economic result.

His second problem is that geopolitics could intrude and cause him further misery.

I must admit that I have already developed mild ODS. I just can't stand watching him or listening to him on the tube. YouTube or the other one.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Hamas Is Weakening

Hamas is getting heavy pressure from Iran to keep on fighting.

Iran is exerting heavy pressure on Hamas not to accept the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire with Israel, an Egyptian government official said on Sunday.

The official told The Jerusalem Post by phone that two senior Iranian officials who visited Damascus recently warned Hamas leaders against accepting the proposal.

His remarks came as Hamas representatives met in Cairo with Egyptian Intelligence Chief Gen. Omar Suleiman and his aides to discuss ways of ending the fighting in the Gaza Strip.

The Hamas representatives reiterated their opposition to a cease-fire that did not include the reopening of all the border crossings into the Gaza Strip, Hamas spokesmen said on Sunday.

The spokesmen said Hamas voiced its strong opposition to the idea of deploying an international force inside the Gaza Strip.

The Egyptian official said that the two Iranian emissaries, Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Said Jalili of the Iranian Intelligence Service, met in the Syrian capital with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ramadan Shallah.

"As soon as the Iranians heard about the Egyptian cease-fire initiative, they dispatched the two officials to Damascus on an urgent mission to warn the Palestinians against accepting it," the Egyptian government official told the Post.

"The Iranians threatened to stop weapons supplies and funding to the Palestinian factions if they agreed to a cease-fire with Israel. The Iranians want to fight Israel and the US indirectly. They are doing this through Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in Lebanon."

This can only mean that Hamas is seriously hurting. It also means Iran is expecting full price for what it has paid for. It probably also means that they can't afford to pay for much rebuilding and would like to put off for a few more days at least the tendering of the bill. However, every day they put off payment causes the price to go up. Perhaps they are expecting the price of oil to spike. If so they are out of luck. After going up to the $50 a bbl. range oil has fallen back to around $40 a bbl. With Hizballah quiet and Hamas taking a very serious beating Iran has lost a lot of prestige with the current war.

Perhaps Iran is hoping that in only eight more days the new administration in Washington will save them. With respect to that I think it will be a question of who gave Obama more funds for his election campaign the Saudis or the Iranians, and/or who he intends to double cross throw under the bus.

Meanwhile the Syrians are putting in a token appearance.

The fighting in Gaza appeared to reach the Golan Heights on Sunday when gunshots were fired at an IDF vehicle along the border with Syria. It was the second attack along Israel's northern border since Operation Cast lead began in late December.

If a serious attack by Syria was planned they would not fire a few token shots to announce their intentions. I think the urban renewal that Lebanon got in 2006 has decided the question for the Syrians. I don't think they want a piece of that action given that their patron Iran is in serious internal financial difficulties with inflation in Iran running well above the CIA estimate of around 18%.

It also appears that Egypt is considering digging a moat across southern Gaza to deter future smuggling tunnels.

Egypt is considering a range of proposals on how to stop weapons smuggling through tunnels along the Philadelphi Corridor into Gaza, including the construction of a moat along the border that separates the Sinai desert from the Gaza Strip, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

Israel has destroyed close to 150 tunnels since the beginning of Operation Cast Lead but estimates that there are at least another 150 tunnels along the 14-kilometer corridor. On Sunday, the Air Force bombed close to 30 tunnels that it said were used by Hamas to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip.

Amos Gilad, the head of the Defense Ministry's Diplomatic-Security Bureau, is scheduled to travel to Egypt later this week to hear Cairo's offer concerning the tunnels.

Since the operation began, Hamas has made attempts to smuggle weapons into Gaza through the remaining tunnels, officials said. Iran, they added, was trying to get explosives and weaponry - including long-range rockets - to the Sinai, from where supplies are transferred into the Gaza Strip.

While Israel has conditioned its acceptance of a cease-fire on an end to smuggling, the Egyptians have made clear that it will not permit the deployment of a foreign military presence on its sovereign territory. Egypt has however agreed to receive technological assistance from different countries including Germany and the United States, which has already sent combat engineers to Rafah in an advisory capacity.

The ring is tightening around Hamas and Iran.

Iran's last hope is getting atomic weapons. And even they they are not out of the woods. The weapons are defensive in nature, because if they use them offensively they will get wiped out. However, they are still trying.

The Iranian businessman was looking for high-quality American electronics, but he had to act stealthily: The special parts he coveted were denied to Iranians, especially those seeking to make roadside bombs to kill U.S. troops in Iraq.

With a few e-mails, the problem was solved. A friendly Malaysian importer would buy the parts from a company in Linden, N.J., and forward them to Iran. All that was left was coming up with a fake name for the invoice. Perhaps a Malaysian engineering school? "Of course, you can use any other company as end-user that you think is better than this," the Iranian businessman, Ahmad Rahzad, wrote in an e-mail dated March 8, 2007.

The ruse succeeded in delivering nine sensors called inclinometers to Iran, the first of several such shipments that year and the latest example of what U.S. officials and weapons experts describe as Iran's skillful flouting of export laws intended to stop lethal technology from reaching the Islamic republic.

Inclinometers are gravity based attitude sensors. They would most likely be used in rocket guidance systems. I'm sure that is not all the Iranians are looking for. What all this means is that Iran has not given up its atomic ambitions.

There is a book out, Human Security in East Asia: Challenges for Collaborative Action,dealing with atomic weapons in the Near East. The Daily Times is of the opinion that the weapons are defensive in nature.

Nuclear deterrence is also not what it used to be, that is, the US deterring another superpower. Today it is challenged to deal with asymmetric nuclear threats which could come from a terrorist organization. Medium and small sized states acquiring weapons through proliferation seek to deter in a variety of patterns: to stave off conventional invasion, to shake off coercion and blackmail, etc. North Korea’s weapons deter coercive action in the region by the US; Iran wants to avoid ‘regime change’ compulsions; and Pakistan wants to deter perceived military aggression from India. On the other hand, India wishes to ensure security for its posture of a global power.

The new nuclear states face dangerous constraints — dangerous because they compel unorthodox behavior — like scarce resources, lack of technology and domestic scientific expertise and, last but not least, an undertow of suicidal nationalism. Once the weapons are acquired, the problem of establishing a command and control is compounded once again because of lack of technology and funds. India and Pakistan are faced with severe constraints in establishing their command and control systems, thus introducing the world to a new series of dangers, including accidental launch and repossession by terrorists.

It is possible that with Iran in such a precarious financial situation it fears internal problems more than external ones. Of course thinking you know the other guy's intentions while being severely mistaken is how wars start. Or at least start badly. One only need look up the history of December 7th, 1941 (At Dawn We Slept is a good one) to see the folly of not preparing for capabilities rather than relying on perceived intentions to see the folly of the method of intentions.

So where will all this lead? In the near term Iran is going to have trouble buying new friends and keeping old ones.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Arab Unity

It is looking like Arab unity is taking hold of developments in the Middle East. It appears that the Arabs are united in their disagreements.

Serious differences of opinion between Syria and Egypt are making the process of reaching a Gaza cease-fire agreement difficult. Syria has advised Hamas not to accept Egypt's cease-fire proposal, arguing it is too vague, particularly regarding the issue of Israel's withdrawal from the Strip.

In Syria's opinion, which is coordinated with Iran, the Egyptian proposal may undermine Hamas' position in the Gaza Strip and present Israel with an advantage.

And giving Israel an advantage would be bad. For Hamas and Iran.

And it appears that the Philistines are chasing that chimera of national unity again.

Hamas is demanding a return to the terms of the cease-fire that were reached last June, which bar Israel from attacking the Gaza Strip and demand that the calm be applied in the West Bank after six months. By this, Hamas would show that Israel had not achieved any political gains through its Gaza operation.

The Egyptian initiative, on the other hand, calls for a cease-fire that would take effect within 48-72 hours and would open border crossings to allow humanitarian aid into the Strip.

During the cease-fire, Egypt would hold talks with Israel and Hamas to reach a long-term agreement, and at a later stage would resume the talks between Hamas and Fatah over forming a national unity government.

Hamas is opposed to this proposal because it believes it recognizes Mahmoud Abbas as the president of the Palestinian Authority. His term officially ends Friday.

Syria has urged Hamas to demand that the first stage of a deal include the opening of the Rafah border crossing, a demand that Egypt rejects.

The Egyptians are only willing to open the crossing on the basis of the terms of a 2005 agreement, which requires the presence of Palestinian Authority officials, European Union observers and Israeli cameras.

No matter what agreement is reached, Hamas is going to get the short end of the stick. Iran is out of money and the rest of the Arab world is out of patience. All that is left now is the working out of the surrender terms.

So what is being discussed relative to surrender terms?

The United Nations Security Council on Thursday voted in favor of a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The United States abstained from the vote.

On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.

You have to love the UN. We agree. We agree! To what? That hasn't been decided yet. The greatest clown show on earth. Except for the US Congress.

On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.

I suppose they have an agreement in principle. And what is the principle? Let Israel and Hamas fight it out until one or the other gets tired.

"Peace will be made in the region, not in New York, but actions in New York can support the search for peace in the region," a senior British official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

With Palestinian civilian casualties mounting, the Arabs are under intense pressure to get a resolution - and several diplomats said they want it before Friday prayers at mosques in the region.

"We are not going to leave without a vote today," Moussa told reporters. The key elements are the withdrawal (of Israeli forces), cease-fire, the humanitarian situation, the opening of crossings.

But France, which holds the Security Council presidency this month, might want to delay a vote until Friday, diplomats said.

Egypt and Israel hold the keys to Gaza. They at least are in agreement. "We want nothing to do with the rabble in Gaza. The longer the Philistines stay penned in the Gaza cage the better for all concerned." Egypt, like Israel is not happy with their connection to the Gazans.

How about the Gazans? What are they currently after?

In a possible sign Hamas was unwilling to compromise yet, a senior Hamas official in Syria, Mohammed Nazzal, told Syrian TV on Thursday that the group would never surrender and vowed to fight house to house against Israeli troops in Gaza.

A joint statement issued by Palestinian groups based in Syria's capital
Thursday rejected the Egyptian-French initiative, saying it would undermine Gazans' resistance and give Israel a free hand to continue aggression.

Hamas is normally a member of the coalition, but it wasn't clear if it signed the statement. Hamas officials in Syria were not available for comment. Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon who is close to the group's top leader, said he was not aware of the statement.

Hamas wants a chance to fight house to house where they do best. The Israeli response of course is to lay siege to the major cities and let hunger and thirst do their work for them. That takes a while depending on the amount of stored food and water. Which would argue for another week or two of fighting given that pumped water supplies were cut off at the start of the dust up.

The fact that one top Hamas guy was not willing to sign on to a blood and guts statement may indicate their resolve is weakening. No matter what happens though the Hamas guys can point to one statement or another and say "that was our position all along." Because Arabs never lose wars and they are always right.

Colonels Look At The Mexican Collapse

General Barry McCaffrey has called for an evaluation of his failed policies from a couple of Colonels who have visited Mexico. Michael Yon runs down the details in this [pdf]. Let me excerpt a few highlights:

Thousands are being murdered each year. Drug production, addiction, and smuggling are rampant. The struggle for power among drug cartels has resulted in chaos in the Mexican states and cities along the US-Mexico border. Drug-related assassinations and kidnappings are now common-place occurrences throughout the country.

Squad-sized units of the police and Army have been tortured, murdered, and their decapitated bodies publicly left on display. The malignancy of drug criminality now contaminates not only the 2000 miles of cross-border US communities but stretches throughout the United States in more than 295 US cities.

I really like the part about the drug criminality contaminating more that 295 US cities. However, I'd say they Colonels need to improve their observation and estimation techniques. It is every city, town, and hamlet in the US of A.

Well let us look at some more of the report and see if the Army geniuses in charge can figure out what is causing the problem.

Senior government officials are taking enormous personal risk; the drug cartels have demonstrated their willingness to murder political leaders and law enforcement officers who threaten their well being. The commitment of these senior Mexican Government officials to reestablish the rule of law will become a matter of historical pride to their nation if they succeed.

Well yes. The report fails to mention that if they fail they can get rich. Which seems to be sufficient inducement for quite a lot of them. However, success not only brings pride, it also brings death. Not an inconsiderable incentive on its own.

A failure by the Mexican political system to curtail lawlessness and violence could result of a surge of millions of refugees crossing the US border to escape the domestic misery of violence, failed economic policy, poverty, hunger, joblessness, and the mindless cruelty and injustice of a criminal state.

As opposed to the millions crossing the border now to escape violence, poverty, hunger, joblessness, cruelty and injustice.

And you know it is even worse than people think. Mexico is not faced with ordinary corrupt corruption. No siree. They are faced with something more evil than that. Narco corruption and terrorism.

Mexico is not confronting dangerous criminality--- it is fighting for survival against narco-terrorism.

Which is way different than religious terrorism and narco corruption like we see in Afghanistan.

What can we do General? What can we do to prevent this horrible narco tragedy from befalling us? Please. Please I beg you. Tell me before it is too late. What should I do?

A terrible tragedy is going to take place in the coming decade if we don’t closely ally ourselves with the courageous Mexican leadership of the Calderon Administration---- and develop a resourced strategy appropriate for the dangers we face.

Ah. A resourced strategy. That means money. Why didn't you just say so? How much? Where do you want it delivered? Unmarked small denomination bills? Yeah. That is doable.

Then the Colonels go on for a few more bullet points about the wonderful goodness of Mexico concluding with:

In sum, Mexico and its people are a joy to visit--- and a trusted partner in business cooperation. Mexican and Central American labor is a central pillar of US economic strength. However, Mexico is fundamentally at risk from drug-fueled crime which is so powerful that it could threaten the viability of the state.

Well yeah, provided you don't get killed or kidnapped by the various gangs or extorted by the police who are just attempting to make their positions pay. So how much should you pay? Well that depends on how much you have got and what you or your relatives can raise up.

Well enough of local color. What is the problem? The real problem? (watch for the magic trick - here comes the slight of hand, the palming of the card).

THE PROBLEM IS DRUGS

Why sure it is. It couldn't possibly be the laws making drugs illegal transmuting a pile of vegetables into a pile of gold. Oh. No. Don't think of laws and government and supply and demand and smuggling and black markets. That would be wrong and complicated. Can't have that. Just think of DRUGS. And remember the most important thing of all. DRUGS ARE VERY BAD. So if you see any DRUGS it would be wise to beat them about the head and shoulders with a stick. BAD DRUGS. BAD.

Mexico is on the edge of the abyss---it could become a narco-state in the coming decade. Chronic drug consumption has doubled since 2002 to 500,000 addicts. Possibly 5% or 3.5 million people consume illegal drugs. (the US figure is 8.3% or 20.4 million). Since 2002--- past month Mexican national drug consumption has increased by 30% and cocaine use has doubled. The fastest growing addiction rates are among the 12 to 17 year old population -- and the consumption rates among women have doubled.

My god. America has a 14 trillion dollar economy and about 8 1/2% take drugs. While the Mexican economy is at $1 trillion and only 5 % take illegal drugs. How do they expect to catch up with us economically when there is a severe shortage of drug takers in their society. We must help them to catch up Barry. We must.

Drug criminal behavior is the central threat to the state. Mexico probably produces 8 metric tons of heroin a year and 10,000 metric tons of marijuana. 90% of all US cocaine transits Mexico. Mexico is also the dominant source of methamphetamine production for the US market. The drug cartels have criminal earnings in excess of $25 billion per year ---and physically repatriate more than $10 billion a year in bulk cash back into Mexico from the US.

Central threat to the state? It looks more like it is central to Mexican prosperity.

The crime rate is staggering. The US State Department notes that crime in Mexico continues at high levels particularly in Mexico City. Criminal assaults occur on highways throughout Mexico. Armed street crime is a serious problem in all the major cities. Robbery and assault on passengers in taxis are frequent and violent. Mexican authorities have failed to prosecute numerous crimes committed against US citizens, including murder and kidnapping. 44% of all murders through November of this year were of unidentified victims--- primarily because of fear of becoming involved by family and acquaintances of the deceased.

But you know other than that it is a really lovely place to visit. If none of those heads without bodies or bodies without heads shows up on the plaza while you are taking a stroll.

Corruption is pervasive and ruins the trust among Mexican law enforcement institutions at local, state, and Federal level. Corruption reaches into the US Embassy with a DEA Mexican national employee recently arrested for being an agent of the Sinaloa Cartel. He was corrupted by a $450,000.00 bribe. Six high-ranking law enforcement officials have recently been arrested and the current and former Director of the Interpol Office in Mexico indicted. (This is a painful personal reminder of the 1997 arrest of the Mexican Drug Czar, General Gutierrez Rebollo, discovered to be working as an agent of the Juarez cartel.)

Say wasn't General McCaffrey an American Drug Czar? Yes he was. I wonder which cartel he is working for? The pay is good and you can legally put on holier than thou airs and the visage of a scold. What is not to like?

The Mexican people believe the justice system is corrupt and ineffective. Mexican police regularly obtain information through torture and prosecutors use this evidence in courts. The suspect is deemed guilty until proven innocent. Most ominously--- the Mexican people are losing faith in the system. At the start of the Calderon Campaign more than 87% supported the President. Now only 67% are in favor. There is increasing discussion of legalization of drugs—or acquiescence in the drug trade, which used to be presumed to be a US not Mexican problem.

Ah yes. The bane of the cartels - legalization. It would put them out of business. Can't have that. The big bribes will stop before my mortgage is paid off. A disaster. So down with legalization. Death to legalizers. We must never give up. We can win this fight. I see great progress being made. Why just yesterday after a twenty year long investigation my forces found and destroyed two kilos of the most potent pot known to man. Billions of times more powerful than anything your parents smoked. Pot like that is worth thousands of trillions of dollars. And we destroyed it all saving our kids from death, destruction, perdition, and the munchies. Can I have my money now?

The bottom line--- the drug cartels cannot defeat the government through direct violent confrontation. The Armed Forces in particular can at any point on the ground or at sea confront and dismantle a direct threat to the security forces. The most effective tool of the criminal cartels is narco-terrorism -- and corruption and intimidation of the populace to convince the political authorities to remain passive in the face of criminal behavior.

Whew it is cheaper to buy than to fight. How much are you costing them General? What is the Colonel's cut? If you don't mind my asking. Well since you put it that way I withdraw my question. Just forget I ever asked it. I want to live long and prosper. How much is in it for me?

President Calderon has charted a bold and heroic path for the state. His senior law enforcement officer – Secretary Genaro Garcia Luna – has placed his life on the line. The Federal police motto is “Ni un paso atras” (not one step back). Hundreds of law enforcement officers have been murdered. They have seized massive quantities of contraband from these criminal threat forces. (70,000 kilograms of cocaine, 3,700 tons of marijuana, $304 million dollars, 28,000 weapons, 2000 hand grenades, 3 million rounds of ammo.) President Calderon has for the first time in Mexican history boldly used the tool of extradition to the US. (83 major drug criminals sent north.)

Yep. 500,000 drug criminals in Mexico and they sent north a whole 83 of them. Not to worry. They were from a rival gang and we got their business. Profits all around. Except for the evil drug runners from that other gang who deserved it for muscling in on our territory. That'll teach them to mess with us. We bought the government first and an honest government it is. They stay bought. Or else.

The strategy articulated by Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora is to break up the four major drug cartels into 50 smaller entities and take away their firepower and huge financial resources. The senior Mexican leadership have tried to organize the ten US and Mexican Border States to form active cross-border partnerships for law enforcement and drug prevention cooperation. The Mexicans know a central piece of their strategy has to be the modernization of the Mexican justice system and the modernization of the economy.

Ah yes. Drug prevention. If we prevent drugs the drugs will no longer be a menace. And besides even (especially) if we are only partially effective prices will go up. And you know the competition is killing us. We must put a stop to it. For the children. And our profits. My wife (the bitch) wants a new car and a diamond bracelet. So it is critical to destroy those other gangs or my wife will be bitching for months. I hate that. And she knows it.

Now is the time during the opening months of a new US Administration to jointly commit to a fully resourced major partnership as political equals of the Mexican government. We must jointly and respectfully cooperate to address the broad challenges our two nations face. Specifically, we must support the Government of Mexico’s efforts to confront the ultra violent drug cartels. We must do so in ways that are acceptable to the Mexican polity and that take into account Mexican sensitivities to sovereignty. The United States Government cannot impose a solution. The political will is present in Mexico to make the tough decisions that are required to confront a severe menace to the rule of law and the authority of the Mexican state. Where our assistance can be helpful, we must provide it. The challenge is so complex that it will require sustained commitment and attention at the highest levels of our two governments. We cannot afford to fail.

We will decimate the rival gangs and bring profits back in line with my wife's demands. Peace at home requires it.

Or we could just legalize and put an end to this whole sordid farce.

BTW Barry McCaffrey is no fool. He has to know that drug prohibition is supporting these gangs and yet his prescription is to fight the drug war harder. Do you suppose he is on the take?

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Joke Of The Day 16 May 008

From Manufacturing Business Technology.

Successive EU enlargements, the Union's growing reputation as a global defence and security actor, and its continued strong economic performance have also become key reasons for India's increased interest in Europe.

Let me see. They couldn't handle the Yugoslavia problem in their own back yard. They depend on USA logistics to maintain troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. And unemployment in France and Germany has been in the 10% range for many years. Other than the value of the Euro what have they got?

North Dakota Discovery - 200 Bn Bbl Of Oil

Two hundred billion barrels of oil have been discovered in North Dakota.

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant.

In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel.

Business Week confirms the report.

A long-awaited federal report on oil that could be recovered in parts of North Dakota, Montana and two Canadian provinces is to be released this week.

The Bakken shale formation encompasses some 25,000 square miles in North Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. About two-thirds of the acreage is in western North Dakota, where the oil is trapped in a thin layer of dense rock nearly two miles beneath the surface.

Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, said the number of wells in the Bakken increased from about 300 in 2006 to 457 at the end of last year. Bismarck-based MDU Resources Group Inc. announced its first venture into the Bakken this week.

The study being released Thursday by the U.S. Geological Survey was done at the request of Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., over the past 18 months.

"Technology continues to advance," Dorgan said Monday. "This is not going to be a red light or green light about oil development in the Bakken -- clearly there already is a big green light there. But I think the question is pretty clear: How much of that oil is recoverable using today's technology?"

The First report was a quote from New Energy which often gets things wrong. I'd say the Business Week Report is more reliable.

Here is a technique for Mining Oil. I think the peak oil folks got it wrong. As usual. Capitalism beats the fear mongers. Again.

H/T Paper Tiger in the comments at Classical Values.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The Manufacturing Decline

Control Engineering asks the provocative question: is manufacturing in decline in the USA?

Boston, MA – The keynote address at Aberdeen’s first annual Manufacturing in the 21st Century Executive Summit served as a stronger wake-up call for attendees than the free coffee. During this session, best-selling author Michael Treacy highlighted the dramatic evolution of workplaces during the past several decades and asked the provocative question “does manufacturing even matter anymore?”

Well does it? The magazine has some answers.

Subsequent presenters, however, demonstrated that manufacturing in North America is not only relevant, but thriving.

Innovation is indeed the engine which keeps our factories running, and the transformation of raw production data into actionable business information is central to improving the performance, productivity and ultimately the productivity of any industrial endeavor. Case in point: the transformation highlighted by Juan Carlos Sol, special projects manager of Sigma/Q.

Sigma/Q, a leading provider of custom packaging products in North and Central America, recognized a need to improve the performance and return of multi-million dollar equipment within their plants while simultaneously decreasing operational costs. To accomplish this, however, the organization needed to transition to an automated data collection process without creating significant downtime. Once in place, the data could then be used effectively to drive continuous improvement and facilitate better decision making in real-time.

As per usual the answer is to work smarter and harder. Control Engineering agrees.

However, as the name implies, continuous improvement is a journey, not a destination. Even the most robust data is of little value unless that data is used to consistently measure the performance of the business. This point was reinforced by continuous improvement experts and co-presenters Richard Kunst, VP of continuous improvement for La-Z-Boy and Mariela Castano-Kunst, continuous improvement manager for Nestle Waters Canada.

“A few years ago, a case of our water would sell for around $12 - $15,” said Castano-Kunst. “This week, one of our customers will be selling two cases for $5. Change happens rapidly and the business must be equipped to react.”

To maintain profitability and competitive advantage, manufacturers need to continually challenge themselves to seek new ways to work smarter, better, and more cost-effectively. Processes must be both repeatable and sustainable to deliver the desired results. Methodologies, such as lean, six-sigma, 5S, and others truly can create a positive effect. However, even with data-centric programs such as these, the most critical success factor is properly engaging the workforce and getting them to embrace the changes such programs enforce as part of their day-to-day activities.

Kunst described how success at La-Z-Boy begins and ends with trusting and empowering employees, providing the audience with insights on team dynamics and how to best mobilize a workforce to improve the chance of successful results.

“Every workforce or team, regardless of industry, tends to share a similar composition,” said Kunst. “Twenty percent of your workers will be positive leaders, 20% will be negative leaders and the remaining 60% will be neutral and can shift from one camp to another. It’s critical that you focus your attentions on the positive leaders and leverage their enthusiasm to sway the 60%.”

So the real question is as always: do American's still have the competitive spirit that G. S. Patton described so well.

When you, here, everyone of you, were kids, you all admired the champion marble player, the fastest runner, the toughest boxer, the big league ball players, and the All-American football players. Americans love a winner. Americans will not tolerate a loser. Americans despise cowards. Americans play to win all of the time. I wouldn't give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That's why Americans have never lost nor will ever lose a war; for the very idea of losing is hateful to an American."

Interestingly enough manufacturing represents about the same percentage of the economy as it has for the last 50 years. So output is actually increasing to match the growth of the economy. So why all the talk of decline? In a word. Jobs. We are making more stuff than ever with fewer people. Just as the mechanical revolution eliminated farming as a mass employer, automation is in the process of eliminating manufacturing as a mass employer. So the question is - what next?

As usual there is no obvious answer. It is up to you to determine where the economy will go. Your best bet? Join the enthusiastic 20%. Figure out how you can be of service and just do it.

Panic In Iran

I think it is time to digest the results of the Israeli air raid on Syria that happened on September 6th and see how it has affected Iran. Let us start with an early report from the Guardian.

Syrian air defences opened fire on Israeli aircraft that violated Syrian airspace overnight, a Syrian military spokesman said today.

The Israeli planes broke the sound barrier and "dropped ammunition" over deserted areas of northern Syria, the official Syrian Arab news agency quoted the official as saying.

"We warn the Israeli enemy government against this flagrant aggressive act, and retain the right to respond in an appropriate way," the spokesman said.

Syria said the Israeli aircraft entered its territory through the northern border, coming from the Mediterranean and then heading east. "Air defence units confronted them and forced them to leave after they dropped some ammunition in deserted areas without causing any human or material damage," the spokesman said.

Witnesses said they heard five planes or more above the Tal al-Abiad area on Syria's border with Turkey, around 100 miles north of the Syrian city of Rakka. They said the planes then headed south.

We can see from the report that the Israeli planes covered quite a bit of Syrian territory. We also know that none of the planes were shot down. In addition there are unconfirmed reports of Israeli commandos on Syrian territory.

LONDON (Reuters) - A British newspaper said on Sunday Israeli commandos seized North Korean nuclear material in Syria to help secure U.S. approval for an Israeli air strike that destroyed a suspect weapons plant on September 6.

The Sunday Times report, citing Israeli and U.S. sources, was the latest version of an incident shrouded by contradictory accounts from officials and diplomats and by Israeli military censorship of media operating in the country, including Reuters.

As with previous such reports in foreign media, Israel's own public broadcaster led bulletins with the Sunday Times account.

Elements of the story, which did not say when the commando raid took place, coincided with what political sources in the Middle East told Reuters on September 6 and subsequently -- that an air strike reported by Syria that day was linked to a covert Israeli ground raid and that this was linked to Israeli fears its neighbor was developing "weapons of mass destruction".

About a week after the attack some North Koreans visited Syria.

ROME (AP) - A senior U.S. nuclear official said yesterday that North Koreans were in Syria and that Damascus might have had contacts with "secret suppliers" to obtain nuclear equipment.

Andrew Semmel, acting deputy assistant secretary of state for nuclear nonproliferation policy, did not identify the suppliers but said North Koreans were in the country and that he could not exclude that the network run by the disgraced Pakistan nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan might have been involved.

He said it was not known whether the contacts had produced any results. "Whether anything transpired remains to be seen," he said.

Interesting. However not only were North Koreans in Syria, but also Syrians were meeting with the North Koreans in North Korea about a week after that.

SEOUL, South Korea, Sept. 22 (AP) — North Korea’s No. 2 leader met with a Syrian delegation in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, on Saturday, the North’s media reported, amid growing international concerns about weapons technology cooperation between the countries.

Kim Yong-nam, head of the North’s rubber-stamp legislature, had “a friendly talk” with the Syrian delegation, led by Saaeed Eleia Dawood, director of the organizational department of Syria’s Baath Arab Socialist Party, the official Korean Central News Agency reported.

The Syrian official expressed satisfaction that the “friendly and cooperative ties” between the countries were growing under President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Kim Jong-il of North Korea, the news agency said.

On Friday, the Syrian official held talks with Choe Tae-bok, a senior official of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party.

Just hangin' with the homies I guess discussing the plans for the next partay.

Some people have a different idea about what might have been discussed.

On September 6, 2007, something very important may have happened in northern Syria near the Turkish border. It is believed that Israeli Air Force (IAF) F-16s and F-15s attacked a site in Syria that may have had nuclear material. What is alarming is not the increase in tensions from Syria and Israel, but the silence that exists on both sides. Complicating matters is the contention that North Korea is involved in Syrian nuclear ambitions.

There are scattered and unverifiable reports that Israel carried out a strike against a Syrian target. What exactly the target was and what was struck is not yet clear; however, something very important may have occurred, akin to the strike on Osirak in Iraq in 1981. Global Security has constructed a timeline of the events and news reports that have leaked out since the incident occurred.

An unnamed source stated four days after the incident that a pilot nuclear enrichment operation was the target of the strike. The next day, a U.S. government official stated that the target was a Syrian weapons shipment destined for Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. On September 13, 2007, Washington Post reporter Glenn Kessler wrote that "...a former Israeli official said he had been told that it was an attack against a facility capable of making unconventional weapons." On September 15th, Kessler reported that an Israeli official provided the U.S. with evidence of Syrian-North Korean cooperation on a nuclear facility.

Well, well, well. Most interesting. Most interesting indeed.

Even more interesting is the Russian connection.

Military experts conclude from the way Damascus described the episode Wednesday, Sept. 6, that the Pantsyr-S1E missiles, purchased from Russia to repel air assailants, failed to down the Israeli jets accused of penetrating northern Syrian airspace from the Mediterranean the night before.

Looks like all the old gang is back together again, eh comrades?

Evidently Iran is none too happy about the failure of the Russian eqipment to defend Syrian airspace.

September 28, 2007:
Information coming out of Iran indicates that the military there is very dismayed at how ineffective new Russian anti-aircraft systems were during the Israeli September 6th air strike on a Syrian weapons development facility near the Iraqi border. Syria and Iran have both bought billions of dollars worth of the latest Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. Apparently the Israelis were able to blind these systems electronically. Syria isn't saying anything, nor are the Israelis, but Iranian officers are complaining openly that they have been had by the Russians. The Iranians bought Russian equipment based on assurances that the gear would detect and shoot down Israeli warplanes.

Over the Summer Russia delivered the first dozen or so (of 50) Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems to Syria. It is believed that some of these systems are going to Iran, if only because Iran is apparently paying for them. Russia made the sale to Syria, despite $13.4 billion still owned for past purchases. Russia forgave most (73 percent) of the old debt, and is taking some of the balance in goods. In return, Syria is able to buy $400 million worth of anti-aircraft systems, mainly the self-propelled Pantsir-S1. This is a mobile system, each vehicle carries radar, two 30mm cannon and twelve Tunguska missiles. The missiles have a twenty kilometer range, the radar a 30 kilometer range. The missile can hit targets at up to 26,000 feet. The 30mm cannon is effective up to 10,000 feet. The vehicle carrying all this weighs 20 tons and has a crew of three.

We now come to the heart of the story. The reaction of the Iranian government and their military.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing,' he reports. 'No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?' 'When will the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic.'

And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the silence in Syria. On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr. Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal. Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not Israel's silence that 'speaks volumes' as he claims, but Syria's.

Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil? The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, 'considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology.' Syria now 'possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,' with 'more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,' some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria 'before being introduced into Russian operation service.' While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria: Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th. Nothing.

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded. Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked. Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.

I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it: scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun. It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that 'France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program.' All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that '600 Shihab-3 missiles' will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.

Now comes the speculation part. By showing that the Russian equipment can't defend Iran, American and Israeli forces have tipped their hand. Iran is probably scrambling madly with Russian assistance to fix what ever the problem was. This means that if American or Israeli forces are going to attack Iran, their attacks must come soon. Probably within the next month or two.

Cross Posted at Classical Values