The Blockade and the Prisoner Swap

I have been wondering for the last few hours why Israel is keeping up the Naval blockade of Lebanon. Carol Herman in the comments to Lebanon's Cash Flow Problems points out that the goods bound for Lebanon are going through the Syrian port of Tripoli and then into Lebanon. Meaning that the graft is going to Syria not Lebanon. Why would that be in Israel's interest?

And then I read this bit of news:

Lebanon's Prime Minister Fuad Saniora said Thursday that a prisoner swap with Israel was being considered by his government but "nothing has materialized."

Fuad Saniora said Lebanon was "continuing the contacts" with Israel about a possible swap in which two Israeli soldiers would be released in exchange for all Lebanese detainees in Israeli prisons.

So maybe this is Israel's way of putting a lot of pressure on the Lebanese Government which is controlled by the March 14th Movement which is opposed to Syria and Hizballah. If Israel can get this done in the next month or two it will be a severe blow to the prestiege of Hizballah. Of course he is not going to get all the Lebanese prisoners (all four of them). One fellow (Samir Kuntar) who smashed the skull of a four year old with the butt of a rifle after making her watch her father being shot to death is definitely not going back. However, consider this as Saniora's opening bid. He will settle for less.

Saniora said Lebanon was interested in seeing the return of all detainees, "in other words the abducted soldiers as well as the Lebanese detainees that have been in Israeli prisons for over 28 years."

"I hope the Israeli government will respond to the call of reason so that we can finish with this and everybody will return to his home," he said.

Its the blockade. Lebanon survived for 20 years with others in control of south Lebanon. So it is unlikely that the Israeli troops there are a problem.

Israeli military officials have said Israel is holding 13 Hizbullah prisoners and the bodies of dozens of guerrillas that it could swap for the two captive soldiers.

Earlier, a senior Israeli political official said that Israel would agree to conduct negotiations over the release of the soldiers kidnapped by Hizbullah, if they were handed over to the Lebanese government.

The official told Army Radio that if the talks are conducted with the Beirut leadership the move will not be perceived as a reward for Hizbullah.

The reward for Hizballah? Forcing Israel into direct indirect negotiations. i.e. you have to deal with us on our terms but only through third parties because we do not recognize your right to exist.

The proposal will be submitted to Nasralla's associates and the Lebanese government via UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Veteran civil rights leader Reverend Jesse Jackson who are visiting the region.

Jackson reiterated his claim on Thursday that the three kidnapped soldiers, captured by Hizbullah and Hamas, were alive.

Kofi and Jesse. What a pair. My guess is that they are doing their usual. When the Arabs need to publicly accept some political or war time defeat they call Jesse to do the job. I think this news increases the probability of the soldiers return.

Update: 01 Sept '06 0655z

Free Samir Kuntar?

CNSNews.com) - The Arab prisoner that Hizballah wants Israel to release in exchange for two abducted Israeli soldiers, is serving multiple life sentences for killing a four-year-old girl with a rifle butt.

Samir Kuntar is one of only two or three Lebanese prisoners still held by Israel, and Hizballah said its July 12 assault is aimed at winning his freedom.

The mother of Einat and Yael speaks:

As police began to arrive, the terrorists took Danny and Einat down to the beach. There, according to eyewitnesses, one of them shot Danny in front of Einat so that his death would be the last sight she would ever see. Then he smashed my little girl's skull in against a rock with his rifle butt. That terrorist was Samir Kuntar.

By the time we were rescued from the crawl space, hours later, Yael, too, was dead. In trying to save all our lives, I had smothered her.

I do not think Samir will be part of any exchange until he dies. Maybe not even then.


Update: 01 Sept '06 1031z

Corrected text so the stories of murder by Samir agree.


Update: 01 Sept '06 1427z

Captain's Quarter's discusses Assad's promise not to re-arm Hizballah.

Lebanon's Cash Flow Problems

Beirut to the Beltway is discussing the Lebanese economy post war. Before the war an economic plan was presented by Prime Minister Siniora which was vigorously resisted by Hizballah and its allies in the government.

One of the main proposals fought by Hizbullah and co concerned public sector workers. The finance minister at the time proposed then quickly withdrew an idea aimed at reducing public expenditures by hiring public sector employees on a contractual basis. Hizbullah and Aoun both strongly opposed this idea, and threatened "street revolutions."

Well, fast forward to the present. The Daily Star is now reporting that the finance ministry has "enough cash to cover salaries of public sector staff for a few more weeks, adding the ministry has spent $1.5 billion since war broke out."

So what are the odds that these fixed expense government workers are supporters of the Hizballah faction of government?

The Central Bank has reportedly intervened with $2.5 billion dollars (at least 2% of total deposits) to stabilize the pound, and the ongoing blockade is costing the treasury hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenues from VAT and customs duties,usually collected at the Beirut port. (According to the finance minister Jihad Anzour, the 34-day war caused more than $3.6 billion in material damage and another $3 billion in indirect losses, especially in the tourism sector.)

B2Bw (Beirut to the Beltway) then quotes frm a Reuters report.

Thousands of shipping containers filled with vital imports have been turned away from Beirut Port by the Israeli blockade, causing commercial cargo bound for Lebanon to flow through Syrian ports. Containers destined for Lebanon have started arriving over the last few weeks at the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartous, where they are being loaded onto trucks and moved to Lebanon on roads bombed by Israel in the recent war, port officials told Reuters.

This total blockade is designed to prevent arms smuggling and encourage the UN to get its forces deployed as soon as possible.

Then B2Bw delivers some more really bad news for the Lebanese economy.

The industrial, tourism and hospitality sectors were hit hard. The factories that were not destroyed by Israel are now operating at a 20% capacity. Many restaurants had to lay off their seasonal workers.

Of course this is going to affect employment adversely. B2Bw gives some estimates.

Then he quotes economist Marwan Iskandar:

"An economic rebound will allow 80 percent of lost jobs to be recovered if political stability is assured and a public aid program is enacted," he said.

And gives his acid observations about the requirements.

Political stability? Tell that to Aoun and Nasrallah. They didn't want it before the war, and they don't want it now. With Siniora overbidding Hizbullah by offering a $33,000 $40,000 compensation package to families who lost their homes, it almost seems as if Lebanese people will be paying Hizbullah and Aoun for co-destroying the country along with Israel.

That is very interesting. Hizballah's initial offer of $12,000 was a low ball. Assuming 15,000 homeless families $33,000 comes to $500 million (about). A $400,000 offer bumps that $100 million.

Evidently human shields are worth a lot to Hizballah, because the hizzies will determine where houses are built if they pony up the cash. Like on top of bunkers and arms depots. So I do not think B2Bw has that point entirely correct.

If the government (probably with Saudi help) outbids Hizballah the hizzies will be out of business in south Lebanon.

Also note that the people of Iran are livid about the $500 million offer when a lot of Iran still hasn't been rebuilt from the last earthquake.

B2Bw has links. Visit him to learn more.


Update: 31 Aug '06 1902z

Commenter Carol Herman reminds me ever so gently that the proper abreviation of Beirut to the Beltway is B2Bw. So that has been changed.

Strangled by Socialism

Socialism strangles. I just ran across two interesting illustrations of that in the news. The first is from Germany.

Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Thomas Koerber, an engineering technician from Viernheim, Germany, was looking for a new job. He found it -- 4,700 miles away, in Canada.

"I looked around, found a job I liked in Canada, and left Germany within two months," Koerber, 39, said in a telephone interview from Calgary. "If I can get a better job abroad, and if I'm being treated better, I'm gone."

Koerber is one of 145,000 Germans who fled the fatherland last year amid record postwar unemployment, pushing emigration to its highest level since 1954, Federal Statistics Office figures show. Last year was also the first since the late 1960s that emigrants outnumbered Germans returning home from living abroad, the statistics office said.

Note that for the last few years the world economy has been booming, despite the on going wars and terrorist threats. Yet the German economy faces record unemployment in the number of unemployed with an unemployment rate od 8.2%.

"People say things aren't getting better in Germany, and nothing's going to change any time soon," said historian Simone Eick, director of the German Emigration Center in the northern port city of Bremerhaven. Indeed, "some indicators suggest that this may be the start of mass emigration."

That's reflected by the 630 postings recorded since Aug. 10 on an Internet forum on emigration hosted by Germany's Spiegel magazine. Germany doesn't have much of a future, a 40 year-old German teacher who moved to France said Aug. 26 in a typical posting. The teacher, writing under the alias "Kritischer Leser," meaning Critical Reader, said he's working fewer hours and making more money than his sister, a doctor in Germany.

For Koerber, the decision to leave was largely one of taxes. In Germany, where the highest tax bracket starts at 52,152 euros ($66,600), he would have to pay 42 percent of every euro above that level. In addition, the German value-added tax -- a kind of national sales levy -- is 16 percent, which is scheduled to rise three percentage points next year.

So there you have it. High taxes are bad for workers. Why? Well there is competition.

"I only get 25 percent deducted from my salary and that includes everything," said Koerber of his pay packet in Canada. "And I'm in the highest tax bracket!" The goods and services tax in Alberta is 6 percent, cut from 7 percent in July, he said.

If America doesn't watch out we could start losing skilled workers (the highest paid workers) to Canada as well.

Germany has other problems besides high taxes. They have lots and lots of regulations.

Other German expatriates cite what they say is the over- regimentation of the labor force. "Life in Germany is totally over-regulated,'' said Christian Kaestner, 38, an attorney who moved from Munich to Cape Town, South Africa, in 1997. "There are hardly any freedoms left, and you keep bumping into regulations and prohibitions."

Every regulation adds cost and friction to the economy. Just another thing to pay attention to. Considering that attention is probably the most expensive commodity in the universe, the cost is high indeed. In fact I tell my kids that the hardest thing to pay in the world is attention.

The second story is via the Sand Monkey. He discusses what is happening to the oil industry in Bolivia since populist/communist Evo Morales got elected.

Bolivia's move to nationalize their oil reserves and make the state control it has been failing miserably, once again proving that such socialist moves never work, as I have said here before. The reasons why the program is failing? Well, where to begin? First, there is that whole thing with Brazil being mad at its assets and investments being nationalized by a neighboring country's government, to the degree that it slashed its future investments in Bolivia from 2 Billion US dollars to a measly 90 million. This of course will lead other Oil investors to follow suit, like European Repsol, which announced that it had enough of the Persecution of Bolivian authorities and will cut investment in Bolivia. More companies will surely follow suit.

Morales' response:

Bolivian President Evo Morales said yesterday in a speech
that the country never planned to throw out foreign companies or expropriate their assets “but they can't act likes bosses or owners, they need to be partners," newspaper El Pais reported today.

Geez people who own stuff acting like owners. What a surprise. Bolivian economist Hernando DeSoto says the the protection of private property for the rich and the poor is the most essential element required to bring the third world out of poverty. I discuss that and DeSoto in Property.

The Sand Monkey goes on:

Of course you can't have socialism without corruption or mismanagment, and both are present here. The Bolivian Oil minister -a political appointee by Morales- just got censured for his managment of the nationalization plan , which was his idea in the first place, and therefore resigned. And the head of the Bolivian Oil state company-also appointed by Morales- has been mired by allegation of corruption for so long that he finally quit today. Morales, of course, can't figure out what went wrong. Socialism happend dude. Maybe looking at Venezeula's state of oil production, which y'all look up to as a great example of socialism done right, might give you a hint of what is going wrong.

The Sand Monkey has hit the nail squarely on the head. The more socialism the quicker the destruction of the economy, not just mismanagement, but also corruption. He goes on to discuss the Venezeula example in more detail. Plus his text is loaded with links. RTWT.

Hat tip: Instapundit for the Germany story.

Hizballah Losing More Hardware

After a lot of bluff and bluster. After losing a lot of bunkers. Hizbollah is losing a lot of its favorite hardware.

The Lebanese army has made a major seizure of weapons in southern Lebanon, Prime Minister Fouad Saniora was quoted as saying in a French newspaper on Tuesday.

"The army has been seizing certain weapons, that is confirmed," Saniora told a group of four journalists, including Le Monde's correspondent, accompanying U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan to Beirut.

I guess the March 14th Cedar Revolution folks are serious about kicking Hizballah out of the country. Israel must have kicked their butts very severely. It is beginning to look more and more like a "no mas" moment.

"We are not the enemies of Hizbullah," he said, "but we will tolerate no armed presence, either carrying weapons or wearing uniforms."

"No area will be off limits to the army," he said, vowing that Lebanese forces would "confiscate any weapons that it finds".

"That is already what is happening in a firm but friendly way."

Le Monde's correspondent quoted "informed sources" as saying that Hizbullah was "trying to rearm as quickly as possible" and that the Lebanese army was "doing its best" to intercept shipments allegedly coming by land from Syria.(AFP)

And yet no one is disarming or bothering the Israelis who are doing most of the truce "violations". Most of the indication's I've seen so far show Hizballah withdrawing not rearming. At least for the last few days. So either the French information is out of date or the French are covering for Hizballah's retreat. Or there is the possibility that it is something else (most common suggestion is I've lost my mind - well you know a mind is a terrible thing to lose).

Hat tip (and worth a read on the subject) Beirut to Beltway


Update: 30 Aug '06 1738z

The Captain's Quarters has a different view.


Update: 01 Sept '06 1422z

Captain's Quarter's discusses Assad's promise not to re-arm Hizballah.

Non-Compliance

Kofi Annan says that Israel must stop violating the truce to prevent a resumption of the hostilities. As if Hizballah has any fight left.

Then Kofi asks - pretty please - if Israel wouldn't lift the blockade of Lebanon.

Annan also called on Israel to lift the aerial and naval blockade imposed on Lebanon since the beginning of the war. At this time, however, Israel has no intention of complying with the request.

Note in the accompaning photo that Israeli Defence Minister Peretz is grinning from ear to ear and Kofi is trying real hard to force a smile.

Hizballah Joins Cash Flow Jihad

The Jerusalem Post reports that the Bush administration is working to squeeze Hizballah's assets in addition to the damage already done by the Israelis.

The Bush administration moved on Tuesday to isolate a Lebanese organization financially for allegedly funneling money to bankroll Hizbullah's terror.

The Treasury Department's action, which covers the Islamic Resistance Support Organization, or IRSO, means any assets belonging to the group found in the United States must be frozen. Americans also are prohibited from contributing to the organization.

That is a good start.

The Hizballah guys are no slouches at fund raising. They set up their operation so you could have donated to specific projects. People always like it better if they know what their money is used for.

"Solicitation materials distributed by IRSO inform prospective donors that funds will be used to purchase sophisticated weapons and conduct operations," Treasury said. "Indeed, donors can choose from a series of projects to contribute to, including, supporting and equipping fighters and purchasing rockets and ammunition."

Isn't that special?

Well it looks like the rocket fund has been severely depleted. Not to mention the bunker fund and the well equipped fighter fund. I wonder if they have a gasoline fund for hauling what is left of their equipment out of Lebanon? Or a refugee camp fund for all the people who no longer have living accomodations? My guess it that they will just cheat and siphon the cash out of the various funds for unnamed "necessities".

Update: 30 Aug '06 0757z

Snapped Shot has more on Hizballah finances including the strong possibility that the US currency they handed out maybe counterfeit. They have some evidence and a number of opinions.

Snapped Shot is providing more updates on The Funny Money Scandal.

For those of you who may have missed other pieces in the Cash Flow Jihad series here is a partial list:

Cash Flow Jihad Strikes Hamas
Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath
Iran to Enter Cash Flow Jihad Zone
Follow the Money
Follow the Gold

Update: 31 Aug '06 0730z

Strategy Page discusses Hizballah's loss in the war and some of its economic dimensions.

Update: 01 Sept '06 0733z

Karridine has an MP3 about the Cash Flow Jihad.

Terror Attack in Frisco?

Commenter Linearthinker alerted me to this piece by Yoni the Blogger about a hit and run (automobile) attack in San Francisco (yes I know - don't call Frisco, Frisco). He lists the locations of people hurt by street intersection. Linearthinker reminds me that the neighborhood is predominately Jewish.

CBS news of San Francisco says the driver's name is Omeed Aziz Popal.

Police have identified a man who killed a pedestrian with his sport utility vehicle in Fremont before going on a hit-and-run rampage in San Francisco today as 29-year-old Omeed Aziz Popal.

San Francisco police Sgt. Neville Gittens said Popal, a Fremont resident, faces 14 counts of attempted murder and various vehicle code charges.

Popal remains at San Francisco's Richmond District station this evening and will be booked into San Francisco County Jail tonight. District attorney's office spokeswoman Debbie Mesloh said it's unlikely he will be arraigned Wednesday and may be arraigned as late as Friday.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger called the spree "a malicious and hateful act" in a statement issued this evening.

Of course murder is always hateful. I wonder what the governor is thinking? Note that none of the victims is named.

An FBI agent on his lunch break, a cyclist, a teenager and a 52-year-old woman are among Popal's 14 victims of in San Francisco, authorities said.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom said this afternoon, "The investigation is occurring as we speak. At this stage, it's an indiscriminate act with no pattern. The victims are of all ages and all races."

The mayor visited three of the more seriously hurt at San Francisco General Hospital this afternoon.

Further down in the article we find that there may be some reason other than general hatefulness for the rampage.

The youngest victim is a teenager who suffered severe lacerations and surface wounds, Newsom said. The mayor said he also spoke to an older man hospitalized with fractures. According to authorities, other victims include a 53-year-old woman who was seriously hurt and a man who was hit while riding his bicycle outside the Jewish Community Center on California Street. The cyclist was treated and released.

So Linearthinker's charachterization of the neighborhood as predominately Jewish appears correct.

So let's see if we can figure this out. Feller with "Asian" name. Predominately Jewish neighborhood. I wonder what he had in mind?

The San Jose Mercury News reports:

Relatives of a Fremont man connected to Tuesday's deadly driving rampage said he may have been distraught after returning recently from Afghanistan without his newlywed wife who iswaiting for a visa.

Omeed Aziz Popal, 29, who sources said was being held by the San Francisco police, was normally a kind and gentle person, said Hamid Nekrawesh, 43, a first cousin in Fremont.

But a recent trip to Afghanistan to participate in an arranged marriage could have caused him a lot of stress, Nekrawesh said.

``He was a very respectful, quiet, nice guy,'' Nekrawesh said. ``I've never seen him do anything violent.''

Zarghona Ramish of San Jose, who also identified herself as Popal's cousin, said he had been having strange dreams since returning a month ago from Afghanistan.

Yeah, that's it. The arranged marriage. In Afghanistan. Wouldn't want to jump to any hasty conclusions.

I do have a question. Could he be a victim of Sudden Jihad Syndrome? There appears to be a minor epidemic of the disease in America. So far, this disease appears to be flying under the radar of our news media.

Fortunately it is being covered elsewhere by Daniel Pipes, and The Jerusalem Post, and Powerline, and Gus Van Horn, and Jeff Jacoby, and what do you know The New York Sun. Search "Sudden Jihad Syndrome" for much more. Most of the articles are reprints or refer back to the piece by Daniel Pipes. Jeff Jacoby and Gus Van Horn have good commentary.


Update: 30 Aug '06 1040z

Gateway Pundit has pictures, video links, maps and lots of other information. (Hat tip: LAT who has been quite busy with the story) (Note: when I was in the Navy I spent a lot of time drinking at the Presidio which is not far from these events)

Nice Shirts

Coyote Organics sent me a very nice hemp and cotton jacket to try out. Except I haven't used it as a jacket so far. I have used it as a shirt and a wonderful shirt it is. It feels good against bare skin. No rough edges or loose threads and the label is soft and will not abrade your neck. Lots of pockets. Lots of pockets. Five pockets all together. I'm an engineer by trade and love pockets. The main pockets are generously sized. The pocket on left breast has plenty of room for pens and a velcro closure for those who are not pen fanatics. The two smaller pockets on either side of the jacket (behind the hand warming pockets) also have velcro closures. The jacket has a number of features which I have not mentioned (like loose sleeves, good ventilation, and a nice hood). You can find out about those features and see some nice pictures (look for the camel) at Coyote Organics. Keep in mind that there is also an organic cotton version available which is a little cooler. Here in the midwest with cooler nights the hemp and cotton is a bit warmer, thus better suited.

I have enjoyed the jacket immensely. However, there is one small problem which Coyote Organics is in the process of fixing. Size. I'm 6' 1 1/2" and the large jacket fits nicely. My first mate who is 5' 6" fills the large size nicely (ever so nicely). For my #1 son who is 6' 4" (don't you just hate looking up to your kids?) the large is not quite big enough.

The designer of the Coyote jackets has this to say about his dreams:

Since I want to make fabric choices that I believe are healthy, both for the customers wearing the clothes and for the people making them, I work with a very limited palette of options. This forces me to be creative, which is good, but I still want more. I want more fabrics, more blends and more options. Hemp is a crucial fabric for me because it blends with cotton well and provides a meaningful difference in feel and function.

The prospect of sourcing my hemp fabrics here in the US is exciting to me, not so much for the logistical improvements it can bring to my business, which are there, but because it will finally help to normalize the choices I want to make. More apparel companies in the US market using hemp will lead to more and better fabric choices for me, and finally to more design freedom.

I like that. It is the essence of engineering or any other kind of creativity. Making what you want from what you can get. As to normalization, I think with a major California Republican backing the change in the status of hemp, nomalization is here.

Now to the best part, Coyote Organics is offering a 10 percent discount from their already reasonable prices to readers of Power and Control.

Discounts

Fine merchandise by fine merchants. At a discount.

Coyote Organics has some very nice shirts/jackets suitable for the desert and other places. Like the American Midwest. Lots of pockets. I review them at Nice Shirts.



This page created 30 August '06 0430z
Last Updated: 30 August '06 0440z

The Fabric of Our Times

Captain's Quarters asks: "Is It Time to Legalize Hemp? And Perhaps Marijuana?". The Governator is going to have to make a decision on that question in the next few days. The Santa Cruz Sentinal says:

Farmers aren't sowing their fields with hemp seeds just yet, but a few Pajaro Valley growers, along with the county Farm Bureau, are hoping Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signs a bill that would permit farmers to grow hemp legally.

Translation: A year from now the fiber in that cool hemp sweater that you buy could come from a field in California — as opposed to Canada, China or Europe.

The bill, known as AB 1147 or the California Industrial Hemp Farming Act, is headed for the governor's desk, where it will be vetoed or signed by late September, the governor's press office said Thursday.

The Governator appears to be in no hurry to make a decision.

So why all the fuss about hemp? After all Thomas Jefferson and George Washington grew it. It was essential to the American Navy until well into the age of steam. Pretty simple really. Hemp is a cousin to that dreaded drug, marijuana. But is it the same as marijuana? Why no. The difference? The hemp crop is very low in THC and the fiber has practically none at all.

The Guardian quotes a Republican:

"Hemp bears no more resemblance to marijuana than a poodle bears to a wolf," said Tom McClintock, a Republican state senator who backed legislation that would reverse one key section of a 1937 law banning the growth of all types of the plant. "You'd die from smoke inhalation before you'd get high."

Is Tom some fringe Republican? Not at all.Tom McClintock has this to say about Tom:

During 19 years in the state legislature, and most recently as a candidate for governor in California’s historic recall election, State Senator Tom McClintock has become one of the most recognizable political leaders in California. According to every major public opinion poll during 2003 campaign, Californians consistently rated McClintock as the best-qualified and most capable candidate in the field. McClintock ended the election with higher favorable ratings than any other politician in California.

Tom is running for Lt. Governor of California this year (2006). Not fringe at all. It will be interesting to see if Arnold bucks or backs Tom.

From a review of the Guardian article at Hemp for Victory we learn about:

...the oft repeated argument that hemp fields would be an ideal place to hide pot plants, which is thrown out as a stumbling block to progress. The truth is that fibre hemp plants grow thin and tall and the bushy, short varieties of Cannabis sativa that epitomise pot would stick out immediately. Further, as hemp fields would be subject to spot testing, no pot dealer in their right mind would want the visits from law enforcement. Better to plant them in a field of herbs growing the same height and not attract attention.

Also the low THC hemp would cross polinate with the high THC marijuana lowering the quality of the marijuana.

The North American Industrial Hemp Council discusses some marijuana vs hemp myths. Here is one of many myths busted.

Myth: Feral hemp must be eradicated because it can be sold as marijuana.

Reality: Feral hemp, or ditchweed, is a remnant of the hemp once grown on more than 400,000 acres by U.S. farmers. It contains extremely low levels of THC, as low as .05 percent. It has no drug value, but does offer important environmental benefits as a nesting habitat for birds. About 99 percent of the "marijuana" being eradicated by the federal government-at great public expense-is this harmless ditchweed. Might it be that the drug enforcement agencies want to convince us that ditchweed is hemp in order to protect their large eradication budgets?

Speaking of ditch weed, it is a remnant of another government program, a war time program (1942) that was considered essential at the time: Hemp in Illinois.

The Guardian article also notes that hemp has other uses besides fiber.

California has a thriving industry in the manufacture of products made from hemp, which also includes luggage, toys, sports equipment, jewellery and rope. Energy bars are particularly popular because hemp is high in essential fatty acids, protein, Vitamin B and fibre. Until now, however, raw materials have had to be imported from Canada, where hemp cultivation was legalised in 1998.

Imagine that. Hemp in Canada. I hear that the Mounties are still busting marijuana plantations and grow ops. The Mounties must be a lot smarter than the police in America. They can tell the difference between marijuana and hemp. I expect with a little education our police could be brought up to Canadian standards in the matter.

I have looked at in more detail some of the medical uses and some of the industrial uses of hemp. If you are interested in one of the medical uses of marijuana (which is not hemp) see: PTSD and the Endocannabinoid System. The plant in all its forms is truly amazing. It would be nice to bring it back. To America.

I'd like to do my part. Coyote Organics sent me a very nice hemp and cotton jacket to try out. Except I haven't used it as a jacket so far. I have used it as a shirt and a wonderful shirt it is. It feels good against bare skin. No rough edges or loose threads and the label is soft and will not abrade your neck. Lots of pockets. Lots of pockets. Five pockets all together. I'm an engineer by trade and love pockets. The main pockets are generously sized. The pocket on left breast has plenty of room for pens and a velcro closure for those who are not pen fanatics. The two smaller pockets on either side of the jacket (behind the hand warming pockets) also have velcro closures. The jacket has a number of features which I have not mentioned (like loose sleeves, good ventilation, and a nice hood). You can find out about those features and see some nice pictures (look for the camel) at Coyote Organics. Keep in mind that there is also an organic cotton version available which is a little cooler. Here in the midwest with cooler nights the hemp and cotton is a bit warmer, thus better suited.

I have enjoyed the jacket immensely. However, there is one small problem which Coyote Organics is in the process of fixing. Size. I'm 6' 1 1/2" and the large jacket fits nicely. My first mate who is 5' 6" fills the large size nicely (ever so nicely). For my #1 son who is 6' 4" (don't you just hate looking up to your kids?) the large is not quite big enough.

The designer of the Coyote jackets has this to say about his dreams:

Since I want to make fabric choices that I believe are healthy, both for the customers wearing the clothes and for the people making them, I work with a very limited palette of options. This forces me to be creative, which is good, but I still want more. I want more fabrics, more blends and more options. Hemp is a crucial fabric for me because it blends with cotton well and provides a meaningful difference in feel and function.

The prospect of sourcing my hemp fabrics here in the US is exciting to me, not so much for the logistical improvements it can bring to my business, which are there, but because it will finally help to normalize the choices I want to make. More apparel companies in the US market using hemp will lead to more and better fabric choices for me, and finally to more design freedom.

I like that. It is the essence of engineering or any other kind of creativity. Making what you want from what you can get. As to normalization, I think with a major California Republican backing the change in the status of hemp, nomalization is here.

Now to the best part, Coyote Organics is offering a 10 percent discount from their already reasonable prices to readers of Power and Control.

Hemp in Illinois

Here is a piece I wrote in June of 2001. It is a historical note about hemp cultivation in Illinois during WW2.

==

Hemp has a very recent and interesting history in the Rockford, Illinois area.

The story starts in 1937 when marijuana was outlawed. Since American law enforcement was unable to tell the difference between hemp and marijuana hemp growing was outlawed.

Let jump forward to 1942. America is in a war with Japan and Japan has cut the US of A off from Asian hemp supplies from the Philippines and Java. Hemp was essential at that time for making naval ropes because of its long fibers, strength, and strength when wet. In addition it resisted rot and mildew making it relatively long lasting in a very harsh environment ranging from the frozen Arctic to the tropical Pacific.

The American response was to forget about hemp/marijuana prohibition and grant special licenses to mid-west farmers to grow hemp. In addition to educate and encourage farmers a film "Hemp for Victory" was made by the agriculture department to explain how important hemp was to the war effort and to encourage farmers to plant it.

Now we get closer to Rockford. A pilot plant built in Polo, Illinois in Ogle County was to serve as a center for hemp production in the surrounding area. It was expected that 42 hemp mills would be needed in the mid-west and 11 in Illinois.

The first harvest was in 1943. Because much of the machinery was untested, the hemp tangled machinery started breaking down. Production suffered and yet had to be completed before the end of harvest season. With a war on and labor at peak demand where could the Agriculture Department turn to fill its labor needs?

It turns out that Camp Grant in Rockford had quite a few German prisoners of war from the African campaign who were brought in by bus to help harvest the hemp. By January 6th of 1944 fifty-two truck loads of hemp had been brought to the hemp mill. One hundred and fifty one tons of fiber total were delivered to spinning mills on the East coast. The hemp brought a little over ninety-three dollars an acre.

By 1944 the government started closing the hemp plants because of the availability of alternate supplies from Central America and the Mediterranean region. By 1945 the Hemp for Victory Program was over.

If you would like to find out more about this story you can go to:

Polo's Hemp Mill.

Hemp for Victory video download.

Let me know if you have trouble with the Hemp for Victory video. All I have is a 28.8 dialup and haven't tested it.



Update: 29 Aug '06 2121z

The Hemp Industries Association has the latest hemp news. Today they are covering the California Hemp Bill Extensively.

Hemp Makes Wonderful Fiber

As a break from war news and related misery, I'm re-publishihing some stuff I wrote about hemp in response to the California bill on hemp growing which just passed and is awaiting the governor's signature. I'll have more about the bill later.

From July 2001.

===

Hemp the non-psychoactive cousin of marijuana makes wonderful fiber and has been cultivated for its fiber for at least 5,000 years.

It is well known for its use in rope and in canvas ( the word itself is derived from cannabis ) sails for the sailing ships that dominated the seas for many thousands of years. Hemp was so precious in America that early Colonists were required to grow it for its cordage and cloth uses. Hemp was required to maintain the lifeline between the early colonies and Britain.

George Washington and Thomas Jefferson were known to have grown hemp. As far as can be definitely determined they were only interested in fiber.

Modern uses for the fiber still include hemp twine for use in fine quality shoes and boots. New uses being researched include fiberboard for walls and laminated structural beams for building construction. The very long hemp fibers make these products especially strong compared to their wood counterparts.

Surprisingly hemp may find its way into your automobile body. In fact there is a chance it may already be in the car you drive. The use of hemp as a replacement for fiberglass is just beginning. Hemp composites are easier to recycle than fiberglass composites and due to their long fibers they may be stronger. Using hemp fibers can reduce the weight of car by as much as 40 percent and reduce the energy requirements for car manufacture as well. Hemp is sixty-five cents a pound cheaper than fiberglass and a new crop can be grown every year.

Two percent of automobile fiberglass matts, seat backs and other plastic composites had organic fiber reinforcement last year . Hemp is the dominant organic fiber in this field.

The number one problem in this field is that the DEA unlike its Canadian counterparts cannot tell the difference between hemp and marijuana. In America you need DEA approval, a fenced garden with razor wire to top the fences and 24 hour monitoring. In Canada all you need is a license. Admittedly the Canadians had a little problem with pot poachers the first year they grew a hemp crop. But soon enough the word got out that all you got from smoking hemp was a headache and the poaching all but ceased.

The Illinois legislature has twice passed bills for the study of hemp in Illinois in the hopes of getting a bill that the DEA would approve of and the Governor would sign. So far the Governor has not acted favorably on the latest hemp bill HB 3377. ( HB stands for House Bill not Hemp Bill ) The vote in the House was 72 to 43 in favor.

The Governor needs a little nudging on the hemp issue. He can be reached at: [217] 782-6830 or e-mail the Illinois Governor or you can get the full street address and other phone numbers from: State of Illinois. Click on "State Government" on the upper right. Then State Telephone Directory.

===

That was what was going on in 2001. What about 2006? Governor Blagojevich has an ambitious plan for organic liquid fuels. Illinois Energy Independence Plan. There is no mention of hemp oil which can be converted into bio-diesel or the conversion of the celulose in the stalks to alcohol. Perhaps he needs to be informed.

Now is this hemp for fuel idea economical? We have no idea. Moderate scale trials (thousands of acres for a few years) will be required in order to find the answer. So far such trials are illegal in America.

Update: 29 Aug '06 2012z

The politics of hemp.

Militias Disarmed?

Remember the Shaba Farms? One of Hizballah's grievances. Hizballah is packing up.

Hizbullah has dismantled 14 outposts on the Israel-Lebanon border near the Shaba Farms, Lebanese security sources said Monday.

Reportedly, the group evacuated the posts using trucks to carry artillery, other weapons and military equipment, while bulldozers blocked access to tunnels and bunkers.

Witnesses said that the vehicles laden with weapons and other military equipment were headed northward.

A French news agency reported that the Lebanese army had deployed troops along the border with Syria and that its soldiers had blocked routes used by weapons smugglers.

Several commenters have wondered if the Lebanese Army was serious. The test was a deployment along the Syrian border. I think we may have an answer.

But wait. More surprises in store. Lebanon demands disarmament of Palestinians.

The Lebanese government demanded from Palestinians in refugee camps in the Litani area to disarm in accordance with UN Security Council resolution 1701, senior Fatah operative in Lebanon, Monir Al-Makdah, reported on Monday morning.

Reportedly, Lebanese Prime Minister Faud Saniora made the request to Fatah representative in Lebanon Abbas Za'aki.

Al-Makdah rejected the demand in an interview with Jordanian newspaper Al-Dostur, saying that the Security Council resolution was illegal since it did not include the right of return of Palestinian refugees.

Right of return to where? Lebanon? What exactly does the right of return (no such right exists - it is a figment of the fevered Palestinian imagination) to Israel have to do with Lebanese security?

It is looking like Lebanon may get a real government courtesy of Israel.

Who would have ever suspected those UN resolutions for Lebanon, 1701 and 1559, would get enforced by the Lebanese Government?

One final question. If Hizballah won, why are they packing up? If they are politically stronger why is the admittedly weak Lebanese government pushing them around?

My guess? Iran has decided that the support of the shia in Lebanon is not worth the cost.

It may also have someting to do with US Rep. Tom Lantos' (D-Calif.) demands.

American aid to Lebanon should be held up until the country agrees to allow international forces to patrol its border with Syria, US Representative Tom Lantos of California said Sunday in Jerusalem.

Lantos, a Holocaust survivor on his 68th visit to Israel, also said he planned to file bipartisan legislation for Israel to receive reconstruction aid.

"It would be singularly unfair and inequitable in the wake of this disaster to have aid flow to one party, which basically allowed the provocation, but not to the other victims," he said. "Lebanon will get help from Europe, the Arab world and the United States. And unless the United States provides some aid to Israel, Israel will not receive aid."

Given the way these things work in the ME, I'd have to say that Uncle Sam's bankroll is bigger than Iran's. At least if you are counting bankable notes.

Update: 28 Aug '06 1559z

Here is an interesting update on bunker busting in Lebanon. It appears that the bunkers were connected by telephone wires. Which is why jamming the radios did not prevent Hizbollah from communicating. The really interesting part is news from the North Bekaa.

Lieutenant Colonel Emanuel Moreno was killed two days earlier during an elite unit operation in the town of Baalbek in the eastern sector.

According to the IDF, the operation was aimed at preventing the smuggling of arms from Iran and Syria to Hizbullah. Army sources stated that the operation's goals "have been achieved."

The army also claimed that the operation did nor constitute a violation of the ceasefire agreement, as the IDF said it reserves the right to prevent arms smuggling to the terror group.

It looks like Israel is clearing out the Bekaa Valley without much of a fight. The strategy Israel is using appears to be even better that the one I envisioned in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy. I had assumed a major battle to accomplish the purpose of disarming Hizballah and straining Syria. Here Israel is doing it without much of a fight. Hizballah must be way more seriously damaged than they are admitting.

Speaking of admissions. Nasserallah has this to say.

During the interview, Nasrallah said he did not expect a second round in the war with Israel, but in the same breath added that his organization was reserving the "right to resistance" as long as IDF soldiers continue to remain on Lebanese territory.

"I won't send calming messages to anyone," he said. Despite the remark, there was a lowering of tones compared to comments made in previous speeches, according to which his organization would continue to fight IDF soldiers, but would only cease firing Katyusha rockets at Israel in case of a ceasefire.

"The open war with Israel ended on August 14, but Israel is continuing its acts of provocations to drag us into the confrontation," said Nasrallah.

Funny thing is the "resistance" is not resisting much these days. Well Nasserallah is basically a peaceful guy and refuses to be provoked. Ya, right, whatever.

I'm still not clear on one minor point though. Who won?

More:

I couldn't resist adding this bit of humor.

"If we respond to the provocations we'll be considered the party that violated the international agreement, something which might cause a meeting around a second decision, which president Bush is working for and which is tied to the disarmament of Hizbullah. We have been restrained and we will not be provoked, especially as Resolution 1701 gives Israel the right to defend itself – something we opposed."

Yeah. A real shame. Israel has the right to defend itself.

Of course it looks like no one will disarm Hizballah. They are packing up their gear on their own for a one way trip to Syria. Next time I don't think they will get off so easy.

Nasserallah could do stand up if his current career has no future. Of course if he has no future he will not be doing stand up. He will be doing lie down.

More:

"This is our policy – to refrain from displaying weapons. If the Lebanese army notices any gunman – it is it's natural right to expropriate the weapons," said Nasrallah.

Nasrallah's comments match Israeli beliefs that Hizbullah's political stance has been harmed following the war.

He is packing up his shit and hightailing it from Dodge. The new Hizballah in Syria? Looks like it might be the old one from Lebanon. Somewhat the worse for wear.


Update: 28 Aug '06 2142z

Clayton Cramer links.

Pointing Out the Obvious

Commenter Carol Herman points out the obvious:

Israel really has no desires to be in Lebanon. Nada. Not for keeps. While now? Just a few. With plenty of cover from the bumbling UN. And, france. Not a bad outcome after you're finished making your points.

What points? That it got to be more expensive for nasrallah to kidnap two soldiers than it was worth. But nobody's gonna mention something this obvious.

Well at long last we have some one pointing out the obvious, Sheikh Naim Kassem Hizballah's deputy leader.

Sheikh Naim Kassem told Lebanon's leading An-Nahar daily that Hizbullah's "resistance" to Israel would continue, saying "justifications for ending it do not exist."

Kassem said Hizbullah was surprised by the magnitude of Israel's response to the group's capture of IDF soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser.

Hizbullah had expected Israel to respond at most with "some limited attacks" and two or three days of bombing, Kassem said.

"We were surprised by the size and strength of the Israeli reaction. We expected that the IDF would bomb areas close to the border for several days and only cause minimal damage," he said. "In the last days [of the war], the enemy exercised military hysteria... The size of the aggression was beyond our expectation."

Well, well, well, a disproportionate response. Obviously a higher price than he was willing to pay. I guess he went to the bazzar expecting a deal. He got a bigger deal than he bargained for.

And still the question is: who won?

Here is what I say:

Israel is camping on Hizballah territory. Hizballah is laying low. Nasserallah is living in basements. Olmert is enjoying the sunshine.

Israel is blowing up Hizballah bunkers these days at their leisure. Hizballah is blowing what? Smoke.

More on bunker busting:

He also mentioned that Golani forces had initiated the move to uncover the bunker after the same battalion, in an earlier operation, had discovered maps specifying certain areas where Hizbullah had planned such tunnels in south Lebanon.

The IDF blasts caused concern among nearby residents, who thought the loud explosions were rocket fire.

The IDF has continued to operate in southern Lebanon since a cease-fire was called two weeks ago, stopping weapons shipments to Hizbullah and killing several armed Hizbullah operatives who posed an immediate threat to IDF forces.

So Israel is destroying Hizballah's equipment without having to take it by force of arms. Seems like a smart strategy. And a nice immediate payoff for intel collected during the war.

Evidently Hizballah has abandoned their fortifications in order to not give them away by coming and going.

So let me lay it out, plain and simple like. The Israeli Army is still operating in Southern Lebanon. Hizbollah is not.

And the winner is............

More:

The Captain is discussing a similar quote by Nasserallah - aproximately "we wuz surprised".

The Nazis of the Middle East

Baron Bodissey at the Gates of Vienna reminds me of an important part of Middle East history that does not get near the attention it deserves. (although I covered some aspects of it here: The Palestinian Role in the Holocaust where I link the Mufti to Yasser Arafat through family connections) The Baron starts with:

Pastorius has sent a note reminding me of the excellent video from German television, “Hitler, The Mufti Of Jerusalem And Modern Islamo Nazism“. It’s about the Mufti, Muhammed Amin al-Husseini, and his collaboration with the Nazis before and during the Second World War.

If you want to learn more about Pastorius or see the video the Baron has links. I asked my mother (now 85) who lived through that period in America (her mother and father were immigrants from Romania) if she had heard of Mufti al-Husseini, her reply was offhand as if every one ought to know that history: she said "Of course."

The Berlin based headquarters of the Mufti controlled almost a world-wide net of collaborators. Sponsored by German money he extended his claws to the Middle East, as well as to other areas where Muslims lived. His main activities were:

1. Radio propaganda;
2. Espionage and fifth column activities in the Middle East;
3. Organising Muslims into military units in Axis-occupied countries; and
4. Establishing some German controlled Arab Legions and the Arab Brigade.

According to this Nationa Review article, the first Arabic versions of Mein Kampf were distributed in 1938.

The Third Reich and the Arab East, by Lukasz Hirszowicz, a Polish-born scholar, was published almost 40 years ago but remains a definitive work. It examines in careful detail how Hitler's Germany sought to woo Arabs through anti-British and anti-Jewish policies. Nazi personalities like Josef Goebbels and Baldur von Schirach of the Hitler Youth carried out goodwill tours. Various German agents financed and armed clandestine Arab fascist groups. The first Arabic translation of Mein Kampf appeared in 1938, and Hitler himself tactfully proposed to omit from it his "racial ladder" theory.

Of all the Arabs convinced of Hitler's coming triumph, none was so eager as Haj Amin al-Husseini, the grand mufti of Jerusalem and leader of the Palestinian Arabs in the Hitler years. Vincent Sheean, the Thomas L. Friedman of the day, thought that Haj Amin had "great gifts." Along the lines that "my enemy's enemy is my friend," Haj Amin converted the Palestinian cause into a local branch of Hitler's worldwide anti-Jewish persecution. Fleeing from the British, he spent the war in Berlin. A friend and admirer of Himmler's, he raised a division of Bosnian Muslims for the SS. Hitler made grandiose promises to him, but was cautious enough to add that they could be met only after victory.

Verrrrrrrrrrry Interesting. Did all this end with the death of the Nazi Empire? Why no. Nazi Jew hatred didn't end with the Nazis. It was taken up by Muslims all over the world. An updated version of Islamic Jew hatred.

....so dire are the injustices and the poverty, and so threatening is the tyranny over their heads, that many are lost in pity for themselves, and hatred of everyone else. A slew of racists, radicals, and Islamists share a frame of mind that the West is selfishly conspiring against them, with the Jews once again secretly in charge. Catering to such people since the early '60s, editions of Mein Kampf have been put out in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, and it is reported to be a bestseller in the Palestinian Authority area. It is available in London stores selling Arabic books. As its Arabic translator Luis al-Haj expresses it in his preface, "National Socialism did not die with the death of its herald. Rather, its seeds multiplied under each star."

In traditional society in the Middle East, Arabs were the masters and Jews were second-class subjects, protected though under rather demeaning conditions. European-style anti-Semitism, usually spread by missionaries and diplomats, came in during the 19th century. Zionism, another import from Europe, redefined Jews according to nationality rather than religion, and the accompanying improvement in their lowly status abruptly challenged Arab assumptions of superiority. These second-class people could surely never have done it on their own; they could only be obtaining their new power from outside — it had to be a plot. Hitler says so too in his book. He believed Zionism was "nothing but a comedy," and he could see through "this sly trick of the Jews."

So we have a resurgence of the European disease in the Islamic world. Swell. No wonder the Europeans don't want to look too closely at this. Let's get back to what the Baron has to say about the Mufti. Continuing his quote from Muftism and Nazism (the Baron has a link):

His greatest achievement was, however, the recruitment of tens of thousands of the Muslims in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania to the Waffen SS. His Arab Legions later participated in massacring tens of thousands of partisan Serbs, Jews and Gypsies. In 1943 there were 20,000 Muslims under arms in “his” division of the Waffen SS, the Handschar… Nevertheless, the Balkan adventure was only his spare-time activity because his main interest was the fight against World Jewry. In the annual protest against the Balfour Declaration, which in 1943 was staged in the large Luftwaffe hall in Berlin, the Mufti attacked the “Anglo-Saxon and Jewish conspiracy” phrase he so frequently used, and said: “The Treaty of Versailles was a disaster for the Germans as well as for the Arabs. But the Germans know how to get rid of the Jews. That which brings us close to the Germans and sets us in their camp is that up to day.”

This was the man who Arafat called "uncle".

The Baron concludes with this:

A favorite canard from Muslims (and the Left) is that “the Jews are just like the Nazis”. But the story of the Mufti is a sobering reminder — as if we needed one — that such assertions are what psychologists refer to as “projection”.

More:

The Baron has a photo of the Mufti and Himmler looking perfectly slimy shaking each other's hand.

Update: 31 Aug '06 0611z

Captain's Quarters reviews a movie Obsession about the Nazi/Islamic fascist connection.

Hizbollah Beats Israel Loses Arabs

As reality starts to intrude into the Middle East Amir Taheri in Opinion Journal (Hat Tip: Ted Belman of Israpundit) notes that Israel and the west may have lost the propaganda war but Hizbollah has lost the Arabs. Lebanese Shiit Arabs.

The way much of the Western media tells the story, Hezbollah won a great victory against Israel and the U.S., healed the Sunni-Shiite rift, and boosted the Iranian mullahs' claim to leadership of the Muslim world. Portraits of Hassan Nasrallah, the junior mullah who leads the Lebanese branch of this pan-Shiite movement, have adorned magazine covers in the West, hammering in the message that this child of the Khomeinist revolution is the new hero of the mythical "Arab Street."

He notes this is fueled by a gullible western media (who would have guessed?) and a propaganda campaign from Iran/Hizbollah.

By controlling the flow of information from Lebanon throughout the conflict, and help from all those who disagree with U.S. policies for different reasons, Hezbollah may have won the information war in the West. In Lebanon, the Middle East and the broader Muslim space, however, the picture is rather different.

Which is what I have been saying for a while. Aftermath.

Initially Hezbollah had hesitated between declaring victory and going into mourning for its "martyrs." The latter course would have been more in harmony with Shiite traditions centered on the cult of Imam Hussain's martyrdom in 680 A.D. Some members of Hezbollah wished to play the martyrdom card so that they could accuse Israel, and through it the U.S., of war crimes. They knew that it was easier for Shiites, brought up in a culture of eternal victimhood, to cry over an imagined calamity than laugh in the joy of a claimed victory.

Politically, however, Hezbollah had to declare victory for a simple reason: It had to pretend that the death and desolation it had provoked had been worth it. A claim of victory was Hezbollah's shield against criticism of a strategy that had led Lebanon into war without the knowledge of its government and people. Mr. Nasrallah alluded to this in television appearances, calling on those who criticized him for having triggered the war to shut up because "a great strategic victory" had been won.

The tactic worked for a day or two. However, it did not silence the critics, who have become louder in recent days. The leaders of the March 14 movement, which has a majority in the Lebanese Parliament and government, have demanded an investigation into the circumstances that led to the war, a roundabout way of accusing Hezbollah of having provoked the tragedy. Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has made it clear that he would not allow Hezbollah to continue as a state within the state. Even Michel Aoun, a maverick Christian leader and tactical ally of Hezbollah, has called for the Shiite militia to disband.

Plus with a million Shia refugees in Lebanon people are bound to talk. Cell phones and internet. Revolutionary tools.

Mr. Nasrallah followed his claim of victory with what is known as the "Green Flood"(Al-sayl al-akhdhar). This refers to the massive amounts of crisp U.S. dollar notes that Hezbollah is distributing among Shiites in Beirut and the south. The dollars from Iran are ferried to Beirut via Syria and distributed through networks of militants. Anyone who can prove that his home was damaged in the war receives $12,000, a tidy sum in wartorn Lebanon.

The Green Flood has been unleashed to silence criticism of Mr. Nasrallah and his masters in Tehran. But the trick does not seem to be working. "If Hezbollah won a victory, it was a Pyrrhic one," says Walid Abi-Mershed, a leading Lebanese columnist. "They made Lebanon pay too high a price--for which they must be held accountable."

Note that Mr. Nasrallah is handing out good old American greenbacks (which may be counterfiet), not Euros, or Syrian currency, or Iranian currency. It must be humiliating to have to hand out your opponents currency to your supporters.

As I pointed out in The Bitter Taste of Victory: A few more Hizballah victories like this one and Hizballah will be out of business. A few more Israeli losses like the one they suffered in Lebanon and they will control all of Lebanon. Some victory. Some loss.

Hezbollah is also criticized from within the Lebanese Shiite community, which accounts for some 40% of the population. Sayyed Ali al-Amin, the grand old man of Lebanese Shiism, has broken years of silence to criticize Hezbollah for provoking the war, and called for its disarmament. In an interview granted to the Beirut An-Nahar, he rejected the claim that Hezbollah represented the whole of the Shiite community. "I don't believe Hezbollah asked the Shiite community what they thought about [starting the] war," Mr. al-Amin said. "The fact that the masses [of Shiites] fled from the south is proof that they rejected the war. The Shiite community never gave anyone the right to wage war in its name."

And you thought the Long Knives were out in Israel. Hizballah's declaration of victory may come back to hurt them seriously in the Arab world where truth is starting to pierce the fog and in an Israel burning for revenge for having "lost" the war.

There were even sharper attacks. Mona Fayed, a prominent Shiite academic in Beirut, wrote an article also published by An-Nahar last week. She asks: Who is a Shiite in Lebanon today? She provides a sarcastic answer: A Shiite is he who takes his instructions from Iran, terrorizes fellow believers into silence, and leads the nation into catastrophe without consulting anyone. Another academic, Zubair Abboud, writing in Elaph, a popular Arabic-language online newspaper, attacks Hezbollah as "one of the worst things to happen to Arabs in a long time." He accuses Mr. Nasrallah of risking Lebanon's existence in the service of Iran's regional ambitions.

Before he provoked the war, Mr. Nasrallah faced growing criticism not only from the Shiite community, but also from within Hezbollah. Some in the political wing expressed dissatisfaction with his overreliance on the movement's military and security apparatus. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they described Mr. Nasrallah's style as "Stalinist" and pointed to the fact that the party's leadership council (shura) has not held a full session in five years. Mr. Nasrallah took all the major decisions after clearing them with his Iranian and Syrian contacts, and made sure that, on official visits to Tehran, he alone would meet Iran's "Supreme Guide," Ali Khamenei.

At least they didn't call him a "Hitlerite" which would have been closer to the mark.

The list of names of those who never endorsed Hezbollah, or who broke with it after its Iranian connections became too apparent, reads like a Who's Who of Lebanese Shiism. It includes, apart from the al-Amins, families such as the al-As'ad, the Osseiran, the al-Khalil, the Hamadah, the Murtadha, the Sharafeddin, the Fadhlallah, the Mussawis, the Hussainis, the Shamsuddin and the Ata'allahs.

Far from representing the Lebanese national consensus, Hezbollah is a sectarian group backed by a militia that is trained, armed and controlled by Iran. In the words of Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the Iranian daily Kayhan, "Hezbollah is 'Iran in Lebanon.' " In the 2004 municipal elections, Hezbollah won some 40% of the votes in the Shiite areas, the rest going to its rival Amal (Hope) movement and independent candidates. In last year's general election, Hezbollah won only 12 of the 27 seats allocated to Shiites in the 128-seat National Assembly--despite making alliances with Christian and Druze parties and spending vast sums of Iranian money to buy votes.

Hezbollah's position is no more secure in the broader Arab world, where it is seen as an Iranian tool rather than as the vanguard of a new Nahdha (Awakening), as the Western media claim. To be sure, it is still powerful because it has guns, money and support from Iran, Syria and Hate America International Inc. But the list of prominent Arab writers, both Shiite and Sunni, who have exposed Hezbollah for what it is--a Khomeinist Trojan horse--would be too long for a single article. They are beginning to lift the veil and reveal what really happened in Lebanon.

Having lost more than 500 of its fighters, and with almost all of its medium-range missiles destroyed, Hezbollah may find it hard to sustain its claim of victory. "Hezbollah won the propaganda war because many in the West wanted it to win as a means of settling score with the United States," says Egyptian columnist Ali al-Ibrahim. "But the Arabs have become wise enough to know TV victory from real victory."

If only Americans, Europeans, and Israelis were so wise.

At some point the disparities between TV and reality will become too great. That is when one of two things happen. World views collapse or insanity sets in.

Iran to Enter Cash Flow Jihad Zone

John Bolton American Ambassador to the UN promises to institute sanctions on Iran with or without the help of the UN (i.e. Russia and China ). Note: the imposition of sanctions (which used to be called a blockade) is an act of war.

WASHINGTON-VIDEO: Even after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated the Iranian heavy-water reactor Saturday, the US will have a hard time convincing Russia and China to support sanctions in the Security Council. Official sources in Bush's cabinet said to newspaper Los Angeles Times that if these efforts fail, the US will try to build an independent coalition to impose sanctions on Tehran.

According to the newspaper's headline report, the countries that will participate in a coalition against Iran will freeze assets and will impose sanctions on commerce with Iran. This upcoming Thursday the ultimatum put forth by the UN to Tehran to halt uranium enrichment within the framework of UN Resolution 1696 will expire.

The US believes that Japan and the European trio - Germany, France, and Britain – will provide the base for international rallying outside the Security Council in the case that Russia and China block the sanctions.

Bolton is trying to get the banks of the world to do to Iran what they did to Hamas. Stop dealing with them.

Bolton clarified in the interview that the US would focus efforts to pressure Japanese and European banks to stop doing business with Iran. This is a hint that the US Treasury Department is holding talks with other countries, which Bolton refused to identify. The Treasury Department reported that they are already seeing the fruits of this effort, including a decision by Switzerland's Union Bank to cut off relations with Iran.

Iran of course expected this which is why it withdrew $30 to $35 bn in cash and gold from European banks. However,the money will only last so long. Plus it is hard and expensive to move cash around. It is why International Banking was invented. Iran will become dependent on the banking systems of Russia and China. It can't be a happy thought for them. Control of the transmission of bits is the high ground in this war.

Iran is having money troubles. Hamas is having money troubles. Hizbollah is having money troubles. I think I detect a pattern here.


Update: 27 Aug '06 2328z

Captain's Quarters is of the opinion Hizballah lost.

Stalked by Long Knives

Reader and commenter Linearthinker alerted me to this hatchet job on Olmert in the American Thinker. In a way he deserves it. He promised the Israeli people a strategic victory. And he may have actually delivered such a victory; it was not the strategic victory the Israeli people imagined - that is his problem.

At the bottom of this page there are links to a group of articles that outline what I think Israeli objectives were given what we know now (early days) about what happened.

Let me start off with the short version.

1. A punitive expedition
2. A reconnaissance in force to collect intel and operational data
3. To create a logistics disaster for Hizballah to drain cash and prestiege from Iran.
4. See how the Israeli people stood up to rocket attacks
5. Spoiling Iran's 22 August attack
6. Shakedown for the armed forces
7. Live fire exercises for the troops
8. Destroy Iran's rocket deterance by reducing fear

All this was accomplished. Several of them could be considered strategic defeats for Hizballah. Items 3, 5, and 8 especially.

However, there are a lot of complaints. The defeat was not as severe as it could have been. Hizballah, though busy trying to care for 1 milliion refugees, still exists. Assad still stands in Damascus and the mullahs in Iran still control their government. The bottom line here is that the strategic victory the Israelis imagined (me too! Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy) did not materialize.

Let us take a look at some of the complaints the American thinker has:

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert must go. He is endangering the security of Israel and he now poses a serious liability to American security as well. Good leadership is indivisible – Olmert cannot be bad for Israel and simultaneously be good for America.

This is true. Except that the intel bonanza (covered here Electronic Warfare and here Jabbing) is very good for America to know for any coming confrontation with Iran.

Then they cover this statement Olmert made a year ago.

“We are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies, we want to be able to live in an entirely different environment of relations with our enemies.”

Israel is engaged in a thousand year war and after only 60 years Olmert is tired. Feh.

Then the American Thinker brings up the support Olmert gets from his family.

His own family members are all politically on the far left. His wife joined with Israeli leftists to harass Israeli soldiers guarding their country at border checkpoints. His daughter accused the Israeli Chief of Staff of being a murderer. One son is a draft dodger and the other son, after serving, now discourages other Israelis from serving. In a family interview on PBS’ Frontline program Olmert said that his family had influenced him to alter his views to be closer to theirs.

Leftists - they are the bane of sane governments - I discuss why in Socialism Kills. Why is he listening to these folks? He either needs to divorce his family or the Israeli people. He can't stay married to both and deliver the leadership the Israeli people demand.

Ariel Sharon pledged no more withdrawals after the Gaza expulsion until there is a genuine change in Arab attitudes. Olmert claimed that Sharon, now comatose, wanted to proceed with unilateral withdrawals and he, Olmert, intends to expel up to 80,000 from the West Bank in return for nothing.

I thought the Sharon Plan would destroy the Israeli left (it has) and would clarify the war with the Palestinians (it has). However, there is no political will in Israel for further unilateral withdrawals. Why would he even want to float a trial baloon for something that has no popular mandate?

His proposed West Bank withdrawal would inflict immense suffering and costs in expelling some 80,000 Jews and require a huge military effort. This would then expose Tel Aviv and the major population centers to rocket attack from only 10 miles away, making defense impossible and mass casualties certain. The densely populated coastal plain would be highly vulnerable to saturation attack by Katyusha rockets from the West Bank, weapons which are easy to launch, impossible to intercept and hard to defend against. Every sane observer, inside and outside of Israel, called this proposal suicidal. And yet Olmert remained adamant on pursuing this insane policy.

Militarlily and politically the idea is nuts. Olmert ran on a platform of returning territory just to get rid of Israeli responsibility for the Arabs living there. The people of Israel changed their minds about this. Olmert is sticking with his electoral platform. Makes no sense.

Olmert rushed to accept a lopsided U.N. cease fire resolution, harmful to Israel, in order to extricate himself from his failing war effort. The resolution failed to obtain the release of the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers, failed to assure the disarmament and removal of Hezb’allah terrorists, and failed to assure the prompt insertion of outside troops with the ability and mission to disarm Hezb’allah by force if necessary.

At this writing, Hezb’allah is rapidly rearming and reconstituting itself in violation of the U.N. cease fire resolution. After only one such Israeli action Olmert then refused to order his air force to continue bombing these illegal arms shipments, despite a green light from the Bush Administration. This additional Olmert insanity, combined with the feeble U.N. Resolution 1701, will insure that the next war will begin sooner rather than later.

This is not such a bad thing. Israel can fix the systems that are broken and go in to the next battle in better shape than it went in to the last one politically and militarily. If the UN and/or the Lebanese Army does not enforce UNSCR 1559 and 1701 then they will have no complaints (it will invent them) about Israel doing the their job for them.

Olmert’s conduct of the war showed that he was an incompetent amateur given to unsubstantiated boasting which revealed his lack of honesty and credibility. His choice of Defense Minister was also a disaster. Amir Peretz, has no defense experience and even admitted knowing nothing about Hezb’allah’s fortifications. Olmert is trying to avoid an independent investigation of his conduct of the war – anything to retain power and evade responsibility.

I agree about the "unsubstantiated boasting" point. I think it was a case of his word's not matching the imagination of the Israelis. He is a politician. He should be able to explain things in a way that confuses his enemies and comforts his friends. This he did not do. I think Defense Minister Putz wanted to be defence minister because of the possibility of steering contracts to his friends. Fighting a war was the last thing on his mind.

I think Olmert has to go. Not because on balance he didn't do what needed to be done, but because he and his ministers have lost the confidence of the Israeli people.

Update: 27 Aug '06 0018z

Commenter Adam notes that Lebanon is under a UN sanctioned Israeli arms blockade. I might also note that the German ships which are supposed to replace the Israeli ships also wish to enforce the blockade.


Update: 27 Aug '06 0418z

Captain's Quarters discusses Olmerts prospects.

Some Heavy News

Iran is making progress with a heavy water moderated nuclear plant.

TEHRAN (Reuters) -
Iran has completed a new phase in its Arak heavy-water reactor plant, a presidential official said on Saturday, referring to part of Iran's atomic program which the West fears is aimed at producing bombs.

The official said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would give a speech later in the day "announcing that the heavy-water project has become operational."

Iran is building a heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak, 120 miles southwest of the capital Tehran. The plant's plutonium by-product could be used to make atomic warheads.

Heavy water is water made with heavy hydrogen. Normal hydrogen has one proton in its nucleus. Heavy hydrogen has one proton and one neutron.

In a nuclear reactor a moderator slows down neutrons to make them easier for U235 and U238 to capture. When the U235 captures a neutron it fissions releasing energy. U238 when it captures a neutron converts to U239 which changes to Pu239 by emitting an electron. Pu239 in high enough concentration is bomb making material. It also represents 30% of the active fuel in an operating reactor.

Now why use heavy water instead of normal water which is used in most US reactors? Normal or light water reactors require enriched uranium to produce enough neutrons to function. Heavy water absorbs 600 times fewer neutrons per collision than light water. Although normal water doesn't absorb many neutrons it is still enough to require enriched fuel. A heavy water plant can operate on natural uranium containing only .7% U235.

This University of California, Berkeley site has the basics about the different reactor designs.

The advantage of a heavy water plant for Iran is that it can save its enriched uranium for a U235 type bomb. Also plutonium production is not dependent on the enrichment program so the two programs can be run in parallel.

Update: 26 Aug '06 2228z

Captain's Quarters discusses the issue at greater length with more politics and fewer technical details. Comes to similar conclusion.

Mistakes Were Made

A former Israeli general says mistakes were made.

Israel should seek to deal with Iran and Syria, "Hizbullah's parents," instead of chasing "the child who's throwing stones," a former Israel Defense Forces general said on Friday.

Speaking at a conference about the war in Lebanon entitled Thoughts after the War, former head of military intelligence Uri Saguy criticized the lack of a broader vision among Israeli leaders in handling the war and said that failures in the army's organizational and operational capacities need to be addressed urgently.

This is exactly the broad vision I expected when I wrote:Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy and Syria Has a Problem and Tactical Moves

He particularly slammed the government's orders to the army to capture the territory south of the Litani River 48 hours ahead of the ceasefire as useless and costly in terms of the heavy casualties sustained by the forces.

Not useless at all. It forced the UN to commit to policing all of Southern Lebanon rather than just a few km from the border. A moral victory if not an actual one. It also showed the Arabs that the Israeli army could still, after 20 years of rust, execute a time limited dash. That has deterrant value. Badly lead, poorly equipped, barely supported logistically the Israeli Army could still do the Patton thing. Think of how much better they will be as they get their problems fixed.

He also linked the IDF's deficiencies to the fact that it for the last six years it has been "busy with other things," namely the fight against Palestinian terror groups in Gaza and the West Bank.

Asked about the conflict with the Palestinians, he said a solution is possible through talks, citing that the conflict is "territorial and not cultural."

I think he is mistaken. At this time there is no territorial solution that will satisfy the Palestinians. Here is the problem:

Hizbollah and Hamas have constructed core ideologies based upon this Islamic theology of Jew hatred, which one can glean readily from their foundational documents, and subsequent pronouncements, made ad nauseum. Hamas further demonstrates openly its adherence to a central motif of Jew-hatred in Muslim eschatology—Article 7 of the Hamas Charter concludes with a verbatim reiteration of the apocalyptic hadith alluded to earlier:

“The Last Hour would not come unless the Muslims will fight against the Jews and the Muslims would kill them until the Jews would hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and a stone or a tree would say: `Muslim, or the servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me; come and kill him’; but the tree Gharkad would not say, for it is the tree of the Jews.” (Sahih Muslim, Book 40, Number 6985).

Apocalyptic Muslim Jew-hatred.

This is cultural all the way. Those who espouse this culture must either change their minds or be destroyed.

What Israel did was an opening gambit in the war, not a full fledged battle. More like a punitive expedition or a reconnaissance in force. I'm coming more and more to the conclusion that the Israeli public goaded Olmert into more of a war than he needed or desired to meet his politico-military objectives. This is always the great problem in democracies. They will bear a lot. However, once they feel the peace is broken, nothing but unconditional surrender of the enemy will do.

I looked at what Israeli objectives might have been given what they actually did at: The Bitter Taste of Victory and Deception and Intel Bonanza and Jabbing and Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath.

Trust the Rust

Zombie has an expose' on the "Israel targets ambulances" story. The key is the rust.

Hat tip: Michele Malkin

Power Sharing

The Jerusalem Post reports that Syria is no longer sharing power with Lebanon.

ASSOCIATED PRESS BEIRUT - Syria has cited technical problems for its decision to cut power supplies to Lebanon, which was already suffering from severe electricity rationing after the outbreak of hostilities last month, Syrian and Lebanese officials said Friday.

The Syrian office for the production and transport of electricity had informed the state-run Lebanese electricity company that "it cannot ensure supplies anymore," because of technical problems with its own power grid.

Now suppose Israel offered to share electrical power with the Lebanese? That could change the balance of power in the Middle East.

The Bitter Taste of Victory

Michael Young of the newspaper Daily Star in Lebanon has a piece in Reason Magazine about the great Hizbollah victory in Lebanon.

Hezbollah beat Israel in the latest war in Lebanon, and if you have any doubts, listen to what a certified expert on defeat, Syria's President Bashar Assad, had to say:

"We tell [Israel] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you—not your planes, or missiles, or even your nuclear bombs... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Israel."

A few more defeats like the Israelis suffered and they will control all of Lebanon. Michael quotes a few more luminaries and pundits and then gets to the heart of the matter.

Well, since it's all settled that Hezbollah has won, let's just open a six-pack of non-alcoholic beer and drink to the health of the party's secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, the Arab world's latest Che Guevara.

But what kind of victory is this that, even by Hezbollah's unexacting standards, must qualify as a major setback? In its public appraisals of the conflict, Hezbollah has ignored what Israel did to those parts of Lebanon the party cannot claim as its own. Its cries of triumph have been focused on the stubborn resistance put up by Hezbollah combatants in south Lebanon. Nothing has been heard from party leaders about the billions of dollars of losses in infrastructure; about the immediate losses to businesses that will be translated into higher unemployment; about the long-term opportunity costs of the fighting; about the impact that political instability will have (indeed has already had) on public confidence and on youth emigration; and about the general collapse in morale that Lebanon faces.

I think Hizballah would count those results as positive if their ultimate ambition was to turn Lebanon into a Hizballah controlled state. The losses to Lebanon are not a serious concern to them if those losses advance their goal.

Then Michael goes into what Hizballah has lost.

Take the rationale for Hezbollah's rockets. For some time it has been obvious that the weapons, estimated to number between 10,000 and 15,000, were mainly there to help deter an American or Israeli attack against Iran's nuclear facilities. Nor did the Iranians distinguish between aggressors. Last May, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Rear Adm. Muhammad-Ebrahim Dehqani stated, "We have announced that wherever America does something evil, the first place that we target will be Israel." He didn't mention Hezbollah or Lebanon, but it didn't take much discernment to see that Iranian retaliation would at least partly come from across Israel's northern border.

Deterance is based on fear. Did the rockets create more fear in Israel causing the Israelis to beg for a cease fire? Just the opposite. They were demanding that the Army take Lebanon up to the Litani and the Bekaa Valley. The strongholds of Hizballah. Michael covers his reasons why the deterance is gone. His reasons focus on Lebanon.

Does that deterrence option still exist? Yes and no. Hezbollah is believed to have many more rockets in storage and its network of bunkers in south Lebanon is probably mostly intact. However, it cannot initiate a conflict without facing the political fallout of imposing new suffering on its already traumatized Shiite community. Almost a million Shiites were thrown into the streets by Israeli bombardments between July and August. Hezbollah has started distributing money to the community, but that won't pay for much of the horrendous suffering—lives lost, profitable businesses closed, self-respect gone for those without homes or livelihoods, and much else that cash handouts cannot remedy.

That I think was the crux of the war for Israel. Making Hizballah financially responsible for the shia of Lebanon. I discussed that more extensively in: Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath. I believe in that piece, I estimated the number of refugees at 100,000 to 200,000. That they number close to a million emphasizes my point. The cash drain will be larger.

Michael then discusses why it will be harder for Hizballah to start the next battle. First, the shia will resent being used as cannon fodder for Iran. Second two armies will be deployed in Southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army and the UN "Peace Keepers". They would not prevent a war. They would complicate it.

Then Michael discusses what Hizballah/Nasrallah owes Iran

Nasrallah also has accounts to settle with Iran. The regime in Tehran has not only seen its main reason for supporting Hezbollah go up in smoke in a largely futile endeavor, but must now dole out large sums of compensation money to Lebanese Shiites so the party can hold on to its base of support, even as Iran's poor complain their regime has left them by the wayside. Iran will probably pay out the money (though I've heard unconfirmed reports of delays), but of what value is this if Hezbollah cannot fire on Israel in the event of an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities? Or, to the contrary, of what value is the compensation if, by firing on Israel at Tehran's behest, Hezbollah only brings new destruction down on the heads of Shiites, who might then turn against Nasrallah?

Iran is going to lose money or prestige. Either one will be a serious blow.

Some analyses suggest Iranian officials are livid with Nasrallah for having squandered massive Iranian investment in Hezbollah. Missing from this, however, is that the party has also managed to turn the Lebanese consensus squarely against the party. Despite Saad-Ghorayeb's assertion that the balance of power will change in Lebanon, in the past week the opposite seems to have been true, as both the government and the parliamentary majority, made up of the so-called March 14 forces hostile to Syria and critical of Hezbollah, have worked to curtail any effort by Nasrallah to transform his so-called victory into political gains. Indeed, as the costs of the war are tallied, there has been a noticeable lack of enthusiasm in Lebanon to see the war as anything but a calamity. With the party itself deeply occupied with the Shiites' rehabilitation, it has not been able to reverse this mood.

The Hizballah manpower is now almost totally occupied with a task for which it is ill suited. Large scale logistics in a country with a badly broken road net. They have to supply communications, fuel, food, water, shelter, and sanitary facilities to people who are mostly used to city living (the missing areas of Beirut). All this of course costs money. However, as a terrorist organization Hizballah doesn't have access to banks. So they have to carry in cash from Iran (via Syria), which complicates their mission. Moving a lot of cash in a wild country requires a lot of armed guards. This further detracts from their available force.

So perhaps a victory it is, but in that case Hezbollah's victory is no different than most other Arab victories in recent decades: the "victory" of October 1973, where Egypt and Syria managed to cross into Israeli-held land, their land, only to be later saved from a thrashing by timely United Nations intervention; the "victory" of 1982, where Palestinian groups were ultimately expelled from West Beirut, but were proud to have stayed in the fight for three months; the Iraqi "victory" of 1991, where Saddam Hussein brought disaster on his country but still held on to power. Now we have the Hezbollah "victory" of 2006: the Israelis bumbled and blundered, but still managed to create a million refugees, to kill over 1,000 people, and to kick Lebanon's economy back several years. One dreads to imagine what Hezbollah would recognize as a military loss.

A few more Hizballah victories like this one and Hizballah will be out of business. A few more Israeli defeats like the one they suffered in Lebanon and they will control all of Lebanon. Some victory. Some defeat.

Ht tip: Instapundit

Update: 27 Aug '06 0552z

Sand Monkey discusses Michael Young.

Across the Bay discusses Michael Young.


Update: 27 Aug '06 2328z

Captain's Quarters is of the opinion Hizballah lost.

Astronomers Lose a Planet

I have lost my keys. I have lost my way. Many say I have even lost my mind. However, losing a planet seems excessive.

PRAGUE (Reuters) - Pluto was stripped of its status as a planet on Thursday when astronomers from around the world redefined it as a "dwarf planet," leaving just eight major planets in the solar system.

With one vote, toys and models of the solar system became instantly obsolete, forcing teachers and publishers to scramble to update textbooks and lessons used in classrooms for decades.

"Pluto is dead," Mike Brown of the California Institute of Technology bluntly told reporters on a teleconference.

Dead? First lost. Now killed. It hardly seems fair. A celestial giant becomes a midget with the stroke of a pen. This is going to drive the astrologers crazy.

Clyde Tombaugh, the icy rock of Pluto has traditionally been considered the ninth planet, farthest from the sun in the solar system.

However, the definition of a planet, approved after a heated debate among 2,500 scientists from the International Astronomical Union (IAU) meeting in Prague, drew a clear distinction between Pluto and the other eight planets.

The need to define what is a planet was driven by technological advances enabling astronomers to look further into space and measure more precisely the size of celestial bodies.

"This is all about the advancement of science changing our thinking as we get more information," said Richard Binzel, professor of Planetary Sciences at The Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a member of the planet definition committee.

That is the essence of science. Knowledge changes thinking. Now about Intelligent Design.

Political Problems

I was thinking out loud at Winds of Change and came up with this thought:

The #1 problem with taking out Syria is not military. It is political. What comes next?

Does Israel want to turn Syria into what we have seen for the last 3 years in Iraq?

These regimes will crumble if they can be contained long enough. Can they? I doubt it.

What the current battles in this war are showing is that military victory is easy. Political victory hard.

Syria's threat to Israel is: if you attack us or force us to attack we will lose badly. The regime will fall. Then what?

If we can foment internal revolutions in Iran and Syria, that would be much better.

More:

The political difficulty is that you lack a common culture or political philosophy around which you can unify the nation. You have a lot of fragments jockeying for power the old fashioned way. Violence. A defeated France is easy to administer. The machinery of state is in place. More difficult are the places made up of fragments held together not by common interest or culture, but at the point of a gun.

More:

How do we turn tribes into nations, relatively peacefully?

How do you get people to stop killing over points of religious dogma?

Update: 25 Aug '06 0241z

The Sand Monkey may have an answer. He looks at this report from Indonesia:

Religious leaders say some programs - like one that disclosed an alleged affair by a son of a former president and another that claimed a famous Olympic-winning athlete had an illegitimate child before marrying - are sinful because they are slanderous or exploit people's shameful secrets.

The generally moderate group, Nahdlatul Ulama, is considering issuing a fatwa against such shows - another sign, critics say, of the inroads of Islamic conservatism in the world's most populous Muslim nation, which has a tradition of moderation, tolerance and secularism.

So the answer may be Jerry Springer. Or for the slightly more refined Oprah. The Sand monkey concludes with:

I love asian muslims. They make arab muslims look Good!

You know we may be on to something here.

Deception

I have to admit that that there was a huge deception plan involved in the Lebanon Battle. However, it was not the one I described in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy and Syria Has a Problem.

The deception involved was self deception. I was decieved by the initial agressive response to the abduction of the two soldiers by Hizballah and the statements of Olmert promising a strategic victory.

It also appears that the deception on the part of the Israeli General Staff was self deception. The confusion was real not faked. Had me fooled. I couldn't believe a competent military could be so inept. Well I was right. No competent military could be so inept. They were incompetent.

I believe the cause is systemic. I outline my reasons in Socialism Kills

Update: 25 Aug '06 0051z

Here are some thoughts I posted at Winds of Change. Revised and extended.

If the attack was to spoil Iran's plans for 22 Aug and gather intel (with a side of creating economic and logistical difficulties for Hizbollah) then a missing wider strategic goal is explainable.

However, that is not how Olmert sold the war to the Israelis. So then he got caught by public expectations with a plan that was not the one the public expected. He promised a strategic victory and may have actually deliverd one. It was not the strategic victory the Israeli people expected. To lay this all out might compromise intel sources. So Olmert is stuck.

Thus - confusion in the political echelon causes confusion on the ground. All driven by public perception.

It was a strategic defeat for Iran because 22 August passed without a bang or a whimper. Based on the Turkish grounding of an Iranian resupply mission - my guess is that a conventional rocket attack with large rockets shot off from Lebanon was the Iran plan.

Looking For a Few Good Generals

Fares is looking for a few good generals to overthrow the current Syrian government and lead to a democratic secular Syria. Good luck.

Someone like Musharaf is the solution, no need for Bush to know the name. But such a general would be very useful to the region and would give Bush a symbolic victory. It would allow Israel to reopen negotiations with Syria, help stabilize Iraq, give Lebanon a breathing room, weaken radicals and extremists. We need someone to help Syria shine not be the regional trouble maker.

This change would be a welcome october surprise…and a step in the right direction. Hopefully someone is reading this…I know a lot of my Syrian friends would reject what I am hoping for but we need to be realistic. Any new face would be an improvment, we can’t afford to be in the wrong side of history.

History is full of coups by generals. Not many turn out well.

Israel is looking for a good general as well. A Chief of Staff who knows how to fight.

Israel's embattled Army chief Dan Halutz admitted for the first time on Thursday to failings during the Lebanon war amid increasing public discontent over how the 34-day offensive was handled.

"Parallel with our success, during combat we observed failures in certain areas, notably in the areas of logistics, operations and command," General Halutz wrote in a letter to the Army, having so far resisted calls for his resignation.

The General, who has also been slammed for selling shares just before the offensive began, said the mistakes needed to be examined but stopped short of calling for a state commission, the most sweeping type of inquiry.

I'd like my public failures to be reviewed in private. Wouldn't we all?

I don't think he will last. Once the shock of the war recedes some (about another week) the calls for heads to roll will get intense. Olfart, Putz, and Galoot's days in office are numbered.

My guess? A general for Prime Minister.

Uh, Oh American Intel On Iran Bad

A Y-Net report says: US misjudged Iran threat. I always thought the reports that said Iran was 5 or 10 years from making a bomb were nuts. American spy agencies need a very serious house cleaning. Joe Wilson has not served us well nor his esteemed (nth) wife.

A report published in Washington Wednesday warned that the United States underestimated the Iranian threat as a result of "significant gaps" in intelligence information collected by American spy agencies.

The report, prepared the House Intelligence Committee, presented Iran as a growing threat on the US and criticized American spy agencies for failing to properly assess Tehran's weapons programs.

The report cited "significant gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the various areas of concern about Iran" and added that "policymakers will need high-quality intelligence to prepare for any new round of negotiations," with the Islamic republic.

There is no doubt that the most vigorous negotiations possible are needed at this point. Perhaps the 82nd Airborne and the Big Red One could be assigned the task of negotiating. Throw in a Marine Division, some B52s, a few carrier air wings, special forces, and I think we have a negotiating team whose offer cannot be refused. Under any circumstances.

More Farsi-speaking staffers in intelligence agencies and stronger counter-intelligence efforts also were recommended.

The 29-page report, submitted to committee chairman Peter Hoekstra, a Michigan Republican, and senior Democrat Jane Harman of California, was accompanied by a classified document detailing the US intelligence community's shortcomings.

The report comes amid concern that Iran is aiding terrorism in Iraq and helping Hizbullah stage missile attacks on Israel from southern Lebanon .

The house report noted that besides having a likely chemical weapons development program and an offensive biological weapons program, Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.

The missiles could be integrated with nuclear weapons some time in the next decade, it said.

They still going with that decade stuff? I'd like to know what they think the probability might be in the next 6 weeks.

Lebanon Operational Review

Winds of Change has an operational review of the Lebanon battles.

It is long but it is good.

Commenter linearthinker alerted me to two pieces by Yoni the Blogger:

Battalion Commander's Anger

DANNY IS angry at the strutting Napoleonic pomposity of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz at the war's start, and at their unrealistic war goals, not least the return of our two kidnapped soldiers.

I must admit that Olmerts agressive initial action and those pompous statements combined to fool me. I didn't expect the return of the soldiers. I did expect the strategic defeat of Hizballah.

NOW IN its fourth generation, the Merkava 4 proved its mettle in the harshest tank battle of the war, fought in a precipitous gorge west of the crook of the Litani River in the central sector - the battle of Wadi Saluki.

Two of the eight Merkava 4s were knocked out of commission and their commander was mortally wounded, caught in the sights of long-range, Russian-made, Syrian-supplied, laser-beamed, self-propelled Kornet anti-tank missiles, with their lethal dual warheads that penetrate the armor and then detonate incendiary blasts within. But the reserve commander saved the day, rushing to the rescue of the other six by leading their climb up sheer slopes to the top of the gorge, an ascent few other tanks in the world could navigate. In all, four crewmen died in the battle of Saluki, a battle which was an unqualified triumph of the Merkava 4. Had those tanks been of an earlier generation, not equipped with state-of-the-art technology and active self-protection mechanisms, 50 crewmen might well have perished.

The active self-protection system refered to is the Trophy System discussed at Intel Bonanza

Shabak Head Diskin Slams Government

Y-Net reportsThat the size of the reservists' protests is growing.

“There was hesitancy all along; it felt as though the IDF brass was not utilizing the power they had in their hands,” he said. “There was no coordination between the different corps or a defined objective, nor were basic values such as human life and devotion to the mission upheld. The feeling was that we as soldiers on the ground could have acted but had our hands tied behind our backs. The top commander lost this war. Omert, Peretz and (IDF Chief of Staff Dan) Halutz must take responsibility, and we are the ones who must remind them of this.”

Yaakov Hasdai, who was a member of the Agranat Commission , which was appointed by the Israeli government to investigate the circumstances leading to the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, said at the rally “I support the call for the resignation of the top political echelon and the establishment of an inquiry commission as part of the demand for a culture of accountability in the political system.”

“I came here to tell the younger generation to rise up, protest and learn the lesson of the previous protest generation and call for a wide-scale plan to rehabilitate the country.”

However, Zvigenbaum and several others said they are not demanding an inquiry commission.

The reservists protest began with a march through Castel National Park near Jerusalem, and reservist Ofer Levin said this was not coincidental.

“This was the site of the first war-related fiasco in which Israel abandoned its injured and killed soldiers and did not send rescue teams and enforcements,” he said.

Shlomo Lev Ami, a former Etzel (The Irgun) member, said during the rally in Jerusalem ‘if we do not rise up and prepare an alternative for the rotten regime, then a new regime will be established that will be similar to the one you are toppling.

“Now is the new generation’s time – you should be a part of the next government,” he said.

Electronic Warfare

Debka reports that American Electronic Warfare (EW) experts are flocking to Israel to learn Iran/Hizbolla's electronic tricks.

The American EW experts are interested in four areas. 1. The Israeli EW systems’ failure to block Hizballah’s command and communications and the links between the Lebanese command and the Syria-based Iranian headquarters.

Knocking out command and control is a standard element in American/Israeli war plans. If it can be knocked out it gives the attackers a very big advantage.

2. How Iranian technicians helped Hizballah eavesdrop on Israel’s communications networks and mobile telephones, including Israeli soldiers’ conversations from inside Lebanon.

The most up to date mobile phone systems are supposed to encrypt all communications. Military communication networks are designed to be encrypted. Hizballah's breaking into them is a significant disadvantage for Israel/America. Breaking the codes used on such nets is supposed to be very difficult. So difficult that even if codes can be cracked over time the information becomes tactically useless.

3. How Iranian EW installed in Lebanese army coastal radar stations blocked the Barak anti-missile missiles aboard Israeli warships, allowing Hizballah to hit the Israeli corvette Hanith.

Tactically the answer to this is the destruction of all coastal radars. Which Israel did once the problem was identified. Note also the coastal commando raid which was probably done to snatch the equipment for technical evaluation.

4. Why Israeli EW was unable to jam the military systems at the Iranian embassy in Beirut, which hosted the underground war room out of which Hassan Nasrallah and his top commanders, including Imad Mughniyeh, functioned.

This may be a harder one to figure out, since what is inside the Embassy is not available for evaluation. However, it may be possible to figure this one out from captured equipment. Communications to be truly useful must be two way.

Both intelligence services underestimated the tremendous effort Iran invested in state of the art electronic warfare gadgetry designed to disable American military operations in Iraq and IDF functions in Israel and Lebanon. Israel’s electronic warfare units were taken by surprise by the sophisticated protective mechanisms attached to Hizballah’s communications networks, which were discovered to be connected by optical fibers which are not susceptible to electronic jamming.

Such networks are vulnerable to bombing once the cable routes are mapped out. Repeater stations and routers can also be bombed.

This kind of intense EW got its real start in WW2 and was called the Wizard War. Americans and Israelis are very good at this sort of thing. I'd expect that systems that can be fixed with software will be fixed in weeks. New hardware should be out in a few months.

As I have pointed out, this battle has lead to an Intel Bonanza.Electronic Warfare will not be the only beneficiary. Tactical lessons will be learned as well.

Despite all the EW advantages Hizballah had, they still couldn't keep the Israeli Army from the Litani when it decided to go.

Jabbing

Israel's war with Hizballah was kind of strange. Jab and retreat. Jab and retreat. Over and over. In larger and larger numbers until in the last 48 hours Israel's strength, mobility, was unleashed.

What kind of crazy battle is that? If it was planned, it is called a
reconnaissance in force. Its purpose is to collect intelligence and see how the enemy responds to a given type of attack or more technically, judge his capability.

Once that is assessed, lessons learned digested, units are rested, new equipment installed, software modified, and new plans are made, you go back and finish the job.

Egypt Unhappy With Olmert

Why is Egypt unhappy with Olmert? Because Olmert's supporters are floating a trial balloon suggesting Israel return the Golan to Syria. Israel wants to return land and Egypt is against it? It is a new day in the Middle East.

An Egyptian report says Olmert is desperate. I'd say.

An official Egyptian report said Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is attempting to distract from mounting domestic dissatisfaction regarding his government's management of the war in Lebanon by resorting to "radical" moves, such as calling for peace talks with Syria.

The report, an assessment sent this week to Cairo from the Egyptian embassy in Tel Aviv and obtained by WorldNetDaily, recommends a reassessment of Egyptian positions in light of Israeli overtures to Syria. It states the Egyptian embassy estimates as long as Olmert feels his government is in peril, he will take further radical moves aimed at galvanizing supporters.

The war in the Middle East is rapidly turning into a Sunni - Shia war. With America on the side of the Sunni. Mostly. Except in Iraq where we were on the side of the Shia, but now we have a more balanced attitude.

Further on in the article:

Assad declared Hizbullah's path of "resistance" achieved results during the last four weeks of fighting against Israel.

"The resistance is necessary as much as it is natural and legitimate," said the Syrian president, claiming the war in Lebanon revealed the limitations of Israel's military power.

In a WND report last week a Baath Party official said on the heels of what Syria views as a Hizbullah victory against the Jewish state, his country is forming its own Hizbullah-like guerilla organization to fight Israel in hopes of "liberating" the Golan Heights.

Hizbullah lost ground in the war. Israel took what it wanted, and Hizbullah is going to liberate what? I think Assad has been sampling too much of the products of the Bekaa these days.

The new Hizbullah styled group started forming in June.

The Baath party official told WND the new Syrian "resistance" group is calling itself the Front for the Liberation of the Golan, and is already in the process of being formed.

The official said the group currently consists of "hundreds" of Syrian volunteers, many from the Syrian border with Turkey. He said Syria held registration for volunteers to join the Front in June.

The official said most Front members will be Palestinian and not members of the Syrian army.

Now why would Syria use Palestinians for its new "army"? Typically groups such as this, which do not owe allegiance to the country but to their master's paycheck, are used to put down interal dissent.

Update: 23 Aug '06 1631z

Captain's Quarters thinks the new Syrian Hizballah type force is going to attack Israel. I think the Syrian Army has a better chance (which is to say practically none).

Cash Flow Jihad Strikes Hamas

The on going cash flow jihad against Islamic fascists (see Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath) is squeezing Hamas.

Palestinian civil servants, including teachers, announced they would launch an open-ended strike September 2, the first day of the school year, in another blow to the cash-strapped Hamas government.

More than 165,000 Palestinians are employed by the Palestinian Authority. Of those, some 80,000 will go on strike, including 40,000 teachers and 25,000 health workers, Bassem Hadaideh, spokesman of the civil servants' union, said Tuesday. More than 80,000 members of the security forces will not join the strike, he said.

The union has ties to the Fatah movement, Hamas' main political rival.

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh called the strike unacceptable, saying such acts would create more problems for the Palestinians. He called on civil servants not to heed the call for the strike.

Government workers have not received their salaries since March, when the Islamic militant Hamas took power. Israel and other Western countries have slapped debilitating sanctions on the Hamas government, demanding the group recognize Israel and renounce violence, something it has so far refused to do.

Because of the sanctions, Hamas has been unable to pay the workers in full. Since March, workers have on occasion received partial payments.
"We haven't received our salaries in six months and nothing is on the horizon, financially or politically," Hadaideh said. "We have given the government enough time to run the Palestinian Authority and provide us with our salaries, but unfortunately it has failed."

Hamas has failed. Evidently rocketing Israel does not completely satisfy.

Iran will have to strike soon in the hopes of breaking the cash flow blockade. UN sanctions over Iran's nuclear work will squeeze further.

The main theater of operations is not the military battle fields. It is the banks.

Palestinians had initially been patient, waiting to see how Hamas would overcome its financial problems. But in recent weeks, frustration has risen and Palestinians have taken to the streets in protest. On Sunday, thousands of Palestinians in Gaza demonstrated outside parliament, waving pita bread in the air as a sign of growing poverty.

As with all sieges it takes a while to use up existing stocks. After that the people get progressively more desperate.

Hamas will either change its spots (not possible) or it will go under depriving Iran of another weapon against Israel.

Update: 23 Aug '06 1629z

Captain's Quarters discusses the future of the Palestinians

Update: 24 Aug '06 1733z

The Captain looks for a Palestinian peace partner.

Israeli Dream Team

Israpundit wants to know what your dream team for the Israeli cabinent would look like.

Or you can leave comments here.

Lebanon Blockade to Continue

Israeli Prime Minister Olmert says the blockade of Lebanon will continue.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told visiting UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen on Tuesday that Israel would end its air and sea blockade of Lebanon once an enhanced UNIFIL force deploys at the Lebanese-Syrian border crossings and at the Beirut airport.

The UN (German ships) is supposed to deploy to check shipping into Lebanon so Hizbollah cannot re-arm.

It also squeezes Lebanon and to a certain extent Syria in the cash flow department. This is the American's main strategy against Iran and Syria. Squeeze them economically. See: Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath.

Olmert stressed to Roed-Larsen the importance of putting the force together and dispatching it rapidly so that it could deploy in south Lebanon and enable Israel to withdraw its troops.

According to a statement released by the Prime Minister's Office after the meeting, Olmert said that from Israel's point of view the most important part of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was the unconditional release of IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.

Israeli officials have stressed in recent days that the failure to release Goldwasser and Regev is a clear violation of the resolution.

Ah ha. A reason to restart the war.

Just a matter of time.

Update: 23 Aug. '06 1001z

Lebanon is asking for Dutch naval support

The Lebanese government has asked the Netherlands to contribute naval support to an expanded UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, the Dutch Foreign Ministry said Tuesday.

The Dutch have ruled out contributing any ground troops to the mission. Foreign Minister Ben Bot was meeting his Lebanese counterpart Fawzi Salloukh as part of a diplomatic mission Tuesday to discuss other ways the Netherlands might help, spokesman Dirk Jan Vermeij said.

Assad: UN Stay Out of Bekaa

Assad speaks:

Syrian President Bashar Assad rejected on Tuesday Israel's demands to deploy the international peacekeeping force in Lebanon along the Syrian border as well.

Speaking to a Dubai-based television station, he warned that such a presence would "harm Lebanon's autonomy" and would be considered an act of hostility.

Ha. Bashar protecting Lebanese autonomy? He is protecting his smuggling profits from the Bekaa drug trade. See: Syria Has a Problem for details.

The Syrian president also rejected talks with Israel over an agreed-upon border between the two States until Israel would relinquish the Shaba Farms on the Israeli-Syrian-Lebanese border.

Still, he noted that the possibility for peace in the Middle East was still possible, although the window of opportunity could be closed within a few weeks or months.

Interesting negotiating style. First give me the car, then we will negotiate the price.

I guess now that the war is over Syria is claiming Shaba again. Note also that Assad is predicting a resumption of hostilities in at most months.

Update: 23 Aug '06 1715z

Assad is getting hysterical.

Syria has threatened to close its border with Lebanon if UN peacekeepers are deployed along the border, Finland's foreign minister said Wednesday.

"They will close their borders for all traffic in case UN troops will be deployed along the Lebanon-Syria border," Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja said after meeting his Syrian counterpart, Walid Moallem, in Helsinki.

First off they don't want any troops on the border, but if they come Syria threatens to close the border. This is very strange. Perhaps as more news comes it it will make more sense. Any theories?

Update: 23 Aug '06 1948z

Donald Sensing at Winds of Change discusses Assad's concern for the Lebanese.

New Energy

Reader Paul is interested in alternative energy. I am too. He found a list of the top 100 energy ideas which the New Energy Congress says is based on the following criteria:

renewable, environmentally safe, affordable, credible, reliable, developed, safe, etc...

They are a little short on credible, but not totally so.

First off is who am I to judge? I did my first solar cell project in high school in '62. I qualified as a nuclear reactor operator in the US Navy. I have spent a number of years designing and testing controls for aircraft electrical power generation systems. I know a little about Fermi Levels and other stuff.

The top technology is cold fusion. The developer promises water heaters for the home. A water heater that is also a neutron source might not be the best idea. However is cold fusiion itself credible? Yes! The US Navy thinks so and is spending money on more research. I think a neutron source that could be turned off and on at the flick of a switch might have its value even if no useful heat is produced.

Number two on the list is about using electricity to turn water into hydrogen and oxygen. Supposedly his process produces 10X more hydrogen output than would be expected for a given electrical input. It is supposed to have some of the attributes of a Joe cell which collects orgones, does unspeakable things with them, and outputs hydrogen. Personally I'd rather keep my orgones for myself and power my car with whatever the local fuel station is pumping. Not credible.

Thought experiment: take one of these cells. Start it up from the grid. Use the output to feed an electrical generator. Switch the cell over to generator power. Sell the excess electricity to the power company. i.e. a complicated perpetual motion machine.

The three laws of thermodynamics:

1. You can't win
2. You can't break even
3. You can't get out of the game

More conventionally:

1. Energy can neither be created nor destroyed
2. Entropy (disorder) increases
3. Absolute zero is the lowest energy state

These all deal with thermal processes. Fire, heat, flame, etc. Chemical processes can be very efficient (storage batteries) compared to thermal ones. Surpisingly though the chemical processes are based on the above same rules. Gibbs free energy - is a good place to search.

Carnot says if you have a hot place and a cold place and a mechanism connecting them, the maximum efficiency you can get out of the mechanism is 1 - (Tc/Th). Where Tc is the temperature of the cold place and Th is the temperature of the hot place measured on a scale that starts at absolute zero. For those who want the proper metrics the scale is Kelvin and for those of a more traditional bent the scale is Rankine.

Number three is utility scale solar. Well, it is making a comeback. Some systems are getting installed in the desert. The claim to fame of this technology is a turbine design that does not use blades. Instead it uses rocket nozzles, more commonly called a venturi. And then the turbine exhaust vapor is made conductive and more energy is extracted through the magneto hydrodynamic effect (MHD).

People have been trying to get the efficiency of such turbines up for years. Blades are a real pain. Nothing doing. Despite knowledge of venturis for over 100 years. Probably another backyard inventor with bad measuring equipment. And the MHD stuff? If the inventor can do that he could forget about turbines. The Israelis are doing research on MHD systems using liquid metal as the carrier fluid.

Verdict. With solar thermal plants in the news, it looks like a growth market. Will these designers produce what they say they can? Doubtful.

Number four seems quite workable. Take the methane from a dump and use solar energy and a catalyst to produce hydrogen. The question is where does the carbon from CH4 (methane)go? If the methane could be mixed with water (H2O) you would get more hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Physically and within the bounds of well respected chemistry this is definitely possible. The question is: is it economical? Can you make a profit?

Number five is the Noble Gas Engine. It definitely deserves a prize. Most unlikely to succeed. Multiple electrodes. Hot plasma gas discharges in mixtures of noble gases. More energy out than in. 100x. The inventor was afraid people might steal his discharges and designs. So he never fully let on how he did it. But a new company is being set up to develop this long suppressed work.

Nobel Prize Winner in Physics, Richard Feynman saw it and was unable to prove it was powered by the electrical outlet it was plugged into. He unplugged it for a few minutes. The inventor got agitated and plugged it back in. The engine exploded killing a bystander.

The future of this engine? Don't stand too close.

Well there is more. I'd be really cautious.

OTOH if you are interested in real designs that are based on the known laws of physics and current manufacturing and design capabilities, contact me. I have a few ides about energy storage and other stuff.

A Concourance

Former Defence Minister of Israel, Shaul Mofaz says what I have been saying.The attack on Hizbollah disrupted Iranian plans.

"Iran's intention was to activate Hizbullah against Israel, but the IDF fighting disrupted the plan," Mofaz said. "As long as Lebanon and the international community won't act against the (Iranian) plan, we'll stand up for our right to prevent harm to Israel."

Minister Mofaz, who already visited the families of the eight rocket victims after the attack, promised that the Transportation Ministry's and his own door will remain open to them. Addressing the fighting in Lebanon, the minister stressed the solidarity displayed by Israeli society, which he said is "stronger than any external threat."

So the rumors that Israel was going to attack Hizbollah at some point and that the July 11 provocation was a good excuse may have some validity.

A Lebanese Visits Syria

A Lebanese American relative of The Ouwet Front had to visit Syria on his way to America. He reports:

I can say with clarity that I have a pretty good judge of character. Not just for people, but for all things: plants, animals, rocks, and the nicer-looking ketchup bottles. I typically make a decent evaluation in my head before coming to my once-and-for-all conclusion. Having said that, allow me to expand a bit and state that I could feel dirt and grime start to fuse itself onto my skin as soon as I set foot on Syrian soil.

Yes, Syria. Having no other choice to leave but through there, what else could I do? Now I’m not the biggest fan of these Middle Eastern countries because the people and their governments make them terrible, but surely there must be some redeeming value, right?

Wrong.

Syria, from what I could tell, was just gross. To expand on that point a bit, I’m Lebanese. Now, my country has had the shit beaten out of it for well over 40 years, and it still looks better than Syria. Lebanon, with all its explosions and attacks on the innocent, is still infinitely better-looking than that previously-mentioned shithole. Syria has no grass to speak of and the stench can practically be seen in the air.

There is more including a bit on the "sanitary" facilities in a Syrian airport.

There is a reason he calls the country a shit hole. Read it all to get the ugly details.

An Intel Bonanza

Mike Diamond at Israpundit looks at a Debka article that outlines a number of Israeli deficiencies. I'm going to look at it from the other end of the telescope. He starts out with gloom and doom.

Once you read this article, and assuming you come to the same conclusions as I did, it may provide the rationale for Israel agreeing so readily to the ceasefire. Having lost the PR war, and given that Israel was being lambasted for air bombardments, one area where they had superiority, and finding that they were getting surprised in many cases on the ground, they may have realized that they were not in a good position to undertake a major ground offensive without losing an enormous number of men.

Iran was screaming for a cease fire after the first week. Israel reluctantly acquiesed to one some 27 days later. The Israeli leadership under performed. It did not lose. There is a difference. Here is a look at Hizbollah's anti-tank tools and tactics.

This is how Hizballah functions. An estimated 500 to 600 members of their roughly 4,000-strong fighting strength in South Lebanon are divided into groups of 5 or 6, each armed with 5-8 anti-tank missiles, with a further supply in their small well-fortified camouflaged bunkers, built to withstand Israeli air attacks.

The bunkers Israeli troops captured in fierce fighting were found to contain a supply of ordnance and 4-6 anti-tank rockets.

The Hizballah guerrillas take care to fire them at Israeli tanks by night from a distance of 2-3 km. After a hit, the Israeli tank crew calls up reinforcements – one part of which tows the tank back behind the Israeli border while second dashes forward to engage the Hizballah assault group.

Hizballah then reacts in two ways. The assault team advances towards the Israeli force under cover of a heavy shelling by 120 mm and 220 mm mortars, Syrian and Iranian short range 107mm and 122 mm rockets and 230 mm Katyushas. This tactic gives the Hizballah team the chance of striking another tank or armored vehicle in 38 percent of the instances.

Another Hizballah team may also lie in wait for a tank unit in the bunkers strewn among the fortified dwellings after sowing the area with anti-tank mines and huge roadside bombs. The guerrillas in the bunkers wait quietly for the tanks to pass by and then shoot them in the rear from their bunkers while also activating the roadside bombs.

The answer to this in the short run is combined arms. Tanks and infantry supporting each other. Since WW2 these kinds of tactics have been used against tanks. You respond to the mortars with faster counter battery fire. Radar controlled artillery. There are such things in existance. Israel needs to buy them. Then build a better version itself.

Here is an interesting bit on a tank problem and its solutions. It makes a point about the incompetence of the political element.

3. Up until the shock of the July 12 Hizballah attack, Israel’s policy-makers - and therefore the army - were ruled overwhelmingly by a conviction that Israel faced no major war threat in the next five years, except for the daily grind against Palestinian terrorists. Therefore, they enacted some economies in defense spending, including cutting out the installation of Rafael’s Trophy active protection system for all the IDF’s tanks.

Trophy creates a hemispheric protected zone around a vehicle such as a tank which intercepts and destroys incoming threats. It has three elements: The Threat Detection and Warning subsystem, which consists of several sensors, including flat-panel radar placed at strategic spots around the vehicle to provide full hemispherical coverage.

Once an incoming threat is detected, identified and verified, the Countermeasure Assembly is opened and the countermeasure device positioned so as to intercept the threat. It is then launched automatically into a ballistic trajectory to intercept the incoming threat at a distance.

Trophy is marketed by General Dynamics, which plans to install the system on every new and existing combat vehicle it produces, including Stryker, M-1A2 and FCS. It has completed hundreds of live tests with Israeli Defense Forces and demonstrated its effectiveness in neutralizing anti-tank rockets and guided missiles. The system is in full-scale engineering for inclusion on the Merkava Mark 4 and the light armored vehicle (Stryker).

While Israel saw no need for this protective device until too late, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report that the US army, seeing the steep strategic price Israel paid for this omission, has decided to purchase the Trophy for its tanks and armored vehicles.

Did you get that? The Trophy System was developed by Israel.Defence Update has some nice pictures of the system mounted on vehicles and in action, along with some text that is vaguely familiar.

Defence Review .com has video of the system in action if you have the bandwidth.

Until the watershed date of July 12, 2006, when the Hizballah triggered the Lebanon War, Israel was accounted an important world power in the development of electronic warfare systems – so much so that a symbiotic relationship evolved for the research and development of many US and Israeli electronic warfare systems, in which a combination of complementary American and Israeli devices and methods was invested.

The collaboration covers almost every military branch – ground units, air and navy, special operations forces and the devices that track terrorists worldwide.

Israel’s electronic warfare units belong to its Signal Corps, and its early warning systems units are part of the Military Intelligence Corps-AMAN.

In combat against Hizballah (whose makeup and methods of operation will be outlined in a separate article in this issue), both were not only found wanting, but had been actively neutralized, so that none performed the functions for which they were designed.

I'm sure the Americans and Israelis will derive great lessons out of this experience. Once problems are identified, solutions can be found. Before 12 July the problem was not even recognized. New electronics can be fielded in 3 to 4 months. New software in even less time.

1. The intelligence and electronic warfare units of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps provided Hizballah with an electronic warfare arm.

2. Iran developed special systems capable of blocking a large section of Israel’s electronic warfare network.

3. Thirty days into the Lebanon war, American and Israeli officials have concluded that Iran decided to use the Lebanon conflict as the testing ground for its military, intelligence and electronic capabilities in preparation for a potential clash with the United States and Israel in other theaters of war.

Excellent. Now we know some of what they have and also how they think. Counter measures have probably been under development for at least 30 days.

This was a spoiling attack meant to get Iran to show at least some of its capabilities. Despite the tone of the article, use of the systems in Lebanon was not an Iranian advantage. It squandered resources and a significant amount of surprise.

Next covered is the anti-ship attack. I will not cover it in depth. The mistakes made were mostly operational. There are, however, some technical problems.

In the first three days of the war, Israel was certain it had cast an electronic blanket over South Lebanon and jammed military communications and telephone networks, including mobile phones. The IDF general staff were under the illusion that they had knocked out the communication links between Hassan Nasrallah and his local commanders.

They were wrong.

It took a while to discover that Iranian electronic warfare operators had chalked up another major success in the Lebanon War. They had prevented Israeli electronic devices from jamming Hizballah’s communications networks in the battle zones of South Lebanon and blanking out the signal systems connecting Hizballah command and control posts across the country and linking them to Syria. This explains why, despite repeatedly bomb strikes of Hizballah’s Al Manar TV and Nour Radio studios in S. Beirut, the station has been able to broadcast almost without interruption.

The Iranian electronic engineers’ success was such that, on Wednesday, Aug. 9, Day 29 of the war, Hizballah’s communications networks were still operating at points only 500 meters from the Israeli border.

They were also functioning at the toughest strongholds holding out against Israel attacks: Ayt a-Chaab in the west and Al Khaim in the east.

However, after a fierce battle at Qantara just south of the Litani River, the bodies were found of three Iranian intelligence officers with documents of identification and gear that showed them to have been operators of local networks for jamming Israeli radar and communications.

Israeli forces searching through the bunkers they cleaned out in South Lebanon were amazed to discover that many contained subterranean state of the art communications rooms fitted out with advanced instruments with Iranian encoding.

When you get copies of the enemies codes and signaling methods you make breaking the codes easier. Especially if you have copies of the coded and plaintext messages. This is probably one of the most important finds of the war. An intel bonanza.

All this published material shows how deeply impressed the Islamic fundamentalist movement is by the unlimited flow of rockets reaching Hizballah and the fact that no one in the western world, except the Israeli air force, lifted a finger to stem the flow from Syria and Iran.

The counter to this is simple and untried due to stupid Israeli leadership. Regime change in Damascus and Teheran. I think the Hashmonean has the best take on this. Arabs are impressed with fireworks. Compare the damage to South Beirut you have all seen on the TV vs Michael Totten's pictures and reports on damage to Kriat Shemona.

The Hizballah organization brings every Shiite village and urban neighborhood into its fold under the governance of the local “security committee.” This is a form of local command office that keeps the regular army of 6,000 men strictly in line.

All totolitarian armies need minders. This is a weakness, not a strength.

The setbacks of the first three weeks were partly due to tactical incompetence and laggard decision-making on the part of prime minister Ehud Olmert and defense minister Peretz. Israeli troops therefore spent too long in abrading combat against stubborn Hizballah resistance in such places as Maroun er Ras and Bint Jubeil. But as soon as Israeli ground forces shifted to the massive, long-distance firing mode which it knows best, the impact on the warfront was immediate.

Hizballah soon showed signs of distress. Lacking the weapons and resources to stand up to IDF’s precise-shooting juggernaut, their commanders quickly pulled their men out most combat sectors of South Lebanon and ordered them to regroup in five places.

These pockets became the main launching-pads for rockets fired into Israel.

With the right Israeli manpower level, Hizballah’s abilty to fire rockets can be dented, notwithstanding claims by Israel officials and generals. However, Olmert is still keeping the army short.

Still, by Thursday, August 3, Hizballah was showing signs of being in trouble.

Local Hizballah village commanders signaled repeated appeals for more manpower and ammunition and, most significantly, Hizballah’s shadowy special operations chief, the long-wanted Imad Mughniyeh, was hurriedly appointed commander of the southern front as a last resort to save South Lebanon.

I think that is the key point. A well lead army that uses its strength properly can defeat all the Hizbollah advantages by manuver. Troops in fortifications are stuck in place. They are not useful in mobil warfare except against supply lines. Once they come out of their holes they are targets and their holes are targets.

Update: 22 Aug '06 0620z

Commenter Karridine reminds me that if you haven't read these two you ought to. They will help a lot in understanding Arab armies.

Why Arabs Lose Wars I

Why Arabs Lose Wars II

Gloom and Doom

The Israeli Armed forces under inadequate military and civilian leadership did not perform up to its highest capabilities. It did not lose the war.

You could not tell this from reading most Israeli and Jewish blogs. I covered the Hashmonean who has a different view (as I do) in Aftermath. Just to present the other side I'm going to provide links.

Kesher Talk on the Syrian Victory and the Defence Minister's incompetence. I keep forgetting the Defence Minister's name. Putz is close enough.

Israpundit has a gloomy and not all together correct lessons learned. It does cover a lot of the military lessons learned in detail. It shows what was learned from the battle that will help in the next one, but fails to directly state that fact. It does point out that as in WW2 there was a Wizard War going on. Israeli engineers and scientists (not to mentiion Americans) will look at the captured eqpt., documents, and bunkers and will figure out countermeasures. This is a HUGE bonanza of intelligence and operational facts. Well worth the price Israel and America paid. It will weaken Iran as operational and technical fixes are implimented.

Big Pharoah has a round up and points out the salient fact. Hizbollah was good in a defensive battle. They were useless for offensive purposes.

Israel Matzav discusses an article that states America is not going to love Israel as much because of the expense vs. results of the war. I think that is nuts. I'm going to susspend additions here for a while. During that time I'm going to do a bit on the real value of the war.

I'm looking around and will be adding to the list. Check back.

The Lebanese Army is Deploying ... in the Bekaa

The Lebanese Army is deploying in eastern Lebanon:

UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen on Sunday praised the deployment of the Lebanese army on the country's border with Israel and said the UN was seeking "a diplomatic solution" concerning Hizbullah's weapons smuggling.

Roed-Larsen said 2,000 Lebanese soldiers have been deployed so far along Lebanon's eastern border near Syria with the goal of eventually having 8,600 along the border. Some 1,000 Lebanese soldiers also have been deployed along Lebanon's coastline, he said.

Let us do the math. 8,600 to the Syrian border, 1,000 on the coast. That leaves 5,400 for South Lebann. Obviously the Lebanese consider Syria the big danger. Besides why should Syria get all the smuggling profits? Or any?

When gangsters fall out there is sometimes a gang war if there is no controlling mob boss.

And what is smuggled in Bekaa? Money, weapons, drugs, people. This is the life blood of Hizbollah. The Lebanese Army is going for the throat. The lines of supply. Israel has at minimum spotters for bombing runs and special forces in the area. Maybe the broo ha ha over Israel's Bekaa attack was not about the attack but the lack of promised back channel co-ordination. It is in the interest of Israel and the Lebanese not controlled by Syria to have such co-operation. We probably won't know for years unless such co-operation is forced into the open. Which, at least at this point is only in Hezbollah's interest.

The Palestinians Want a Chance

There is a report that the Palestinians might want a chance at firing rockets at Israel from Lebonon (that would be Lebanese Palestinians as opposed to Egyptian Palestinians, Jordanian Palestinians, or Israeli Palestinians. Not to mention Palestinian Palestinians and American Palestinians.) Evidently the Iranians must do something for 22 August, the Hizbollah has said "no mas", so Lebanese Palestinians are all the infantry left for Iran.

Lebanon's defense minister Elias Murr said he was certain Hizbullah would not break the cease-fire but warned Palestinian groups of harsh measures and a traitor's fate if they incited Israeli retaliation by launching rockets into the Jewish state on Sunday.

Defense Minister Elias Murr's strong warning to Palestinians indicated concern that Syrian-backed Palestinian militants might try to restart the fighting by drawing retaliation from Israel. He insisted Hizbullah would hold its fire.

"We consider that when the resistance (Hizbullah) is committed not to fire rockets, then any rocket that is fired from the Lebanese territory would be considered collaboration with Israel to provide a pretext (for Israel) to strike," he said.

I like what Charles says about the Palestinians: "such a charming people, lets give them a state."

BTW anyone notice the resistance is no longer resisting? Pretty strange. I thought they won.

Iran Prepares for Next Phase

Commenter Mark had this to say about Iran's military manuvers:

If the Hashmonean is right, and I think he is, then Iran's 'military exercises' this weekend may be less offensive and more defensive in nature. If they understand they've lost the Hezballah-gambit, they may now fear we will follow through by invading them. If so, that tells me they are much more vulernable than even we hawks thought.

And, I'm not expert on the Iranian military, but I wonder if sending so many troops to the border regions might not leave them more vulnerable in their cities to a citizen uprising.

To which I replied[revised and extended]:

You are exactly correct. This is defensive. They expect an attack in 5 weeks or less.

The troops that will be sent to the border will be less reliable troops that in the past would not use violence on their own citizens. Backed up and intermingled with the Republican Guard and the "religious" minders.

The cities will be guarded by Basji which I believe are special police made up of out of country Arabs. What a job. I have heard rumors of a significant Palestinian component in this force. Just another chance to make temselves unpopular.

The Basji is no longer going to have the Republican guard units in as great a number for back-up as before the manuvers started. Some of the Republican guards are needed to watch the army. So far the mullahs have had enough power to put down rebellions in several cities at once. This may no longer be the case.

Army forces that need to be stiffened by minders and backed by more reliable troops are severely lacking in manuverability and military strength. Also they lack the most important component of any military on the defensive: the will to resist.

Part of the force may be just itching for the chance to surrender to the Americans, who are coming.

Murder Up, Stupidity the Same

Reuters says murders are up. They start out with the murder of an innocent at home praying at a shine in the place where her brother was murdered.

ROXBURY, Massachusetts (Reuters) - Analicia Perry was kneeling to light a candle at a makeshift shrine to her brother when she was shot in the face and killed -- four years to the day after her brother was gunned down on the same spot.

The slaying of the 20-year-old mother -- on a narrow street behind a police station in Boston's poor Roxbury district last month -- is one of the shocking examples of a rise in the murder rate across the United States that is raising questions about whether police are fighting terrorism at the expense of crime.

Read the whole thing. Then tell me if you can find one reference to drug prohibition? None. The best they can do is mention "drug violence" near the bottom. Oh, yea. Gangs. Which they fail to note, are funded in large part by the black market in drugs.

Lies by omission. Lies of misdirection.

I have written lots on the nexus of crime, terrorism, and drug prohibition. See my sidebar. My latest is: Drug War Meets Terror War

The Drug War Meets the Terror War

Little Green Footballs has a report that Hizbollah was using night vision goggles that it got from Iran in its fight with Israel. And how did Iran get the British, special export license required, night vision goggles? From the UN drug prohibition enforcement program. But that is not the end of it. Who is the biggest champion of the Single Convention drug control treaty which is at the core of the UN drug control regime? A championing that began in the 20s. The USA. It is time to rethink some policies. There are some out there that may be doing more harm than good. Say, I wonder if any one out there still remembers alcohol prohibition? Any one at all?

This is not the first time I have written about the intersection of the drug war with the terror war. I wrote a piece in 2002 about how we have more FBI agents chasing drugs than terrorists.

Update: 20 Aug '06 1322z

Commenter aaphat at Left Independent has written on the intersection of the drug war and the terror war.

Fentanyl/heroin today - alQaeda heroin tomorrow

and

Stateless Terrorist Armies; Accepted Collateral Damage of the Drug War

Scroll down.

You might also be interested in why I consider the whole drug war a waste. Drugs are not the problem. Just as chronic insulin use is not a diabetic's real problem.

Is Addiction Real?

also see:

Ill Gotten Gains
Murder Up, Stupidity the Same

Update 20 Aug '06 2011z

Captains Quarters also discusses the goggles.

Arab Leader Asks for Terms

The Jerusalem Post reports:

Qatar's foreign minister called upon Israel to take advantage of the current opportunity to reach a peace agreement with moderate Arab leaders.

In an interview that will be published in Newsweek on Monday, he warned that future generations of leaders may be more extreme and might insist on "pushing Israel into the sea."

A push into the sea? This has been the standard Arab offer for 58 years. Maybe they are coming to their senses.

Israel lost and yet an Arab state is asking for terms.

Who is winning again? This is very hard to figure out.

Assad in Trouble with Arabia

Captain's Quarters has an interesting post up about all the trouble Assad is in for calling the Arab world girlie men for not helping Hizbollah in the fight against Israel. I want to look at a little different part of the Jerusalem Post article the Captain also discusses.

"Syria would've reaped benefits, including an easing of the pressure it's been under, had (Assad's) speech been more moderate," said Jamil Nimri, a prominent Jordanian analyst.

"But the speech has set things back and Syria has lost deep Arab solidarity," he added. "It is now in a worse situation that it was at the start of the war."

The Hizbollah deterrent is blown. Syria is worse off diplomatically.

I wonder who is losing?

Israel. It did not meet expctations. Instead of routing its enemy it only solidly defeated them.

The winners? Syria and the Arab world who are now at each other's throats because of the great victory Hizbollah won against the Israelis.

There must be something I'm missing.

Electronic Voting

Armed Liberal at Winds of Change is discussing the virtues or lack of them of electronic voting I get my 2¢ in of course. My conclusions:

I think electronic counting of paper ballots would be OK.

Make the counters cheap enough and you have two machines from different mfgs. count the ballots.

If they agree each sends on the results. If not. Manual recount from the roving recount team.

The main thing is to have checks on the system. Just like double entry book keeping.

In a disputed election a manual recount is possible if the party wishes to pay for it.

How do you dispute bits in a Diebold machine?

The system not only has to give the technically adept confidence, it has to give confidence to the ordinary citizen. Paper. Electronically counted twice. Hand counted only when the electronics disagree.

Some Democrats think Republicans are stealing elections with Diebold machines.

Let them pay for a recount of paper ballots.

Honest open systems give confidence that the voting was fairly done.

Confidence is as important as accuracy.

It should be part of the specification although not exactly quatifiable.

It is critical that losers be as confident as winners in the system. It reduces the odds of extremely sore losers taking matters into their own hands.

The important criteria for a voting system are:

Confidence in the Vote
Anonymity of the Ballot
Accuracy of the Count
Voter Verification
Ability to Recheck the Results
Speed

Update: 22 Aug '06 1442z

The discussion continues at The Captain's Quarters

Bekaa Ground Raids

Israel is doing commando raids in the Bekaa.

The IDF said the commandos entered Lebanon "to prevent and interfere with terror activity against Israel, especially the smuggling of arms from Iran and Syria to Hizbullah." The military claimed that the force completed its mission successfully, and that such operations would be carried out until a multinational force was in place to prevent Hizbullah's rearmament.

The Israelis could be there a long time considering the rate troops are pouring in. France just sent 50.

The IDF said it was aware that the operation was risky and could spark a new round of violence with Hizbullah including the possible renewal of Katyusha rocket attacks on northern Israel. Despite the risk, the IDF decided to go ahead with the operation, which it said could not have been carried out by the air. A senior officer said last week that the IDF was allowed to bomb weapon convoys crossing into Lebanon from Syria on their way to Hizbullah.

Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr threatened to halt deployment of Lebanese troops if the United Nations did not intervene against Israel. After an evening meeting with UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen, Murr said the UN official was traveling to Israel and would discuss the matter there. "We have put the matter forward in a serious manner and the UN delegation was understanding of the seriousness of the situation," he told reporters. "We are awaiting an answer."

Serious matters deserve serious discussions and possibly a serious reprimand accusing Israel of unfairly protecting itself. Kofi Annan promises harsh rhetoric in harsh tones. And if Israel doesn't behave he will what? Pull out the UN troops and let the fighting restart?

And the Lebanese Army will not deploy further? Geeze, that is really scary. What if the war starts again? You can't make this stuff up.

The French Have Arrived

All 50 of them. That isn't even a company. It is a platoon.

Some 50 French Engineering Corps soldiers were scheduled to arrive in Lebanon on Saturday.

France has pledged to contribute 200 soldiers to the international force to be deployed in Lebanon as part of the cease-fire agreement between Beirut and Jerusalem.

Two hundred French soldiers were already present in Lebanon.

Engineering troops are used for mine clearance, disposing of explosive ordinance (unexploded shells, bombs, and arms caches), constructing temporary bridges, and repairing roadways. It will be interesting to see what tasks they are assigned.

If they start out fixing roads and putting up bridges you will know this is an elaborate French joke.

The Resistor Have Stopped Resisting

The mighty "resistors" of Hezbollah have stopped resisting.

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israeli commandos raided a Hizbollah stronghold in eastern Lebanon on Saturday in what Beirut described as a "naked violation" of the U.N.-backed truce that ended Israel's 34-day war with the Shi'ite guerrillas.

A senior United Nations envoy in Beirut said the U.N. was trying to establish what had happened in the dawn raid in the Bekaa Valley but added that if media reports were true, it would undoubtedly represent a breach of the six-day-old truce.

So is Hezbollah not disarming. But he who is keeping score? The UN? That explains everything.

Israel said the operation, in which commandos were airlifted into the area by helicopter, was defensive and was designed to disrupt weapons supplies to Hizbollah from Syria and Iran.

It denied it had violated the resolution, which allows it to act in self-defense, and accused Hizbollah of doing so by smuggling weapons. Roed-Larsen said that if the guerrilla group was found to have smuggled weapons, it would indeed be in breach of the truce.

About 16 hours after the raid, details of what took place remained unclear.

Lebanese security sources said Israeli helicopters unloaded two vehicles carrying commandos who headed toward an office of a Hizbollah leader, Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek, in Bodai, 26 km (16 miles) from the Syrian border.

The Israelis were intercepted and withdrew under cover of air strikes, they said.

The sources said three Hizbollah guerrillas were killed in a firefight with the Israelis, although Hizbollah said none of its fighters were killed or wounded.

Air strikes? With what? Bullets shot in the air? It is almost like they are reading this blog to counter unhappy facts.

I hope so.

Also note that Reuters presented the anti-Israeli complaint first. The usual media bias.

The most interesting point is that these fire fights so far are local affairs and Hizbollah (what spelling do you like?) is not restarting a general ground war or any rocket attacks to teach the Israelis a lesson.

Explain again who won?

The Palestinians had better come to terms quick. The kid gloves are off.

A Shorter Aftermath

The long version of what happened in Lebanon is in Aftermath. The short version of what happened in Lebanon is: it was a spoiling attack designed to destroy Iranian deterrence. Deterrence rests on fear. In this case the fear of barrages of cheap rockets. The Iranians have found out that you can't scare the Israelis on the cheap.

Michael Totten has some good pictures of the aftermath in Israel.

Real military powers have Air Forces. Every body else in this world is just a bunch of wannabes.

So how about a couple of questions. The Israeli Air Force can buzz Damascus with impunity. What would happen if the Syrian Airforce buzzed Haifa?

The Israeli Airforce with in flight refueling (they have and use the tankers) can reach Iran. Can the Iranian Airfoce reach Israel? What would happen if they did?

The Israeli Airforce is making Bekaa runs. Have the rocket barrages or the ground war restarted?

Now tell me who won.

In 22 August I talk about what kind of nuclear rocket attack from Iran is possible and what the Israeli response is likely to be. Short version. Leaflet a city and then nuke it. Or bomb a few nuke production installations.

Update: 19 Aug '06 1732z

Slightly OT: The Canadians are blaming Hizbollah for starting the war.

Update: 20 Aug '06 0729z

You can fight a war without an airforce. You can slow the enemy down with fortifications. You can kill enemy soldiers. You cannot win.

Ask yourself. Is Hizbollah holding Israeli territory? Or is Israel holding Hizbollah territory? Israel has a whole lot of mildly damaged buildings (see the Totten link above). Hizbollah has whole blocks of buildings converted into rubble. If the war was to restart tomorrow which side would be in better shape?

The Israeli Army is in trouble. Not because it did poorly. But, because it did not live up to expectations. The French should have an army so good. Well maybe not. They still have delusions of grandeur.

Aftermath

The Hashmonean has a four part series on the Second Lebanon War. The first part covers essential history with links that cover the issues in more detail. Also included is a week by week summary of the fighting with maps. For those of you at least somewhat conversant with recent (last 30 to 40 years) Lebanese history, here is the key point from part one.

The threat from Hezbollah an Iranian proxy is derived mainly from their missile & rocket arsenal, and recently by the extensive bunker and strategic installations built / situated on the Lebanese Israel border. To understand who won, these factors are the critical ones.

People are talking of perceptions and what have you, I'll address that in another post following, perception is not reality. The rockets mentioned supplied by Iran mostly, and shipped through Syria have been ramping with Hezbollah for over a decade now. This arsenal was not secret, it was in fact a key portion of Iran's strategic depth in the region, a deterrence weapon holding Israel back, not even necessarily through lethality per say, but on the grounds that any actions Israel might take could result in thousands & thousands of rockets launching at Israel's population centers in the North. The fear in Israel of the unknown result of this rocket barrage was the deterrence that Iran enjoyed.

The answer to that is that the Israeli people withstood 34 days of rocket barrages and they were ready for thirty four days more. Morale was excellent. The army was still full of fight.

Seven thousand sorties of aircraft, 3,500 loads of ordinance dropped. Real military powers have air forces. Every body else in this world are just wannabes.

So that is part one. In part two he discusses the win loss column and comes up with, no matter how badly beaten, Arabs never lose. Then he discusses reality.

How does one measure victory in War? Is it total surrender, or perhaps one measures it in who paid the greatest cost, is it measured in territory or KMs conquered? Perhaps the diplomacy itself after the fighting has entirely ceased determines the victor.. Maybe it involves all of the above, or none but clearly such questions are complex.

He says a lot of really good stuff that is meaty and clear and worth a read and then comes to the heart of the matter.

Hezbollah is a proxy for Iran, as such it had only one main objective here, to divert attention from Iran & the growing pressure that country is facing. As posted in Part I, that effort to sideline the G8 spiraled well out of control, well beyond Iran's goals and negatively at that. (please note when I say Iran, Iran, Iran, I mean the theocracy, not nec. all the Iranians.. but plenty of them)

Then he covers a lot of stuff you need for really deep understandin and comes up with this gem.

Iran in fact was calling for CEASE FIRE! within one week of the conflict exploding. Everyone is so fixated on the fact that Hezbollah was not annihilated it seems many are overlooking what this conflict is really about, and that is Iran employing its proxy in Lebanon.

It gets worse for Hezbollah itself.. Lebanon sustained massive damage, Hezbollah sustained massive damage, Hezbollah's standing is being portrayed by many as elevated, perhaps within the uneducated simpletons that make up the Muslim world (and for whom fireworks means victory) this sort of absurdity flies high. Perhaps also in the media (which detests Israel with such a passion it can hardly be believed) this is a convenient image to portray as well.

Then he explains the Arab street and its importance. After that he gets to:

Hezbollah has brought ruin & disaster to Lebanon & the Lebanese people. Those same people are now absorbing the fact that their weakness in the face of this terrorist entity was a massive failure, it nearly (and may yet) cost them their freedom, freedom that itself came in the form of booting out Syria (another Hezbollah patron) after decades of occupation, freedom which cost Lebanon literally hundreds of thousands of lives in their wars this past 30 years. They want modernity, prosperity.. But Hezbollah has brought them PURE disaster. Semi free people often cannot easily speak truth, just as the whole Soviet block desired the same freedom, and we never heard it until the wall came down. The evident hatred for communism and similar oppression was so massive - it brought down one of the World's superpowers, and all the client states surrounding it. We need to wake up a little bit I think..

Fortunately thee are some who are expressing their aspirations, the number of Lebanese bloggers astounds me.

There are even a number of Syrian blogs, Fares is a favorite. He and I have been having regular discussions. Here is our latest. For me the most interesting part of this war was that you could hold open conversations across borders. People got discusted with each other, flamed each other but kept talking.

When people get to talking it threatens the totolitarians. And the Iranians know it. Seductive images from the west have been banned but not eliminated. Being a totolitarian requires a lot of vigilance.

Now here comes an important part. Thugs cannot survive without enugh bodies. A given size gang can control only a certain amount of territory. Too much territory per thug and their authority breaks down.

Hezbollah has indeed been weakened militarily in a massive blow, over 500-600 out of approx 2000 core fighters killed. Out of the so called 1000 civilians claimed by Lebanon you can rest assured half if not MORE were Hezbollah fighters as well. Does one believe that in all those strikes near Baalbek, in Tyre, in the Hezbollah HQ in South Beirut, on the Syrian border etc etc - everyone killed was a civilian!?

Are we to be taken for morons? Who was manning these facilities, weapons depots, launching sites, ghosts!? Frankly, just because Emile Lahoud says something, does not make it so. In the Arab World, illusionary massacres & victories are the order of the day. Everything is massacre, the very existence of Israel is called a massacre, a NAKBA (disaster) for the Arab World. It's all BS, and buying into this narrative is not only a mistake, it's downright criminal a travesty of truth.

The Hashmonean lives with this culture as neighbors. The Emperor is naked. Capishe?

Then after more interesting facts and conclusions about Lebanon he goes into Israel.

There is a disconnect going round in regards to Israel too in my opinion. Many, myself included would have liked to have seen a full on onslaught. If you read Part I you know this never happened, and in reality it was not in the cards for the current Israeli leadership in power.

Whether this was good strategy or bad strategy is a topic for the next post (Part III), but it does not change certain realities that are now very clear, the fact that the objectives for Israel were not MEANT to be met militarily alone. The use of force was employed to enhance the main thrust which was diplomatic from day one. The goal of retrieving the soldiers would not have been met by military means, and no one in Israel was under different illusions. We must see the return of these soldiers, the passing of a resolution with some positive and many negatives not mandating this was a partial defeat that is certain. But what is equally certain is that Hezbollah by diplomatic means was not to be disarmed this week either, who propagated this myth? It's removed from reality totally, as soon as the cease fire went into effect this massive misconception floated out.

The resolution was bad, the dependency on UNIFIL worse, but this does not mean Israel has lost the war by any stretch. There must be some time to absorb, and to allow processes to hopefully progress. I am a warmonger, and even I realize the unfortunate reality of this. Such is how the deck was dealt, it appears this was the goal from the get go in fact. To parlay this into a victory for the enemy shows a phenomenal lack of comprehension of what has really gone on.

The Hashmonean is a war monger. A man after my own black heart. Fifteen dead men on a dead man's chest. You don't win wars without some blackness in your heart.Grim: Killing Children. The real question is "is the blackheartedness a permanent condition?" America has a pretty good record. We have screwed up some countries and helped a lot of others to get self government over time. South Korea being a prime example.

Then Hashmonean then asks is disarming Hezbollah going to happen?

The choice was clearly made right or wrong by the Israeli politicians to effectuate this through the Lebanese themselves. Will it work, it is far TOO EARLY to pass judgment. In the mean time Hezbollah says no, but we have seen Hezbollah clearly saying MANY MANY things, how many of them have turned out to be truthful? The Diplomacy was not as strong as it should have been; the stand by the West was watered (so what's new? We have the Europeans and their dreamers to contend with.) Perhaps implementation will come, perhaps partially, perhaps not at all. But the Lebanese army IS rolling for the first time in 30 years.. Hezbollah will not be re-armed so quickly, and process with all its failures or achievements is underway. Is it flawed? Surely it is, would have it been better for Israel to assault fully? Surely it may have been, but is the planet breaking up? No, it isn't. Did Hezbollah just walk away victorious? Not even in Nasrallah's own wet dreams..

The Lebanese Army no matter how weak and infiltrated in his own back yard.

After elaborating on the Israel case the Hashmonean then discusses Iran.

Iran has very little going for it as far as nations go. It is a marginalized country in the West, Persian in a sea of Arab nations, power hungry yet impotent to exert that power.. Do we think Iran wants nukes because it is powerful? Quite the opposite. Does Iran emerge as the foremost supporter of terror because its ideology and might is great and winning? Quite the opposite. Iran's biggest strategic arm is Hezbollah, and the thousands upon thousands of rockets Hezbollah maintained. This sea of rockets was a major deterrent, I say was because those days are now gone.

Strikes against Iran have always been tempered in some way by this sea of rockets, the fear being mass retaliation on Israel and the obvious unknown this would entail.. It seems many have simply blindly overlooked this fact which is at the heart of this conflict. Iran is yelling victory, but the reality is a loss of such monumental proportions it DRASTICALLY alters the balance of power in the region.

By taking all the punishment Hizbollah could deliver for 34 days and not flinching the Israels have eliminated the fear factor from the next war.

Even WMDs other than nuclear are not scary. They were expected but not experienced in '91. I'd hate to be the first muslim country to use a nuke on Israel, which is the only step up from fears already surmounted.

Well any way. Go read the whole thing. There is a lot to digest. Parts III an IV yet to come.

You might also like some stuff I've done along parallel lines if you haven't read it already.

Why Did Hizbollah Surrender?

Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath

You Say You Want a Revolution?

The politicians in Israel are now caught up in such a war fever that not even the Shia in their wildest frenzy can produce. The Israelis want revenge, badly. They want a remach as soon as it can be arranged. Syia too. Iran is welcome to join in. Hell, encouraged. This is no time to be trifling with the Israelis. They have figured out that they will never be loved except by themselves and at this time a lot of the American people. I think they will decide that is enough. While throwing out the current crop of socialist incompetents that is, so policy can be brought in line with the will of the people. Pissed democracies are wilful, focused, and fearful. Israel has just had its most recent December 7th. Not an exact parallel except for the idea that it has welded a fractious nation. Now they are out for revenge.

Heaven have mercy on Hizbollah because the Israelis won't.

Update: 20 Aug '06 2042z

Commenter Mark brings up this very important point:

If the Hashmonean is right, and I think he is, then Iran's 'military exercises' this weekend may be less offensive and more defensive in nature. If they understand they've lost the Hezballah-gambit, they may now fear we will follow through by invading them. If so, that tells me they are much more vulernable than even we hawks thought.

And, I'm not expert on the Iranian military, but I wonder if sending so many troops to the border regions might not leave them more vulnerable in their cities to a citizen uprising.

To which I responded [revised and extended]:

You are exactly correct. This is defensive. They expect an attack in 5 weeks or less.

The troops that will be sent to the border will be less reliable troops that in the past would not use violence on their own citizens. Back up and intermingled with the Republican Guard and the "religious" minders.

The cities will be guarded by Basji which I believe are special police made up of out of country Arabs. What a job. I have heard rumors of a significant Palestinian component in this force. Just another chance to make temselves unpopular.

The Basji is no longer going to have the Republican guard units in as great a number for back-up as before the manuvers started. Some of the Republican guard is needed to watch the army. So far the mullahs have had enough power to put down rebellions in several cities at once. This may no longer be the case.

Army forces that need to be stiffened by minders and backe by more reliable troops are severely lacking in manuverability and military strength. The will to resist.

Part of the force may be just itching for the chance to surrender to the Americans, who are coming.

Bekaa Again

The Jerusalem Post and Y-Net News are reporting Israeli jets and drones over the Bekaa near Baalbeck. Lots of shooting from the ground. Israel reports no planes or targets on the ground hit. From the Jerusalem Post report:

IAF drones and warplanes were crisscrossing the skies above Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley on Friday night, near the Hizbullah stronghold of Baalbek, security officials said.

The IDF confirmed the flights but stressed that the planes did not open fire and in turn had not violated the cease-fire put into action on Monday.

The French news agency reported that IAF planes attacked an uninhabited area next to the city of Baalbek. According to their report, low-flying IAF helicopters shot four missiles in the area.

Police in Lebanon claimed that anti-aircraft fire chased away the IAF aircraft, but that to their knowledge there had been no IAF missile attack.

What that probably means is that anti-aircraft rounds returned to earth and in effect did an own side goal. Always a danger with anti-air weapons that don't hit their target.

From the Y-Net report:

After the ceasefire came into effect, senior officers said that the air force will continue to carry out sorties in order to ensure the safety of the forces on the ground, but that no strikes will be launched.

The army also stated that IAF warplanes did not sustain any hits in the course of these sorties.

However, no comments were made on Friday's report.

Israeli war planes frequently fly over Lebanese airspace and during the 34-day war with Hizbullah gunmen attacked targets across the country. The Bekaa Valley was heavily hit during the war, which ended with a UN sponsored truce on Monday, although there have been isolated incidents of violence since then.

Why would Israel be doing this? One possibility is to warn off Syria from re-arming Hizbollah. Or they could be protecting troops still in the Bekaa valley. Another is to show the Hizbollah and the Syrians how impotent they are, you know, "alright suckers come and get me if you can and you dare". Another would be to encourage Hizbollah to do something stupid. Like start the war again.

Kind of like winners spiking the ball.

I really think Hizbollah has said "no mas".

Hollywood Joins the War

Hollywood has joined the war at last.

WASHINGTON - Heads of the film industry in Hollywood and prominent movie stars have signed a statement blaming Hamas and Hizbullah for terror activities in the Middle East, the war in Lebanon, and for harming innocents.

Some 84 senior film industry members signed the statement, published in the Hollywood Reporter newspaper, the Los Angeles Times, and the Variety newspaper.

Among the signatories: Sylvester Stallone, James Woods, Bruce Willis, director Ridley Scott, tennis player Serena Williams, Nicole Kidman, Michael Douglas, Dennis Hopper, William Hurt, Josh Malina, Kelly Preston, Danny DeVito, Don Johnson, and media tycoon Rupert Murdock.

Some expected names. Some not so expected. This war (at least at this time) is not going to be like WW2 where the whole industry figuratively and literally enlisted. Interesting that they hit the LA Times as well as the major Hollywood papers.

The statement said that if terror around the world is not stopped, chaos will rule and innocents will continue to die. The statement called for terror to be stopped at any price.

[Israeli] Consul General Danoch is continuing with his PR activities, and on Wednesday night he briefed the heads of the William Morris agency on the recent events in Lebanon.

I wonder if the left side of Hollywood will catch on?

Hollywood News has more on the ad.

Commenter Robbie has posted a complete list of signers along with a copy of the ad.

You Say You Want a Revolution?

My favorite Syrian blogger (although we often disagree) left a link in a recent post ( Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath ) that I think points out a changed strategy for America and its ally Israel in the war on Islamic fascism. The new strategy is not about militarlily defeating countries that support terrorists and then doing the thankless job of nation building, with the nation builder taking the vast majority of the blame when things do not go well.

The new strategy is to create the conditions that will induce the people of a given nation to overthrow their own government, giving them the incentive to do their own nation building.

Fares says:

I was ready to defend Syria against an eventual hypotetical Israeli agression targeting Syria. But I don’t mind seeing the people of Syria uniting and standing up peacefully to see this regime expelled out of Syria. Syrian People just like Lebanon have a lot of friends too but the regime friends are fast dissapointed. The regime can count only on lunatic unreliable Najjad who wants the soul of Syria plus tacid Israeli support which has kept Bashar in place the last 2 years for the sake of stability.

Not much longer…Syria will be free soon!!! Syrian will be able to question and topple governments soon when things go wrong just like Israelis do. To isrealis I say! no one wants to destroy you! give just Peace a chance and let’s start a fresh page. Let’s exchange olive branches instead of bombs, peace speeches not hate rethoric.

As you can tell Fares believes in peaceful overthrow of opressive governments.

Israel with this war may have created the conditions for just such a revolution in Syria and Iran. What if Hizbollah uses its armed might in a Lennist type coup d'etat? Well at least they will have to deal with the chaos any revolution entails and although Syria may be worse off, its enemies will face the same old same old.

So Fares, if you do get your revolution, you may have to defend it with guns and your lives. Be prepared.

Update: 18 Aug '06 1847z

A commenter reminds me of a famous Jefferson quote which I had meant to include. Thank you anon.

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

France Promises a Token Force

After all of France's screaming about Israel using disproportionate force against Hezbollah it has decided to use disproportionate force to enforce UN mandates 1701 and 1559. Which is to say practically nothing.

The United Nations had counted on France to lead an advance contingent of up to 3,500 fresh troops that it hoped could be in place within two weeks. Paris already has some 200 troops in the existing, 2,000-strong U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and leads the operation.

French President Jacques Chirac assured U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan by phone that his government might yet send in more soldiers depending on the precise mission and rules of engagement, Chirac's office said.

In the meantime, he said the 1,700 troops serving in its air and naval forces in the region would remain in place for the time being, although not be put under U.N. command.

France's reticence surprised many U.N. officials and diplomats, since Paris was a key author of the resolution which spelled out the mandate, and had insisted that all troops be under U.N. command as Lebanon demanded.

How French of the French. And they have the nerve to complain about the perfidy of Albion.

Andrew L. Jaffee has his complaints as well.

Remember that “President Jacques Chirac of France called Israel’s acts [in Lebanon] ‘disproportionate.’” So… call for disarming Hezbollah, condemn Israel for trying to disarm Hezbollah, but when push comes to shove, let Israel disarm Hezbollah. Make sense?

Passing resolutions at the U.N. is one thing. Enforcing those resolutions is another. Remember Resolution 1559, co-authored by France, which “Call[ed] for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias?” This was adopted in 2004. What happened? Hezbollah was allowed to fester and build up an arsenal of 13,000 rockets.

France has now co-authored Resolution 1701, which calls for the “removal from southern Lebanon of Hezbollah as an armed force.” But will France enforce the new resolution? From the BBC:

French Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie voiced concern about deploying troops without clearly defined goals.

“France wants the mission’s rules of engagement to be clear and it to have real means,” she told French TV.

“Sadly, all too often, the United Nations forces don’t have the power that they asked for.”

What a surpise there. Andrew has links to his sources. You can go there to find out more.

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Cash Flow Jihad Meets Aftermath

It is interesting that despite the proclamations of "victory" and early post war intrasigence, Hizbollah is giving in to the demands of the Lebanese Government (sort of) to allow the Lebanese Government to take control of South Lebanon. They still refuse to be disarmed (they promise to not carry their arms openly), they still claim the right to "resist" the Israelis, but they have done nothing that would renew the hostilities.

This is a mystery. They are not acting victorious. They are not dictating terms (much). They are submitting to the Lebanese Army and French peacekeepers under a UN mandate. Why would that be?

It seems not even the Lebanese Shia are happy with Hezbollah.

The tone in Lebanon has already changed. According to friends in Beirut, not even the Shia were happy with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's post-ceasefire speech.

The Shia community is the most vulnerable right now. Hezbollah is using fierce rhetoric, most likely, to intimidate other Lebanese politicians and sects from criticizing them and to delay any talk of their disarmament. This rhetorical move is sending shivers down the spines of most Shia because now is precisely the time to talk about Hezbollah's weapons. We were talking about them before in an effort to prevent something happening like what just occurred. Now, the urgency to talk is even greater.

Hezbollah's rhetoric is frightening many Shia because they are without homes, food, electricity, medication, money, roads, utilities, and other necessities. They could take the fight against Israel. They can't take much more. And they definitely can't take arms against the people who most recently supported them when they were in need; the very people who currently in a much better state than those who lost their homes.

Many Shia claim that if Hezbollah doesn't provide them with support very soon, they will no longer be able to support the organization. Many Shia were willing to support Hezbollah through thick and thin because Hezbollah took care of them. In Dahieh Jounoubieh (the southern suburbs of Beirut which is primiarly Shia and where Hezbollah's headquarters are located), Hezbollah was referred to as chebab (guys) who took care of all sorts of mundane problems.

The problem for the Shia is that those neighborhoods are gone. Israel's tactic of avoiding death and sticking to destruction has created a logistical nightmare for Hizbollah. They now have a vast Army of walking wounded to deal with. The dead are low maintenance, the wounded are high maintenance. This is a very expensive problem. Food, shelter, and housing must be provided to all those supporters and their families. The tall apartment complexes that housed so many are rubble. So people used to living in Beirut must now be housed in the country side in tents. To these tents must be delivered food, water, blankets, and sanitary facilities. They have to deliver all this over a road net that has numerous blocks. This is not Hezbollah's area of expertise.

Then there is the military degradation of Hizbollah.

Hezbollah does not have the strength to bully around the Lebanese government like it did before. They very well could face isolation if they do not play their cards correctly. What could aid in this occurring would be tearing Shia Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri away from Hezbollah. Doing so probably won't be difficult. The threat alone of freezing his bank account filled with bloody money will get him singing a different tune. We'll see if other Shia leadership, like Hussein Husseini, are willing to speak a more moderate line.

You know the reason the Hizbollah may have demanded to keep their weapons is that they fear for their lives.

So what does all this have to do with the Cash Flow Jihad? There are estimates out there that Iran spent $4 to $6 billion on rockets and general military strength. Probably another equivalent amount on all the destroyed high rises. Then there are all the houses missing in the south. This is putting a huge strain on Iran's cash flow if it intends to keep the Lebanese Shia bought. If it doesn't keep them bought Hezbollah is going to have a huge problem on its hands.

Iran currently has oil income in the $30 to $45 billion range. And yet this is not enough to keep its population pacified. So it has choices to make. Immediate choices. Curtail its military program. Abandon Hizbollah. Accept increasing unrest in Iran.

Iran was reported to have withdrawn on the order of $35 billion in cash and gold from European banks, probably to avoid getting it embargoed by the US's efforts to squeeze the terror network's cash flow.


There is a huge demand for gold in Iran due to the people expecting a war momentarily.

This is the modern way of doing a blockade. Don't cut off the supply of goods by land and naval blockade (although the Israeli Naval blockade is helping short term by strangling Lebanon of fuel, food, and military resources), cut off the cash to buy the stuff. That makes Iran an instant credit risk. It pretty much has to pay cash for everything. This is not very efficient.

The Jihadis are getting strangled by the lack of bits on computer networks. Since bits are practically free it is the control of the networks that count. And who controls the networks? The Great Satan.

Blockade is a slow form of warfare, however, it slowly weakens and then kills the ability to resist. By creating such huge economic losses for Iran ( Syria is broke and full of refugees ) Israel has speeded up the action of the cash flow Jihad.

Update: 17 August '06 2345z

There are some excellent comments. I'm going to bring some of them forward a little later.

Update: 18 August '06 0511z

Commenter Adam said this about a Shimon Peres appearance on CSPAN:

Following some comments that Peres made tonight, I think I can articulate the core of that policy as "creating the conditions in which the enemy is destroyed by his own internal contradictions".

I amplify on that in You Say You Want a Revolution?

Ros made a long comment about unrest in Iran. Read it. Thanks Ros for your knowledge and insight.

Carol Herman reminds me of the $4.5 bn Lebanon lost when they they found out that except for a few intrepid souls, war zones are not attractive to most tourists.

Update: 18 August '06 1244z

Reuters reports that Hizbollah is handing out wads of cash to people who have lost their homes in the recent war in Lebanon. The cash is going to 15,000 families who have lost their homes and the amounts are reported to be $12,000 each.

I guess the decision has been made: hold the home front with more repression, hold Lebanon with cash. DNA India reports on a crackdown on satellite dishes in Tehran to prevent western cultural imperialism. Of course such crackdowns only make western culture more attractive. At least that is how it worked in the USSR. Say, what happened to them anyway? You never hear much about them these days.

Update: 18 August '06 1653z

Carl in Jerusalem thinks the money may be counterfeit.

Which reminds me that it's crackers to slip a rozzer the dropsy in snide.

Update: 20 August '06 0834z

Little Green Footballs discusses the counterfeiting story.

Update: 21 August '06 0353z

Reader Paul and I were exchanging e-mails and he got me looking at Iran's behavior re-military exercises and the destruction of satellite dishes. Well it got me thinking. And I came up with this:

I think they are comitted to some action they feel almost sure will start a war.

They have been promising fireworks on the 22nd. It is part of their war plan. Think of the time Oral Roberts went begging for money so that the Maker wouldn't call him. Evidently he got enough. Well the question here is: will I'm-a-nut-job get enough of what he wants? Or is it possible he will get too much. Olmert is weak so now he has to act super tough. I think the President of Iran looks best in earth tones. It is his alpha male color. Brown. Makes some kinds of stains almost invisible.

Israel is in no mood to cower or be trifled with. They think they just lost a war and they want revenge. A rematch. Any foe. The sooner the better. Their blood is up.

Think Genereal Grant in the Battle of the Wilderness. By most accounts he lost that battle. But Grant advanced and Lee retreated.

Update: 27 Aug '06 2328z

Captain's Quarters is of the opinion Hizballah lost.

Why is Iran still ruled by Islamic Fascists?

A friend of mine suggested I look up Ghazal Omid because of something he said on CNN. I did and this is what I found. An excellent piece on why with so much dissent in Iran it is still ruled by tyrants.

Hundreds of thousands of political prisoners and thousands of losses of life; why then has Iran not been liberated? Why the new blood of a recent political prisoner killed in Evin did not water the tree of freedom in Iran! In recent days, Akbar Mohamadi, 37, a former university student died in Evin prison, due to bodily injuries, after a nine day hunger strike. He has become a controversial subject among expatriate Iranian opposition. Iranians and non-Iranians alike mourn his death but, while his departure should have been the beacon of light all Iranians are waiting for, his heroic death was instead turned into a mockery of his brave act by the chauvinistic opposition who knew little about him when he was alive and has exploited his naivety for their own purposes.

The burning question of why Iran is not yet free, can perhaps answered here: Iranian’s future it is what we make of it. Until people understand that becoming an regime opponent is not just about having differences of opinion with the regime but requires working together toward a common goal of regime change, Iran will continue its regression to a medieval pariah, with nuclear capability, in the eyes of much of the civilized world. Quite frankly, maybe some Iranians both inside and outside Iran are not ready for change because they don’t portray themselves in the political game as willing to seize the opportunity to make the right move. If the so-called opposition were willing to put their own agenda and personal pride on the back burner and practice some of the slogans they shout at their meetings, we wouldn’t still be writing about the future of Iran nearly three decades after the Mullahs came to power.

It is the same old same old. The striving for power even in a so far unsuccessful political movement takes precedence over success.

Instapundit notes the same kind of factionalism in the Libertarian Party.

Ben Franklin put it well during the American Revolutiion. "We must all hang together or most certainly, we will all hang separately".

Update: 16 Aug '06 0232z

Franklin quote corrected by reader Karridine.

Grim: Killing Children

Grim over at Black Five has posted a truly horrific piece on the value of killing children.

You are not going to like this.

On the demonstrable virtues of not caring if children die, on hardening your mind for war, and other things we can no longer avoid discussing.

Beware that you are ready before you pass this seal.

Let us begin with a debate between a peaceful, gentle soul, and me. The topic could be Israel's war, or ours in Iraq, or -- if they have the heart for it -- the one to come.

The gentle soul -- how I respect her! -- will begin by pointing out how many innocents have died in the recent wars, and especially the children, who are the most obviously innocent. She will point out figures for Iraq, for Afghanistan, for Lebanon, and ask: "How can you justify this? These poor children, who might have been good men, good women, lain in the cold earth?"

It is a very hard piece to read. Especially for those with children.

Here is a comment I left at Winds of Change:

I have been on the killing floor. I have helped butcher 2,000 hogs a day. Chain mail on my left hand razor sharp knife (which I kept sharp myself) in my right.

My dad ran a butcher shop in an old fashioned (Dobie Gillis) grocery store he owned.

If you are not willing to butcher the meat you shouldn't be eating it is my philosophy. That includes chicken and fish.

Andy L., Every perpetrator of war feels morally justified, so that is no help.

My criteria is: has liberty been advanced.

For instance - when we allowed the North Vietnamese to defeat the South (when Congress refused its support) did the cause of liberty advance or retreat?

What ever you say about the running of the war when America abandoned its ally - liberty retreated. The south may have had bad government. The north was much much worse.

Some times these judgements can't be made until long after the war. Thus, while in war you have to rely on promises and track record.

BTW I'm a US Navy vet so I have done my time in those killing fields as well.

The worst blood I have on my hands is supporting the Congress that abandoned the South Vietnamese. Never again.

I'd be more than happy to respond to any comments my readers may have.

Hat tip: Winds of Change

Getting Ready for Round 2

The Debka File reports (caveat - half the time they are spectacularly right - half the time they are spectacularly wrong) that Hizbollah is moving every last man it can scrape up to the south. This fits in with other reports I had heard of people streaming south. Who would go south before Hizbollah and Israel had totally disengaged I wondered? So this report makes sense.

...the swelling numbers of returning Hizballah fighters with their families are jamming the roads south – also blocking the deployment of the 15,000-strong Lebanese force ordered by UN SC resolution 1701 to take over the South and disarm Hizballah.

The Hizballah are moving back into their still undamaged bunkers and fortified civilian dwellings opposite the Israeli border.

Therefore, while thousands of displaced people in Israel and Lebanon headed back to their ravaged homes, DEBKAfile’s military sources report trepidation about the durability of the ceasefire which Israel declared Monday morning. Everyone is talking about the inevitability of a second round.

BTW I thought of the title before reading the report. So I guess everyone is talking about it.

The head of UN forces in Lebanon is calling for help

PARIS (AP) -- The head of the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon said Monday he wants reinforcements "as soon as possible," and warned that the situation in the Middle East remains fragile.

French Maj. Gen. Alain Pellegrini, who heads the 2,000-member UNIFIL force in southern Lebanon, told The Associated Press in a telephone interview that the region remains vulnerable to "a provocation, or a stray act, that could undermine everything."

"They need to arrive as quickly as possible," Pellegrini said of the promised new international force for south Lebanon. "But before that, there is something that can be done quickly -- a deployment of the Lebanese army," he added.

I don't see how something that will never happen can be done quickly. Perhaps I lack a French sense of humor.

Hezbollah says it will not disarm or go north. Either one of those possibilities is a requirement for the Lebanese Army to deploy.

Hizbullah announced that it objects to withdrawing from area south of the Litani River and to disarming despite UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

These statements were made by Hizbullah member of the Lebanese Parliament and member of the policy office of the Shiite militia, Hassan Fadlallah in an interview with al-Jazeera.

According to Fadlallah, the terror group refuses to withdraw from areas south of the Litani River due to the fact that its members are residents of south Lebanon. As to the disarmament issue, the organization claims it is not being discussed within or outside the Lebanese government.

No one but Israel wishes to be the instrument of Hezbollah disarmament.

According to Debka Files Iran is none too happy about the results so far from Hizbollah's fabulous fighting machine.

While the damage caused Israel’s military reputation tops Western assessments of the Lebanon war, DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report an entirely different perception taking hold in ruling circles in Tehran.

After UN Security Council resolution 1701 calling for a truce was carried Friday, Aug. 11, the heads of the regime received two separate evaluations of the situation in Lebanon – one from Iran’s foreign ministry and one from its supreme national security council. Both were bleak: their compilers were concerned that Iran had been manipulatively robbed of its primary deterrent asset ahead of a probable nuclear confrontation with the United States and Israel.

While the foreign ministry report highlighted the negative aspects of the UN resolution, the council’s document complained that Hizballah squandered thousands of rockets – either by firing them into Israel or having them destroyed by the Israeli air force.

The writer of this report is furious over the waste of Iran’s most important military investment in Lebanon merely for the sake of a conflict with Israeli over two kidnapped soldiers.

It took Iran two decades to build up Hizballah’s rocket inventory.

DEBKAfile’s sources estimate that Hizballah’s adventure wiped out most of the vast sum of $4-6 bn the Iranian treasury sunk into building its military strength. The organization was meant to be strong and effective enough to provide Iran with a formidable deterrent to Israel embarking on a military operation to destroy the Islamic regime’s nuclear infrastructure.

This fits in with something I published early in the war. Spoiler Attack

(more to come)

Kofi: UN Deployment Possibly Months Away

Secretary General of the UN Kofi Annan says:

JERUSALEM (AP)--U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Tuesday that while the international community was working to put together a fortified U.N. peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon as quickly as possible, deployment could take "weeks or months."

Speaking in an interview with Israel's Channel Two TV taped earlier in the day in New York, Annan added that the beefed-up 15,000 strong Unifil force wouldn't be tasked with disarming the Lebanese Hezbollah militia.

"The Unifil force will help the government of Lebanon to do the job, but it is not directly in the mandate of the Unifil force," he said.

So far the Lebanese Government is not up to the job. In fact it appears theydo not want the job.

(08-16) 04:00 PDT Beirut -- Hezbollah refused to disarm and withdraw its fighters from the battle-scarred hills along the border with Israel Tuesday, threatening to delay deployment of the Lebanese army and endangering a fragile cease-fire.

The makings of a compromise, however, emerged from all-day meetings in Beirut, according to senior officials involved in the negotiations, and Prime Minister Fuad Saniora scheduled a Cabinet session today for what he hoped would be formal approval of the deal. Hezbollah implied it would be willing to pull back its fighters and weapons in exchange for a promise from the Lebanese army not to probe too carefully for underground bunkers and weapons caches, the officials said.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah insists that any disarmament of his militia -- even in the border area -- should be handled in longer-term discussions within the Lebanese government, according to government ministers. But the Lebanese army, backed by key political leaders, refused to send troops into the just-becalmed battle zone until Hezbollah's missiles, rockets and other weapons were taken north of the Litani River, the ministers said.

Now here is the interesting bit. There is no UN force. None. Nada. Zip. It was a fiction.

U.N. officials in New York continued to haggle Tuesday over the mandate and operational rules of the international troops in southern Lebanon, including whether they would have the ability to detain or fire upon suspected Hezbollah fighters engaged in warfare or in gun running.

Some countries have said they prefer a monitoring role, while others seek more robust rules of engagement, said a U.N. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Among the nations said to be considering taking part are France, Indonesia, Italy and Malaysia.

Captain's Quarters as usual has some interesting thoughts on the matter.

None of us who follow the UN and Kofi Annan experienced any sort of surprise when he demurred from actually enforcing a Security Council resolution. His insistence that the UN has no real interest in the question of Hezbollah disarmament may seem shocking, since the Security Council has now twice demanded it, but it comes as a piece to the record of UN peacekeeping under his regime, first as the head of peacekeeping and now as Secretary-General. UN forces sent to keep "peace" have almost without exception fled from terrorists and genocidists, only standing firm when under NATO or US/UK command.

Many saw UNSCR 1701 as a defeat for Israel, because of this obvious deficiency and the use of the discredited UNIFIL force for the mission. However, Israel would not quietly allow Annan and Siniora to defeat them where Hezbollah failed. Politically, the Olmert government cannot accept the return of an armed Hezbollah organization to the sub-Litani, a fact that even the terminally dense Annan should have recognized.

Annan also miscalculated the Israeli impulse for a cessation of hostilities. He was under the impression that Israel had tired of the military option, but in reality Israel won everything it wanted in the action, especially under the terms of 1701. The Israelis still had plenty of will left to fight, but with the exception of pushing into the Bekaa, a further incursion past the Litani would have produced rapidly diminishing results. The Israelis want a sovereign Lebanese government to take responsibility for its own territory, and do not want to conduct another long occupation based on the lack of a partner in Beirut.

Israeli troops may reach the Bekaa in force yet.

Why Did Hizbollah Surrender?

By surrendering (giving up the fight) Hizbollah drove Israel out of Lebanon. Had they kept fighting Israel would have stayed and kept fighting too. This is a strange way to win wars. Hizbollah's claim to fame (driving the Israelis out of Lebanon in 2000) was strengthened by its virtual surrender.

Commanders of the Israeli Army are surprised by this behavior.

The IDF, a senior officer said Tuesday, was surprised that Hizbullah was abiding by the cease-fire. "We predicted that Hizbullah wouldn't keep its side of the agreement and that fighting would start again," the officer said.

However, the Israelis are still itching for a fight.

The IDF will have to resume operations in Lebanon if the expanded United Nations force being assembled does not fulfill its obligation to dismantle Hizbullah, an official in the Prime Minister's Office warned on Tuesday.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah reportedly reached a deal allowing Hizbullah to keep its weapons but refrain from exhibiting them in public. Israeli officials called the arrangement a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which passed over the weekend and was approved on Sunday by the cabinet.

"The resolution is clear that Hizbullah needs to be removed from the border area, embargoed and dismantled," the official said. "If the resolution is not implemented, we will have to take action to prevent the rearming of Hizbullah. I don't think backtracking will serve any useful purpose. There has to be pressure on Hizbullah to disarm or there will have to be another round."

One minor point. The requirement for Hizbollah disarmament is actually part of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. Which was included in 1701.

I think Hizbollah was on its last legs as a military force. So they had to give up the fight to remain a viable political force in Lebanon. In fact their surrender has politically strengthened them.

Annan angered Israeli officials when he told Channel 2 on Tuesday that "dismantling Hizbullah is not the direct mandate of the UN," which could only help Lebanon disarm the organization. Annan upset officials further when he said that deploying international forces in Lebanon would take "weeks or months," and not days as expected.

Israeli officials said the IDF would not complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon until the international force was deployed - even if it took months - to prevent a vacuum in Lebanon that could endanger Israeli civilians. An official in the Prime Minister's Office accused Annan of having an anti-Israel agenda.

No surprise there.

What are Lebanese blogs saying?

And there we go again. Just like how the national dialogue rounds kept on being postponed until all hell broke loose, now we're witnessing a postponement upon postponement of the Cabinet meeting since the Cabinet ministers met last when they agreed to UNSCR 1701, with some reservations (ma3 ba3d al-tahaffouzat). It's becoming clear that "some reservations" is not to be dismissed of, it's what will make and break the Lebanese state's will.

Add the second consecutive postponement of the Cabinet meeting with what Syrian President Assad said today, and you'll start to sense bleakness on the horizons.

President Assad basically claimed Hizbullah victorious and added that some political factions in Lebanon, namely the March 14 coalition, have encouraged Israel to attack Lebanon to disarm Hizbullah and that this coalition is the same one that wanted to sign a peace treaty with Israel back in 17th May of 1982 and so they bear responsibility for their country's destruction. He also said that the Lebanese who want to disarm Hizbullah have failed and their fall is near.

Some of the Lebanese commenters think that the purpose of this stalling is to break the Lebanese Government's will so that Hizbollah can take over. Straight out of Lennin's play book.

Another Lebanese blogger has this to say:

I did not expect SG of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah to be capable of doing it with such ease but he nively gave a basic lesson of politics to the some politicians in Lebanon, during his latest speech yesterday.

His acute analysis of the current "state of the state" is remarkable in terms of its awareness of history (something Lebanese are profoundly in denial of). what he basically said is how can the Khezballah give back their weapons when there is no party to whom they could give their weapons. The Lebanese State? controlled by who? The "majority" that is agitating for disarmament when Israeli soldiers are still performing last-minute murderous operations? Can't these people realize what's at stake here? Giving back Hezbollah's weapons right now is akin to telling Israel "Mission accomplished".

Well yeah. The alternative of course is that Israel will come back to enforce 1559. Olmert badly needs a victory to stay in power. Israeli and Lebanese politcs may very well determine the next moves. Anti-Clausewitz (politics is war by other means) may very well give way to Clausewitz (war is politics by other means).

Update: 16 August '06 1005z

The Ouwet Front, a Lebanese blog has this to say.

...Hezbollah is rushing to reconstruct houses before the government so it can fortify its positions yet again and keep controlling the regions.

Iran is celebrating the victory more than Shiites in Lebanon are, with posters and festivities and speeches and a transport cost-free day for everyone.

I really urge Jumblatt, Geagea and other leaders to attack fiercly Hezbollah, Syria and Iran and if possible start preparing for a second 14th of March, one that ll remove all traces of Syrian and Iranian agents in Lebanon and pave the way for a strong united sovereign Lebanon.

The Front has a number of other interesting posts. Like Bashar el Assad … Fuck Yourself !

Bliss Street Journal thinks Hizbollah will still be a problem for Lebanon. Right now.

Hizbullah will continue to consolidate its "victory" in southern Lebanon, with Hassan Nasrallah's order for the Shi'a to return to their homes as the first step in this process, DebkaFile reports. * As such, Hizbullah becomes the guarantor of its own destiny in southern Lebanon, reacquires its state within a state, and becomes "host" to the following "guests":

- One Lebanese Army, 15,000 members
- One enhanced UNIFIL force without Chapter 7 mandate, 15,000 members
- All non-Shiite residents of southern Lebanon
- Unspecified numbers of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps
- Unspecified numbers of Syrian mukhabarat.

Hassan Nasrallah has the next chapter of this adventure all planned out - the battle may have been tough, but he is still the sheriff in town. The only thing that he has agreed to do as part of any compromise is to be a good host and not visibly show off his weapons to his guests. His fighters are on their way back to acquire and rebuild their former positions that the IDF bulldozed and blew up, and at least given the flow of events of the past two days, Nasrallah appears to be attempting to go back to the status quo ante.

He concludes with:

No need to mention that Lebanon and Hizbullah have already violated U.N. Resolution 1701 even before the ink had dried on the signatures. Israel needs little convincing that its own Fallujah II is a strategic inevitability.

There are links in his text to the Debka Report on the situation. Debka says that Hizbollah will topple the Lebanese Government if it keeps refering to Hizbollah disarmament as required by UNSCR 1559.

Israel says:

In a briefing to members of the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee touring the north, Major General Adam explained the phases in the upcoming IDF withdrawal from Lebanon. According to Adam, troops will start leaving Lebanon in the coming days, with areas being vacated by the army handed over to UN forces, which will in turn hand them over to the Lebanese army.

Adam made it clear that the IDF will not be leaving any territories before international forces assume responsibility over them. However, as noted above, he expressed worries that Hizbullah terrorists would be able to return to southern Lebanon as soldiers in the Lebanese army.

Kofi Annan says it may take months for UN troops to deploy.

This war is not over.

Update: 27 Aug '06 2328z

Captain's Quarters is of the opinion Hizballah lost.

Britain Surrenders

Reader Paul Flett suggested I have a look at this article from Chronicles, published by The Rockford Institude, whose director Tom Fleming is an acquaintance of mine.

The article by Srdja Trifkovic discusses Britain's surrender to an Islamic Fifth Column.

The Islamic terrorist plot to blow up ten airliners en route from Great Britain to the United States is surprising only in one respect: It makes no sense for the Muslim diaspora in Europe to carry out terrorist acts since they can have Europe—the whole of Western Europe, anyway—if they play their hand right in the next 20-30 years. Blowing up airliners, or London Underground trains, is bad for the cause. It is not directed from “Islam Central”; it is literally “home-grown.”

Only a non-Chronicles reader will be puzzled by the fact that “mainstream” media all over the Western world have been reluctant to state three key facts about the British plot:

1. The 24 plotters arrested thus far are all Muslims;

2. 22 of them are UK-born Pakistanis, and two are British converts to Islam;

3. The plotters were motivated by Islam—by Muhammad’s faith as such, and not by some allegedly aberrant variety of the creed.

We’ve seen this same reluctance to name names with the rioting “youths” in France last fall. The ongoing scenario is becoming a tad tedious: (1) a bunch of murderously minded jihadists are arrested and accused of terrorist intent; (2) local Muslim “community activists” and selcted non-Muslim neighbors respond with a mix of indignation and denial, with the assurances of the suspects’ impeccable character, and accusations of anti-Muslim bias; (3) non-Muslim politicos go out of their way to reassure the Muslim community that it is loved and appreciated, and not in any way associated with the terrorists. It’s déjà vu all over again.

He goes on to discuss how the British multi-cultural left (i.e. most of the country) has surrendered to the Islamic Fascists. Not totally, not all at once. Just a slice at a time.

A generation later mosques and Islamic centers have multiplied all over Britain and provide the backbone to terrorist support network. The Home Office approved visas to Muslim clerics, primarily from Pakistan, sympathetic to the radicals. Mosques provide venues for the faithful “to hail Osama bin Laden as a hero and to evoke the ‘positive outcomes’ of the attacks in New York and Washington.”

The way in which the war against terrorism is waged in today’s Downing Street resembles the atmosphere at Rastenburg in 1944. With the Blairites in charge T.S. Eliot may yet be proved right in his warning that the West would end, “not with a bang but a whimper.” Some decades earlier, in 1899, 26 year old Winston Churchill expressed hope “that if evil days should come upon our own country, and the last army which a collapsing Empire could interpose between London and the invader were dissolving in rout and ruin, that there would be some—even in these modern days—who would not care to accustom themselves to a new order of things and tamely survive the disaster.”

Even Churchill’s precience could not have envisaged the possibility that “the invader” would have his friends and allies at No. 10, Downing Street, and London’s County Hall. The reality is absurd and the principals involved are abnormal. Only when Blair, Livingstone & Co. are permanently ousted will it become possible for Britain to defend herself, and to be herself once again.

I think he misunderstands the problem. It is not the government, it is the people. The people do not want to be disturbed in their pursuits or from their social welfare state. Why is that? I give the answer in Socialism Kills.

Ill Gotten Gains

Peter Guither of Drug War Rant is discussing how drug prohibition finances Islamic Fascism. He excerpts this from the Congressional Quarterly:

Just as Capone profiteered using the illegal status of alcohol during Prohibition, Angell argues, terror groups are able to realize enormous profits because of the artificially high prices of illicit drugs today. The exhibit's DEA sponsors are "hiding the fact that it is their prohibitionist policy that has allowed terrorists to make money off drugs," he says. He says his group plans to dispatch members to the exhibit throughout its four-month run to distribute leaflets promoting a rival online exhibit created by Pete Guither, who writes the blog DrugWarRant.com.

Peter then quotes a DEA representative:

DEA spokesman David Ausiello says that, while the exhibit does make use of such specific cases [terrorist drug connections], its primary message is much broader: "We are up against a formidable enemy that is well-funded with money that comes from drugs," he says. "We have to take away their means to make money."

He then comments:

Yep. And there's one way to do that. End prohibition, and the criminals lose their source of funding. (Of course, so does the DEA.)

Thanks for helping us make our point, David.

Think of how much more secure we would be if we quit wasting so much money on this boondoggle and put all those trained agents to work tracking terrorist plots.

I have been saying this since right after 9/11. It bears repeating until our government gets wise.

Especially since I think that the fight against drugs is a fight against a phantom menace. Is Addiction Real? We have more than enough real menaces to deal with without wasting resources on phantom menaces.

Another Wishful Thinker

Noah Pollak of National Review indulges in some wishful thinking about the results in Lebanon. As I am prone to such wishful thinking myself, I thought a look at another wishful thinker might be interesting.

Jerusalem—To most Israelis, supporters of Israel, and especially to the IDF soldiers I spoke to on the border over the past few days, the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah that recently went into effect is viewed as a cruel indignity, a dangerous projection of Israeli weakness and equivocation, and a plucking of defeat from the jaws of victory. These were my thoughts as well. The IDF was inflicting heavy, lopsided — one might even say disproportionate — damage on Hezbollah men and materiel. Stopping the war seems inexplicable, other than as an expression of total Western cravenness and appeasement to Islamic radicalism.

That is how I see it too.

But people like John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, have a proven track record of sobriety in these matters. It’s difficult to believe that Bolton would have thrown United States support behind a patently unwise agreement, or that Israel would have agreed to a resolution thoroughly harmful to its own interests. So herewith, in what may rightfully be construed as an exercise in wishful thinking, is an alternative explanation for U.S. and Israeli acquiescence to the U.N. cease-fire resolution.

Mr. Pollak discusses the oil weapon which he thinks is the most potent arrow in the Arab quiver. He then goes on to say:

The heart of the strategic conundrum thus becomes this salient fact: If the U.S. is to strike Iran, Israel must be deterred from being provoked into the conflict and jeopardizing the abstention of other Arab states from interference in the clean execution of the mission and its aftermath. Because Iran, in conventional terms, is largely defenseless against an American bombing campaign, Iran’s first objective upon being attacked will be to draw Israel into the conflict. This is almost the exact same scenario as in the first Gulf War, and then it took intense diplomatic pressure to prevent Israel from retaliating against Iraq for its repeated missile attacks. It is almost unthinkable that Israel could be called upon again to summon such self-restraint.

The way Iran would drag Israel into the war and dramatically complicate the U.S. mission would be through Hezbollah, which until recently was firmly entrenched on Israel’s northern border, fully armed and spoiling for a fight. Thus, even given Israel’s curtailed and incomplete war against Hezbollah, the U.S.’s — and arguably, Israel’s — primary objective in the conflict has been accomplished: creating a state of affairs in which Iran cannot use Hezbollah to drag Israel into the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, incite Arab opposition to the U.S., and threaten a global energy crisis. The partial war against Hezbollah has accomplished an important additional objective: what was previously a looming unknown — Hezbollah’s military capability on Israel’s northern border — has been engaged, partially destroyed, and is now a known quantity.

That is a definite advantage if your calculations are strategic.

But why stop Israel now? Wouldn’t all of the benefits to the American-Israeli strategic position be even further solidified by a more complete destruction of Hezbollah? Perhaps. But there are complications: One is the unrest the conflict is causing in Iraq. The U.S. doesn't need Muqtada al-Sadr to feel any more emboldened than he already does. Moreover, American pressure on Israel to stop the war is likely a concession to Europe and the U.N. in advance of needing (or believing to need) those alliances to be healthy in anticipation of the Iran confrontation. Also, the Cedar Revolution and the partial wresting of Syria out of Lebanon are two of the most tangible victories of the Bush administration’s Middle East democratization project. A continued Israeli assault on Lebanon that is seen by Lebanon’s ostensibly pro-Western Christians, Druze, and Sunnis as being needless American-approved destruction threatens the sympathies of the nascent Lebanese moderates. In particular, France retains some prestige in Lebanon and can be useful in preventing the reversal of U.S. accomplishments there. Pressuring Israel is a way to give the Europeans and the U.N. something they want now in return for something the U.S. wants later, which is a basic level of unity and fortitude in dealing with Iran.

Depending on France and the UN seems like a rather weak position. They have not been notably helpful in the past. In fact the UN has been shown to be objectively a collaborator with the Hizbollah.

Finally, one of the most surprising occurrences in the past month was the hostility expressed by the Sunni Arab world to Shia Hezbollah’s provocation. The importance of this should not be understated: Arab regimes like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia actually publicly condemned other Arabs who were fighting against Israel. Why? Because the Sunni regimes are worried about the ascendance of a Shia alliance comprised of Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran that could manipulate the region with proxy terrorist armies (such as Hezbollah) operating under the safety of an Iranian nuclear umbrella.

Yes. In that respect new alliances have been formed for the next phase of the war.

Sober-minded observers are right to be wary of a new flight of fancy emanating from the United Nations, especially a U.N. led by the venal and treacherous Kofi Annan. The inclusion in the ceasefire deal of an open-ended, unrestricted weapons-inspections regime in Lebanon with pre-approved sanctions imposed on any country caught re-supplying Hezbollah would have been an important indication of seriousness. The failure to articulate such a premeditated penalty is a further indication to our enemies that the Western diplomatic community is devoted to toothless half-measures. The ceasefire has damaged Israeli morale, prevented a more thorough destruction of Hezbollah, and in the short term spared Syria and Iran from the humiliation of seeing their proxy military dismantled. But — and this again may be wishful thinking — it also may be tangible evidence that the Bush administration is taking Iran’s nuclear ambitions seriously.

I'm not so sure about the last. America has dithered and faltered in its support of the Iranian people and in confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions.

And finally there is still 22 August to worry about.

Israel Surrenders

The Jerusalem Post is reporting that the Defence Minister of Israel Amir Peretz is trying to spin defeat into opportunity.

The conflict with Hizbullah may have created a new opportunity for renewed dialogue with the Palestinians, and potentially also with Syria, Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Tuesday afternoon.

The more you are willing to surrender, the easier it is to get terms. However, some opposition politicians are not easily spun.

In response to this statement, Israel Beiteinu head Avigdor Lieberman said that Peretz was suffering from a failure to acknowledge reality.

"It is just this kind of obliviousness to reality that brought the country to the present conflict," Lieberman said.

"After Assad announced that the Golan Heights would be liberated by Syrian soldiers and that Hizbullah won the conflict, Peretz's call for negotiations with Syria will be received as a weakness and an invitation for another attack," he said. "It is preferable that the defense minister focus on preparing the army for the next unavoidable conflict rather than unrealistic wishful thinking."

What is Assad saying?

Syrian President Bashar Assad said his country is prepared for any war that may break out with Israel , adding that he is convinced that the chances for peace have decreased and that “the Golan Heights will be liberated by Syria.”

In a special interview with Egyptian newspaper Al-Osboa, Assad said “if Israel launches a war against Syria, it will pay a heavy price.”

I don't think that he means a negotiated return when he talks about "liberation".

In Iran the celebrations are on.

Iranians find cause for celebration. Upwards of 110 ambulances and mobile intensive care units rode through the center of Tehran Tuesday morning as a sign of solidarity with the Lebanese people, as reported by the Iranian news agency, Fars. Ambulance teams continued driving toward the mosque of Tehran University in order to show their willingness to help the Lebanese wounded in the past month.

Already Monday night thousands of Iranians took to the streets in celebration of what they defined as a Shiite and Hizbullah victory over the Zionist regime. In the streets of Iran , believers took advantage of the evening prayers to praise the Lebanese nation on Hizbullah's victory.

This is a major defeat for the West, equivalent to the fall of France in 1940, Iran and Syria will be emboldened to further their interests through war and violence.

According to the head of field operations in the organization, Safar-Ali Nahari-Kazian, "following the establishment of the ceasefire in Lebanon, a new phase of aid to Lebanon is starting, and beside the airplane, 26 ambulances will be transferred to Lebanon on trucks by land."

I believe airplanes and ambulances will not be the only aid forthcoming. I believe they will also make up for Hizbollahs lack of anti-aircraft weapons. The next fight is going to be much harder. Things will be getting much worse before they get better. Sadly.

Strategic Victory

A piece of paper from the UN is not a strategic victory. Taking Damascus is a strategic victory.

Mopping Up

So far in this war on Islamic Fascism we are doing a fair job of mopping up. Unfortunately mopping up is not going to fix a broken water main. As long as the pumps keep running we could be mopping up forever. What is needed is to turn off the pumps.

Unfortunately the government of Israel had no stomach for dealing with the local valve for the pump, Syria. In addition America hasn't had the stomach for dealing with the pumping station (not the only one), Iran.

Had Israel had the nerve to attack Syria's vital interest in Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, Syria might have either been drawn into the war or weakened. A reduction of Syrian power might have drawn in Iran. We can't tell for sure.

What we can tell is that there are a lot of Israelis very unhappy with the government. Besides internet action ( covered in Post Mortem ) the people have taken to the streets of Israel. A flash mob assembled in Tel Aviv:

An anti-ceasefire rally was held Monday evening at Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square.

The rally was organized by internet surfers who, in chat rooms, called on people to participate. A few dozen people arrived and called on the government to resume the fighting in Lebanon until the abducted are released.

“We felt the need to protest not only via the internet,” Ariela, one of the rally’s organizers, said. “This protest emanate from the talkbacks (to internet articles). Talkbacks are our channels of rage.”

A few dozen people is not enough to move a government, but these things have a way of growing. Viral marketing its called.

“We are opposed to the surrender agreement,” she said. “The next war is right around the corner. We were hesitant. The policy was hesitant and there was no true will to fight among the decision-makers.”

Boaz Arad, who owns a software company, said “we believe that in inviting an international force to protect us we are showing that we cannot protect ourselves; in this manner we are losing our status as a strategic asset to elements that need a strong Israel in the Middle East.

Mr. Arad sure got that one right.

Brian Blondy, 25, from Detroit and David Perl, 27, from Frankfurt, came to Israel plan to volunteer to the IDF.

“We believe the ceasefire agreement should have included first and foremost the disarming of Hizbullah and sanctions against Iran and Syria,” Blondy said. “Israel should have thought two steps ahead – it should have annihilated Hizbullah so it would think twice before attacking us again; but this didn’t happen."

When the man on the street understands the strategic failure, you have to ask yourself, why do our leaders appear to be sleepwalking?

There is always the possibility of a deeper game going on, but the folks running the show really make it hard to believe. This is terrible for morale. Of all the components necessary for fighting a war, morale is the most critical. The best weapons in the world are useless if the hands holding them go slack.

Defeat in battle is not a permanent set back where the will to win exists. Churchill and Roosevelt showed this in WW2. So where are the great men we need? Sadly they do not appear to be in evidence.

Bush and Olmert have the will to fight. In America at least this is a big improvement over past performance. Even so, without the will to win, the will to fight doesn't count for much. What we need is not a show of force. What we need is an implacable will to victory. We cannot scare our enemies. They must be beaten.

Hizbollah's Current Situation

They are losing the Propaganda War and their allies in big media have taken a serious hit.

They are degraded militarily.

Without the Lebanese Army deployement, the UN is not coming to their rescue. Which is another propaganda loss.

The Israeli Army has time to rest and refit and prepare for its next moves. Hizbollah, like all troops manning fortifications, is stuck in place. Why can't they put on their civilian dress and just take a vacation for a while? Because the Israeli Army is not predictable. They could start up under any provocation.

However, sometimes a tactical defeat is a strategic victory. It has happened. The Battle of the Coral Sea was considered a tactical defeat for the US but a strategic defeat for Japan.

In this case, Hizbollah has accomplished its goal. It is still in the field. Israel did not accomplish its goal: the eradication and disarming of Hizbollah.

The big winners in all this? Syria and Iran. Though backers of this war they got out of it untouched.

The Ball is in Lebanon's Court

It is now up to the Lebanese Government to do its part in implimenting UN 1701.

"The Lebanese army is readying itself along the Litani to cross the river in 48 or 72 hours," Marwan Hamade said on Europe-1 radio.

These kinds of manuvers are always dangerous, even when done within a unified command. The reason is that friendly troops not in contact may mistake each other for the enemy. The technical term for such self inflicted wounds is "fratricide". When they are done with allies the danger goes up. There are fewer co-ordination and communications channels available. When a neutral party comes in the channels are further reduced. It may take more than 72 hours just for liason officers to be exchanged. The officers will be from the headquarters of each local contingent to minimize miscommunication. Having worked together the officers of a headquarters, will have a common ground for the meaning of each communication. This lowers the possibility of mistakes, it does not eliminate the possibility.

It will then be flanked by "the first contingents of an international force," he added, likely from France, Turkey, Spain and Italy. He did not give a timeframe.

The question then is the actual positioning of the forces involved. Alternating Lebanese forces with UN forces would provide the best backbone for the Lebanese Army. Alternatively, holding UN forces in reserve would probably be acceptable. In the first instance co-ordination without compatible communications equipment will be difficult. Especially since the UN forces are a hodge poge. Then there are the additional language difficulties. Words that sound the same in different languages don't always have identical military meanings.I think France and Italy are definitely in at this time. Currently no mention of Turkey. Portugal, Finland, Spain, Australia, Canada, Malaysia and Indonesia may also join the force. This is quite a mess. Command and control will be difficult under ordinary circumstances. If significant fighting starts breakdowns are almost inevitable. This is definitely not a robust fighting force.

Getting back to how the UN and Lebanese army might deploy, if the two separate armies are arranged so that they flank each other that lowers the liason problem. The difficulty then is that if the troops of the two armies are greatly different in capabilities the weaker force is more likely to draw attacks in an effort to break the union of the two armies at the joint.

He [Marwan Hamade ed.] spoke shortly after a UN-imposed cease-fire went into effect across the region, halting a month of fighting.

But implementation of the resolution was in question after the Lebanese Cabinet on Sunday indefinitely postponed a crucial meeting dealing with plans for the deployment. Lebanese media reported that the Cabinet was sharply divided over demands that Hizbullah surrender its weapons in the south.

Hamade said the Lebanese government would try Monday to find a "formula" for implementing the resolution.

Lebanon's industry minister, Pierre Jemayel, a member of a majority anti-Syrian bloc in parliament, told Al-Siyassah daily, "Hizbullah has to deliver its weapons to the Lebanese army, and its light weapons to the police."

Do you think Hizbollah will agree to this? I don't. That could create a situation where Hizbollah will attack the Lebanese Army. With liasons in place from the Israeli Army that could create a very interesting situation. It is possible that an alliance could be formed of at minimum a temporary nature.

A Turkish news source reports:

"I would like to see people beginning to deploy by the end of the week, early next week -- elements of the force, the headquarters," said Solana.

A senior Israeli government official said he did not expect the deployment to start for at least two weeks.

So Hizbollah will have time to contemplate its future.

Another look at internal dissention in the Lebanese Cabinent:

Lebanon's ambassador to the UN said that his government would not use force to ensure the dismantling of Hizbullah, sources said early Monday morning.

He claimed that Hizbullah would independently be responsible for leaving south Lebanon. "We could have completed a cease-fire by Sunday morning, but Israel insisted on destroying the essence of Lebanon," the ambassador commented while being interviewed by CNN.

Earlier, another Lebanese cabinet minister said that the Lebanese army would not deploy in southen Lebanon if Hizbullah retains its weapons.

"The army will not deploy in the south unless there are no arms in the south except those of a legitimate military force and UNIFIL," the minister said.

Hizbullah, however, has resisted calls to disarm and its refusal to follow through threatened the deal.

A top aide to Prime Minister Fuad Saniora said the cabinet meeting had been indefinitely postponed but would give no reason.

No reason. I do think one or two clues have been left been left, however.

I might note for those who love humor that the above article was titled: 'LAF to deploy in South within 72 hours'

With no Lebanese Army to deploy alongside, the UN Peace Keepers have no mandate.

This UN resolution is full of traps for Hizbollah.

I think this a great example of anti-Clauswitz. Politics is war by other means.

Half Time

The guns have gone silent. The rockets haved stopped raining on Israel. For now the cease fire which began at 0500 GMT (the time zone I use for this blog) appears to be mostly holding. Lets look at the some news reports and see if we can tell what might happen next.

Reuters is reporting

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Heavy fighting in southern Lebanon stopped abruptly on Monday after a U.N.-brokered truce came into effect, but reports that Israeli troops killed a Hizbollah guerrilla underlined the fragility of the truce.

The Hezbollah guy was reportedly attacking Israeli forces. How nice of Reuters to leave that out of the lead. They do get to it in the second paragraph. Which for Reuters is more balanced than their usual spin.

Army Radio and the Haaretz newspaper's Web site said the Hizbollah fighter was shot dead after he opened fire on Israeli troops in southwest Lebanon. It was the first reported clash since the ceasefire began.

Here is the first fly in the ointment.

Thousands of Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, and they are not expected to withdraw fully until an international peacekeeping force arrives alongside Lebanese troops.

So far the Lebanese cabinent has been unable to agree on a plan for the Lebanese forces to deploy. A cabinent meeting to resolve the issues (deployment, disarming Hizbollah) is expcted today or tomorrow.

Israel said its ban on unauthorised traffic in southern Lebanon remained in place, and that any vehicles on the roads risked attack. An air and sea blockade of Lebanon would also continue, a military source said.

The Israeli armed forces then are continuing the blockade to keep Hizbollah from rearming as provided for in UN resolution 1701.

Under a U.N. Security Council resolution adopted on Friday, Israeli forces must start to withdraw as around 30,000 foreign peacekeepers and Lebanese soldiers deploy in the south. Hizbollah must also pull its fighters out of southern Lebanon.

Hizbollah has said it accepts the U.N. resolution although it regards some aspects of it as unjust. The group has said it will cooperate with the peacekeeping force and Lebanese troops that deploy in the south, but has not said whether it will pull out its forces from the area south of the Litani river.

Israel says it would be entitled under the U.N. resolution to use force to prevent Hizbollah from rearming and to clear guerrilla positions even after the truce took effect.

Western diplomats and U.N. officials said they feared Israel's broad definition of "defensive" actions could lead to a resurgence in large-scale fighting and prevent the swift deployment of the U.N. troops, likely to be led by France.

The truce has not resolved many key issues including the fate of the two captured Israeli soldiers, the issue of whether Hizbollah will disarm and the status of the Shebaa Farms area which is claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel.

I think that the issue of Hizbollah disarmament is the second major fly in the ointment. I don't think they can accept this and keep their "honor" or political position in Lebanon.

Y-Net News is looking at a number of possible near futures. Here is the one I think most likely.

Scenario 3: Fire on the northern border will continue even after the ceasefire enters into force. Fire will be renewed even after a few days of quiet.

This situation, as bad as it seems, will give the IDF legitimacy to respond harshly in that Israel can announce that following the lack of respect for the agreement, Israel no longer sees the agreement as binding, and will renew her broadened operations in southern Lebanon. In such an instance, it will be taken for granted that not one soldier will leave the zone and that residents of the north will be forced to live in shelters or with relatives in the center of the country.

As of now, the IDF is giving Scenario 1 a chance, be it with great caution. In the instructions given to the troops that there is no damaging Hizbullah's infrastructure once the ceasefire is applied. Only if fire is opened on the troops, they are permitted to respond.

The current situation (although I believe it to be temporary) is very advantageous to Israel. Hizbollah in the south is surrounded and will not be allowed to resupply. The Israeli Army can bring up biscuits, fuel, and ammunition in preparation for a resumptiion of hostilities.

What has been interesting to me is that despite the fact that Hizbollah rockets would be excellent as anti-troop weapons, none have been used that way. So far they have only been used as terror weapons against the Israeli population. i.e. fixed targets.

This indicates command and control problems for Hizbollah. They cannot target forces on the move except by infantry attacks. The close proximity problem also prevents firing of relatively inaccurate weapons where the forces are engaged.

Y-Net News has another page of analysis.

The first test on the way to stabilizing the region will be in the enforcement of the ceasefire in the coming days. Nasrallah promised that as long as Israel Defense Forces soldiers are on Lebanese territory, they would be attacked by his people.

Israeli officials made it clear that in any case, fire would be answered with fire. But northern communities may possibly be relieved.

"It is definitely reasonable to assume that Nasrallah will not launch Katyushas at Israel, if it should not attack in Lebanon. He is interested in taking advantage of the ceasefire in order to emerge from the fighting and rehabilitate," Prof. Zisser estimated.

And what about a full implementation of Resolution 1701? Here the picture is already more complex.

"A through examination of all the agreements in Lebanon in the past 30 years show that every decision and agreement okayed at the Security Council has either been partillay implemented or not at all," Dr. Erlich noted.

As I said in an earlier piece, Broken Agreement? More War?, Hizbollah, to maintain the fiction of "resistance", must keep fighting. The uselessness of the UN is a given.

"An important factor will the extent to which Israel insist on implementing the agreements and maintaining them. When it withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, we declared that we will respond harshly to any violation, and we have not done so until now. Experience shows that if Israel fails to retaliate – the redemption will arrive, big time.

With a UN force including France such a harsh response is going to be very difficult. OTOH the UN force is at least 7 to 10 days from deploying. The war could be back on by then.

"Nasrallah suffered great blows, maybe not a knockout, but anyway blows. A decision was reached which is not convenient to them, the infrastructure was destroyed. It will take time for the dust to sink. He will lick his wounds and rehabilitate, but it will still be difficult to define him as the 'defender of Lebanon.'"

As I stated above, without that 'defender of Lebanon' mantle his political prospects have been severely reduced.

The Israeli Cabinent expects Hizbollah will break the cease fire

OC Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin gave the cabinet a pessimistic report about the chances of Hizbullah abiding by the agreement. Such skepticism persuaded Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz to abstain in a cabinet decision endorsing the cease-fire that passed 24-0. Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Eli Yishai (Shas) said he voted in favor because he did not believe Hizbullah would abide by it, and then Israel would have international legitimacy to destroy Lebanese infrastructure.

Mofaz was the Defence Minister in the previous government.

The question now is: how long will it take for the fighting to resume?

Stalking Iran

Seymour Hirsh of the New Yorker say that Israel and the US have a co-ordinated plan to go after Iran.

“Naturally Jerusalem and Washington have a common interest in defeating Hizbullah within the framework of the war on terror and efforts to curb the Iranian threat, but there was no operational coordination between the two countries,” Danny Ayalon, Israel’s ambassador to the US, said.

Why would there be operational co-ordination? The US has no troops in the fight.

Strategic co-ordination? Absolutely. i.e. The US very likely knew the general outlines of the plan and was also given progress reports. Which allowed the US to properly handle the UN.

Video Gaming

A very critical error made in warfare is assuming that war is like a video game played against another player. Every one has the same rules and goals although the goals may be in opposition. Basically the way we played the Soviet Union in the cold war. We assumed - correctly - that their idea of a good life was basically western. After all Russia - the foundational country - was at its core Christian in outlook. Even Marx was a fan of Western Civilization. He just wanted to fix what he thought were a few defects.


Another name for the mistake is mirror imaging.

In the prestent war we have an enemy whose goals are not economic, but religious. As one of the enemy put it aproximately in one of his more truthful moments "there is nothing we want from except your destruction".

Now to our western way of thinking negotiations can be held, differences bridged. We do it in business every day.

However, somtimes the gap is too wide. The differences irreconsilable. We have wars to settle those differences. Iran has been at war with the world since 1979 when a Shia theocracy took over the country without Jimmy Carter doing anything substantial to reverse the situation. As usual we are paying dearly for our lack of foresight. After all the Hate America, Hate Israel rallies began when Khomeini took power. And we thought, how quaint, how aboriginal, how useless. Well they fooled us. Just like the Austrian Corporal, they weren't kidding.

Addendum: Mirror imaging is most dangerous on the grand strategic level. In tactical situatiions it has aproximately zero application. In the realm of strategy where deception is the norm it doesn't have much application. It is in the realm of national goals where the problem of mirror imaging is most acute.

Broken Agreement? More War?

The Captain's Quarters has a very interesting bit of news:

The cease-fire agreement appears to have created a crisis in Lebanon's government, as a Cabinet meeting of Siniora's government has been abruptly cancelled. The Cabinet was supposed to vote on a plan to deploy their army into southern Lebanon and to displace Hezbollah. That has now been indefinitely delayed -- which means that Israel is not bound by the agreement to stop fighting:

The Captain has a link and a qoute about the Lebanese Cabinent Crisis.

Then the Captain follows up with this very telling comment.

Unless Siniora gets this resolution adopted in the next couple of hours, Israel will push past the Litani into Bekaa -- and this time they will have the tacit endorsement of the UN Security Council.

The Bekaa? Well what do you know? My low morale of the last few days may not be the correct attitude after all. My original predictions of faked incompetence may have been the correct judgement. Happens all the time in war. Beliefs get soundly shaken. Considering I was pretty much alone in my opinion, not surprising. One final point though, I could still be wrong. Always a wise attitude to maintain in a war when the political and tactical situation can change by the hour.

Post Mortem

Allison Kaplan Sommer has an oped by Ari Shavit that has been going around Israel the last few days. Excerpt:

At the same time, political correctness assumed that Israeli strength is a given. That Israel is insanely strong. Therefore, political correctness disdained any attempt to build and maintain Israeli strength. The defense budget was cut, the values of volunteerism were mocked, the concepts of heroism and fortitude became despicable. Since the Israel Defense Forces was identified as an army of occupation - rather than as an army defending feminists and homo-lesbians from the fanaticism of the Middle East - they had reservations about it, they shook it off and became alienated from it. After all, in the spiritual world of political correctness, power and army have become dirty words.

Any national idea was rejected because of the sanctity of the private sphere. Every cooperative ethos was dismantled in favor of the individual. Power was identified with fascism. Masculinity was publicly condemned. The pursuit of absolute justice was mixed with the pursuit of absolute pleasure and turned the reigning discourse from a discourse of commitment and enlistment to one of protest and pampering.

There is way more and definitely worth a read. BTW the author is an Israeli leftist. The left in Israel is waking up. We should be so lucky in America.

I think he is wrong about the private sphere. See: Socialism Kills.

Northern Command Speaks

My friend Michael Totten (it is a blog friendship nurtured at Winds of Change where I have been a long time commenter and responsible for the occasonal piece - see the sidebar) has pictures and color commentary about what it is like for a civilian in a war zone. It will get your fear/adrenaline going.

He also interviews Michael Oren the spokesman of Israel's Northern Command and Dan Gordon. Here is an excerpt:

“Hardly any journalists have mentioned this,” Dan said. “But at the very beginning of this thing, when Hezbollah captured our soldiers, they also tried to invade, conquer, and hold the town of Metulla along with two other towns. And they were repulsed.”

Of course Hezbollah was repulsed. They’re a guerilla/terrorist army, not infantry.

“We do have one serious asset from this war,” Dan said. “Hassan Nasrallah got his ass kicked. And he knows it.”

“Did he really get his ass kicked?” I said. “The IDF fought Hezbollah to a standstill for more than ten years before. What made you think it would be easy to get rid of them this time?”

“This time it’s different,” Dan said. “This time we’re going in there to kill them. We are not trying to hold on to territory. This is actually working. We are not stuck in the mud. Oh, and here’s another tangible…Hezbollah-occupied Lebanon no longer exists.”

Are We At War Yet?

Tiger Hawk asks what it will take to get the Western world on a war footing. He then looks more specifically at the American scene. He mentions a Victor Davis Hanson piece on why the Europeans had so much difficulty waking up in the 1930s and how we are mostly in a similar situation today. Tiger Hawk has invited comments or suggested others blog the situation and link to his piece.

Gates of Vienna has an outstanding piece covering Tiger Hawk's question. They have a lot of neat WW2 posters showing the attitudes of the American people once America was in the war. It wasn't pretty by today's standards. Very un-PC. A lot of Krauts, and Nips. Huns and Japs.

Then the Baron and Lady D ask when are we going to get down with the Ragheads?

Comments invited.

Ht tip Instapundit

Socialism Kills

I have been commenting here and there on Israeli blogs about the nature of Israeli politics. I have lost faith in Olmert. Compare my attitude here: Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy with the attitude I express below.

How in the heck did you folks manage to elect such a galoot?

Obviously you are getting the government you deserve.

The core problem is that Olmert is a socialist. He hates to see any one hurt. He hates inflicting death on Israeli mothers. He refuses to face the fact that the alternative is inflicting death on the Israeli nation.

You guys really need to can that socialism crap. It breeds unhealthy attitudes.

Capitalists at least understand investment, profit, loss. Unless you are a thief profit always has a certain cost. If you want the profit you must pay the price.

What am I saying? That even for the secular there are belief patterns and experiences that would turn out better leaders than Olmert.

Seriously. Socialism breeds weak nations.

Had enough yet?

Olmert was driven to minimize his losses not maximize his profits.

His bleeding heart has bled the nation for no profit.

Really he is exactly what you would expect from socialists.

Arab Proverb

An army of rabbits lead by a lion will defeat an army of lions lead by a rabbit.

Hat tip: Commenters at Winds of Change

The OODA loop

Sure Fire Institute has a very good introduction to decision making in tactical military or police situations.

Because all tactical operations are dynamic, they are also time sensitive. Decisions and actions that are delayed are often rendered ineffective because of the constantly changing circumstances. When an adversary is involved, the operation is not only time sensitive, but also time competitive. Time or opportunity neglected by one adversary can be exploited by the other. Recognizing the importance of this characteristic, Napoleon said, "It may be that in the future I may lose a battle, but I shall never lose a minute".

A useful tool for understanding the importance of this concept is the OODA Loop. The OODA Loop, often called Boyd's Cycle, is a creation of Col. John Boyd, USAF (Ret.). Col. Boyd was a student of tactical operations and observed a similarity in many battles and campaigns. He noted that in many of the engagements, one side presented the other with a series of unexpected and threatening situations with which they had not been able to keep pace. The slower side was eventually defeated. What Col. Boyd observed was the fact that conflicts are time competitive.

According to Boyd's theory, conflict can be seen as a series of time-competitive, Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) cycles. Each party to a conflict begins by observing themselves, the physical surroundings and the adversary. Next they orient themselves. Orientation refers to making a mental image or snapshot of the situation. Orientation is necessary because of the fluid, chaotic nature of conflicts makes it impossible to process information as fast as we can observe it. This requires a freeze-frame concept and provides a perspective or orientation. Once we have an orientation, we need to make a decision. The decision takes into account all the factors present at the time of the orientation. Last comes the implementation of the decision. This requires action. One tactical adage states that, "Decisions without actions are pointless". Actions without decisions are reckless. Then, because we hope that our actions will have changed the situation, the cycle begins anew. The cycle continues to repeat itself throughout a tactical operation.

We are about to see if Israel can get back inside the enemy's decision loop. Let us hope so.

There is more about the OODA loop at the above link. GWTWT.

Taking the War to Syria

Global Research says that Bush wanted Israel to take the war to Syria.

George W. Bush and his neoconservative advisers saw the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah as an opportunity to expand the conflict into Syria and possibly achieve a long-sought “regime change” in Damascus, but Israel’s leadership balked at the scheme, according to Israeli sources.

One Israeli source said Bush’s interest in spreading the war to Syria was considered “nuts” by some senior Israeli officials, although Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has generally shared Bush’s hard-line strategy against Islamic militants.

After rebuffing Bush’s suggestion about attacking Syria, the Israeli government settled on a strategy of mounting a major assault in southern Lebanon aimed at rooting out Hezbollah guerrillas who have been firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel.

Israel has made the mistake of going after the symptom, not the disease.

It is possible they could pull victory from the jaws of defeat, but it will be difficult in the time reaining.

What could Israel do to keep the fighting going?

They have a few more hours to take the Bekaa.

What is most ominous about the whole situation is the nuclear angle:

...Hezbollah’s firing of rockets as far as the port city of Haifa, deep inside Israel, has touched off new fears among Israelis and their allies about the danger of more powerful missiles carrying unconventional warheads, possibly hitting heavily populated areas, such as Tel Aviv.

That fear of missile attacks by Islamic extremists dedicated to Israel’s destruction has caused Israel to start “dusting off it nukes,” one source told me.

And the view from the other side:

An international relations analyst in Syria said here Friday that Israel will intensify the war against Lebanon if the draft resolution is ratified.

Head of Al-Sharq Strategic Studies Center, Samir Al-Taghi, told IRNA that the draft resolution's defying demands of Lebanon shows failure of the United Nations in settling disputes.

He added the US is seeking to end military operations in Lebanon because Israel is unable to defeat Hezbollah.

"The Zionist Regime of Israel is trapped in a politico-military vortex and the US and its allies are trying to save it," he said.

I sure hope so.

Chafee Chafen

It seems the Democrat Senator from RI who calls himself a Republican is under attack from the Republican Wing of the Republican party. The Captain (of Captain's Quarters) has donated money to the insurgent.

Here is what I had to say about that.

The Rs as usual have cause an effect backwards. He is the liberal he is because that is what gets him elected.

Cap'n the money would be better spent changing the minds of the electorate.

But, that is much harder you tell me.

Yep.

We need to be patient. We need to keep people voting for Rs. Move the electorate right through education.

Then when the seat opens through death or retirement we get a more conservatve (probably still leftish) Sen or Rep.

We need to hold what we have and take the long view.

I hope you will do pennance by giving 2X to Chafee.

Besides primary fights give the opposition ammunition. We ought to avoid them as much as possible.

I'd take Bernie Sanders as a Republican if he would caucus with us.

Playing the short game is not tactically wise in politics. Look at the R party in Calif. We have an R governor who is practically a Democrat.

Guess what? He has to be what he has become to get re-elected. Sadly the party in Calif is too pure and short sighted to see what needs to be done.

We have to change the voters, not the politicians.

And how about the Alan Keyes fiasco in Illinois? Brought to you by my State Senator the oh, so, conservative Dave Syverson.

Fortunately Obama turned out more sensible than he ran. There was no certainty in that. Except Illinois is a RINO State. So he moved his position to where the votes are. He can't be assured that he will have the stupidity of the Rs to help him next time.

Update: 01 Sept '06 0512z

Captain's Quarter's is again on the subject.

Last November I selected Steven Laffey as Not One Dime's official candidate of the 2006 elections in his attempt to unseat Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee. At the time, the task of beating Chafee seemed Herculean. Now, however, it looks like Laffey may have overtaken Chafee and garnered a commanding lead heading into the primary on September 12th:

The primary is not the real battle. The real question is: can Laffey win the general election? If not the Rs are down one seat. Shoot yourself in the foot much lately?

I Have a Sinking Feeling

Demosophist at Winds of Change has a very good post up that people need to look at immediately. He posits a situation so dire that we could possibly be headed for a nuclear war between Israel and Iran. (more in a bit)

Why the Israeli Army is Having Difficulty

Here are some links to why the Israeli Army is having so much trouble with Hizbollah.

Sic Semper Tyrannis 1

Sic Semper Tyrannis 2

Sic Semper Tyrannis 3

Israeli Army Wants Victory

I have been saying for the last week or so that Hizbollah's tactical plan relative to the usual Israeli lightening advance was not to try to blunt the tip of the spear, but to attack the shaft once the tip of the spear passed. The counter to this is a slow measured advance. Picking Up Speed is first mention I made of such tactics on this blog.

I will have some comments on this later (errands to run).

Peace in Lebanon at Last?

The Jerusalem Post is reporting that the UN has passed a resolution to end the current fighting in Lebanon. It looks like the Islamic fascists have been saved by the bell. Syria will remain intact to cause more mischief for Israel and continue to oppress its people. Iran will continue cooking up its witches brew of Jew hatred. A lot of problems that could have been resolved will remain. I'm not very happy about this. Not happy at all.

The United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1701 Friday evening, calling for a cessation of hostilities between Hizbullah and Israel.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will recommend to the cabinet that it accept the UNSC resolution at its weekly meeting Sunday.

The resolution authorizes the deployment of 15,000 UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon in support of Lebanese army forces, which are to move into the region and replace Hizbullah in parallel with a withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Israel is not required to withdraw until the deployment of UN and Lebanese forces begins.

The new UN peacekeeping force, still under the auspices of UNIFIL, will, according to the resolution, be enhanced "in numbers, equipment, mandate and scope of operations." The 15,000-strong force will be charged with helping the Lebanese government to implement its sovereignty "over all Lebanese territory," including that previously been under the de facto authority of Hizbullah.

It explicitly requires Hizbullah to be disarmed south of the Litani River.

So there is a serious sticking point. Will Hizbollah agree to such a disarmament? Still no word on where the 15,000 troops will come from. France so far has only offered 5,000.

Reuters reports that

The U.N. resolution called for a "full cessation of hostilities". Hizbollah should stop all attacks immediately and Israel should end "all offensive operations", it said.

After fighting stops, Israel must withdraw all its forces from southern Lebanon at the earliest opportunity, said the resolution. Lebanon is due to deploy its armed forces throughout southern Lebanon as Israel withdraws.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said he would help the parties over the weekend to establish a timetable for a truce.

He chastised the Security Council for not acting sooner when civilians on both sides "have suffered such terrible, unnecessary pain and loss".

"All members of this council must be aware that this inability to act sooner has badly shaken the world's faith in its authority and integrity," Annan said in an address. "War is not politics by other means."

Evidently Kofi has heard of Clauzwitz but does not agree with him. Noted also in the above is that Hizbollah must stop all attacks. Then of course a time table must be agreed to by the combatants.

Reuters is reporting that the UN force could deploy within 7 to 10 days.

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - The United Nations expects Israel's ground offensive to wind down within 48 hours and an expanded international force to begin deploying in southern Lebanon in a week to 10 days, the U.N.'s envoy said on Saturday.

All the suffering of the Lebanese people. All the suffering of the Israelis will have been for nothing. This is not an end to the war. It is merely a truce that will allow the enemies of civilization a chance to regroup and re-arm. I'm not a happy camper. What is happening is just the prelude to the next war.

The resolution says Hizbollah must halt all attacks and Israel must stop "all offensive military operations."

De Soto said Israel's offensive was in its "last throes" and should wrap up in one to two days. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who has backed the U.N. resolution, plans to put it to a vote of his cabinet on Sunday, officials said.

The question of the hour is: will Hizbollah cease its attacks? That is the sticking point. In any case this is a victory for the forces of Islamic fascism. It is hard to understand why G. Bush favors such a move after uncovering the plot on August 10th to take down up to 10 aircraft with improvised explosives. A capitulation to the forces that set those attacks in motion. What is George thinking?

De Soto and other Western diplomats said U.N. troops were likely to start moving into southern Lebanon in about 10 days, barring another escalation in fighting.

Israel expects a ceasefire to take effect by Monday, the Ynet news web site reported, quoting sources in Olmert's office.

Israeli officials say the U.N.'s resolution will allow the army to press ahead with "defensive" operations, including attacks on Hizbollah rocket launchers and arms convoys.

There is one small loophole. "barring another escalation in fighting". Will Hizbollah cease its rocket attacks? That is the major fly in the ointment. There are a few other flies.

France is expected to lead the force. Western diplomats said Italy, Spain and Turkey were expected to send contingents.

Although the resolution authorizes 15,000 international troops, a senior diplomat said: "It may be difficult to get them. Forces for this kind of operation aren't easy to come by."

I guss that means the fighting may go on until enough troops willing to fight Hizbollah can be found.

How about the troops so far lined up? France is no friend of Israel. Spain is openly antagonistic. Turkey has an Islamist government. Italy is at best neutral. Will these troops actually disarm Hizbollah and move its forces north of the Litani? Or will this be another aid and comfort mission by the UN to what George Bush once refered to as the forces of evil?

Time will tell. This morning I'm not optimistic about Israel's future.

Update: 12 Aug '06 1434z

IOL reports the resolution will be a UN chapter 6 Security council resolution. Makinging it a should comply resolution rather than a must comply resolution.

At the insistence of Lebanon, the United States and Britain agreed to drop a reference to Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which permits a robust UN peacekeeping operation and instead put the resolution under the weaker Chapter 6.

British UN Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry said the text would carry language that would permit peacekeepers to use force to implement their mission.

Interesting. Why would the Hizbollah government of Lebanon not want a must comply resolution?

But the text is not expected to define when Hezbollah would be disarmed and by whom, as called for in previous UN resolutions.

As in earlier drafts, the resolution is expected to include an arms embargo on weapons flowing to militia in Lebanon except for those ordered by the Beirut army and UN forces.

A second resolution is expected to follow within a month setting out terms for a permanent cease-fire.

Lebanon also wanted language changes on the disputed Shebaa Farms strip, occupied by Israel. Lebanon claims the territory, which the United Nations says is part of Syria unless Damascus agrees legally to change the border.

Beirut had wanted UN peacekeepers to occupy Shebaa on the Syrian-Israeli-Lebanese border until the borders were demarcated but the United States and France dropped this demand.

Well thank the Maker Hizbollah is not getting its Shebaa Farms wish. Unfortunately Hizbollah is not being required to disarm.

You know this whole UN farce seems in so many ways a recipe for short and long term failure.

In any case Israeli forces are pushing deeper into Lebanon.

Israeli troops pushed west to Ghandouriyeh, a village 11 km (7 miles) inside Lebanon, their furthest penetration yet, security sources said. Hizbollah said it ambushed them there.

Air strikes in the south killed up to 15 people in the village of Rshaf and four civilians in Kharayeb, security sources said. Raids in the Bekaa Valley killed one civilian.

Israeli bombs also hit Beirut's suburbs, roads in the north, electricity pylons near Sidon, the Beirut-Damascus highway and the southern city of Tyre, witnesses and security sources said.

The U.N. resolution called for a "full cessation of hostilities" and authorized up to 15,000 U.N. troops to move in to enforce a ceasefire. It said Hizbollah must halt all attacks and Israel must stop "all offensive military operations."

Lebanon's cabinet, which contains two Hizbollah ministers, was expected to approve the resolution later in the day.

Olmert will urge his cabinet to approve the resolution at a meeting on Sunday, but an Israeli official said the army would not stop its Lebanon offensive before then.

More Bekaa attacks by Israel? I wonder what is up with that? I have my suspicions.

Here is the reaction of various governments (Israel, US, Lebanon) to the UN proposal.

Update: 12 Aug '06 1530z

Some commentary about how America has let a staunch ally down and links to more commentary.

Update: 12 Aug '06 1927z

Nasrullah has his talking points

"Fourthly, while everyone is talking about stopping the hostility activities, it seems that the Zionist enemy understands it is being allowed to complete the ground operation. Therefore it is our right to kill the soldiers in the field and defend our land and ourselves. As long as Israel occupies and is aggressive, we will realize the resistance as we see fit."

This means that if Israel stops the fighting in Lebanon, Hizbullah will stop firing rockets at Israel but will continue hurting IDF soldiers as long as they are in Lebanon.

In other words the fighting is not any where near over.

Unfrozen Caveman Linguist

The Unfrozen Caveman Linguist is an excellent analyst. His work is complimentary to mine. You should keep an eye on what he has to say.

The Caveman has alerted me to an excellent series of maps of Lebanon. They include road nets and contour lines. Just what you need for planning your next military campaign. Or following this one.

Anti-Zionist

I must be getting popular. The anti-Zionists have shown up. Let us see what a revered Christian Minister had to say about the anti-Zionists:

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.:

". . . You declare, my friend, that you do not hate the Jews, you are merely 'anti-Zionist.' And I say, let the truth ring forth from the high mountain tops, let it echo through the valleys of God's green earth: When people criticize Zionism, they mean Jews--this is God's own truth.

and

"Antisemitism, the hatred of the Jewish people, has been and remains a blot on the soul of mankind. In this we are in full agreement. So know also this: anti-Zionist is inherently antisemitic, and ever will be so.

Commenter nooneinparticular says that the quotes capture Dr. King's essential message on Jew hatred but are in fact not direct quotes. He cites: Camera. My readers keep me honest when I err. Thanks for fact checking my ass.

Bekaa Update 10 August

Unfrozen Caveman Linguist has a report from Stratfor with commentary. I'm going to reproduce the whole thing here. Visit him if you want the links:

Stratfor reports eyewitnesses sightings of Israeli helicopter operations in the vicinity of Zahle in the western Bekaa valley. Apparently these were not combat operations but potentially a supply or logistics run related to long-range surveillance or reconnaissance operations. Considering the location of this operation, such an operation indicates a deep penetration into the Bekaa Valley. As the map indicates, Zahle is an important crossroads within the Bekaa; from there one can monitor both north-south and east-west traffic patterns; the town's proximity to Syria makes it an extremely important strategic location. Also, there are several mountain ridges in the area from which large swaths of the Bekaa can be monitored.

Palestine: Italian Peace Activist Murdered

Angelo Frammartino 24 was stabbed to death by a Palestinian Y-Net News reports.

The website of Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera reported that Frammartino was working for the setting up of a children's supper camp for Palestinians in Jerusalem's Old City, and was supposed to return to Italy on Friday.

The youth was stabbed in the back while walking with four friends in the Sultan Suleiman street in the capital, near the Prahim Gate.

The attacker left the knife at the scene of the crime and fled. Police set up checkpoints in the area and arrested three suspects for suspected involvement.

It is believed that the attack was a nationalistically motivated terror attack, and not an attempted robbery.

Resuscitation attempts by Magen David Adom paramedics who arrived on the scene could not save him, and Frammartino was declared dead due to loss of blood.

Frammartino, a resident of Monta Rotondo, arrived in Israel at the start of the month with an Italian organization, ARCI, working to advance human rights in the world.

So let me see if I can figure this out. The murderer was not interested in peace, he was not interested in human rights, and he prefered stabbing people in the back.

If the Palestinians will do this to their friends just think of what they have in mind for their enemies - the Jews.

And yet there are still quite a few folks out there who believe these people deserve a state. There are some beliefs that seem to die very hard. It is too bad Angelo had to die so that others might have a chance (what are the odds they will take it?) to see.

Hamas believes in the murder of all the Jews. For them, obviously, that is just the beginning. The canary in the coal mine.

The coda to the article is telling:

"My parents are on holiday. When they return, the house will never be the same as before," said a neighbor who burst out in tears. "He was a golden guy. He dealt with politics but he wasn't an extremist. He was just a pacifist, the poor guy."

He was just a pacifist, the poor guy. Well we seem to have a lot of pacifists here in America, more than a few in Lebanon and Syria too. Let us hope they don't get us all killed.

Update: 20 August '06 1033z

A suspect has been arrestet. The report also says he confessed.

Lebanon Again Delays Peace

Jerusalem Post reports:

A new obstacle arose over the latest UN draft proposal to stop the fighting between Israel and Hizbullah on Thursday night, when Lebanon refused to allow the French to enforce its mandate as allowed by the UN's chapter VII regulations.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh said in an interview with Al-Jazeera news station that he was opposed to the draft proposal because it did not call for an immediate cease-fire.

I believe the Hizbollah government of Lebanon is trying to find a way to make its war efforts look like a victory. It hopes at minimum to make the Israelis look bad for responding to Hizbollah attacks. It is willing to pay in Lebanese lives for the headline: "Israel breaks cease fire".

US State Department envoy David Welch held meetings with Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni Thursday night to coordinate positions on the new cease-fire proposal. Welch arrived in Jerusalem from Beirut, where he held talks with Lebanon's Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.

Diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said that the US, which was working furiously with the French in New York to come to an understanding on a draft resolution, would press forward with their own proposal if agreement could not be reached with the French on the language of the document.

US Ambassador John Bolton said there could be a vote Friday on the resolution.

"We're making progress, and it's entirely possible we could have a vote tomorrow," Bolton said after a meeting with his French counterpart, Jean-Marc de La Sabliere. "We've closed some of the areas of disagreement with the French."

What Bolton said is diplo-speak for no fn way, we are as far apart as ever. But we will make it look good and keep the stall going.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy confirmed there was progress, but also held out the possibility that if no agreement was forthcoming, France might present "a text on its own."

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni spoke Thursday with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and stressed the importance of including in the resolution an arms embargo to Hizbullah, as well as Israel's key demand that the Lebanese army must be supported by an international force with "operational capabilities."

Everybody has their deal breakers that they want to throw into the pot. Douste-Blazy admits they are getting no where. Tzipi Livni throws in the make Hizbollah livid clause. And now Olmert can unleash the dogs of war again.

An American expat in France takes notice of the condition of the Lebanese government. He quotes Michael Béhé in Beirut:

In fact, our country had become an extension of Iran, and our so-called political power also served as a political and military cover for the Islamists of Teheran. We suddenly discovered that Teheran had stocked more than 12,000 missiles, of all types and calibers, on our territory and that they had patiently, systematically, organized a suppletive force, with the help of the Syrians, that took over, day after day, all the rooms in the House of Lebanon. Just imagine it : we stock ground-to-ground missiles, Zilzals, on our territory and that the firing of such devices without our knowledge, has the power to spark a regional strategic conflict and, potentially, bring about the annihilation of Lebanon.

and then the expat comments:

The PC thing to say in Lebanon of course will have with the knowing nod of a well accepted lie have to make Syria and Hizballah into heros, the Israelis into Satan’s only field office on earth, and other melodramatic, irrational twaddle. It will, but it shouldn’t. What do you end up with when one grows accustomed to veiling and re-writing reality?

Others still seem broader-minded and more capable of seeing what this war is: motivated, funded, and possibly controlled by a twisted ideological entity more remote and even less concerned with Lebanon than the Israelis – and even the Europeans. Iran and Syria are clearly setting Lebanon ablaze from afar, and again using it in their unprompted war against the western civilization and values of humanism they long ababdoned.

Beautiful. But I have to ask. Why is a sane man living in France? It can't be the Gaullois.

Michael Behe finishes up with a stinging rebuke to the non-Hizbollah Lebanese:

Each Irano-Syrian fort that Jerusalem destroys, each islamic fighter they eliminate, and Lebanon proportionally starts to live again! Once again, the soldiers of Israel are doing our work. Once again, like in 1982, we are watching – cowardly, lying low, despicable, and insulting them to boot – their heroic sacrifice that allows us to keep hoping.

Update: 13 August '06 1459z

A full(er) translation of the Michael Behe piece can be found at Israel Matzav

22 August

The President of Iran, who I refer to as Ahmadinnerjacket, has been going on for months now with dire threats to Israel and warnings of a special surprise on 22 August of this year. He promises to light up the night sky over Israel. I wonder what the Iranians have in mind?

These threats have reader Kelly Brown worried. She has asked me a number of questions which I will try to answer.

Neither the Norks nor the Iranians have intercontinental missiles capable of delivering a nuke of Iranian design (unless the Iranians have perfected a plutonium bomb). The missiles they have are 3,000 mi max. range or less. They are not very accurate either.

These rockets are fear weapons not militarily useful (they can't hit designated targets within the lethal range of the war heads - even with a nuclear warhead).

If the missiles spewed a bunch of lethal gas or radioactive material over a city that is not very dangerous. If spewed over a neighborhood its danger is limited. If confined to a city block a few hundred people are at risk.

So keep your fears within rational bounds.

Suppose the Iranian missiles are pretty good and have an accuracy of .5% (without stelar or GPS course correction) with just plain old inertial navigation. The range from Iran to Israel is about 1,000 miles. That means an error of about 5 miles. It makes a big difference if you hit on the edge of a city or in the center. Even with a nuke.

So what kind of attack with a nuke would be useful with that kind of accuracy?

An emp attack. It destroys electronics but not people.

A small nuke (10kt to 100kt) in the center of a city (detonated around 2,000 feet above it) would kill 50,000 to 200,000. Too high or too low and the death toll goes down.

How accurate does the timing need to be for a missile traveling at 2,000 mph? Say we allow +/- 1,000 ft. At 2,000 mph the missile is traveling at about 3,000 ft per second. That means detonation within 1/3 of a second - not too bad if the missile knows exactly where it is at or it has some kind of height above ground radar. Well a ballistic missile at the end of a 1,000 mile run has no idea of where it is at within the required accuracy. So that won't work. So how about a height above ground radar? Could work. But it adds another complication. Another point of failure. Could the Iranians build and test and certify that the electronics would be 99.99% reliable? Since a dud is of no use even as a terror weapon. Difficult to do. How do I know? Well I have assisted in building just such an item.

If the Iranians were any good at building such devices they would be using them on the larger missiles they shoot into Israel. I have seen no evidence of such an item.

The way to go for Iran is an air burst 1 to 10 miles in the air to create an emp pulse.

Such an attack is an act of war and would get Israeli and American retaliation.

Plus to be a significant emp attack you would need at minimum a 100kt warhead. Likely the Iranian war head (even if it was a stolen Russian warhead) is likely to be 1/10th that size. So I would say it was unlikely. Not impossible.

In addition such an attack would hurt Syria (maybe that is why they are opening their shelters) and Jordan.

Again, it would be very annoying but not dangerous. At worst you might lose 1/3 of the electronics in proximity to the blast. The military of course would lose very little eqpt. It is designed to withstand such effects.

So what about a nuclear or terrorist attack on a nuke plant designed to cause a meltdown? I'm a former Naval Nuke. In America, a reactor meltdown like Chernobyl is very difficult. In fact Chernobyl was difficult. They had to disconnect a safety system and seriously violate procedures to get a meltdown. American reactors unlike Russian models have containment buildings designed to handle pressure differences on the order of 8X atmospheric pressure. They can withstand a direct hit from a jumbo jet. A terrorist attack or even nuking a plant (the nuke would have to land on top of the containment vessel) probably couldn't cause a melt down.

As to fears of death. We are all front line troops in this war.

read this: Sacrifices.

Some of us may have to die to defeat this enemy. Make up your mind and be ready to do your part.

So what do I expect? A small nuclear explosion done as a threat and a warning.

Well we have 11 days to go. I have to tell you. If I start thinking about this too much my fears start to rise. What can an individual do? Other than being prepared to do your best and get your survival kit together. Not much.

Some resources:

Iraq the Model asks: Is Hezbollah launching Iran's Armageddon?

Some people are wondering if the plan to blow up the airplanes was set for 22 August? Could be. The initial step was to be a dry run. Then they have to return to the starting point. Get ready then do it for real. It is 11 days to the 22nd. For the record the plan I'm refering to was the one busted on August 10th.

Iran's Day of Terror?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has frustrated Western officials by refusing to reply to their offer of various incentives in exchange for Iran’s discarding its nuclear program until August 22. The Western governments had asked Ahmadinejad to reply by June 29; why would Tehran need two extra months?

Farid Ghadry, the president of the Reform Party of Syria, has offered a provocative explanation for this delay. He asserts that the Supreme National Security Council of Iran chose the August 22 date “for a very precise reason. August 21, 2006 (Rajab 27, 1427) is known in the Islamic calendar as the Night of the Sira’a and Miira’aj, the night Prophet Mohammed (saas) ascended to heaven from the Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on a Bourak (Half animal, half man), while a great light lit-up the night sky, and visited Heaven and Hell also Beit al-Saada and Beit al-Shaqaa (House of Happiness and House of Misery) and then descended back to Mecca.…”

The Night Journey, or Miraj, is central to Islam’s claim to Jerusalem as an Islamic holy city. According to Islamic tradition, Muhammad was carried on a Buraq, a miraculous horse with a human head, from Mecca to Jerusalem, where he ascended into heaven and met the other prophets.

Interesting.

Bernard Lewis - Does Iran have something in store?

It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal, thanks to their own researches (which began some 15 years ago), to some of their obliging neighbors, and to the ever-helpful rulers of North Korea. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad would seem to indicate the reality and indeed the imminence of this threat.

Would the same constraints, the same fear of mutual assured destruction, restrain a nuclear-armed Iran from using such weapons against the U.S. or against Israel?

The short answer? No.

Armageddon Cocktail Hour

In a keynote speech on Wednesday to senior clerics, Ahmadinejad spoke of his strong belief in the second coming of Shi’ite Muslims’ “hidden” 12th Imam.

According to Shi’ite Muslim teaching, Abul-Qassem Mohammad, the 12th leader whom Shi’ites consider descended from the Prophet Mohammed, disappeared in 941 but will return at the end of time to lead an era of Islamic justice.

“Our revolution’s main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi,” Ahmadinejad said in the speech to Friday Prayers leaders from across the country.

“Therefore, Iran should become a powerful, developed and model Islamic society.”

“Today, we should define our economic, cultural and political policies based on the policy of Imam Mahdi’s return. We should avoid copying the West’s policies and systems,” he added, newspapers and local news agencies reported.

Well if you want to get more depressed Google - August 22 Iran.

These are not happy times. May they lead to better days.

Is Syria Removing Land Mines Near Golan?

I just got a totally unsubstantiated report from a friend of mine who said he heard on the TV that Syria was removing land mines in the Golan area.

Such removal is usually the harbinger of an attack.

That fits in with my speculation at Picking Up Speed.

This may just be a rumor. I did a Google and couldn't find anything on the subject. I'll check again later. In the mean time if any of my loyal readers have heard anything please e-mail me or leave a comment.

Update: 11 Aug '06 1228z

Anti-War.com has a measured anaysis (yeah I know - unusual for them) of the mine situation and other military factors on the Golan front. The report is dated 01 Aug '06.

Asia Times discusses the general state of the Syrian army. They say the best Army in the ME not counting the American or Israeli Armies is in deplorable shape. Money quote:

If Syria has seriously miscalculated over the use of Hezbollah, then the question arises whether the Syrian armed forces could prevent the regime of President Bashar al-Assad from reaping the whirlwind it had so unwisely stirred.

A close analysis of its current military capability would suggest that they could not.

Asia Times analysts discuss Syrian missile capability and then come up with this stunning quote:

It is believed by some intelligence sources that between 150 and 200 of the longest-range missiles are equipped with CBW warheads. There is considerable evidence that Sarin nerve agents and HD (mustard gas) are produced at facilities just north of Damascus and near Hamah, while the deadly VX nerve agent is produced at a petrochemical complex just south of Homs. Anthrax has reportedly been produced by the Damascus-based Scientific Research Council.

What the Enemy Has, What We Lack

Commenter eyesallaround asks "Are we at a tactical turning point? There was one in WWI, when the sabre charge was obsolete.... due to machine guns... are we now at a point where we have to adopt terrorist tactics? How do you know when this occurs? The turning point?"

I answer her:

What is lacking is not methods and means. It is will.

The other side is playing for keeps. They have taken the gloves off. They will say or do anything to advance their cause. While we sit at home crying about small losses. It is not that we have to adopt their tactics. We just need to willingly and consistiently use our own. We need to fight like our lives depended on it.

Look at America. About a thousand dead a year from the war and the casualties are called unsustainable. We lose twenty times that number to murder. Forty times that number in traffic accidents.

Look at Israel - electing stupid leftist governments. The Israeli people are now screaming for action but are hampered by a government they elected.

Britain? Tony Blair is there - not because he is supported - but because there is no one else.

Germany and France and their poodles? Peace for our time is their fondest hope. They learned their lesson 60 years ago. Unfortunately it was the wrong one.

Spain? The fool running the show,Zapatero, smiles like an idiot and makes nice with the fellers planning to slit his throat.

So eyes, it is not asymetrical warfare that is hurting us. Suitcase nukes. Chemical weapons mixed up in a basement. Or any of that stuff. It is not what material or weapons the enemy has. It is what we lack.

Will.

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Congress to Slash PTSD Brain Research

Ilona Meagher of PTSD Combat : Winning the War Within gave me a heads up on the issue of Congress cutting funding for research on Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). Let me quote a bit of what she has written:

Late last night, USA Today blew the issue wide open by posted a stunning article on its website. They reported that the House and Senate Appropriation Committees were poised to slash by half TBI funding used for research and treatment of war-related brain injuries in its 2007 Defense appropriation bill.

Traumatic brain injury is the signature wound of our nation's current wars. As of January 2006, 20% of those injured in Iraq had TBI. Cutting funding when it's most needed is reckless and immoral. My full analysis posted at ePluribus Media.

Please contact your Congress critters and tell them to spend the money. Our troops deserve no less. You can contact your government here:

House of Representatives

The Senate

The President

The issue of PTSD, genetics, trauma, and drug use has been an interest of mine for a number of years.

Here is how my thoughts evolved on the issue: Is Addiction Real?

Here is one of the things the Israeli Army does: Aftermath

Here is how we looked at it in the aftermath of the Civil War: The Soldiers Disease

What is the best medicine for PTSD? A doctor says: Cannabis is the Best Medicine

Israelis and Americans are working together on A Test For PTSD

An Israeli Doctor looks at the brain: PTSD and the Endocannabinoid System

Update: 10 Aug '06 1011z

Anxiety sufferers overwhelm Israeli Hospitals.

Picking Up Speed

Israeli Army has reached Marjayoun on the road to Baalbeck.

Sydney Morning Herald

Syria is checking its bomb shelters.

Y-Net News

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Links and deepeer analysis are coming later. As I predicted once things start moving even bloggers will have trouble keeping up.

Update: 10 Aug '06 1008z

I have added links where appropriate to the original post and also more analysis.

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Update: 10 Aug '06 1149z

It looks like the army is in the start stop mode again. As soon as the leash is taken off the Army it is put back on again. Shimon Peres says give diplomacy a chance. So what is likely going on? It seems to me that the Israeli Army advances. Attracts all the local guerillas. Attrits them. Then will probably move forward again. Rinse, repeat. The purpose of this is to reduce the quality of troops on the flank of the advance. They will be from outside the area so they will not know the bunkers and terrain as well. Plus after fighting them for a while you can determine the strength required to hold the flank.

The Israeli Army is superb. They do what ever is asked of them. Yesterday there were 40,000 additional troops massed at the border. That is one heck of a battering ram if divided between the flanks. Right now I do not have enough information to decide if there is a strong move to Beirut as well as towards the Litani on the right flank.

At this point it might be good to cut all the bridges across the Litani, except those needed to move up the flanks. Or it might be good to cut all the bridges and do a bridging operation similar to what Sharon did in '73. We shall see. That is the advantage of having a well trained, well equipped army. It gives you a lot of tactical options. Making defence more difficult. It is an excellent army that causes the defenders to suffer 5X the casualties of the attackers. Espeially since the Hizbollah are not doing banzai charges.

Y-Net says there are massive battles in Marjayoun.

Another day of battle in southern Lebanon: Exchanges of fire erupted Thursday morning on the eastern region between Israel Defense Forces soldiers and Hizbullah members in the area of the Marjayoun and the village of al-Khiam, north of Metula.

Hizbullah fighters fired an anti-tank missile at a military supply convoy and several soldiers were lightly injured.

Battles are also taking place near the village of Aytaroun on the western region. The soldiers encountered light weapon fire and anti-tank fire.

Just as I expected. A fight for the flanks. The roads have to be secure enough for the required supply convoys. What is refered to in the trade as "soft skinned" vehicles. I'll have to look up where Aytaroun is in the west but that may signal at least a feint to Beirut if not a strong move.

"Massive exchanges of fire were heard in Marjayoun from 3:30 a.m., and many bombardments took place at the entrance to the town. A petrol station burned and one house was also bombed," said Fouad al-Hamra, one of the town's senior officials.

"They arrived at around 3:30 a.m., we heard tanks. Now we see a great fired which has been ignited in the eastern part of the town," he added, stressing that there were no exchanges of fire inside the town between Hizbullah members and IDF fighters.

Massive exchanges of fire, no exchanges of fire. These folks have to get their stories better co-ordinated. Could be just the fog of war. Could be. Come to think of it why would he be stressing his point? What is he implying was done and by whom in this Christian village? Well I will leave it to your imagination.

Lebanese sources reported that another Air Force Strike was directed at the road connecting Baalbek and the Syrian city of Khomes.

I wonder. Maybe the Israelis want the Syrians to attack their prepared positions in the Golan. The Syrians made good progress on the Golan in '73. Perhaps the Israelis are trying to make a Bekaa advance difficult and a Golan advance easier. As usual. We shall see.

Because of the fluidity of the situation it is difficult to be sure what is happening. These are problems that are standard in warfare. What can I do? What can the other guy do? What does he appear to be doing? Is my interpretation correct? How do I position my troops if I'm right? If I'm wrong?

Note the Syrians did not prepare their bomb shelters in '82 - the last time Israel invaded Lebanon. They did prepare them in '73. The last time Syria attacked Israel. Now that is kind of interesting, don't ya think?

Iranians Fighting Israeli Forces

A number of Iranian dead have been found in Southern Lebanon according to the Washington Post:

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard have been found among Hizbollah guerrillas slain by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, Israel's Channel 10 television reported on Wednesday citing diplomatic sources.

It said the Iranians were identified by documents found on their bodies, but gave no further details on how many were discovered or when. Neither the Israeli military nor Hizbollah representatives in Beirut had immediate comment on the report.

Iran, like fellow Hizbollah patron Syria, insists its support for the Shi'ite guerrilla group is purely moral.

Dead bodies mean more than moral support. I wonder when the Israelis will be finding Syrian troops? Probably once they enter into the Bekaa Valley deeply enough.