Syria Has a Problem

Commenter eyesallaround allerted me to this Spengler article in the Asia Times. In the article Spengler discusses the serious difficulties that the war is causing Syria. One of those problems is a serious inflow of refugees from Lebanon. It looks like the Israeli effort to clear civilians out of Southern Lebanon was not strictly humanitarian in nature. It was also meant to destabilize the Syrian regime.

At least 200,000, and perhaps twice that number of refugees, have descended on Syria, joining half a million displaced Iraqis and perhaps 300,000 Palestinian refugees. Refugee streams clog the few undamaged routes between Syria and Lebanon. Evidently Syria fears destabilization; Information Minister Mohsen Bilal linked his July 23 threat of military action against Israel to the "evacuation" of Lebanon. He told the Spanish daily ABC:

"It is unjustifiable that the superpower [ie, the US] does not work for a quick ceasefire. What is it waiting for - for Israel to destroy all of Lebanon so that it has to be evacuated completely? But Israel is not the only player in this region. I repeat: If Israel stages a ground invasion of Lebanon and comes close to us, Syria will not remain with its arms crossed. It will enter the conflict."

Now as I fortold and Spengler points out this is extrodinary. It is not in Syria's interest to enter the war. Even less is it Syria's interest to be on the offensive rather than the defensive. Why would Syria do such a thing (which I predicted would happen) which most every one at the time thought was delusional. One reason is economic. Spengler gives this outline:

What, then, provoked Mohsen Bilal to offer to jump headlong into an Israeli trap? Contrary to Washington's hopes, the Bashar al-Assad regime may not be viable after the destruction of Hezbollah. The flood of refugees is painful to absorb. In addition, Syria's economy depends on Lebanon. Syrian workers in Lebanon remit US$4 billion a year, double Syria's reported exports. The Assad regime and its supporters draw substantial income from Lebanon's black market, which Syria continues to dominate despite the removal of Syrian troops last year.

US as well as Israeli analysts assume that the Syrian regime will do anything to survive, but in the wake of Hezbollah's collapse and the breakdown of Lebanon's Shi'ite community, it may not be obvious to Bashar Assad how he may accomplish this. Without the skim from Lebanon's black market and the remittances from Syrian workers in Lebanon, the regime's purse will shrivel and its hold on the reins will slacken. Double-crossing its allies in Tehran at just that moment might not be the wisest move, particularly with remnants of Hezbollah fleeing into Syria.

What is the black market of which Spengler speaks? Blonde Lebanese hasish well known in the region and a favorite of many Israelis.[ hat tip Yehudit of Kesher Talk ] A Deep Purple concert was scheduled for this summer in Baalbeck. That would have attracted tourists from Israel and Europe. Not to mention many Lebanese. The Syrian's get a cut for providing protection all up and down the supply chain.

Spengler then goes on to discuss the prospects for the Shia and Syria.

Peaceful outcomes are possible when people have peaceable things to do. Lebanon's Shi'ites, the country's resentful underclass, have little stake in the tourism industry and other objects of Saudi investment in their country. Their livelihood is a function of war, of Iranian subsidies in particular. The fortification of southern Lebanon was not intended as a public-works project but, like Adolf Hitler's autobahn, it kept people employed. If Hezbollah is destroyed and the flow of Iranian largess stops, much of the Shi'ite population will lose its economic viability, and the Shi'ite community never will reconstitute itself in anything resembling its form prior to July 12. Syria, in turn, may lose a great deal of economic viability if Lebanon is cut off.

When chaos is inevitable, it's best to learn to like it, as I advised on March 14 (How I learned to stop worrying and love chaos). Ultimately the chaos in the Middle East plays to US advantage. In the meantime, it would not hurt to print gasoline ration cards.

Spengler made one mistake. America will not be rationing fuel. We will open the strategic petrolium reserve.

Now all this may explain American/Israeli moves with respect to a Lebanese cease fire

CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) -
President George W. Bush resisted a demand by Lebanon on Monday that Israeli troops immediately withdraw from southern Lebanon, saying it could create a vacuum and allow Hizbollah guerrillas to rearm.

Bush told reporters he wanted a
U.N. Security Council resolution as quickly as possible calling for a cessation to hostilities in the nearly month-long conflict between
Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas.

But he did not welcome a Lebanese demand that Israeli forces withdraw immediately from southern Lebanon.

"Whatever happens in the U.N., we must not create a vacuum into which Hizbollah and its sponsors are able to move more weapons," Bush said.

At a news conference with Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice at his ranch, Bush also said he believed an international force to be created by a second U.N. resolution should patrol the Syrian border and stop the re-arming of Hizbollah.

Patrol the Syrian border? The Israelis are not at the Syrian border. Yet. The value of such patrols? The cut off Hizbollah resupply and Syrian cash flow. This will definitely cause Syria to attack. If not totally on its own merits then by prodding from iran which currently likely controls the Syrian cash spigot.

The Jerusalem Post [link also provided by eyesallaround] reports that Syria is gearing up for war.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem crossed into Lebanon Sunday for the first visit by a top Syrian official in more than a year, Lebanon's state news agency said.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting with his Lebanese counterpart, Fawzi Salloukh, Moallem said "Syria is ready for the possibility of a regional war if the Israeli aggression continues."

He added that a US-French draft resolution to end the war "adopted Israel's point of view only." Underlining his support for Hizbullah, Moallem said, "as Syria's foreign minister I hope to be a soldier in the resistance."

Salloukh said that "Israel cannot take in peace what it had failed to take in war."

"If Israel attacks Syria by any mean, on the ground, by air, our leadership ordered the armed forces to reply immediately," he said after emerging from a meeting with Lebanese President Emil Lahoud.

Israel has issued several pledges not to attack Syria.

As i stated in my predictions (link above) Israel will keep its promise. It will force Syria to do the attacking by tacking the Bekaa. The plan is obvious now. Israel/America has telegraphed its move and there is nothing Syria can do except fall for the Israeli/American plan. As I pointed out in my prediction Syria/Iran are already defeated.

ABC news reports [link provided by Achillea] that immediate preparations for the move to the Bekaa may have already begun:

Israeli aircraft have launched several attacks on roads in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, virtually cutting off the region from the rest of the country and neighbouring Syria.

I also noted in an earlier post that the raid on the Bekaa may have been for the purpose of inserting Special Forces and Forward Air Controllers (used to direct bombing missions).

Here is a bit (04 Aug) on the bombing of the Bekaa power stations.

Here is something (02 Aug) on the Bekaa commando raids with links to maps.

Well my head is spinning from all this speculation so here is where I rest. Keep in mind though, Syria is going down, Iran is going down, this summer.

Update: 08 Aug '06 1300z

Thanks to the folks in Pajamas for the link.

Update: 08 Aug '06 1517z

I provide more tactical detail on the Syria plan at Tactical Moves

Update: 08 Aug '06 2340z

Fares has a nice rebuttal to this post. He is from Syria so maybe he knows something.

Gates of Vienna also linked.

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