Monday, August 28, 2006

Militias Disarmed?

Remember the Shaba Farms? One of Hizballah's grievances. Hizballah is packing up.

Hizbullah has dismantled 14 outposts on the Israel-Lebanon border near the Shaba Farms, Lebanese security sources said Monday.

Reportedly, the group evacuated the posts using trucks to carry artillery, other weapons and military equipment, while bulldozers blocked access to tunnels and bunkers.

Witnesses said that the vehicles laden with weapons and other military equipment were headed northward.

A French news agency reported that the Lebanese army had deployed troops along the border with Syria and that its soldiers had blocked routes used by weapons smugglers.
Several commenters have wondered if the Lebanese Army was serious. The test was a deployment along the Syrian border. I think we may have an answer.

But wait. More surprises in store. Lebanon demands disarmament of Palestinians.
The Lebanese government demanded from Palestinians in refugee camps in the Litani area to disarm in accordance with UN Security Council resolution 1701, senior Fatah operative in Lebanon, Monir Al-Makdah, reported on Monday morning.

Reportedly, Lebanese Prime Minister Faud Saniora made the request to Fatah representative in Lebanon Abbas Za'aki.

Al-Makdah rejected the demand in an interview with Jordanian newspaper Al-Dostur, saying that the Security Council resolution was illegal since it did not include the right of return of Palestinian refugees.
Right of return to where? Lebanon? What exactly does the right of return (no such right exists - it is a figment of the fevered Palestinian imagination) to Israel have to do with Lebanese security?

It is looking like Lebanon may get a real government courtesy of Israel.

Who would have ever suspected those UN resolutions for Lebanon, 1701 and 1559, would get enforced by the Lebanese Government?

One final question. If Hizballah won, why are they packing up? If they are politically stronger why is the admittedly weak Lebanese government pushing them around?

My guess? Iran has decided that the support of the shia in Lebanon is not worth the cost.

It may also have someting to do with US Rep. Tom Lantos' (D-Calif.) demands.
American aid to Lebanon should be held up until the country agrees to allow international forces to patrol its border with Syria, US Representative Tom Lantos of California said Sunday in Jerusalem.

Lantos, a Holocaust survivor on his 68th visit to Israel, also said he planned to file bipartisan legislation for Israel to receive reconstruction aid.

"It would be singularly unfair and inequitable in the wake of this disaster to have aid flow to one party, which basically allowed the provocation, but not to the other victims," he said. "Lebanon will get help from Europe, the Arab world and the United States. And unless the United States provides some aid to Israel, Israel will not receive aid."
Given the way these things work in the ME, I'd have to say that Uncle Sam's bankroll is bigger than Iran's. At least if you are counting bankable notes.

Update: 28 Aug '06 1559z

Here is an interesting update on bunker busting in Lebanon. It appears that the bunkers were connected by telephone wires. Which is why jamming the radios did not prevent Hizbollah from communicating. The really interesting part is news from the North Bekaa.
Lieutenant Colonel Emanuel Moreno was killed two days earlier during an elite unit operation in the town of Baalbek in the eastern sector.

According to the IDF, the operation was aimed at preventing the smuggling of arms from Iran and Syria to Hizbullah. Army sources stated that the operation's goals "have been achieved."

The army also claimed that the operation did nor constitute a violation of the ceasefire agreement, as the IDF said it reserves the right to prevent arms smuggling to the terror group.
It looks like Israel is clearing out the Bekaa Valley without much of a fight. The strategy Israel is using appears to be even better that the one I envisioned in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy. I had assumed a major battle to accomplish the purpose of disarming Hizballah and straining Syria. Here Israel is doing it without much of a fight. Hizballah must be way more seriously damaged than they are admitting.

Speaking of admissions. Nasserallah has this to say.
During the interview, Nasrallah said he did not expect a second round in the war with Israel, but in the same breath added that his organization was reserving the "right to resistance" as long as IDF soldiers continue to remain on Lebanese territory.

"I won't send calming messages to anyone," he said. Despite the remark, there was a lowering of tones compared to comments made in previous speeches, according to which his organization would continue to fight IDF soldiers, but would only cease firing Katyusha rockets at Israel in case of a ceasefire.

"The open war with Israel ended on August 14, but Israel is continuing its acts of provocations to drag us into the confrontation," said Nasrallah.
Funny thing is the "resistance" is not resisting much these days. Well Nasserallah is basically a peaceful guy and refuses to be provoked. Ya, right, whatever.

I'm still not clear on one minor point though. Who won?

More:

I couldn't resist adding this bit of humor.
"If we respond to the provocations we'll be considered the party that violated the international agreement, something which might cause a meeting around a second decision, which president Bush is working for and which is tied to the disarmament of Hizbullah. We have been restrained and we will not be provoked, especially as Resolution 1701 gives Israel the right to defend itself – something we opposed."
Yeah. A real shame. Israel has the right to defend itself.

Of course it looks like no one will disarm Hizballah. They are packing up their gear on their own for a one way trip to Syria. Next time I don't think they will get off so easy.

Nasserallah could do stand up if his current career has no future. Of course if he has no future he will not be doing stand up. He will be doing lie down.

More:
"This is our policy – to refrain from displaying weapons. If the Lebanese army notices any gunman – it is it's natural right to expropriate the weapons," said Nasrallah.

Nasrallah's comments match Israeli beliefs that Hizbullah's political stance has been harmed following the war.
He is packing up his shit and hightailing it from Dodge. The new Hizballah in Syria? Looks like it might be the old one from Lebanon. Somewhat the worse for wear.


Update: 28 Aug '06 2142z

Clayton Cramer links.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

FROM CAROL HERMAN

I guess we all keep our own score cards? Shows ya, even in Israel, the press isn't exactly getting a grip on the real story.

While Olmert's stepped up to the plate, and taken full responsibility for this summer's events. History books, ahead, will be very kind.

Not so Bibi. And, his deranged Likud minyan. More than a minyan? Sure. Less than a baker's dozen.

And, it shows ya those Yeshivot are falling down on their jobs of educating their "yoots." So the aggressive teenagers are left with their orange buckets of paint. And, the minimum effects they still have on "street demonstrations."

While Mazuz? A lawyer in the cut of Patrick Fitzgerald. So people aren't onto him, yet. He still has a few more pressers, I guess? But a rape victim who wasn never cavity searched for fluids. Instead? Go look at the office and a piece of glass. Go look at that. Tell me if this generates sympathy for women? Or it's more like a putz with a herpes attack? Men and their schnooks. Katzav, ahead? Bubba below. His name will be remembered in the history books.

Mazuz? A remnant of Patrick Fitzgerald's flagging reputation, may be in store for him, too? Nothing like ya keep on hitting your scooter; to fly to nowhere. But extortionist politicians in the knesset? Well? THE ONES WITHOUT PORTFOLIOS REMAIN DANGEROUS. But probably not all that electable, ahead. By the time of the next elections, the Pensioners join Shinui. What you do know, is that the Israeli, public, at large, isn't amused. And, isn't calling for anyone's head. (So maybe Mazuz keeps his?) While Aharon Barak managed to find Anthony Kennedy's underpants. Maybe, those two old men will get married? They should.

Ah, yes. Nasrallah. Retrieving his toys. Could this be due to what happened to the bunker system, built under the eyes of the UN, so close to the Lebanese border? Okay. I flipped a coin toss. And, it said nasrallah's in trouble. And, needs his "front forward" assets to protect his cheeks. Yup. Getting taken up north. Where he really has enemies, now!

Billions of dollars up in a POOF. Tourism industry. The banks nasrallah had. Probably including counterfeiting machines. And, ink. And, one million homeless Shi'a. Not about to find shelter. So, they've run to assad.

And, assad. Wouldn't ya know it? Poor guy has the IDF as enemies on one side. And, George W. Bush, on the other.

And, Olmert and Bush are waiting for assad to sneeze.

I ask you? How can he fight and hold his hands to his nose, as he hunkers down, at the same time?

The arabs are a funny lot. They have a tendency to pile onto each other. (When nobody's looking?) I'm not looking. Are you?

The Saudis aren't gonna fund nasrallah's recovery.

Tom Lantos in America's CONGRESSIONAL HOUSE, is gonna stop any funds leaving America to go to Lebanon.

Do you see problems?

Ya know? Where I don't see problems is for Olmert. Or for Amir. While for some reason, Arik Sharon can still keep on breathing. What a price he's paying for medical miracles. It's enough to send people back to the old days. Where they counted on themselves. And, a "bissel" prayer.

YES, M. SIMON. I LOVE YOUR BLOG!

Chas said...

People were talking about a name for this war.

I like my own suggestion:
"The war that nobody won"

Kinda catchy, and it does not take a whole page of blogging to justify!

Peace

Chas

M. Simon said...

Chas,

Hizballah is leaving Lebanon.

Israel looks like it may be getting its two soldiers back.

Nobody won?

Anonymous said...

Helmer Fudge said...

Maybe the Hez-Choppers can leave Lebanon and find immediate employment in Syria as Baby Assad's new terrorist enforcers on the Golan border. At least that way Nasrallah can get a life other than watching Al Manar TV in some dank old basement for the rest of his days.

OT - how do I do a trakback?

http://greenhelmetguy.info/

M. Simon said...

I don't know how to do a blogger track back (I'll find out).

In the mean time.

http://greenhelmetguy.info/

M. Simon said...

From what I gather blogger track backs are automatic.

Take a look at blog search.

Anonymous said...

FROM CAROL HERMAN

Oh, I'll add ONE. Reuter's LOST THE WAR!

Given 3 weeks, they splotched their reputation up, so that it now looks like Dan Rather, and C-BS, have company.

Not bad card playing, either.

It's a war played by POKER RULES. Gotta tell some idiots when to hold 'em. And, when to fold 'em.

The press will never garner the same attention, again.

Do you know why? The Internet is FASTER. And, checks for accuracy.

While Israel's in finer and better shape than before.

Oh, and I'll add another loser. By now his name should be familiar to you: BIBI. He can seat Likud past a minyan. But never got to a Baker's Dozen.

Bibi's not enough for ya? Ehud Barak ain't coming back, either.

As to the "boy-chickles" who complained about going without lunch, reminds me of the days when the Catskill Mountains had the best comedians. And, all you could eat.

Sure. Lessons learned. Up in Northern Israel there will be new restaurants BUILT DEEP UNDERGROUND. That can feed an army. And, the tourists will come.

Anonymous said...

FROM CAROL HERMAN

Chas wants to have a loser's name for this war. May I recommend "BELCH."

Given that the Israelis didn't lose. And, Bibi didn't win a seat in the government. Shows ya how pretty faces hold out for unrealistic expectations.

BELCH. (I just had lunch.)

Chas said...

Maybe there is one thing we can all agree to call it -
"The war that's over"

I hope!

Peace

Chas

M. Simon said...

Chas,

A battle is over.

The war goes on.

Adam said...

"The war that's over"

I don't believe that Hezballah will simply walk away from Lebanon, but it's possible that the remainder of their defeat will take place politically and have little to do with Israel. That would be a good end.