Stalked by Long Knives

Reader and commenter Linearthinker alerted me to this hatchet job on Olmert in the American Thinker. In a way he deserves it. He promised the Israeli people a strategic victory. And he may have actually delivered such a victory; it was not the strategic victory the Israeli people imagined - that is his problem.

At the bottom of this page there are links to a group of articles that outline what I think Israeli objectives were given what we know now (early days) about what happened.

Let me start off with the short version.

1. A punitive expedition
2. A reconnaissance in force to collect intel and operational data
3. To create a logistics disaster for Hizballah to drain cash and prestiege from Iran.
4. See how the Israeli people stood up to rocket attacks
5. Spoiling Iran's 22 August attack
6. Shakedown for the armed forces
7. Live fire exercises for the troops
8. Destroy Iran's rocket deterance by reducing fear

All this was accomplished. Several of them could be considered strategic defeats for Hizballah. Items 3, 5, and 8 especially.

However, there are a lot of complaints. The defeat was not as severe as it could have been. Hizballah, though busy trying to care for 1 milliion refugees, still exists. Assad still stands in Damascus and the mullahs in Iran still control their government. The bottom line here is that the strategic victory the Israelis imagined (me too! Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy) did not materialize.

Let us take a look at some of the complaints the American thinker has:

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert must go. He is endangering the security of Israel and he now poses a serious liability to American security as well. Good leadership is indivisible – Olmert cannot be bad for Israel and simultaneously be good for America.

This is true. Except that the intel bonanza (covered here Electronic Warfare and here Jabbing) is very good for America to know for any coming confrontation with Iran.

Then they cover this statement Olmert made a year ago.

“We are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies, we want to be able to live in an entirely different environment of relations with our enemies.”

Israel is engaged in a thousand year war and after only 60 years Olmert is tired. Feh.

Then the American Thinker brings up the support Olmert gets from his family.

His own family members are all politically on the far left. His wife joined with Israeli leftists to harass Israeli soldiers guarding their country at border checkpoints. His daughter accused the Israeli Chief of Staff of being a murderer. One son is a draft dodger and the other son, after serving, now discourages other Israelis from serving. In a family interview on PBS’ Frontline program Olmert said that his family had influenced him to alter his views to be closer to theirs.

Leftists - they are the bane of sane governments - I discuss why in Socialism Kills. Why is he listening to these folks? He either needs to divorce his family or the Israeli people. He can't stay married to both and deliver the leadership the Israeli people demand.

Ariel Sharon pledged no more withdrawals after the Gaza expulsion until there is a genuine change in Arab attitudes. Olmert claimed that Sharon, now comatose, wanted to proceed with unilateral withdrawals and he, Olmert, intends to expel up to 80,000 from the West Bank in return for nothing.

I thought the Sharon Plan would destroy the Israeli left (it has) and would clarify the war with the Palestinians (it has). However, there is no political will in Israel for further unilateral withdrawals. Why would he even want to float a trial baloon for something that has no popular mandate?

His proposed West Bank withdrawal would inflict immense suffering and costs in expelling some 80,000 Jews and require a huge military effort. This would then expose Tel Aviv and the major population centers to rocket attack from only 10 miles away, making defense impossible and mass casualties certain. The densely populated coastal plain would be highly vulnerable to saturation attack by Katyusha rockets from the West Bank, weapons which are easy to launch, impossible to intercept and hard to defend against. Every sane observer, inside and outside of Israel, called this proposal suicidal. And yet Olmert remained adamant on pursuing this insane policy.

Militarlily and politically the idea is nuts. Olmert ran on a platform of returning territory just to get rid of Israeli responsibility for the Arabs living there. The people of Israel changed their minds about this. Olmert is sticking with his electoral platform. Makes no sense.

Olmert rushed to accept a lopsided U.N. cease fire resolution, harmful to Israel, in order to extricate himself from his failing war effort. The resolution failed to obtain the release of the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers, failed to assure the disarmament and removal of Hezb’allah terrorists, and failed to assure the prompt insertion of outside troops with the ability and mission to disarm Hezb’allah by force if necessary.

At this writing, Hezb’allah is rapidly rearming and reconstituting itself in violation of the U.N. cease fire resolution. After only one such Israeli action Olmert then refused to order his air force to continue bombing these illegal arms shipments, despite a green light from the Bush Administration. This additional Olmert insanity, combined with the feeble U.N. Resolution 1701, will insure that the next war will begin sooner rather than later.

This is not such a bad thing. Israel can fix the systems that are broken and go in to the next battle in better shape than it went in to the last one politically and militarily. If the UN and/or the Lebanese Army does not enforce UNSCR 1559 and 1701 then they will have no complaints (it will invent them) about Israel doing the their job for them.

Olmert’s conduct of the war showed that he was an incompetent amateur given to unsubstantiated boasting which revealed his lack of honesty and credibility. His choice of Defense Minister was also a disaster. Amir Peretz, has no defense experience and even admitted knowing nothing about Hezb’allah’s fortifications. Olmert is trying to avoid an independent investigation of his conduct of the war – anything to retain power and evade responsibility.

I agree about the "unsubstantiated boasting" point. I think it was a case of his word's not matching the imagination of the Israelis. He is a politician. He should be able to explain things in a way that confuses his enemies and comforts his friends. This he did not do. I think Defense Minister Putz wanted to be defence minister because of the possibility of steering contracts to his friends. Fighting a war was the last thing on his mind.

I think Olmert has to go. Not because on balance he didn't do what needed to be done, but because he and his ministers have lost the confidence of the Israeli people.

Update: 27 Aug '06 0018z

Commenter Adam notes that Lebanon is under a UN sanctioned Israeli arms blockade. I might also note that the German ships which are supposed to replace the Israeli ships also wish to enforce the blockade.


Update: 27 Aug '06 0418z

Captain's Quarters discusses Olmerts prospects.