Another Straw in the Wind
There is an interesting discussion at Free Michael Kilo about my article Syria Has a Problem. Commenter #4. David69 had this to say about Assad:The dentist has done some very evil things - acted as conduit for arms to Hezbollah, supplied anti personnel (ball bearing warhead) missiles designed in Syria to Hezbollah, etc. We know that the economy is so weak - despite the up tick caused by the war, that little would be required to topple Assad. So for now, no problem, but Syria did give Israel a punch to the kidneys, and will have to pay, but not with its life.
I believe this fear is exactly what will drive Assad to attack Israel if Israel moves into the Bekaa valley. Bekaa represents a significant source of funds for Syria. It is my belief that without those funds the regime cannot survive. Thus although it has almost zero chance of success, Assad will be forced to attack the Israeli Army in Lebanon in the hope that luck might allow his regime to survive. Unlike David I believe Syria will have to pay with its life for kidney punching Israel.
Technorati:
Israel, Olmert, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, Nasrallah, Bekaa, Bekaa Valley, Syria, Shebba Farms, Iran, Bush, America, United States, USA, Islam, Muslims, Arabs,
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2 comments:
The eye doctor needs a sedated patient before he can begin to operate. I think this is not so, now, in lebanon. Where he was only the middle man, anyway. IF he fights he dies. IF he stays at the table, he can hope to pick up Shebaa Farms, why not? He's still standing. And, not buried. But if he commits conscript troops to the IDF machine, he's in deep doo-doo. his troops aren't outfitted with Iran's training, night goggles, weaponry, or money investments.
Instead, Assad has to worry about his own skin. His other border with Iraq, where American marines stand poised. And, with the whirlwind he inherits because even his jets are old. And, his air defenses, provided by the soviets, have already proved weak.
Those "fly overs" done by the IAF were not merely cosmetic. They've proven to Assad that any involved with Israeli forces are suicidal.
So, if I had to guess, I'd say there's nothing Israel can do in the Ba-kakta Valley, that brings him in.
The other thing to notice is that IF hez-bollah can't keep holding on, then iran has also lost. Because the hezbollah forces are nothing to sneeze at. They're euqipped with the best Iran has to offer. (It's not a local fight at all.)
So, again, Assad has reasons to stay out. He doesn't lose if the nut-job in Iran bites the dust. He just has to look for his own deals.
And, the french have already surrendered at the UN. They're now strapping on Assad's suicide belt and trying to maneuver a new "cease fire" deal at the UN.
WHile Bush, it seems, just waits.
Would Israel have to fight this one out all alone? If syria doesn't engage, Bush doesn't have the "spark" he needs to hit syria from it's other side.
All this is still just academic. Because it hasn't played out. It's the future. And, the future is full of "free will." Or educated guesses. Whatever you want to ascribe to the powers of mind control. CAROL HERMAN
We're two weeks away from August 22nd.
That's the "magic date" for flying imams. It seems the nut in iran isn't content with tea leaves; he's going for broke by believing he can get the flying imam to return. The one that left by flying to different holy spots a thousand years ago. And, if he comes back? Whoopi. That's what the dirty nuke materials are for. The hidden WMD's are for. And, why all bets are really off.
Of course, it's a new wrinkle to make military plans based on dates. It's as if Nancy Reagan's astrology has ushered in a new era of how to fight wars, buy stocks, and avoid Alzheimer's, all at the same time.
You can't do this? Well, who said swami's ever made successful venture capitalists? Or military experts.
Still, I'd have a hard time, myself, figuring out how to fight my way out of paper bags. I watch my cats. They go in. But out doesn't happen until they stop playing. CAROL HERMAN
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