Wednesday, October 06, 2004

What about the war?

Orin Kerr over at The Volokh Conspiracy asks war bloggersthe following questions

First, assuming that you were in favor of the invasion of Iraq at the time of the invasion, do you believe today that the invasion of Iraq was a good idea? Why/why not?

Yes. Location. Location. Location.

Second, what reaction do you have to the not-very-upbeat news coming of Iraq these days, such as the stories I link to above?

There is a war on.

Third, what specific criteria do you recommend that we should use over the coming months and years to measure whether the Iraq invasion has been a success?

Short - Can it be used as a forward base to deal with the next on the list

Medium - Can the Iraqis handle the peaceful transition of power in electiion #2 and subsequent.

Long - Is democracy maintained and are they prospering economically aside from oil


It turns out I had answered question #3 over at Winds of Change here is my answer from then. Not too different from what I posted above. I actually like this version better though:

My short term criteria of succes in Iraq is:

can we use it as a base of operations against Iran and Syria.

That is a criteria that probably will be tested in not too many months.

My mid term - can they handle an orderly transfer of power? Not the first election but the second and those following.

Long term - can they defend themselves?

The thing to keep in mind here is that Iraq was only one battle in the war.


Andrew Lazarus (at the WoC thread) believes we are losing the war and it is time to change everything we are doing. He says we are in a Germany/WW2 situation. Of course their problem wasn't strategy. It was grand strategy. They had too many enemies for their available power. I do not think that is the case. I believe it is more like Vietnam. Adequate power. Possibly inadequate will.

2 Nov. will answer the will question.


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