Friday, November 19, 2004

Oil prices up?

I have been following oil futures prices fairly closely over the past few weeks. Some times every day. Some times every other day.

If you follow the NYMEX chart you can see that oil prices have been falling steadily ever since a few days before the election.

So here we have Rooters claiming that there has been a sharp upward spike in the price of oil. However at the end of the article they say:

Some producing nations are concerned that a potential build-up in crude stocks over the next few months could depress oil prices.

On Thursday the OPEC cartel revised down its expectations of oil demand growth for next year and projected a rare big winter stockbuild if the group keeps producing at current levels.

OPEC estimated likely demand for its oil to average 28.2 million bpd over the fourth quarter this year and first quarter 2005, some 2 million bpd below its estimated October production, the group said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

The figures imply an unusual increase in inventories at a time when heating demand will be peaking during the northern winter. Last year world oil stocks fell 350,000 bpd in the same period.
I get it. As usual oil prices these days are not based on supply and demand figures. They are based on politics. And in my considered opinion market manipulation to try to affect American politics.

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07:44z 20 Nov 2004

Oil prices closed up $2.22 Friday on the NYMEX. So perhaps the report was not in error. Or maybe the threat of an OPEC cutback reversed the trend temporarily.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

China has been stockpiling oil at a rate twice that of last year's consumption.

I wonder if that idea arose during a fundraising dinner with DNC biggies?

wordwarp

ps: seen Faust around?

Anonymous said...

Faust still posts regularly at Al Bawaba.

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