Congress to Slash PTSD Brain Research

Ilona Meagher of PTSD Combat : Winning the War Within gave me a heads up on the issue of Congress cutting funding for research on Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). Let me quote a bit of what she has written:

Late last night, USA Today blew the issue wide open by posted a stunning article on its website. They reported that the House and Senate Appropriation Committees were poised to slash by half TBI funding used for research and treatment of war-related brain injuries in its 2007 Defense appropriation bill.

Traumatic brain injury is the signature wound of our nation's current wars. As of January 2006, 20% of those injured in Iraq had TBI. Cutting funding when it's most needed is reckless and immoral. My full analysis posted at ePluribus Media.

Please contact your Congress critters and tell them to spend the money. Our troops deserve no less. You can contact your government here:

House of Representatives

The Senate

The President

The issue of PTSD, genetics, trauma, and drug use has been an interest of mine for a number of years.

Here is how my thoughts evolved on the issue: Is Addiction Real?

Here is one of the things the Israeli Army does: Aftermath

Here is how we looked at it in the aftermath of the Civil War: The Soldiers Disease

What is the best medicine for PTSD? A doctor says: Cannabis is the Best Medicine

Israelis and Americans are working together on A Test For PTSD

An Israeli Doctor looks at the brain: PTSD and the Endocannabinoid System

Update: 10 Aug '06 1011z

Anxiety sufferers overwhelm Israeli Hospitals.

Picking Up Speed

Israeli Army has reached Marjayoun on the road to Baalbeck.

Sydney Morning Herald

Syria is checking its bomb shelters.

Y-Net News

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Links and deepeer analysis are coming later. As I predicted once things start moving even bloggers will have trouble keeping up.

Update: 10 Aug '06 1008z

I have added links where appropriate to the original post and also more analysis.

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Update: 10 Aug '06 1149z

It looks like the army is in the start stop mode again. As soon as the leash is taken off the Army it is put back on again. Shimon Peres says give diplomacy a chance. So what is likely going on? It seems to me that the Israeli Army advances. Attracts all the local guerillas. Attrits them. Then will probably move forward again. Rinse, repeat. The purpose of this is to reduce the quality of troops on the flank of the advance. They will be from outside the area so they will not know the bunkers and terrain as well. Plus after fighting them for a while you can determine the strength required to hold the flank.

The Israeli Army is superb. They do what ever is asked of them. Yesterday there were 40,000 additional troops massed at the border. That is one heck of a battering ram if divided between the flanks. Right now I do not have enough information to decide if there is a strong move to Beirut as well as towards the Litani on the right flank.

At this point it might be good to cut all the bridges across the Litani, except those needed to move up the flanks. Or it might be good to cut all the bridges and do a bridging operation similar to what Sharon did in '73. We shall see. That is the advantage of having a well trained, well equipped army. It gives you a lot of tactical options. Making defence more difficult. It is an excellent army that causes the defenders to suffer 5X the casualties of the attackers. Espeially since the Hizbollah are not doing banzai charges.

Y-Net says there are massive battles in Marjayoun.

Another day of battle in southern Lebanon: Exchanges of fire erupted Thursday morning on the eastern region between Israel Defense Forces soldiers and Hizbullah members in the area of the Marjayoun and the village of al-Khiam, north of Metula.

Hizbullah fighters fired an anti-tank missile at a military supply convoy and several soldiers were lightly injured.

Battles are also taking place near the village of Aytaroun on the western region. The soldiers encountered light weapon fire and anti-tank fire.

Just as I expected. A fight for the flanks. The roads have to be secure enough for the required supply convoys. What is refered to in the trade as "soft skinned" vehicles. I'll have to look up where Aytaroun is in the west but that may signal at least a feint to Beirut if not a strong move.

"Massive exchanges of fire were heard in Marjayoun from 3:30 a.m., and many bombardments took place at the entrance to the town. A petrol station burned and one house was also bombed," said Fouad al-Hamra, one of the town's senior officials.

"They arrived at around 3:30 a.m., we heard tanks. Now we see a great fired which has been ignited in the eastern part of the town," he added, stressing that there were no exchanges of fire inside the town between Hizbullah members and IDF fighters.

Massive exchanges of fire, no exchanges of fire. These folks have to get their stories better co-ordinated. Could be just the fog of war. Could be. Come to think of it why would he be stressing his point? What is he implying was done and by whom in this Christian village? Well I will leave it to your imagination.

Lebanese sources reported that another Air Force Strike was directed at the road connecting Baalbek and the Syrian city of Khomes.

I wonder. Maybe the Israelis want the Syrians to attack their prepared positions in the Golan. The Syrians made good progress on the Golan in '73. Perhaps the Israelis are trying to make a Bekaa advance difficult and a Golan advance easier. As usual. We shall see.

Because of the fluidity of the situation it is difficult to be sure what is happening. These are problems that are standard in warfare. What can I do? What can the other guy do? What does he appear to be doing? Is my interpretation correct? How do I position my troops if I'm right? If I'm wrong?

Note the Syrians did not prepare their bomb shelters in '82 - the last time Israel invaded Lebanon. They did prepare them in '73. The last time Syria attacked Israel. Now that is kind of interesting, don't ya think?

Iranians Fighting Israeli Forces

A number of Iranian dead have been found in Southern Lebanon according to the Washington Post:

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard have been found among Hizbollah guerrillas slain by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, Israel's Channel 10 television reported on Wednesday citing diplomatic sources.

It said the Iranians were identified by documents found on their bodies, but gave no further details on how many were discovered or when. Neither the Israeli military nor Hizbollah representatives in Beirut had immediate comment on the report.

Iran, like fellow Hizbollah patron Syria, insists its support for the Shi'ite guerrilla group is purely moral.

Dead bodies mean more than moral support. I wonder when the Israelis will be finding Syrian troops? Probably once they enter into the Bekaa Valley deeply enough.

Old News

Israel has done a command shake up today

In the Israeli military shakeup, Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Dan Halutz appointed his deputy, Major-General Moshe Kaplinsky, to supervise air, sea and land operations as his representative in the north until the end of the war, the military said.

Israeli commentators saw the decision as pushing aside the head of the northern command, Major-General Udi Adam, who has overseen the four-week offensive against Hezbollah so far.

The really interesting news is some things the General said about a week ago.

"The IDF knows how to operate for as long as it takes even if it means remaining in the territory for a long time," Kaplinsky told the Post during a visit to a military base along the northern border. The general said the IDF was currently working according to an operational plan in which IDF troops would push their way through southern Lebanon until the Litani River, some 40 kilometers from the border with Israel. But if necessary, he said, the IDF was prepared to travel even further northward.

Even further northward? Like the Bekaa perhaps?

We shall soon see.

Finally Movement

It looks like the war of movement is finally beginning.The New York Times reports the Israeli cabinent has ordered a full scale ground assault on Lebanon.

The decision, made at a six-hour security cabinet meeting, approved a plan drawn up by the military and Defense Minister Amir Peretz to move farther and faster into Lebanon.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Mr. Peretz will decide when the new operation begins, and they are expected to wait a bit so a diplomatic solution, currently being negotiated at the United Nations, can be found.

But they are not expected to wait very long, a senior cabinet minister who was in the meeting said. “The army is in full motion,” he said.

We will now find out if reality matches my predictions:

Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy

Syria Has a Problem

Tactical Moves

They Don't See It Coming

The Republicans truly do not see what is coming.

I'm thinking '68 and '72. It was a disaster for the Republicans. Their most repellant candidate of recent memory, Nixon, got elected and re-elected in landslides with a war raging that had 10X the casualty rate of the current war and a draft in effect.

Do you think the Republicans see this coming? Is Rove offering Lieberman support? Is the Pope a former Nazi?

Net roots, Al Sharpton, and Jesse Jackson forever.

Is Nixon still dead?

Damn.

Fine Clothes

Shahar Tsadeek of Coyote Organics has offered me 50% of the sales price of any of his clothes that he sells through this site by August 15th to my emergency fund.

He says that they are clothes anybody who spends any time in the Middle East should own.

I have never met Shahar, nor have I had any dealings with him before he made his offer. What he is doing is purely out of the kindness of his heart.

May he make his customers happy and there by make himself and others happy.

Prime Minister's Speech Sub-Prime

Josey Wales (love that name) of LEBANONESQUE fisks the speech of Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora. This is the speech given in front of the Arab League meeting in Beirut that was hailed as a masterpiece. Josey starts out with an over view of the speech and reaction to it in the Lebanese blogging community. Also included is some stuff Siniora said on the Charlie Rose Show.

In the past few days, PM Siniora* stopped impersonating a "caracon" sergeant, who merely reports the number of dead and wounded, and said "no" to Condi Rice and later went on to shed a few tears during an emotional speech before the useless meeting of useless people (Arab Foreign Ministers) from the useless Arab League.

And now bloggers, friends and family, and political commentators are all fawning about an "emerging leader", a "wise man", an "historic PM".

I think these words are for the least premature, if not plain wrong. Bloggers know I have dubbed him "Milquetoast" Siniora.

Josey is not shy. He next covers a number of other details and then he starts grinding the prime minister's speeches point by point.

- Siniora: The core problem is/was Shebaa, prisoners in Israel and the mines.

- Josey: That is disingenuous, as he knows Hezbollah is on the record saying that that is not enough, and the Jewish State has no right to exist. I never heard Siniora or Hezbo say "solve these and we have no problem". Siniora may have wanted to, but did not do it. So spare me.

Josey points out that this is really an anti-Israel strategy. Slice at a time. Each time it is "just one more slice and I'll be finished". Until the last slice when Israel will be finished.

- Siniora: Hezbollah did not tell the government about the attack, so the government cannot be held responsible.

- Josey: Ok Fouad, you are a 4-year old, I am three, and it's all one big joke. (????)

Josey puts the point in his own excellent style. Either Lebanon has a government or it doesn't.

- Siniora: We don’t want Lebanon to be the punching bag for all the regional causes.

- Josey: Then he rants about the Golan Heights and Gaza and the 1967 territories. You don’t want to be a punching bag? Use your head and disengage yourself from the regional issues (to the extent you can). The Golan is a bigger problem for Syria. Why are Syria's' bridges still standing?

Josey is definitely not PC.

-Siniora: Our "Ourouba" [Arabism/arabness] is not conditional.

-Josey: What the hell does that mean? I say it should be EXTREMELY "conditional". Maybe it should be on OUR own terms. That's exactly HOW we became the "punching bag", Foufou. All others are "conditional" Arabs. We're the only unconditional buffoons, with results before our very eyes. A connection there? Ya think? Naahhh!

There is lots more where that came from. Josey definitely lives up to his name sake. BTW his blog motto is: Impressions, views, and steam-blowing by a lonesome cowboy. If you liked this you know where to get more.

Update: 09 Aug '06 1721z

Another view of Siniora can be found at Siniora Strikes Back.

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Israel, Palestinians, Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Siniora, Saniora, Seniora, Sanioura, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, Nasrallah, Syria, Golan Heights, Shebba Farms, Iran, Iraq, Arab League, Bush, America, United States, USA, Islam, Muslims, Arabs

Syrian Brit Speaks

As you know I have been giving some attention to the neglected Syrian side of this war. Today it is the Syrian Brit's turn. He starts out this piece with a cry in the wind:

I really do not have anything new to say.. and even if I did, I ask you, who is actually reading this or paying any attention?..

Is anyone reading this able to do ANYTHING to stop the ongoing destruction?.. Even more, would the collective action of all those reading this blog, posting on their own blogs, or commenting on other blogs, result in saving a single road from destruction?.. a single house from demolition?.. even a single child from being blown up to bits?... I put it to you, my friends, that the answer is a resounding 'NO'!...

Well SB you are about to get some attention.

SB does make some interesting points. He starts out with how hard it is to change people's minds. Don't I know it SB. People get a world view and not even facts can change it. Excellent facts. Unassailable facts. Some times it takes a 2X4 upside the head to get people's attentiion.

SB then gets to his second point.

Our ability, as Arabs, to argue our position is very severely hamstrung by the fact that our own rulers, singularly and without exception, are corrupt, oppressive and authoritarian.. These rulers and regimes (please don't call them Governments.. that term implies the existence of systems and methods and rules and regulations.. those people do not deserve that title!.. but I digress again..).. where was I?.. yes.. these rulers and regimes will hijack any cause that stirs the masses, and use it to strengthen their hold, and tighten the noose around our collective neck.. And trust me, those whom you engage in a discussion can see it, too!.. and they will use that fact to undermine your argument..

Yes SB we have noticed. The disconnect from reality makes discussion, let alone change very difficult.

SB's third point follows from his second.

Our ability to argue any position is hampered even more by the fact that our society is full of hypocrisy and contradictions, and until we look inwards and examine our inner selves, we are going nowhere.. We cannot blame all our ills on the regimes and rulers.. We must take some responsibility for our collective destiny...

Ah yes the looking inwards problem. It is hard to fix yourself if it is every one else's fault. SB has more, written from the heart. He deserves the traffic. Give him some.

And SB, lets us hope the Maker's blessings follow from this horrible but necessary war. No more dictators, no more illusions, no more hatred.

Hat tip Fares

Technorati:
Israel, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, Nasrallah, Syria, Islam, Muslims, Arabs

Another Straw in the Wind

There is an interesting discussion at Free Michael Kilo about my article Syria Has a Problem. Commenter #4. David69 had this to say about Assad:

The dentist has done some very evil things - acted as conduit for arms to Hezbollah, supplied anti personnel (ball bearing warhead) missiles designed in Syria to Hezbollah, etc. We know that the economy is so weak - despite the up tick caused by the war, that little would be required to topple Assad. So for now, no problem, but Syria did give Israel a punch to the kidneys, and will have to pay, but not with its life.

I believe this fear is exactly what will drive Assad to attack Israel if Israel moves into the Bekaa valley. Bekaa represents a significant source of funds for Syria. It is my belief that without those funds the regime cannot survive. Thus although it has almost zero chance of success, Assad will be forced to attack the Israeli Army in Lebanon in the hope that luck might allow his regime to survive. Unlike David I believe Syria will have to pay with its life for kidney punching Israel.

Technorati:
Israel, Olmert, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, Nasrallah, Bekaa, Bekaa Valley, Syria, Shebba Farms, Iran, Bush, America, United States, USA, Islam, Muslims, Arabs,

Tactical Moves

Yesterday I discussed the overall plan for taking out Syria. Today I'd like to look at a bit more tactical detail. I'm going to use as my foil this Y-Net article To the Litani River - from the North. The plan is presented by Brig. Gen. (res.) Dr. Roni Barrett formerly an officer in the IDF tank corps.

The General starts our explaining why the Israeli Army must go north of the Litani. He says that the Israeli Army must go that far north to keep the shorter range rockets out of Israel. In this he is correct.

He then goes on:

This war will not end with a crushing victory with an unconditional surrender (such as World War II), or with a total humiliation of one side (such as the Six Day War). Because of this, Israel should have conducted the war in such a way that it would be clear that Hizbullah lost.

He is wrong here as I explained in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy and Syria Has a Problem. Syria and Iran will be decisively defeated. Hizbollah will be out on the street with a tin cup.

It doesn't matter how much you hit the enemy, the fact that he still manages to survive, and even manages to carry on his daily affairs of firing 100 or more rockets at Israel daily – means they have won.

We should have worked quickly and determinedly to stop the katyushas, if not for the sake of our "terrific home front," then at least in order to strike a blow to Nasrallah's political-image standing.

Now he is correct if Hizbollah and Syria and Iran remain intact. Not going to happen. He is totally right on about home front morale being crucial to winning the war with the plan I have described. How is home front morale? Read I Hope You Get Called Up. In short morale is excellent or better.

The next thing the general talks about is occupation. He mentions that the Lebanese Army is not strong enough to occupy Southern Lebanon in the face of Hizbollah opposition. True. However, with the defeat of Syria and Iran Hizbollah will wither on the vine. Even the Lebanese Army will be able to hold its own against an unsupported Hizbollah.

There are several principles for waging war. These include continuous attacks and concentration of power. To this point, the ground campaign, media reports suggest, has been conducted with startling ignorance for these rules.

Instead of being aggressive we are hesitant; instead of continuous, we hold our fire for extended periods; instead of concentrating our forces, we provide a slow trickle.

The media quotes army officers who rightly complain about this "half-pregnant" philosophy. Even in this war there should be a minimal critical mass.

Notice how he keeps emphasizing "the media"? I wonder if he is in on the real plan? The rest is standard military strategy and tactics. I explain why they were "violated" in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy. Bottom line? The IDF/Olmert Government wished to seem incompetent in order to entice the enemy.

In consideration of the first three points, this minimum must be the Awali River, but there are also strategic-operational reasons for this.

Except for the (slightly amazing) incursions to Baalbek and Tyre, we have yet to hear about broad processes based on the principle of guile or "alternative approaches."

Even though Hizbullah has got a strong, well-trained guerilla army waiting for our forces north of the border, the IDF attacks head on, rather than outflanking them.

In light of this path, the ground war should not only have reached the Awali River, it should have started from there. We should have used the air force and navy to place the thrust of our forces in the area (and perhaps even infiltrated from the east), and we should have attacked north-to-south, cutting off Hizbullah from its home front. The Awali is a most appropriate line to accomplish this.

Not too bad. Now let me show why this plan the general outlines is also a deception plan.

Any encirclment north of the Litani will be a feint. The real action will be the move towards the Bekaa. When the right flank of the encirclement movement makes its left turn a blocking force will be sent up on the road to the Bekaa. The blocking force will really be the hammer. Light forces will be inserted North of Ballbeck to act as the anvil. They need only have anti-tank and light artillery. The heavy artillery will be air cover. Think Market Garden (WW2 Holland - a Bridge Too Far) without the failure. The light forces will be on the defensive. The strongest tactical position. Thus the force need not be over a regiment or two in size.

Syria will be forced to attack ( see Syria Has a Problem ) they will mostly be defeated on the road. This will draw Iran in.

At the end of all this the Palestinians will be told by their Arab brothers to take what they can get and shut up. The new rule in the Middle East will be business not war.

Game, set, match.

Update: 09 Aug '06 0000z

Gates of Vienna discusses this piece and also Syria has a Problem (link above).

Technorati:
Israel, Olmert, Palestinians, Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, Nasrallah, Bekaa, Bekaa Valley, Syria, Iran, Islam, Muslims, Arabs, United Nations

Syria Has a Problem

Commenter eyesallaround allerted me to this Spengler article in the Asia Times. In the article Spengler discusses the serious difficulties that the war is causing Syria. One of those problems is a serious inflow of refugees from Lebanon. It looks like the Israeli effort to clear civilians out of Southern Lebanon was not strictly humanitarian in nature. It was also meant to destabilize the Syrian regime.

At least 200,000, and perhaps twice that number of refugees, have descended on Syria, joining half a million displaced Iraqis and perhaps 300,000 Palestinian refugees. Refugee streams clog the few undamaged routes between Syria and Lebanon. Evidently Syria fears destabilization; Information Minister Mohsen Bilal linked his July 23 threat of military action against Israel to the "evacuation" of Lebanon. He told the Spanish daily ABC:

"It is unjustifiable that the superpower [ie, the US] does not work for a quick ceasefire. What is it waiting for - for Israel to destroy all of Lebanon so that it has to be evacuated completely? But Israel is not the only player in this region. I repeat: If Israel stages a ground invasion of Lebanon and comes close to us, Syria will not remain with its arms crossed. It will enter the conflict."

Now as I fortold and Spengler points out this is extrodinary. It is not in Syria's interest to enter the war. Even less is it Syria's interest to be on the offensive rather than the defensive. Why would Syria do such a thing (which I predicted would happen) which most every one at the time thought was delusional. One reason is economic. Spengler gives this outline:

What, then, provoked Mohsen Bilal to offer to jump headlong into an Israeli trap? Contrary to Washington's hopes, the Bashar al-Assad regime may not be viable after the destruction of Hezbollah. The flood of refugees is painful to absorb. In addition, Syria's economy depends on Lebanon. Syrian workers in Lebanon remit US$4 billion a year, double Syria's reported exports. The Assad regime and its supporters draw substantial income from Lebanon's black market, which Syria continues to dominate despite the removal of Syrian troops last year.

US as well as Israeli analysts assume that the Syrian regime will do anything to survive, but in the wake of Hezbollah's collapse and the breakdown of Lebanon's Shi'ite community, it may not be obvious to Bashar Assad how he may accomplish this. Without the skim from Lebanon's black market and the remittances from Syrian workers in Lebanon, the regime's purse will shrivel and its hold on the reins will slacken. Double-crossing its allies in Tehran at just that moment might not be the wisest move, particularly with remnants of Hezbollah fleeing into Syria.

What is the black market of which Spengler speaks? Blonde Lebanese hasish well known in the region and a favorite of many Israelis.[ hat tip Yehudit of Kesher Talk ] A Deep Purple concert was scheduled for this summer in Baalbeck. That would have attracted tourists from Israel and Europe. Not to mention many Lebanese. The Syrian's get a cut for providing protection all up and down the supply chain.

Spengler then goes on to discuss the prospects for the Shia and Syria.

Peaceful outcomes are possible when people have peaceable things to do. Lebanon's Shi'ites, the country's resentful underclass, have little stake in the tourism industry and other objects of Saudi investment in their country. Their livelihood is a function of war, of Iranian subsidies in particular. The fortification of southern Lebanon was not intended as a public-works project but, like Adolf Hitler's autobahn, it kept people employed. If Hezbollah is destroyed and the flow of Iranian largess stops, much of the Shi'ite population will lose its economic viability, and the Shi'ite community never will reconstitute itself in anything resembling its form prior to July 12. Syria, in turn, may lose a great deal of economic viability if Lebanon is cut off.

When chaos is inevitable, it's best to learn to like it, as I advised on March 14 (How I learned to stop worrying and love chaos). Ultimately the chaos in the Middle East plays to US advantage. In the meantime, it would not hurt to print gasoline ration cards.

Spengler made one mistake. America will not be rationing fuel. We will open the strategic petrolium reserve.

Now all this may explain American/Israeli moves with respect to a Lebanese cease fire

CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) -
President George W. Bush resisted a demand by Lebanon on Monday that Israeli troops immediately withdraw from southern Lebanon, saying it could create a vacuum and allow Hizbollah guerrillas to rearm.

Bush told reporters he wanted a
U.N. Security Council resolution as quickly as possible calling for a cessation to hostilities in the nearly month-long conflict between
Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas.

But he did not welcome a Lebanese demand that Israeli forces withdraw immediately from southern Lebanon.

"Whatever happens in the U.N., we must not create a vacuum into which Hizbollah and its sponsors are able to move more weapons," Bush said.

At a news conference with Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice at his ranch, Bush also said he believed an international force to be created by a second U.N. resolution should patrol the Syrian border and stop the re-arming of Hizbollah.

Patrol the Syrian border? The Israelis are not at the Syrian border. Yet. The value of such patrols? The cut off Hizbollah resupply and Syrian cash flow. This will definitely cause Syria to attack. If not totally on its own merits then by prodding from iran which currently likely controls the Syrian cash spigot.

The Jerusalem Post [link also provided by eyesallaround] reports that Syria is gearing up for war.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem crossed into Lebanon Sunday for the first visit by a top Syrian official in more than a year, Lebanon's state news agency said.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting with his Lebanese counterpart, Fawzi Salloukh, Moallem said "Syria is ready for the possibility of a regional war if the Israeli aggression continues."

He added that a US-French draft resolution to end the war "adopted Israel's point of view only." Underlining his support for Hizbullah, Moallem said, "as Syria's foreign minister I hope to be a soldier in the resistance."

Salloukh said that "Israel cannot take in peace what it had failed to take in war."

"If Israel attacks Syria by any mean, on the ground, by air, our leadership ordered the armed forces to reply immediately," he said after emerging from a meeting with Lebanese President Emil Lahoud.

Israel has issued several pledges not to attack Syria.

As i stated in my predictions (link above) Israel will keep its promise. It will force Syria to do the attacking by tacking the Bekaa. The plan is obvious now. Israel/America has telegraphed its move and there is nothing Syria can do except fall for the Israeli/American plan. As I pointed out in my prediction Syria/Iran are already defeated.

ABC news reports [link provided by Achillea] that immediate preparations for the move to the Bekaa may have already begun:

Israeli aircraft have launched several attacks on roads in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, virtually cutting off the region from the rest of the country and neighbouring Syria.

I also noted in an earlier post that the raid on the Bekaa may have been for the purpose of inserting Special Forces and Forward Air Controllers (used to direct bombing missions).

Here is a bit (04 Aug) on the bombing of the Bekaa power stations.

Here is something (02 Aug) on the Bekaa commando raids with links to maps.

Well my head is spinning from all this speculation so here is where I rest. Keep in mind though, Syria is going down, Iran is going down, this summer.

Update: 08 Aug '06 1300z

Thanks to the folks in Pajamas for the link.

Update: 08 Aug '06 1517z

I provide more tactical detail on the Syria plan at Tactical Moves

Update: 08 Aug '06 2340z

Fares has a nice rebuttal to this post. He is from Syria so maybe he knows something.

Gates of Vienna also linked.

Technorati:
Israel, Olmert, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, Nasrallah, Bekaa, Bekaa Valley, Syria, Shebba Farms, Iran, Bush, America, United States, USA, Islam, Muslims, Arabs, United Nations, Blonde Lebanese, Hemp For Victory, Hashish, Refugees, Marijuana

The Sayings of Chairman Nasrullah

Melanie Phillips has an interesting piece where she quotes the sayings of Chairman Nasrullah. Let me give you some of the sayings:

‘If they (Jews) all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide.’ (Daily Star, Oct. 23, 2002)

‘If we searched the entire world for a person more cowardly, despicable, weak and feeble in psyche, mind, ideology and religion, we would not find anyone like the Jew. Notice, I do not say the Israeli.’ (New Yorker, Oct. 14, 2002)

O people, our beloved and our dear brothers in Palestine, I want to tell you that this Israel, which possesses nuclear weapons and the most powerful air force in the region, by God, it is weaker than a spider web .... (May 26, 2000)

How can death become joyous? How can death become happiness? When Al-Hussein asked his nephew Al-Qassem, when he had not yet reached puberty: "How do you like the taste of death, son?" He answered that it was sweeter than honey. How can the foul taste of death become sweeter than honey? Only through conviction, ideology, and faith, through belief, and devotion.

We do not want to...leave our homeland to Israel... Therefore, we are not interested in our own personal security. On the contrary, each of us lives his days and nights hoping more than anything to be killed for the sake of Allah. (MEMRI: Al-Manar TV , Feb. 18-19, 2005)

It looks like the biggest mistake Nasrullah has made is believing his own propaganda.

When reality and belief diverge the results can be very painful. Very painful indeed.

Technorati:
Israel, Middle East, Middle East Rules, Lebanese Rules, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbullah, Nasrullah, Nasrallah, Iran, Keep the Hate Alive, Islam, Muslims, Arabs

Optimistic About the War

I just ran across Nine Reasons to Be Moderately Optimistic about the War at Truth Laid Bear. Let me give you the first reason. Then go read the rest, for it is good.

1. The exposure of UNIFIL. A good proportion of the hundreds upon hundreds of rockets Hezbollah has been raining down on us from southern Lebanon are being shot off from relatively small launchers. There’s small and there’s small, though. You can get some of these launchers onto the back of a pickup truck, but you can’t, say, hide them in your breast pocket or under your hat. You can’t, in other words, install hundreds of rocket launchers in civilian backyards without anyone ever seeing any of them.

UNIFIL (UN Interim Force in Lebanon), which has always protested that its only function is to observe (a point it demonstrated by quietly watching the abduction in 2000 of three Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah), has somehow managed to miss a long-term, wide-scale deploying of these weapons all over civilian areas throughout south Lebanon. Even if you absolve UNIFIL of moral bankruptcy and willful blindness here (although I’m hard pressed to imagine why we should, considering the decades of sanctimonious moral grandstanding we’ve had to put up with from the UN), they surely give new dimension to the terms “incompetent”, “inept”, and “useless”. As we have seen, the deployment of huge quantities of weaponry all over Lebanese civilian areas placed those civilians in the ultimate line of fire. We all know the UN is not on the Israeli side in any conflict, but UNIFIL has demonstrated the UN’s inability even to protect those civilian populations it does give a damn about. Israel has agreed that UNIFIL can have a role in maintaining a cease-fire, but only if it is issued a new mandate and is given the power to take action.

Update: 07 Aug '06 1916z

Broken link fixed. Thanks to Carol Herman. One of my favorite commenters here and around the net.

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Israeli Arabs: End Nasrullah

The latest attack on Haifa killed and injured a number of Israeli Arabs. They are second class citizens in Israel and yet they support the government's goals. Haifa is an interesting city where Arabs and Jews are well integrated. It is the Beirut of Israel. Here is the story of Shadi a young Arab man of Haifa:

Shadi, whose grandmother and grandfather were also injured in the attack, said police officers positions at the entrance to the emergency room refused him entrance because he swore at them.

"Half of my family and my neighborhood are here inside and they are not allowing me in although I am injured. I don't understand that. Do I have no rights? I am a citizen too and I pay taxes – grandma and grandpa are here and they are not letting me see them," said Shadi who was lightly injured in the legs.

Shadi expressed anger at the government for the lack of shelters in the neighborhood. "I live in Wadi Nisnas and we have no shelters, we hardly have where to live, we have no where to go, we have nowhere to go, and our shelter is the toilet. There are no shelters at all."

"I hope Nasrallah gets a rocket between the legs for what he is doing to me here, for harming grandma and grandpa."

Update: 07 Aug '06 0527z

Commenter Sophia.Abady informs me that Shadi is a man's name. The text has been corrected.

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Shia tells human shield story

Judeoscope tells a human shield story by a Lebanese Shia:

In a letter to the editor of the Berlin daily Der Tagesspiegel a Lebanese Shia explains how after Israel’s withdrawal from South Lebanon, Hezbollah stored rockets in bunkers in his town and built a school and residence over it.

I lived until 2002 in a small southern village near Mardshajun that is inhabited by a majority of Shias like me. After Israel left Lebanon, it did not take long for Hezbollah to have the say in our town and all other towns. Received as successful resistance fighters, they appeared armed to the teeth and dug rocket depots in bunkers in our town as well. The social work of the Party of God consisted in building a school and a residence over these bunkers! A local sheikh explained to me laughing that the Jews would lose in any event because the rockets would either be fired at them or if they attacked the rocket depots, they would be condemned by world opinion on account of the dead civilians. These people do not care about the Lebanese population, they use them as shields, and, once dead, as propaganda. As long as they continue existing there, there will be no tranquility and peace.

Dr. Mounir Herzallah
Berlin-Wedding

In the original German.

This is what is happening in Lebanon. Hizbollah is targeting Israelis and Lebanese. Scum of the earth.

Also see Human Shields.

Here is another human shield story linked to in an earlier post.

Update: 07 Aug '06 1659z

Clayton Cramer checks the translation and comments.

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Human Shields,

Hezbollah Planted Disabled Children in Qana

A French language publication in Lebanon reports:

A French language Lebanese publication, citing an unnamed source in Hezbollah, has claimed that the organization placed a rocket launcher on the roof of the notorious building in Qana to provoke an Israeli attack and brought invalid children inside to serve as victims and blacken Israel's name.

The Lebanese magazine LIBANOSCOPIE, associated with Christian elements which support the anti-Syrian movement called the "March 14 Forces," report that Hizbullah masterminded a plan that would result in the killing of innocents in Qana, in an attempt to foil Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's "Seven Points Plan" calling for deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon and the disarming of Hizbullah. The magazine reported:

"We have it from a credible source that Hezbollah, alarmed by Siniora's plan, has concocted an incident that would help thwart the negotiations.... Hezbollah gunmen placed a rocket launcher on the roof in Qana and brought disabled children inside, in a bid to provoke a response by the Israeli Air Force. In this way, they were planning to take advantage of the death of innocents and curtail the diplomatic initiative," the site stated.

The Qana story is starting to look very bad for Hizbollah.

See also: Bloggers get results

Note: This bit was posted at the above link I'm adding it here because it corroborates part of the story described above:

A French site says that many of the children were handicapped. Unfortunately the site is in French. Caution, photos of dead children.

Update: 07 Aug '06 0729z

Some think this another in a long line of famed Hezbollywood Productions.

Update: 07 Aug '06 1047z

A good recap of the story at Qana-llywood. Very well done. Go read.


Hat tip: Papa Ray from the comments at Israelly Kool

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Hizbollah, Hamas Goals

Here is what Hizbollah and Hamas themselves say about their goals with respect to Israel:

Hizbollah and Hamas have constructed core ideologies based upon this Islamic theology of Jew hatred, which one can glean readily from their foundational documents, and subsequent pronouncements, made ad nauseum. Hamas further demonstrates openly its adherence to a central motif of Jew-hatred in Muslim eschatology—Article 7 of the Hamas Charter concludes with a verbatim reiteration of the apocalyptic hadith alluded to earlier:

“The Last Hour would not come unless the Muslims will fight against the Jews and the Muslims would kill them until the Jews would hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and a stone or a tree would say: `Muslim, or the servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me; come and kill him’; but the tree Gharkad would not say, for it is the tree of the Jews.” (Sahih Muslim, Book 40, Number 6985).

Apocalyptic Muslim Jew-hatred

Now if people want to hate Jews I'm not going to get too upset. Their loss.

If people act on that hatred then they are in deep crap.

If people want to hang around active Jew haters then they are not safe. If the Jew haters shelter behind their own women and children the best I can say is "unfortunate" the worst is "another family of haters out of the gene pool". Capiche?

If people are forced at gunpoint to shelter the haters we as Jews will try to kill as few as possible. Preferably zero. However, given reality some times it will be a lot. As in every hostage situation it is the folks holding the hostages who are at fault.

Jews have a very long history. We have long memories. But, I tell you what. Leave us alone, we leave you alone. F with us and you won't like the results.

So let the word get out. Jews are a biker gang. Nicest people you want to meet. Until you F with them. Quit F ing with them and all is forgiven.

How hard can it be?

Also see Keep hate alive

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Some Lebanese Are Not Nice People

Here is a report on how some Lebanese treat their Philipino maids.

Yes, bleeding hearts from first worlds like Europe can cry, "Look at the poor civilians being bombed to heaven's gate by evil Israel," but for us in our little 3rd world corner, we hear personal stories from thousands of our people who served and lived with these Lebanese civilians as househelps. They tell us stories of abuse, of being locked in a room, not given food, unpaid wages, rape, sleeping with the family dog, and death even before and during the conflict. When the families of these thousands of OFWs [overseas Filipino workers - ed.] hear their stories and then see the news international media presents on TV, I wonder how many of these families find sympathy for the Hezbollah militants, sympathizers, and adult Lebanese civilians. But I guess that situation wouldn't be possible because poor families don't have cable channels and they watch their news in local tv, which has no obvious sympathy for anyone except for their ratings.

Before anyone gets his panties bunched, I am not saying because thousands of Filipinos were abused by Lebanese civillains, we automatically dislike the Lebanese or we automatically sympathize with the Israelis. My point is, if you're poor, you don't have the luxury of analyzing an international political issue nor do you have the resources to research it. You just want to have a decent life and your opinons are mostly shaped by personal experience. I'm sure there are OFWs who were fortunate to have good employers, but because media is more interested in provocative news, what we see often on TV are the horror stories and tales of abuse, much like what CNN and BBC would like to dish out to the rich western countries-- nations that have the luxury and the resources to form opinons and implement global policies.

There is more - go read the whole thing.

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Bloggers Get Results

The Jerusalem Post is looking into allegations by bloggers that the Qana "massacre" may have been in part or in whole staged.

The IDF is looking into allegations raised over the past few days by several pro-Israel, Jewish and conservative Weblogs that Hizbullah may have staged aspects of the Kana tragedy on Sunday, in which some 60 Lebanese bodies were removed from a building that collapsed seven hours after being hit in an Israel Air Force strike.

Unfortunately they are still reporting the 60 bodies. Althought that could be true if the hizzies brought in extras. Here are some of the bits the Israelis are looking into:

"In general, Hizbullah prevents citizens from moving from places that the IDF is attacking. This time it was more," said Elon. "It wasn't just prohibiting citizens from leaving this time, it was bringing refugees that aren't residents of Kafr Kana to areas that they know are going to be attacked. And to be sure it's attacked, Hizbullah fires from the building next door in order to create the crisis and in order to create the pictures."

Israel Insider is mentioned with this block buster.

According to one of the Web sites raising questions about the affair, Israel Insider, "the accumulating evidence suggests another explanation for what happened at Kana. The scenario would be a setup in which the time between the initial bombing near the building and morning reports of its collapse would have been used to 'plant' bodies killed in previous fighting... place them in the basement, and then engineer a 'controlled demolition' to fake another Israeli attack."

Confederate Yankee gets a mentiion:

According to the blogs, perhaps the most suspicious element in the Kana affair was the fact that the dead children whose photographs appeared in the media displayed virtually no signs of blood, bruises or broken bones and, with one exception, were not caked with debris or pulverized cement.

For example, according to the antiliberal Conservative Yankee blog, "The child in the photo shows no signs of injuries - no blood, no disfigurement or crushing wounds consistent with a building collapse. The two men [carrying the child] show no signs of having been digging in rubble. Their clothes are unbelievably clean, especially the black fatigues that would so easily shown concrete dust."

Go read the whole thing. This may blow the lid off Qana. If I was in the market I'd short Hizbollah stock big time.

Update: 05 Aug '06 2246z

A. J. Strata has some very good clues about where the bodies may have come from.

EU Referendum is a very good source. Caution very grizzly photos of dead children

Jihad Watch has a good discussion going. With a link to a Michelle Malkin piece.

Update: 06 Aug '06 0826z

A French site says that many of the children were handicapped. Unfortunately the site is in French. Caution, photos of dead children.

Unfrozen Caveman Linguist provided this link in the comments that explains how the fakery is done in some of the ME war news. You can visit the Unfrozen Caveman Linguist where he blogs.

Carl in Jerusalem has reports from human shields who escaped from Hibollah Land.

Update: 06 Aug '06 1557z

Israel is carrying cameras on its raids to counter hizzy propaganda.

Update: 06 Aug '06 1638z

Here is a great result by a master blogger Charles Johnson of LGF. Charles busts Reuters for running faked photos of Beirut bombing. Reuters has had to do a retraction. Next Qana.

Israel Insider is reporting that rockets were placed on top of the Qana building to invite attack. They also report that disabled children were placed in the building. And the report? It is from the Lebanese. This is going to get a post of its own.

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Forgiving Hizbollah

This has been going around:

I believe that forgiving Hizbollah is G-d's function. Israel's function is to arrange the meeting.

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I hope you get called up

The Weekly Standard has an interesting article about morale in Israel. Lee Smith relates a conversation he heard in a bar in Israel.

The night before last I was at a small bar when one of the departing patrons wished the bartender, a barrel-chested guy in his mid-20s, a good night and added, "Hey man, I hope you get called up." "Thanks," said the bartender cheerfully, "I appreciate it." Did he mean that he hopes you get called for reserve duty, I asked. "Yes," the bartender explained. "Everyone really wants to do their part in what's going on right now."

It has been curious these last three weeks to follow the ongoing press narratives: On one hand, there is the "Israel" constructed by the media, a country divided, fearful and unsure of itself and its capacity to fight; and then there is the press version of "Lebanon," where "disproportionate" Israeli bombing has driven all the Lebanese into the warm embrace of the Islamic resistance.

This is a sign that morale in Israel is very high. If Iran thought defeating a fractious Israel would be easy they have learned nothing from history. Lebanon however is still deeply divided over this war. My estimation is that the war will go on until the Israelis say stop. They are no where near that decision. It may take the surrender of Syria to produce such a result.

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The Value of Giving Up Gaza

Commenter Sparrow at Captain's Quarters had this to say about giving up Gaza:

I favored Gaza disengagement, but at this point I'm ready to see Netanyahu brought back.

The Gaza retreat did something very important for Israelis. It united them.

Update: 05 Aug '06 1932z

A commenter brought up the point of the cost. I discussed that (it broke my heart) and made predictions a year ago.

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Bekaa Valley Power Station Hit

Arutz Shiva is reporting that a power station in the Southern Bekaa was hit today.

The IAF also attacked a power station in the southern Bekaa Valley, causing a blackout in the area of Kiraoun.

This is a target I would expect if Israel had intentions of taking the Bekaa. The Israeli public knows the Bekaa is the key to Hizbollah resupply and reserves, so they are definitely in favor of such a move. The people of Israel are united in a way that hasn't been seen for a few decades.

You might want to go here to get some maps. Winds of Change also has a nice topo/road map of Northern Israel/Southern Lebanon as part of this piece.

Update: 05 Aug '06 2053z

Bliss Street Journal discusses the meaning of the attack. Scroll down.

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Keep Hate Alive

Yahoo News reports that the leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said:

“We have to keep this sacred hatred of the enemies of Islam alive in our hearts until the time of revenge comes,” Safavi said on July 30. “I hope our nation can one day avenge the blood of innocent people in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan. I ask God to arouse the dignity of Muslims and destroy America, Israel and their associates.”

And yet there are a lot of Americans that just don't get it. I wonder what it will take. Well no one believed the Austrian Corporal in the '30s either. I wonder how much it is going to have to hurt before the awakening comes.

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Alcohol More Dangerous than Meth

I found an interesting piece today at the Anxiety Insights medical news site. It has a list of various drugs according to their dangers. Let me give you the list. I think most people will find it shocking.

Number 1 is the most dangerous.

1. Heroin
2. Cocaine
3. Barbituates
4. Methadone (street grade)
5. Alcohol
6. Ketamine
7. Benzodiazepines (Valium etc)
8. Amphetamines
9. Tobacco
10. Buprenorphine
11. Cannabis
12. Solvents
13. 4-MTA (Flatliners)
14. LSD
15. Methylphenidate (Ritalin)
16. Anabolic steroids
17. GHB
18. Ecstasy
19. Alkyl Nitrites
20. Khat

Alcohol is #5 methamphetamine is #8. So we continuously have all these meth scares and alcohol gets a pass. Tobacco at #9 is more dangerous than pot at #11. Alcohol the most common date rape drug at #5 is way more dangerous than the date rape drug GHB at #17. Ecstacy a well known party drug at #18 is much less dangerous than alcohol at #5. And that good old stand by "fry your brain" LSD? It is #14 compared to lose your conciousness alcohol at #5. You have to ask yourself, is there something wrong with this picture?

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Fares Answers

I asked Syrian blogger Fares some questions about Syria and the current world situation:

I'd be very much interested in your view of what the
Syrian response would be if Israeli troops occupied
the Bekaa.

Could it force Syria to attack? Leading to the
destruction of Syrian Armed Forces.

If there was no attack could it cause a popular
revolt?

BTW I saw in a Jerusalem Post article (sorry no link)
that the US suggested that Israel attack Syria. The
mention was one or two sentences at the bottom of the
article. A sign that the author did not place much
value in the report. I think it reflects the thinking
at the highest levels in America (the ME is not the
only place with interests and score settling
mentalities). Syria is definitely a target for America
(given the trouble Syria has caused in Iraq) and
Israel (Hizbollah).

Israel of course will try to provoke Syria so as to
have the "moral high ground" and avoid breaking its
promise to not attack.

What would a revolt in Syria look like? Who would
lead? Who would you like to come out on top?

By November at the latest, the ME will look completely
different.

If you would like to blog your thoughts I'd be honored
to participate in any way you would like.

Fares responds at his blog.

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Reports from Iran

Here are a few reports from Iran:

Iran forces urged to prepare to hit Israel

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's hardline forces should get ready to take revenge on Israel and the United States for the offensive on Lebanon, the head of the Revolutionary Guards was quoted as saying on Sunday.

"The Basij and Revolutionary Guards should prepare to get even with the Zionists and Americans," Yahya Rahim-Safavi was quoted as telling Islamic militiamen by the conservative Fars news agency.

The Basij are volunteer Islamic militiamen.

"The timing of the this will be announced by the leader," he added.

18 "spy" Israeli shot in the south Lebanon

The Islamic regime-run news agency ILNA’s reported: "18 Israeli spies, from the port city of SOOR, located in southern Lebanon were executed. The German News Agency reported that those executed by a firing squad were accused [by Hezbollah malitia] of espionage for Israel. According to the report in the German press, the foreign nationals who had were boarding ships organized for their evacuation from Lebanon, were present at the time of the executions. Dr. Boris Bok, a Munich physicians told the German media that he witnessed a number of the Lebanese resistance fighters [who opposed Hezbollah] be charged with aiding the Israelis in air strikes and were therefore brought to the firing squads. The German physician and other German nationals who were transferred from Lebanon to Cyprus clearly stated that they saw everything as it happened; the witnesses said that the people who were executed had also divulged location of the houses of the Hezbollah terrorists to the Israeli air force.”

Blair says Syria, Iran risk confrontation

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Tony Blair warned Syria and Iran on Tuesday that they risked a confrontation if they continued to support terrorism and export instability to Iraq and elsewhere.

In a speech urging a rethink of the West's strategy to defeat extremism in the Middle East, Blair accused Iran and Syria of helping extreme factions in Iraq and backing militant groups in Lebanon and Palestine.

Blair said the international community should tell Syria and Iran that they should either play by the same rules as the rest of the world "or be confronted."

"Their support of terrorism, their deliberate export of instability, their desire to see wrecked the democratic prospect in Iraq, is utterly unjustifiable, dangerous and wrong.

"If they keep raising the stakes, they will find they have miscalculated," Blair said in a speech to the World Affairs Council, a nonprofit organization in Los Angeles.

Iran and Syria Beat the Drums of War

www.memri.org

August 2, 2006 No.1225

In the last few days senior Iranian and Syrian officials, including Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, have stepped up their statements on the war, with the Syrian regime's mouthpieces in the media following suit.

The following are excerpts:

Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander: We Must Keep the Hatred of America Burning in Our Hearts Until the Moment of Revenge Arrives

The Iranian conservative news agency Fars reported that Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Yahya Raheem Safavi gave a speech before forces from the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij [1] on July 30, 2006, in which he demanded that they be prepared to act against Israel and the United States.

There Would Be No Peace In the Middle East Without A Regime Change In Iran

Three weeks after attacking Lebanon massively with the aim of destroying Hezbollah and make the Lebanese people hate the leader of the Iran-backed organisation, Hasan Nasrallah, Israel has made him the Arabs and Muslim’s number one hero, replacing the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezjad, increased Hezbollah’s public standing, reinforced its military machine, replenished its financial coffers in the one hand and on the other, helped Iran to become the region’s major actor instead of being isolated, another aim of the Tel Aviv’s latest adventure. By Safa Haeri

God's Army Has Plans to Run the Whole Middle East

[Wednesday, July 26, 2006] ‘You are the sun of Islam, shining on the universe!” This is how Muhammad Khatami, the mullah who was president of Iran until last year, described Hezbollah last week. It would be no exaggeration to describe Hezbollah — the Lebanese Shi’ite militia — as Tehran’s regional trump card. Each time Tehran has played it, it has won. As war rages between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Tehran policymakers think that this time, too, they can win. By Amir Taheri

Lebanon: The Victimization of a Nation on the Path to Empire Building

Before, any further deliverance of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon are addressed it must be noted that after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the United States as the world's soul superpower—now a 'hyperpower,' that seems to be on the decline—the United States intended to create unipolar world under a New World Order, but these objectives have all but disintegrated as multi-polar has emerged with contending centres of power and an interlinked world has been fermented through the forces and agents of globalization. The world is once again shrouded in a cold war, but this time a cold war shrouded in silence and concealment. One can only ask why? In asking this question the best possible answer is that if this Second Cold War became a matter of public knowledge, the United States would be the primary cause and antecedent of both blame and fault, thus the issue is concealed in the West, until sufficient blame can be laid on another state such as the Russian Federation, the Peoples' Republic of China, and Iran.

Iran: Preparing For A Defining Election

WASHINGTON, August 1, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Buoyed by success in municipal, legislative, and presidential elections in recent years, fundamentalists associated with President Mahmud Ahmadinejad have now set their sights on the Assembly of Experts, the popularly elected body of 86 clerics that supervises and selects Iran's supreme leader.

The fundamentalists want Ahmadinejad's spiritual guide, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, to head the assembly. Their support has put him in competition with Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the assembly's deputy speaker, who lost the presidency to Ahmadinejad in a runoff vote in 2005. Mesbah-Yazdi's supporters shouted down Hashemi-Rafsanjani when he tried to give a speech in Qom on June 4.

A commentary in a conservative weekly connected to Mesbah-Yazdi, "Parto-i Sokhan" on May 10, also took shots at Hashemi-Rafsanjani when it interpreted regulations on eligibility for the Assembly of Experts. The weekly said that critics of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's stance on the 1979-81 hostage crisis or on the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War are ineligible. So, too, it said, are those who caused delays in the acquisition of peaceful nuclear technology or who advocated backing down in the diplomatic process.

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Lebanon: Bekaa, Attacks, Maps

Here is a bit on recent air attacks by Israel from the Jerusalem Post.Originally quoted here

Israeli jet fighters struck deep inside Lebanese territory, hitting Hermel, some 120 kilometers north of the Israeli border in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon. Warplanes fired at least five air-to-surface missiles on the edge of the town, targeting a road linking eastern Lebanon to western regions and the coastline.

About six hours later, warplanes returned to attack Hermel again, hitting a pickup truck loaded with cooking gas tanks, security officials said. The canisters exploded, sending flames shooting up from the vehicle for nearly an hour. The driver had pulled over and exited the vehicle before the attack, and was not hurt, they said. [Somehow, I doubt those tanks had cooking gas in them. CiJ]

========

Get out your maps, overlays, and pins:

Nice simple topo map of Lebanon with major cities. Ballbeck is shown.

Bekaa Road net

Political map of Lebanon

Air strikes in Lebanon [pdf]

Air strikes in Lebanon [jpg]

A good resource from the Lebanese side of Israeli operations in Lebanon.

This may be indicative of a move towards the Bekaa Valley. Or as so many have pointed out, it may just be my fevered imagination.

If you haven't read my previous piece on the strategy of the war please do so. It will make this more intelligible.

Update: 02 Aug '06 0422z

It looks like my imagination is not so fevered after all.

Lebanese army and security officials said a major Israel Defense Forces operation was underway against suspected Hezbollah positions near Baalbek in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley late Tuesday. IDF troops thrust deep into the area, landing troops by helicopter in the Hezbollah heartland.

Lebanese security sources said IDF soldiers had landed by helicopter near Baalbek as aircraft launched several strikes in the region.

One Lebanese officer saying the Israel Air Force presence in the air above the ancient city was "unprecedented." ... "The extreme, unprecedented number of aircraft indicates the possibility that the Israelis are planning to land troops, but we cannot yet confirm that," said one security official on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

Quoted at Captains's Quarters

From Haaretz

Update: 02 Aug '06 0539z

Israel has landed troops 10km north of Baalbek says CNN. From Varifrank who has other interesting things to say.

The Jerusalem Post has a report on the raid and pictures of commandos with machine guns.

Haaretz reports on the raid in detail.

Well, well, well, one of Iran's top guys, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised that Iran would stand with Lebanon in the fight against Israel. I hope so.

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