Friday, May 11, 2007

The Solar Conveyor Has Slowed

NASA says the solar conveyor has slowed. The solar conveyor speed predicts the sunspot level two cycles in advance, about 20 years.

"Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace," says Hathaway. "That's how it has been since the late 19th century." In recent years, however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south. "We've never seen speeds so low."

According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of sunspot activity ~20 years in the future. A slow belt means lower solar activity; a fast belt means stronger activity. The reasons for this are explained in the Science@NASA story Solar Storm Warning.

"The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries," says Hathaway.
What does all this have to do with the climate on earth? Let us look at the climate when sunspot levels were low:
...the Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton minima coincide with the colder periods of the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1450 to 1820. More recently it was discovered that the sunspot number during 1861-1989 shows a remarkable parallelism with the simultaneous variation in northern hemisphere mean temperatures (2). There is an even better correlation with the length of the solar cycle, between years of the highest numbers of sunspots. For example, the temperature anomaly was - 0.4 K in 1890 when the cycle was 11.7 years, but + 0.25 K in 1989 when the cycle was 9.8 years. Some critics of the theory of man-induced global warming have seized on this discovery to criticize the greenhouse gas theory.

All this evokes the important question of how sunspots affect the Earth's climate. To answer this question, we need to know how total solar irradiance received by the Earth is affected by sunspot activity.

Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would decrease as the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased. However direct satellite measurements of irradiance have shown just the opposite to be the case. This means that more sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that global temperatures should rise.
If sunspots are going to decline in the near future the global warming era may be over. Especially if the sun's effect on Clouds turns out to be affected by solar activity as some scientists have experimentally proved.

So are things warming up now?
1. Since about 2002 there has been NO statistically significant global average warming in the lower and middle troposphere,


2. Since about 1995 there has been NO statistically significant cooling in the stratosphere.

The IPCC SPM conclusion that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” is wrong as it ignores the lack of such warming in recent years by these other metrics of climate system heat changes...
Well what do you know? In addition global temperatures have been on the decline for the last few years. We had a spike in 2004 I believe, but otherwise temperatures have been declining since about 2000 or so.


Reliapundit said...

the political schmucks running agw crowd are NOT dumb.

they KNOW we are near the end of this warming cycle, and that's EXACTLY why they are pushing so dang FURIOUSLY HARD to get agw taxes and regulations in place ASAP ASAP ASAP - because in a few years it will be cooling --- they want to hamper capitalism/free markets / industrialization/globalization --- it's always been the left's long term goal - and they KNOW that it's NOW OR NEVER!

Anonymous said...

Gee, that's really deep. Only if certain doom were upon us would you attempt to reduce our negative impact on planet earth.

And you're right, it's a scam to help out the bad guys - nature.

Luckily now, though, you can get excessively wealthy and America can continue to aggressively hump the rest of the world's nations, while SIMULTANEOUSLY exploiting mother earth.

By the way, I laugh at bipartisan entanglements.

Could we divide ourselves up into even finer categories, I don't hate enough people yet.

M. Simon said...

You could die from a scratch.

Why aren't you in body armor all the time?

Don't you care about your health?

Harold Ambler said...

Total solar irradiance is not the driver of climate that you suggest. Solar activity less significantly to the amount of heat hitting our atmosphere and then the surface of the Earth than it does to cosmic rays. Intense solar activity = fewer cosmic rays. Weak solar activity (as in during the next 25 years) = more cosmic rays. The cosmic rays contribute very significantly to low-atmosphere cloud formation and have a net cooling effect worldwide. The process has thrown us into ice ages, large and small, hundreds of times.

M. Simon said...

If you will look up my articles on Clouds here and at Classical Values I think you will find I have covered that point as well.