Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Record Highs

Sacramento California has been reporting record highs this summer.

Don't tell Al Gore, but global warming is taking a holiday in Sacramento this week. The maximum temperatures Sunday and Monday set records each day -- as the coolest "highs" for the dates since record-keeping began in 1877.

Forecasters credit a deep marine layer and a potent low-pressure trough with funneling the cool air this way. It's as if Mother Nature cut herself a wedge of Santa Barbara weather and plopped it down on Sacramento's plate.

We're talking, for once, about the all-time lowest maximums, instead of the all-time highest. Monday's downtown high was just 74 degrees, 3 degrees cooler than the previous record of 77 degrees set in 1906, according to the National Weather Service. Sunday's downtown high of 76 frosted the previous low maximum of 78, set in 1962.
I'm wondering if like the Gore effect there might not also be a Newsweek effect.
Since the late 1980s, this well-coordinated, well-funded campaign by contrarian scientists, free-market think tanks and industry has created a paralyzing fog of doubt around climate change. Through advertisements, op-eds, lobbying and media attention, greenhouse doubters (they hate being called deniers) argued first that the world is not warming; measurements indicating otherwise are flawed, they said. Then they claimed that any warming is natural, not caused by human activities. Now they contend that the looming warming will be minuscule and harmless.
So what I want to know is: why isn't my check in the mail?

However, I'm not a true denialist. The IPCC projection of sea level rise has gotten me seriously worried. My advice to people living close to the shore? “Run for your lives before it is too late” the IPCC predicts a 3 mm per year rise in sea level. That is one foot in a century. Think of the devastation that wave would cause if it happened all at once. A one foot wave is unprecedented. It will be the end of civilization as we know it. OTOH “dude, surf’s up”.

OK so could a 5 deg F temperature change could be deadly to the flora and fauna on earth. You are telling me that a system that varies over a range of 120 deg F in a year’s time is going to be seriously disturbed by a predicted 5 deg F change? And is already out of whack from a 1 deg F change? You are telling me that the biota will not adapt? That adjustments will not be made?

You are telling me that we must assume a signal which is much less than the noise will have big effects on the system? Doubtful. That 120 F yearly variation and 20 F daily variation tends to anneal out the effects of very small very low frequency variations at least until they get significant relative to the yearly variations.

Well any way, I'm willing to become a full fledged denialist if it pays well. I think $2,500 a month would be sufficient to start. Just let me know the check is in the mail.

Several sites have suggested this Marc Morano article:
The only problem is -- Newsweek knew better. Reporter Eve Conant, who interviewed Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the Ranking Member of the Environment & Public Works Committee, was given all the latest data proving conclusively that it is the proponents of man-made global warming fears that enjoy a monumental funding advantage over the skeptics. (A whopping $50 BILLION to a paltry $19 MILLION for skeptics – Yes, that is BILLION to MILLION - see below)
Mann. I'm on the wrong side in this argument. I guess the check will not be in the mail.

There are also some good links here.

H/T papertiger

Cross Posted at Classical Values


LarryD said...

So Eve Conant lied?

I'm shocked, shocked, I tell you. :-)

Anonymous said...

Simon you will never believe this.
Former Governor and current AG Jerry Brown is arguing the AGW party line in the comment section of this Daniel Weintrab article.
Daniel Weintraub: Republicans tangle with old foe on global warming

I urge any one who is interested in arguing with the actual policy makers involved with climate change to come to that article and add your two cents. Registration is a bit of a process, but how often does such an opportunity come about?

Jerry Brown's comment to the article; The strange comments above reflect the type of distorted thinking now controling Republican State Senators. This rather isolated group persists in fighting every effort to combat global warming--against the views of 95% of climate scientists and the 100 nations which recently spoke out at the United Nations in favor of immediate action to control global greenhouse gasses. California can't wait until 20012. Over 400 cities nationwide are taking action on global warming. As for freeways, the truth is I built three times more than governors Wilson and Deukmejian combined.

Anonymous said...


Sorry, I get carried away with myself sometimes, thinking what's urgent to me is the same for others.
Governor Moonbeam will be getting an earful regardless (from me).

I should get my own blog probably.

linearthinker said...

Note for papertiger.

Hang in here. If you do open your own blog, be sure to return here with links.

The last election provided many stunning results. Never underestimate the evil potential that lurk in California politics.

linearthinker said...

Simon said: Mann. I'm on the wrong side...

Was that a Freudian slip, or another typo?

M. Simon said...

The "Mann" thing is an insider joke.

Glad you caught it.

Susan's Husband said...

Not to credit the alarmists too much, but a 5°F shift can make a real difference for the biota. The issue is freezing. A location where the temperature never gets below freezing is much different than one that does (check out hardiness zones). Even a 5°F shift can move the freeze line a good distance.

It's not such a big deal for animals directly, but ultimately they live off plants so there's some effect.

M. Simon said...

I have never said things won't change.

All I'm saying is that the changes will not be catastrophic.

Plant habitats will change. Different animals will live with different plants.

Plant habitats moving at even 10 miles a year is not the end of the world.