Sunday, January 14, 2007

Its Official

There is a lot of talk on Little Green Footballs (LGF) on the subject of why the United states is giving money to the Palestinians. (mainly the $86 million to Fatah).

A lot of folks at LGF (myself included) think the purpose of the money is to make sure Hamas and Fatah are fairly evenly matched so the Pali civil war keeps escalating. I think that is Israeli policy as well. Olmert’s restraint with respect to rockets fired from Gaza into being a case in point. Minimal retaliation means the factions will not unite against Israel. Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh says the US and Israel are conspiring to keep the Palestinian civil war going (he actually says getting it started - but he has to say that to preserve the fiction of Palestinian unity). He should know.

Diplo speak is being used to cover what is really happening. By all sides.

I do think America wants Olmert out as Israeli Prime Minister for his betrayal of America last summer in Lebanon. This is good. Rice's recent visit to Israel where she talked with several cabinent ministers but not Olmert or the Defence Minister Peretz is an indication of this. The Israeli people have been given six months to act. Now America is makining its move. Iran won’t wait.

Olmert was tired when he got into office. He is dead tired now. Politically he might as well be out of office.

Faster Please.

Every good strategy as B.H.L. Hart points out in "Strategy" has alternate goals. So the enemy can’t tell what you are trying to accomplish and splits his forces. In this case the “enemy” is the world community. The people who scream bloody murder every time some action is taken against the Palestinians. In this case, to the casual observer, it looks like America is helping the Palestinians by giving them money. Israel has promised to give the the Palestinians some of the back taxes owed to them. However, it is my guess that the money will be given to factions so as to keep them aproximately matched. A balance of power strategy.

For the longest time I couldn’t figure out why the arms smuggling tunnels into Gaza from Egypt were not severely attacked. Now I see it as part of the plan. You will note that, in co-operation with Egypt, the arms flow freely (if you have the money to pay) but no cash is allowed in. The purpose is to allow a build up of small arms while by controlling the money flows, who gets the arms is controlled. In addition Hamas must be allowed to get some arms through so they have no incentive to close the tunnels.

Why would Egypt co-operate? Probably because they have been threatened with having the Palestinian problem dumped in their laps if they do not go along. This is something they absolutely do not want. If Gaza became part of Egypt again, Egypt would, for political reasons, have to open its borders to the Gazans. Palestinians seem to cause a lot of trouble where ever they go.

My guess? Sharon had something like this in mind when he decided that giving the Palestinians Gaza was a good idea. In fact I predicted these events in a general way (the Palestinian civil war) when he first proposed the idea. The best strategy in war is to win without fighting. In this case you get the Palestinians to fight among each other.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

No comments: