Friday, July 28, 2006

How Israel Could Attack Syria

I'm thinking the about the Desert Campaign Monty fought ('42 I think) where he did a build up right under the German noses.

Next new moon is around 23 August. So you add troops. They rotate with those in the field. You pull them back. Add more troops. Get them in live fire excercises against the hizzies. Pull them back. Rotate. Things are going poorly for the Israelis. A few thousand hizzies are holding them up. This draws troops to the front. i.e. off the flanks of the proposed advance axis.

Set up a pattern of operations.

Wait for the invitable relaxation: everything normal. The Israelis are doing their usual. Barely holding their front against the hizzies. Drawing in more hizzies as they kill those at the front. The front is static. The hizzies are winning. This is no six day war. The Israeli forces are checked by what appears to be a force barely adequate to hold them for a day let alone several weeks.

Then boom. A run on the Bekaa with a feint towards Beirut. Or perhaps a feint on the Golan or Shebba Farms front.

Syria comes in boom boom. No more air force . No more army.

There is significant agitation in Syria to get in to the fight. If Syria comes in on its own it will be closer to the full moon. Which is about 8 Aug.

Either way Syria is on the target list IMO.

Inspired by this discussion at Captain's Quarters.

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