Gaza Explodes

The Palestinans are having fun in Gaza terrorizing each other.

Ibrahim Barzak, Canadian Press, Published: Friday, February 02, 2007

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) - Hamas fighters blew up a pro-Fatah radio station in Gaza, ambulances were caught in the crossfire and gunmen exchanged heavy fire in deserted streets as a new wave of factional fighting raged Friday throughout the chaotic coastal territory.

The resurgent violence, which killed four people Friday and a total of 10 since Thursday, destroyed a brief truce between Fatah and Hamas and forced thousands of Gazans to huddle in their homes to escape the crossfire.

I see this as democracy in action, where the rule is: be careful who you vote for. Your life may depend on it.

In a symbol that the two sides had returned to open warfare, their respective radio stations stopped playing songs of national unity and broadcast songs about armed struggle and fighting the enemy.

Man, this is way worse than the talk radio wars in America where we trust Arbitron to tell us who the winners and losers are. In Gaza, if your station is still on the air you haven't lost yet.

On Friday morning, 50 officers from Abbas' presidential guard surrounded the Hamas-led Interior Ministry and exchanged fire with Hamas gunmen guarding the building. Outside of Gaza City, Hamas militants launched mortar shells at a Fatah training base in an attack that wounded 30 recruits, security officials said.

The roads of Gaza were nearly empty, sealed off by makeshift roadblocks of rubble and garbage. Only masked security officers, some with hand grenades clipped to their ammunition vests, were visible in the streets.

Fighting in northern Gaza killed two Fatah-affiliated security officers and two Hamas gunmen early Friday, according to hospital officials and Hamas.

Overnight, rival gunmen fought in the streets with mortar shells, rocket-propelled grenades and heavy calibre machine-guns. Dr. Muawiya Hassanin of the Palestinian Health Ministry said Friday morning that 120 people had been wounded since Thursday afternoon.

It is now about 1 PM local time (GMT +2) so the day is not over yet. Mortars, heavy machine guns and RPGs. Whew. You really have to keep your head down in conditions like that.

Late Thursday, hundreds of Fatah gunmen raided a Hamas stronghold, the Islamic University in Gaza City. Flames were seen leaping from two of the university buildings.

Destroying an Islamic University? How irreligious.

The violent Islamic Jihad called for an urgent meeting to resume truce talks. The mufti of Gaza called for a truce, saying Muslims shedding Muslim blood is "taboo."

Evidently neither Hamas nor Fatah has much respect for religion. Truce talks? They have been doing those for months. Always with the same results. Agreements are reached and then fighting resumes. Whatever.

Update: 02 Feb '07 1252z

It is now about 3 PM local time in Gaza and the body count is up to eight. Another two hours until dark.

Eight Palestinians were killed, including two children, in ferocios fighting Friday between Hamas and Fatah gunmen.

Also among the dead were a Palestinian Authority intelligence commander, his bodyguard, three Fatah-affiliated security officers and a 38-year-old woman, who was killed by a stray bullet in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya. The two children killed were aged eight and five, health officials said.

At least 14 people have been killed and 182 people have been wounded - 19 of them critically - in the fighting since Thursday afternoon, the Health Ministry reported.

Health officials said Gaza was running out of blood and appealed for blood donors. Ambulances had come under fire and a ricocheting bullet lightly wounded one rescue worker, they said. A Red Crescent hospital near a security base in Gaza City was hit in cross fire and its windows and gates were pocked by bullet holes.

The last round of fighting killed 50 or 60 people in five days. So I'd say they have restored the previous intensity.

What you want to watch for is the number of deaths per day (or hour depending). The greater the death rate the more intense the fight. That is obvious. The more intense the fight the longer it goes on. Not so obvious. Various estimates can be made based on the size of the forces involved. The greater the numbers in a fight the longer it goes on. I don't have a metric yet for the proportions. What we can expect from the current rate is at least five days of fighting.

Update: 03 Feb '07 0030z

Reporst as of 19:30 02 Feb local time say 11 were killed today.

A Hamas spokesman announced late Friday afternoon that a new Gaza cease-fire agreement has been reached following violent battles between Hamas and Fatah gunmen which left 11 dead over the course of the day.

Other accounts have a higher number.

Web posted at: 2/3/2007 2:53:11
Source ::: Agencies

gaza • Fighting between rival Palestinian factions escalated across Gaza yesterday, killing at least 17 people, as Hamas overran compounds used by President Mahmoud Abbas’s forces and two major universities were set ablaze.

Meanwhile, President Mahmoud Abbas and exiled Hamas supremo Khaled Meshaal yesterday declared a ceasefire between their feuding factions in the Gaza Strip.

Shortly after the ceasefire was announced, unknown gunmen opened fire on the motorcade of the Egyptian envoy to the Gaza Strip, who has been at the heart of mediation efforts between Abbas’s Fatah and the ruling Hamas faction.

There were no injuries in the incident which cast doubts on the chances of the ceasefire, which came three days after the declaration of another truce.

Yep this is going to go on for a while.

If 17 is the true number let us estimate how long the fighting might last. If the equation for time of fighting is Casualty Rate (CR) times a Days of War constant (DW) to some exponential factor N then an equation for days of fighting might look like Days of Fighting (DF) = D*CR^N. If N = 1.5 then for 10 casualties/day = 5 days of fighting - Dw would equal 0.158114. DF = DW_1.5*CR^N. If N = 2 then DW = 0.050000. If N = 2.5 then DW = 0.015811.

So let us plug in some numbers and see what happens. With a casualty rate - CR - of 17 we can make some estimates.

N = 1.5 DF = .158114 * (17)^1.5 = 11.0 days (aprox)
N = 2.0 DF = .050000 * (17)^2.0 = 14.5 days (aprox)
N = 2.5 DF = .015811 * (17)^2.5 = 18.8 days (aprox)

So if any of this makes any sense we could see 11 to 19 more days of fighting based on the latest casualties.

BTW the above exercise is an example of what operations reserarch people do.

Cross Posted at Classical Values