Global Warming Not So Hot

A new IPCC report on global warming is due out next year. It appears that a preview is available.

Mankind has had less effect on global warming than previously supposed, a United Nations report on climate change will claim next year.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent.

In a final draft of its fourth assessment report, to be published in February, the panel reports that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has accelerated in the past five years. It also predicts that temperatures will rise by up to 4.5 C during the next 100 years, bringing more frequent heat waves and storms.

The panel, however, has lowered predictions of how much sea levels will rise in comparison with its last report in 2001.

Climate change sceptics are expected to seize on the revised figures as evidence that action to combat global warming is less urgent.

Scientists insist that the lower estimates for sea levels and the human impact on global warming are simply a refinement due to better data on how climate works rather than a reduction in the risk posed by global warming.

One leading UK climate scientist, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity surrounding the report before it is published, said: "The bottom line is that the climate is still warming while our greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated, so we are storing up problems for ourselves in the future."

The IPCC report, seen by The Sunday Telegraph, has been handed to the Government for review before publication.

It warns that carbon dioxide emissions have risen during the past five years by three per cent, well above the 0.4 per cent a year average of the previous two decades. The authors also state that the climate is almost certain to warm by at least 1.5 C during the next 100 years.

What they don't tell you is that water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas and that the models used for prediction do not handle cloud cover very well.

We don't know if clouds are net reflectors or net absorbers of solar energy. Which is a pretty big hole in the models. Not to mention that the models are not very fine grained. Which means that compared to the real climate the energy balances between different regions are not well modeled.

However, Julian Morris, executive director of the International Policy Network, urged governments to be cautious. "There needs to be better data before billions of pounds are spent on policy measures that may have little impact," he said.

Kyoto, for all the money that was supposedly going to be spent to impliment it, would have reduced global warming by less than .1 degree C and delayed its onset by 4 years. In other words economic destruction for little gain.

If you are interested in doing something about global warming this Easy Low Cost No Radiation Fusion Reactor might be a good thing to invest in. If you like space travel it would be a good thing as well. Earth to Mars in 33 days. Since there appears to be global warming on Mars there is a whole lot we don't know about how climate works. As far as I have heard there are no man made greenhouse gases on Mars and not much water vapor either.

H/T The Reference Frame