Monday, July 20, 2009

Statistical Sun

While noodling around the 'net I came across a statistical study of the history of sunspots and the Earth's climate. (if the English is less than perfect it is because the person writing is a native of Finland)

When the planetary effects have been searched as a cause for sunspots, a gravitational effect is mostly assumed. My theory is purely statistical so it does not necessitate a theory about the physical background. But still one can make some speculations. Evidence strongly suggests that the sunspots have a clear electromagnetic nature. The solar system baths in the electromagnetic field of the Sun. Nasa announced in 2008 that there are some kind of electromagnetic "ropes" between the Sun and possible all the planets that have an electromagnetic field of their own (such as Earth and Jupiter for example).

I make a suggestion: The electromagnetic fields of Sun and Jupiter are partly intertwined, sometimes more, sometimes less during the nearly 12-year orbital revolution of Jupiter. Changes in eccentricity may then cause long-period changes in Sun's activity. And one thing we don't know: if the theory of everything combines gravity and electromagnetic forces the warping of space around Sun would really cause something extraordinary, like changes in the Sun's activity. One interesting thing is, that although the main effect of Jupiter seems to come via the perihelia of Jupiter, also the points where Jupiter crosses the plane of equator of the Sun, seem to have some effect.
The author takes a look at what this all might mean for the weather on Earth.
According to my theory about Jovian effect on sunspots, based on facts measured since 1700 and estimated since 1500 (Schove)
- The Jupiter perihelion and sunspot minimum never coincide and the nearing perihelion in 2011 will slow the rise of the height of sunspot cycle, as now is happening to the cycle 24.
- The Gleissberg cycle almost reached its lower limit, which is 72 years in 2005.
--- In fact this low it has not been ever after the Maunder minimum.
--- So it must go up, the short cycles of the 20th century has created a debt that must be paid.
--- This means lower cycles and if the past is a good predictor, colder times on Earth.
Now how about the NASA study of electromagnetic ropes? (this is from late 2007)
"The satellites have found evidence of magnetic ropes connecting Earth's upper atmosphere directly to the sun," said David Sibeck, project scientist for the mission at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. "We believe that solar wind particles flow in along these ropes, providing energy for geomagnetic storms and auroras."

A magnetic rope is a twisted bundle of magnetic fields organized much like the twisted hemp of a mariner's rope. Spacecraft have detected hints of these ropes before, but a single spacecraft was insufficient to map their 3D structure. THEMIS' five identical micro-satellites were able to perform the feat.

"THEMIS encountered its first magnetic rope on May 20," said Sibeck. "It was very large, about as wide as Earth, and located approximately 40,000 miles (70,000 km) above Earth's surface in a region called the magnetopause." The magnetopause is where the solar wind and Earth's magnetic field meet and push against one another like sumo wrestlers locked in combat. There, the rope formed and unraveled in just a few minutes, providing a brief but significant conduit for solar wind energy.
I wonder if the IPCC has included this in their models? Probably not since it is not well understood. How many other things that may or may not affect climate are not well understood? And that is just the known unknowns. Could there be some unknown unknown that affects climate that we are missing? Well the answer of course is: we don't know.

And on the basis of all this shaky science we are going to spend trillions on Waxman-Malarkey [pdf]? The Senate has not yet passed the bill. So we still have a chance. Contact your Senator:

The Senate

Cross Posted at Classical Values

1 comment:

RavingDave said...

very very interesting!