Thursday, March 20, 2008

A Strategic Error

I see a Republican landslide coming. McCain in the upper 50s.

In addition maybe the Ds will rethink their love for identity politics. It has not served them well.

I think McCains's "we win they lose" speaks to the American spirit. What have the Ds got? Hope and Change. BTW a poll I just saw shows Obama sinking like a stone in Ohio. Normally these things go slower. A few points a week. Obama is losing around a point a day. Given the fact that it takes about a month or two for the word to get out it is quite possible Obama will be in the 30s by convention time in late August. Right now he is in the mid 40s in Ohio. Down from a high water mark of 50 against McCain.

Republicans have done what every military commander hopes for. Get the other side in a position where they have no good options. What ever the Ds do now will piss off a large fraction of their voters. Obama has to get the nod to keep the party together. If Hillary gets the nod expect Black Conspiracy theories about how Whitey was 'ridin dirty' on the Black Man. Again. A humiliating loss by Obama will get them to attribute it to American racism. Especially Republican racism. A strategic error. The Dem party - which was united totally with victory assured - is now facing a defeat of staggering proportions. When it gets as bad as I envision there are negative coat tails. This has got to have party leaders shitting bricks.

They are now in a position where they cannot win with the black vote. Nor can they win without it. They are on the horns of a dilemma.

Successful operational maneuver can occur only in conjunction with a sound strategic counterpart. Successful maneuver at any level is derived from reserving options for yourself and denying them to your enemy. William Tecumseh Sherman would have called it putting your enemy on the horns of a dilemma, a philosophy which must transcend the battlefield.

What is the basic fault line of Democrat politics? Identity politics. I don't know who conceived of getting the first major Black Candidate to run against the first major Woman Candidate, but it was a brilliant move for fracturing the Democrat coalition. Now I admit it wasn't a Republican idea. However, one of the rules of warfare is: If your enemy is making a mistake, don't interrupt them. In fact do every thing possible to encourage them. When it is too late for the enemy to change his dispositions bring in the heavy artillery. Cut them to sheds so that they lose unit cohesion. In military operations 10% casualties (in ordinary units) is all you need to destroy unit cohesion. The Romans called it decimation, so this is really old knowledge. I'd say similar numbers are effective in politics.

Obama still has the Rezko trial to get through. And we haven't even touched on Obama's Communist mentor Frank Marshall Davis. Or Liberation Theology. Or Black Liberation Theology.

November may not just be a tactical victory for Republicans, but also a strategic one. It will be very difficult for the Democrats to get the Party back together after this one. All the kings horses....

Cross Posted at Classical Values


LarryD said...

Decimation wasn't 10% casulties, it was a unit punishment for things like mutiny or mass panic. One out of every ten was selected randomly and killed by his comrades. It did tend to result in the destruction of the unit's esprit de corps, but this is arguably due to a loss of trust in the High Command. Not a streach for an analogy to the Democrats situation.

Colloquially, it's used to refer to an extreme reduction, usually several times the 10%.

I really do hope this campaign is a jump the shark moment for Identity Politics. Maybe it'll kill Political Correctness as well.

M. Simon said...

Thanks Larry.

I learned something new.

The Duke case helped. Obama could be the capstone or should I say the tomb stone of identity politics.

Like you, I am hopeful.

BTW in modern military calculations a loss of 10% in an ordinary unit (as opposed to Airborne or similar) renders the unit effectiveness zero. At least for purposes of estimating the situation. Of course some units always surprise. They get medals.

Snake Oil Baron said...

Now all that needs to happen is for you Americans to send Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid to Monster Island for a few years while the McCainster is in the house and my world will be whole again.