Republicans Are Quitting The Party

Yes. It is true. Republicans are quitting the party in droves. Over 100,000 people have joined the Democrats in Pennsylvania alone. And there in lies a tail.

March 23, 2008 -- While John McCain waits in the wings, Republicans are bolting his party in droves to join in the historic clash between Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

In Pennsylvania, site of the next primary, on April 22, Democrats have registered more than 111,000 voters since November, boosting their ranks to nearly 4 million. Pennsylvania Republicans, meanwhile, lost 13,000 voters from a total party membership of 3.2 million.

Pennsylvania's Republican exodus has exploded since March 4, the date McCain locked up the GOP's presidential nod and rendered his future primaries moot.

Democrats added a staggering 22,000 former independents and Republicans to their ranks in one week alone - an average of 132 an hour.

During the same period, state Republicans wooed 1,000 Democratic turncoats.

The Democratic rally could prove fleeting. A new Franklin & Marshall College poll says 1 in 5 of Pennsylvania's Democrats could wind up voting for McCain if their favorite party candidate loses the nomination.

That 1 in 5 number is not just Pennsylvania. It is nation wide. If Obama gets the nod, 20% of the Democrats would defect. If Clinton gets the nod, 20% of the Democrats would defect.

Democrats represent 30% of the electorate. Let us say that ordinarily the vote in the nation would split 50/50. What would a 20% defection do to the final outcome? That would be 6%. So subtract 6% from the Democrats and add 6% to the Republicans.

The final outcome would be 56% for the Rs and 44% for the Ds. A total blow out. When the defection rate gets that big there are often coat tails. This could be very bad for Democrats in the House.

No matter what the Democrats do they are screwed. And just 6 months ago the Republican cause looked hopeless.