Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Hillary And The Diebold Effect

American Digest has a post up about Hillary's Diebold effect.

It seems that in areas where the Diebold machines are used Hillary's vote totals are up about 5% over other areas even when confounding factors like race, gender, and economics are taken into account. The math whizzes on the problem calculate the odds that it is a chance happening at 1 in 1,000.

The guy who did the analysis has a post explaining his work. Here is a pdf of the study done on the New Hampshire results. The pdf seems to show that Romney and Clinton had the biggest statistical variance. With Romney up 7% and Clinton up 5%.

In the good old days (Chicago, November 1960) you used to have to have operatives on the ground "lose" and then "find" the ballot boxes. Labor and organization intensive. Now a days all you need is a couple of computer geeks and a bank of modems.

Of course it could be just random chance. Such things do happen. Occasionally.

Election Defense Alliance has hand count vs machine count results. They appear to mirror the statistical analysis. Hmmmmmmmm. A full recount will take place starting 16 Jan. Dennis Kucinich is paying for the Dem recount. I wonder who will pay for the R recount?

Update: I have been doing some checking and it appears that Romney, who got a 7% Diebold boost in NH, would be the easiest Republican for Hillary to beat. Make of that what you will.

H/T linearthinker

Cross Posted at Classical Values

1 comment:

linearthinker said...

From the comments thread for the Science Blog post:

"...New Hampshire is unable to document its chain of custody properly, lacks written procedures, its secretary of state has said he doesn't know where its memory cards are, and LHS has been encroaching on state elections with near-total control. I'll be preparing a Special Report when I return from New Hampshire with documents and video to support this assessment. "

Posted by: CHCH
| January 16, 2008 12:51 PM

It's not too late to revert to a total paper ballot system by federal legislation. Or, is it?

That's one new law that I could endorse.