Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Hope And Change The Data

It appears that weather station data has been adjusted to hide the decline or to show warming. And this is before the adjustments performed at by the CRU Weather Masters at East Anglia.

For the past six days, several climate scientists have discovered an alarming trend: clear evidence of alteration of historical data at weather stations around the world, in order to support the contention of anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

The changes appear to affect the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN), a project of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climate Data Center. Note that this is the same agency that employs Dr. Eugene Wahl, who might be implicated in the research misconduct allegations made against Michael E. Mann at Penn State University.
What does all this mean? Probably that there are no collected reliable temperature data available on surface temperatures.

Fortunately the Warmongers have adjusted their models to conform to the bogus record. In other words - they have nothing. Proof is in the prediction. None of the models predicted the cooling of the last ten years. Time for new models and new predictions. The trouble is that no matter how good the models are prediction is essentially impossible. Why? Because climate is a chaotic system. That is: it is approximately linear with unpredictable jumps of indeterminate magnitude.

And that is not the only problem. The old data was generally recorded with min/max thermometers. Then the low and high are added together to get an average. But what if the temperature at a weather station was 50°F for 23 hours and 80°F for one hour. Is the "average temperature" really 65°F? Or is it 51.25°F? And think of the seasons. How would they bias such a record? Suppose the thermometers are accurate to .1 deg. F and the temperature is recorded to the nearest 1 deg F. That could mean an error of as much as .6°F just from recording the data. And then you feed that into a system sensitive to initial conditions (climate models) and what do you get? What ever you want depending on your selection criteria for the results.

3 comments:

Tom said...

You said...

Fortunately the Warmongers...Proof is in the prediction. None of the models predicted the cooling of the last ten years...The trouble is that no matter how good the models are prediction is essentially impossible. Why? Because climate is a chaotic system. That is: it is approximately linear with unpredictable jumps of indeterminate magnitude....

This paragraph just sums up all we need to know. Two crucial points, lack of predictive power of the model, and the chaotic nature of the system, either one would blow the climate models out of the water, but both together simply make these climate 'scientists' look ridiculous.

Plus, you coined the wonderful term 'warmongers'! I love it.

Will Kell said...

I do not like the chaotic point of view. I think climate is a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) on earth.

When you view some of these CAS, one comes to realize that even the guys that appear really smart are not (alas we are only human beings not Gods). It is currently, simply put, beyond our ability.

Has anyone noticed that none of the models account for negative feedbacks. In other words, if CO2 is heating the atmosphere should warmer days on average create longer growing periods for plants?

should that not translate into more plants consuming more CO2 and at some point equilibrium or a reduction?

What about cloud formation from warmer temps affecting the albido?

There are so many factors, so many that we don't even have a clue! Many undiscovered.

You don't see that in their reports do you!

No, it's not chaotic, it's complex and adaptive and we are incapable of doing the math.

Saludos
Will

genezeien said...

Actually, the "raw" data is fine. I've been working with the GHCN unadjusted land temperature data for 2 weeks, trying to find a warming trend. Links to raw data and my source code are at warmingslide.wordpress.com. I intend to move this to justdata.wordpress.com over the weekend.

Even though the distribution of data gathering stations moved east->west & back again, there is no evidence of warming(or cooling) in the raw data.