Monday, February 02, 2009

Hyperinflation Watch

Commenter ZenDraken at my post Stagflation And Inconvenient Debt alerted me to his site Hyperinflation Watch which has this post Hyperinflation Scenarios that you might find of interest. He covers the following scenarios with some estimates.

1. Short Duration: This is the soonest that hyperinflation could realistically hit.

2. Middle Duration: The "average" time scale scenario

3. Long Duration: Hyperinflation that is years away, but still based on current conditions.
What ever happens you can be sure that running up the national debt means that we will be screwed sooner or later, one way or another, when the debt becomes due. Quickly if we get into one of the inflation scenarios. More slowly if we have to pay off the debt or even just support the interest payments.

1 comment:

ZenDraken said...

MSimon: I'm honored by your posting, thank you.

Meanwhile, I see the hyperinflation meme rising on the Media-Attention-Meter. A lot of commenters treat hyperinflation as an event horizon, beyond which no information is available. That's not exactly true.

There is a pattern to hyperinflation, and while it can be really nasty, it is not the end of the world.

It could, however, be the end of your retirement account. On the plus side, if you can maintain income increases through the hyperinflation phase, you could possibly pay off your debts really quickly.

Just wanted to cheer things up a little...