Friday, January 09, 2009

Arab Unity

It is looking like Arab unity is taking hold of developments in the Middle East. It appears that the Arabs are united in their disagreements.

Serious differences of opinion between Syria and Egypt are making the process of reaching a Gaza cease-fire agreement difficult. Syria has advised Hamas not to accept Egypt's cease-fire proposal, arguing it is too vague, particularly regarding the issue of Israel's withdrawal from the Strip.

In Syria's opinion, which is coordinated with Iran, the Egyptian proposal may undermine Hamas' position in the Gaza Strip and present Israel with an advantage.
And giving Israel an advantage would be bad. For Hamas and Iran.

And it appears that the Philistines are chasing that chimera of national unity again.
Hamas is demanding a return to the terms of the cease-fire that were reached last June, which bar Israel from attacking the Gaza Strip and demand that the calm be applied in the West Bank after six months. By this, Hamas would show that Israel had not achieved any political gains through its Gaza operation.

The Egyptian initiative, on the other hand, calls for a cease-fire that would take effect within 48-72 hours and would open border crossings to allow humanitarian aid into the Strip.

During the cease-fire, Egypt would hold talks with Israel and Hamas to reach a long-term agreement, and at a later stage would resume the talks between Hamas and Fatah over forming a national unity government.

Hamas is opposed to this proposal because it believes it recognizes Mahmoud Abbas as the president of the Palestinian Authority. His term officially ends Friday.

Syria has urged Hamas to demand that the first stage of a deal include the opening of the Rafah border crossing, a demand that Egypt rejects.

The Egyptians are only willing to open the crossing on the basis of the terms of a 2005 agreement, which requires the presence of Palestinian Authority officials, European Union observers and Israeli cameras.
No matter what agreement is reached, Hamas is going to get the short end of the stick. Iran is out of money and the rest of the Arab world is out of patience. All that is left now is the working out of the surrender terms.

So what is being discussed relative to surrender terms?
The United Nations Security Council on Thursday voted in favor of a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The United States abstained from the vote.

On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.
You have to love the UN. We agree. We agree! To what? That hasn't been decided yet. The greatest clown show on earth. Except for the US Congress.
On Thursday the head of the Arab League said that key Arab nations and Western powers had reached an agreement on the deal.

Amr Moussa on Thursday told reporters an agreement was reached, but diplomats said the exact wording of the text was being fine-tuned by ministers behind closed doors.
I suppose they have an agreement in principle. And what is the principle? Let Israel and Hamas fight it out until one or the other gets tired.
"Peace will be made in the region, not in New York, but actions in New York can support the search for peace in the region," a senior British official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

With Palestinian civilian casualties mounting, the Arabs are under intense pressure to get a resolution - and several diplomats said they want it before Friday prayers at mosques in the region.

"We are not going to leave without a vote today," Moussa told reporters. The key elements are the withdrawal (of Israeli forces), cease-fire, the humanitarian situation, the opening of crossings.

But France, which holds the Security Council presidency this month, might want to delay a vote until Friday, diplomats said.
Egypt and Israel hold the keys to Gaza. They at least are in agreement. "We want nothing to do with the rabble in Gaza. The longer the Philistines stay penned in the Gaza cage the better for all concerned." Egypt, like Israel is not happy with their connection to the Gazans.

How about the Gazans? What are they currently after?
In a possible sign Hamas was unwilling to compromise yet, a senior Hamas official in Syria, Mohammed Nazzal, told Syrian TV on Thursday that the group would never surrender and vowed to fight house to house against Israeli troops in Gaza.

A joint statement issued by Palestinian groups based in Syria's capital
Thursday rejected the Egyptian-French initiative, saying it would undermine Gazans' resistance and give Israel a free hand to continue aggression.

Hamas is normally a member of the coalition, but it wasn't clear if it signed the statement. Hamas officials in Syria were not available for comment. Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon who is close to the group's top leader, said he was not aware of the statement.
Hamas wants a chance to fight house to house where they do best. The Israeli response of course is to lay siege to the major cities and let hunger and thirst do their work for them. That takes a while depending on the amount of stored food and water. Which would argue for another week or two of fighting given that pumped water supplies were cut off at the start of the dust up.

The fact that one top Hamas guy was not willing to sign on to a blood and guts statement may indicate their resolve is weakening. No matter what happens though the Hamas guys can point to one statement or another and say "that was our position all along." Because Arabs never lose wars and they are always right.

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