Well Calculated Moves
I was commenting at Winds of Change and some one asked if Bush had thought through his moves:
And, of course, it helps to think through what comes next.Obviously given the moves and counter moves going on Russia has thought though its actions to the last decimal point and is advancing its position internationally.
1. Poland gets an anti-missile defense.
2. Ukraine is working to expel the Russians from the Black sea.
3. Ukraine and Poland get mutual defense pacts with the US.
4. Its international prestige declines hourly.
5. It has made abundantly clear that doing business with it is a very risky proposition.
6. Its population is declining 1/2% a year
7. Its birth rate is 1.4 - replacement rate is 2.1
8. It exports its women - brides and white slavery
And it is not over yet.
As Canaris said to a Spanish diplomat who asked a similar question about Germany's leader of the time: "Calculated nothing at all."
The next question of course is what happens when Russia cuts off Europe's gas and oil?
My take on all this - Russian oil output is on the decline with the expulsion of Western oil companies. It has to conquer or die. Germany 1939. Japan 1941.
My guess? Russia is bluffing and its bluff has been called.
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And of its arsenal of nuclear tipped missiles - how many will work when fired? As many as 30%? 50%? Or 10%?
When you bluff it is wisest not to let your opponent see your cards. i.e. had Russia pulled out after its initial depredations it might have kept its credibility intact. Now it has to show its cards or fold. Bush is calling their bluff.
Had Europe in the run up to WW2 stood firm on Czechoslovakia, or Austria resisted the Anschluss, a general war in Europe might well have been avoided. I believe that is the motivation behind current events. Once you let the little guys get picked off it then comes to a bigger war not too much later.
”Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonor. They chose dishonor. They will have war." Winston Churchill
Cross Posted at Classical Values
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7 comments:
Those grapes sure taste sour, don't they? Your client's western-trained professional army got its ass kicked, despite numerical superiority, an element of surprise and better equipment, by a bunch of conscripts with vintage gear, worse uniforms and barely any air support. Get over it.
And Russia has made a bunch of new friends. Has gained prestige. And 2014 Olympic Games look to be a rousing success. Tourists will be flocking to the area looking forward to the next war.
Russia is good at tactics. Good at strategy. However, on the plane of grand strategy it has always been run by idiots. Always.
No one who has ever been in the Russian orbit wants back in.
BTW if Russia has defeated the Georgian Army - where are the prisoners? When you defeat an army you always get prisoners.
Barely any air support? No surprise there. The Georgians were shooting down Russian aircraft. After a number of bombing runs on the pipeline: no hits. I'd withdraw my air force under those circumstances too.
And Russia has made a bunch of new friends. Has gained prestige. And 2014 Olympic Games look to be a rousing success. Tourists will be flocking to the area looking forward to the next war.
All will be forgotten in a month, let alone 6 years.
Russia is good at tactics. Good at strategy. However, on the plane of grand strategy it has always been run by idiots. Always.
No one who has ever been in the Russian orbit wants back in.
What does this have to do with Georgia's loss?
BTW if Russia has defeated the Georgian Army - where are the prisoners? When you defeat an army you always get prisoners.
On their track team in Beijing. BTW, 15 years ago Abhazian and Ossetian rag-tag armies beat the Georgians all by themselves. They are a macho culture, but can never backup their trashtalk.
Barely any air support? No surprise there. The Georgians were shooting down Russian aircraft. After a number of bombing runs on the pipeline: no hits. I'd withdraw my air force under those circumstances too.
The Russians are driving around the Georgian countryside demolishing Georgian military installations as we speak. But you say the Georgians won the airwar? Good for them.
"despite numerical superiority"
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???
so?
I think you should ask the FSB for a raise. Your American is excellent.
Your arguments could use some improvement, however.
And what does Russia's stupid grand strategy have to do with Georgia? Well they are not interested in Russian domination. Countries ruled by Russia do not prosper. Those in the American orbit do much better. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc.
A country exporting its women is a dying country. Go quietly. It will be better for all concerned.
As to forgetting?
Americans were finally forgetting the Cold War 20 years on. Heck, I even had faith that Russia would honor its promises.
I admit now that it was stupid of me to believe 500 years of culture could be erased in 20 years.
I believe you have convinced quite a few others of that proposition. Congrats. You have won.
doug:
"despite numerical superiority"
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???
Participating in the action, obviously. 10 to 1 at first, now no less than 2 to 1.
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