Friday, February 04, 2005

It can't be done

I'm involved in a little discussion of the Iranian situation over at Regime Change Iran. A lot of the discussion revolves around the likely hood and the capability of armed intervention. Let's take a look at a sign post on the likelyhood issue first.

You must have missed 60 Minutes last night. They did a bit on nuclear materials around the world. The report focused on Iran. The reporter - a lefty - asked why the US didn't just go around with its military forces and collect the stuff.

I do not think military action is off the table.
At this point some people go into the "it can't be done mode, blah, blah,blah,". I reply as follows:
Will some one please tell my why taking Iran militarily is not possible?

Didn't we hear the same about Afghanistan? Iraq was going to be a quagmire and the city problem was going to cost tremendous casualties. Then it happens and the line is: "no one can stand up to the strongest military in the world". Actually the truth is a little more complicated but not by much: "no one can stand up to the strongest and smartest military in the world".

Why strike only at nuclear facilities even if those are your ultimate target? Maybe all the US has to do is to strike the police stations. A popular uprising then does the rest.

Think outside the box. The US military does.


Dave Schuler said...

Did you read James Fallows's article in the Atlantic Monthly a few months ago? It's online and I could dredge up the link if you like. He reports on a war-gaming of Iran that took place some time ago. The Pentagon folk concluded that military intervention to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons was imprudent.

That doesn't mean it won't or can't happen, of course. But it does create some doubts.

M. Simon said...

Dave I wrote about this earlier in: Atlantic War Games Iran.

I was skeptical about "it can't be done" then. I'm skeptical now.

I have a friend in what is effectively Special Forces. He says Iran will be easier than Iraq.

I'm inclined to agree.

1. The population in Iran is very pro-American and anti-mullah

2. They have seen what we did in Iraq. This point is especially critical.

Now the fact that no one of any importance thinks it can be done ought to put the mullahs at ease. A relaxed animal is easier to kill. So the fact that "it can't be done is widely believed is very good.

I'm just not a follower of the conventional wisdom.

In any case I think uncertainty is helpful. So I'm trying to throw doubt into the mix. Perhaps they will give up peacefully (The Orange Revolution). Perhaps the citizens will rise up and save us the trouble.

We shall see.