It looks like the scientists who have predicted unending global warming caused by CO2 emissions may be in serious error.
No one knows exactly how much Earth's climate will warm due to carbon emissions, but a new study this week suggests scientists' best predictions about global warming might be incorrect. The study, which appears in Nature Geoscience, found that climate models explain only about half of the heating that occurred during a well-documented period of rapid global warming in Earth's ancient past. The study, which was published online today, contains an analysis of published records from a period of rapid climatic warming about 55 million years ago known as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, or PETM.If this study holds up we are going to be wasting vast sums of money (robbed is a better term) if Waxman-Malarkey passes the Senate.
"In a nutshell, theoretical models cannot explain what we observe in the geological record," said oceanographer Gerald Dickens, a co-author of the study and professor of Earth science at Rice University. "There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models."
This is nothing new for regular readers of this blog. I have thought for a long time that the models were not well connected to reality. What is new is that the nails are getting more frequently pounded into the AGW coffin. People are starting to lose faith - especially considering the cold summer we have been having in much of the USA.
Consider a couple of books that have come out in the last year:
Air Con: The Seriously Inconvenient Truth About Global Warming
Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science
It seems that the faith is starting to lose adherents. It seems that the science is not so settled.
Even the guys at Real Climate are starting to hedge their bets.
Nature (with hopefully some constructive input from humans) will decide the global warming question based upon climate sensitivity, net radiative forcing, and oceanic storage of heat, not on the type of multi-decadal time scale variability we are discussing here. However, this apparent impulsive behavior explicitly highlights the fact that humanity is poking a complex, nonlinear system with GHG forcing – and that there are no guarantees to how the climate may respond.Say, weren't they very big promoters of "the science is settled" meme. Yes they were. I guess that now a days the science is not so settled. Some one call Al Gore. Stat.
H/T VG at Watts Up With That
Cross Posted at Classical Values