Sunday, November 23, 2008

The Two Largest Political Parties In America

What are the two largest political parties in America? One is the Democrat Party. The other is the Independent Party. The Third largest? The Republican Party.

The balance of party identification in the American electorate now favors the Democratic Party by a decidedly larger margin than in either of the two previous presidential election cycles.

In 5,566 interviews with registered voters conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press during the first two months of 2008, 36% identify themselves as Democrats, and just 27% as Republicans.

The share of voters who call themselves Republicans has declined by six points since 2004, and represents, on an annualized basis, the lowest percentage of self-identified Republican voters in 16 years of polling by the Center.

The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way.

By comparison, in 2004 about equal numbers of independents leaned toward both parties.
If you look at the graphs provided at the site it looks like the rate of shrinkage of the Republican Party is accelerating. And the really bad news for Republicans? In Swing States the Democrats are advancing and in Republican States the Party identification is evenly split.

If Republicans don't find a way to enlarge their tent they could go the way of the Whigs in a few more election cycles. I'd like to see a libertarian type party that was adult on foreign policy and defense take its place if it goes down.

4 comments:

tomcpp said...

That's the power of a one-sided media.

You make the mistake of thinking there's anything you can do about it. Kumbayah beats sanity anyday ... except the day of the disaster it inevitably generates.

There is exactly one thing republicans can do : show the people every last screwup of Obama.

Don't let ANYONE forget that Obama would NOT raise taxes and give every last american making less than $250000 per year a $5000 check.

Start a program interviewing homeless people asking where they'd live with Obama's $5000 per year. Blame Obama for screwing up his impossible program. Ask him where the hope is for those people, ask him where the change is.

That's assuming it matters at all. The last great democratic victory was followed by WWII. And to be honest, this one is showing a lot of signs that WWIII is just around the corner.

Obama's a demagogue. As soon as Americans call for blood (which is going to be soon if his security policies are implemented) he's going to proverbially nuke mecca to provide it. That would guarantee him a second term too.

M. Simon said...

If he Nukes Mecca I'll vote for him.

RavingDave said...

"Independent" is not a party. It's a collection of people who have decided not to Identify with a party.

Considering the Low Regard that both parties currently enjoy, it is perfectly reasonable that many people wouldn't want to associate with either one of them.

David

M. Simon said...

Dave,

That is why "Independent" is in quotes. I was trying to indicate irony.