Until 3 January 2011

Bob Shrum thinks the Democrats will hold the House and Senate. He starts off with:

Maybe I’m wrong.

Well DUH! I guess I should allow him the courtesy of a few more words though.

...there are signs that the Republican tide is receding. Karl Rove would understand – the same dynamic was the key to George W. Bush’s narrow re-election in 2004, when the GOP base showed up to vote in numbers that defied the polling models. This time, it’s the Democratic base that’s stirring—and finally engaging—and the survey research is registering the shift. In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the Republican advantage in the ballot for Congress has declined from nine points to three.

Maybe. Or it could just be the normal random fluctuations from polling.

Of course the big unknown is the unlikely voters on the right. The friends and family the Tea Party People bring to the voting booth. I have some examples.

Coakley (D) was ahead of Brown (R) by an average of 13 points in the polls in a very Democratic state. Brown won by 5 points.

Corzine (D) was ahead of Christie (R) by an average of 7 points in the polls in a Democratic state. Christie won by 4 points.

MCDonnell (R) was ahead of Deeds (D) by an average of 4 points in the polls in a swing state. MCDonnell won by 18 points.

Average Swing:- 14 points

So is this definitive? No. Is it indicative. Yes.

One thing Shrum can be absolutely certain of. Democrats will hold the Congress until 3 January 2011. After that? I don't think so.