Saturday, August 23, 2008

Obama Pulls Back

The Obama campaign is pulling advertising from Republican leaning Battletound States. Let me do a list of those states and their electoral votes.

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 15
Montana - 3
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Florida - 27
Virginia - 13

That is a total of 79 Electoral College (EC) votes out of 270 required to win. A little over 1/4 of the winning requirements.

This map shows McCain up by ten EC votes. If Obama is not going to make it up in the battleground states how does he expect to win?

My guess? He doesn't expect to win. In any case it seems like a stupid strategy. You pull back in states that are solid R or D and fight in the battlegrounds. Standard military tactics. You draw reserves from the places you are strong and try to make a breakthrough where the enemy is weakest. Evidently Obama is not a student of military history.


Neil said...

The linked Fox article is right--only Virginia and Florida are actually surprising.

I mean, c'mon--North Dakota, Montana, and Georgia were never going to vote for Obama. Only in their (wet) dreams did they have any reason to be running ads there. It says more about the media-induced echo chamber around the Obama campaign than anything else.

But if they're giving up even temporarily on Virginia and Florida, that's saying something entirely different. And if McCain chooses Romney for VP, he might peel off Michigan, too. (In addition to bringing a veneer of executive experience to the ticket.)

It now appears McCain can at least hold his own. It's definitely not going to be a blowout for Obama. The more interesting question now is whether Republicans can hold their position in the Senate.


ADDED: Just as I hit "preview" on this, CNN dropped a note in my e-mail that Obama picked Biden for Veep. The all-blabbermouth-Senator ticket. That's not going to help much....

Doug said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Doug said...

""The all-blabbermouth-Senator ticket.""

"A man I’m proud to call my friend.
A man who will be the next president of the United States,
Barack America,

Biden said, per ABC News’ Sunlen Miller

-ht al-Bob