Monday, June 15, 2009

Michael Totten On Iran



Michael Totten as usual has very good sources. Let us start with the fact that in the above video a phalanx of police is retreating before a mob.

Then Michael gives this excerpt from Shah of Shahs.
Now the most important moment, the moment that will determine the fate of the country, the Shah, and the revolution, is the moment when one policeman walks from his post toward one man on the edge of the crowd, raises his voice, and orders the man to go home. The policeman and the man on the edge of the crowd are ordinary, anonymous people, but their meeting has historic significance.

They are both adults, they have both lived through certain events, they have both their individual experiences.

The policeman’s experience: If I shout at someone and raise my truncheon, he will first go numb with terror and then take to his heels. The experience of the man at the edge of the crowd: At the sight of an approaching policeman I am seized by fear and start running. On the basis of these experiences we can elaborate a scenario: The policeman shouts, the man runs, others take flight, the square empties.

But this time everything turns out differently. The policeman shouts, but the man doesn’t run. He just stands there, looking at the policeman. It’s a cautious look, still tinged with fear, but at the same time tough and insolent. So that’s the way it is! The man on the edge of the crowd is looking insolently at uniformed authority. He doesn’t budge. He glances around and sees and sees the same look on other faces. Like his, their faces are watchful, still a bit fearful, but already firm and unrelenting. Nobody runs though the policeman has gone on shouting; at last he stops. There is a moment of silence.

We don’t know whether the policeman and the man on the edge of the crowd already realize what has happened. The man has stopped being afraid – and this is precisely the beginning of the revolution. Here it starts.
The question is, will this nothing left to lose attitude be sustainable? Will the boat rock far enough to tip over? So far the regime has been able to contain these eruptions. It all depends on the balance of fear. And chaos. In chaos small perturbations can have big effects.

Well you know Michael has way more. Visit him. And drop him a buck or two.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

1 comment:

rumcrook said...

Im not going to put money on the protesters.