Sunday, January 06, 2008

Meanwhile Out West

It is starting to look more and more like Fred is every one's second choice. The candidate that everyone can compromise on. The Washington Post reports that Fred came in second in Wyoming picking up 3 delegates out of 12 up for grabs.

By the time the votes were counted, Romney had won eight delegates while Thompson picked up three and Hunter netted one. Twelve delegates were selected today, while another two will be apportioned in May at a statewide convention.

The Republican National Committee cut Wyoming's number of national convention delegates in half, to 14, in retaliation for its early voting, but Laramie County GOP Chairman Jerry Zellars said the decision to accelerate its caucuses still paid off.
In other election news it looks like McCain is surging in New Hampshire.
MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — John McCain overtook Mitt Romney for the New Hampshire lead in a new poll released Saturday, three days before the nation's first primary.

Taken in the two days following the Iowa caucuses, the poll shows Romney losing ground after the former Massachusetts governor's disappointing second-place showing in the leadoff state; McCain continued his steady climb since the Arizona senator's campaign hit a low point last summer.

Mike Huckabee, the Iowa victor, didn't get a bounce in the survey from his Iowa triumph, meaning the race in New Hampshire has become a two-man fight.

McCain, who won New Hampshire's primary in his first bid eight years ago and wants a repeat, had 33 percent to Romney's 27 percent in the poll. All others trailed by double-digits; Rudy Giuliani had 14 percent while Mike Huckabee had 11 and Ron Paul had 9 in the CNN-WMUR poll.
It looks like Fred is not even in the running in New Hampshire. He is planning to spend a couple of days in the state before the election. If he gets around 5% I think that would be a fair showing for the effort. If he gets 10% or above that would be spectacular. Below 3% would be a disappointment. Still he will be going on to North Carolina.

Speaking of which. Fred looks to do good there. In a mock election in Langston Focus School in Danville Fred did real well.
“This was a chance for students to learn about who is running for president,” said Jared Coleman, a 12th-grader at Langston Focus School.

Obama beat Thompson, an actor best known for his role as District Attorney Arthur Branch on “Law & Order,” by a tally of 82 to 13. Republican Mitt Romney got a few write-in votes.

In the primary, Obama beat New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton with 50 votes to 25. Thompson beat U.S. Sen. John McCain in the GOP primary with 33 votes to 26. Students and faculty could vote in both primaries.

Coleman and fellow students Jeffrey Keene and Shonteca Henry canvassed voters in each classroom. They would make a brief presentation on behalf of each candidate and the voting took a matter of minutes.
Of course this is not a real election. Still, kids have a tendency to strongly reflect their parent's views. So Thompson did well in the "primary" and got skunked in the "general". I think that is OK for now.

And just for fun: the Paulites who were expected to do well in Wyoming, got zero convention votes. They are crying in their beer. If a Libertarian can't do well in Wyoming, what are the odds?

Update: Well it looks like I screwed the pooch. North Carolina is not going to vote until May. It is South Carolina in January. You can't tell the players without a score card giving the dates of all the primaries.

So what about South Carolina? Glad you asked. Jim Geraghty of National Review has a puff piece by a Thompson operative and some words of caution.
My only note of skepticism in this thinking is that there's not just New Hampshire before South Carolina, but Michigan as well. Thompson has gone to a midwestern state of Iowa and did, meh, okay I guess. He won't do well in New Hampshire, and might be in asterisk territory, as Suffolk and Zogby have him at 2 percent. There isn't a ton of polling on Michigan, but what there is doesn't have Thompson making much of a splash. So it may be a long stretch before Thompson is back on friendly territory in South Carolina.

But the potential secret weapon? Wyoming, this Saturday. The Thompson Associate tells me, "Fred has actually spent time there. And don’t forget Liz Cheney is working with us."
Well Fred did OK in Wyoming. The rest is for the future. Which is hard to predict.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

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