Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Advance Warning

It looks like the Russians are giving us advance warning of an American strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

WASHINGTON DC, — The long awaited US military attack on Iran is now on track for the first week of April, specifically for 4 am on April 6, the Good Friday opening of Easter weekend, writes the well-known Russian journalist Andrei Uglanov in the Moscow weekly “Argumenty Nedeli.” Uglanov cites Russian military experts close to the Russian General Staff for his account.

The attack is slated to last for 12 hours, according to Uglanov, from 4 am until 4 pm local time. Friday is the sabbath in Iran. In the course of the attack, code named Operation Bite, about 20 targets are marked for bombing; the list includes uranium enrichment facilities, research centers, and laboratories.

The first reactor at the Bushehr nuclear plant, where Russian engineers are working, is supposed to be spared from destruction. The US attack plan reportedly calls for the Iranian air defense system to be degraded, for numerous Iranian warships to be sunk in the Persian Gulf, and for the most important headquarters of the Iranian armed forces to be wiped out.
I have a number of problems with this report.

Let me start with some comments by reader linearthinker.He looks into the channel this information was disseminated in:
Checking background of source article on Operation Bite at IntelDaily reveals following:

IntelDaily carries leftist, peace movement, IndyMedia articles, although they present themselves as objective sources for issues.

"...The Intelligence Daily is an independent, uncensored news site that draws in information from a variety of credible sources about important and controversial issues."

They appear to be a mouthpiece for leftwing sponsered agendas and Bush/Neo-Con bashing.
OK. That still doesn't tell us anything about truth or falseness of the info. linearthinker has this to say about the order of battle: i.e. that it will be a B-52 strike.
ONLY B-52s? What about the B-1s, B-2s, F-118 Stealth Fighters, FA-18s, F-16s, F-15Cs and the newly operational F-22 Raptors? Doesn't prove anything one way or the other, but it would seem top grade intelligence would have a better rundown on the key items in the order of battle.
Here is a bit more from the "report":
"Observers comment that this dispatch...deserves to be taken with the utmost seriousness by pro-peace forces around the world."
To which linearthinker replies:
In other words, prepare to take to the streets with your cardboard signs and face paint?
Here is my thinking on the nature of the report:

Operational details (time of strike) would not be released to operational units until 24 to 48 hours before the strike. Standard operational security.

If the Ruskys are giving out operational details this far in advance they have just blown their mole in the Pentagon. I think that is unlikely.

If you add in the recent Russian denial of fuel for the Iranian reactor, it may be that this is all a cover for what the real strike will attack and when it will happen. Or it may just be a "recon in force" type operation to see how the Iranians will react. Or it may be an attempt to get the Iranians to strike the first blow out of fear. Or any number of other possibilities.

I'd put this report in the rumor category for now. linearthinker tells me this is getting a lot of play in Europe and that Pat Buchanan's Pitch Fork Brigade is blaming the usual suspects. (Hint: Begins with a J ends with a W and has a vowel in the middle.) Pat blames Pelosi for taking out the "no strike on Iran without prior approval" language from the military appropriations bill just passed by the House. Pat says Pelosi caved to AIPAC pressure.

If this is true and it is designed to set back Iranian weapons production by a couple of years it could fit in with the economic blockade of Iran. However, the necessity of a strike is dependent on what the analysis of Iranian intentions are once they have nukes and how close Iran's enemies think the Iranians are to series production of nuke weapons.

Additional thought: Maybe we are trying to get the Iranians to "bite". Funny name for an operation if it is a true name. Plus what better way to see that this gets widely reported than to put it in the hands of the Bush haters.

Speaking of Bush haters here is the DU reaction.

Just for balance Free Republic chimes in.

H/T commenter linearthinker

3 comments:

Karridine said...

"However, the necessity of a strike is dependent on what the analysis of Iranian intentions are once they have nukes-"

With respect, Sir, if "Iran will WIPE Israel OFF THE MAP!!" doesn't communicate their nuclear intent, what more do they need?

"-and how close Iran's enemies think the Iranians are to series production of nuke weapons."

Ahmadinejad has been crowing since late last year, that "April marks the great Point of Change!"

Our world can ill afford another case of Schickelgruber Deafness! TAKE Iran at its word, indeed!

Anonymous said...

Random thoughts. Disinformation? Scare the Iranians into moving equipment, supplies, air defense assets? Scare them into a provocation? The Russians playing their own game?

We certainly appear to be ready for the Herman Option, is this a kind of feint?

Lucid said...

Actually, the source of the article is RIA Novosti (Russian New & Information Agency)

And for the record what Iran's Ahmadinejad actually said was “this regime that is occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time.” In context he was citing Imam Khomeini's reference that as with the fall of the Shah’s regime, the Soviet Union, and Saddam Hussein. So, too, the “occupying regime” in Jerusalem would someday be gone. His message was, in essence, “This too shall pass.”