Hizballah Rearms

I had such high hopes that the Lebanese March 14th Movement (anti-Syrian) would call on the UNFIL troops to disarm Hizballah or at least keep it from rearming. Global Terrorism Analysis reports that the Lebanese anti-Syrians have no such intentions.

As the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) completes its withdrawal this week from southern Lebanon, there are fears in Israel that the Hezbollah movement is consolidating and even expanding its arsenal, in contradiction to UN resolution 1701, which calls for the Shiite group to disarm. Hezbollah continues its anomalous position as Lebanon's only armed political faction. The other movements disarmed according to the Ta'if Accords after the conclusion of Lebanon's civil war in 1990. At the time, Hezbollah was engaged in a guerrilla struggle against the IDF occupation of south Lebanon. The continued possession of its Syrian- and Iranian-supplied weapons has brought Hezbollah into conflict with Lebanon's anti-Syrian "March 14" political alliance.

The 15,000 UN peacekeepers to be deployed in Lebanon are intended to play an important role in preventing Syria and Iran from rearming Hezbollah. In practice, however, the UNIFIL force views its mandate as simply supporting the efforts of the Lebanese Army to restore security and sovereignty over south Lebanon. The Lebanese Army, for its part, has come to a private agreement with Hezbollah whereby only those arms carried in public will be confiscated. The poorly equipped Lebanese regulars will not be carrying out any "search-and-seizures" for supplies. Thus far, the only arms collected have been weapons abandoned during the fighting. UNIFIL's commander, French General Alain Pellegrini, made it clear that the UN peacekeepers will not be mounting patrols, but merely manning checkpoints in south Lebanon (Jerusalem Post, September 26). If arms are carried openly, the peacekeepers will report the infractions to the Lebanese Army for action.

Israel's expectations are rather different, as it looks to the Lebanese Army to "initiate efforts to locate arms depots and armed Hezbollah fighters and disarm them" (Haaretz, September 20). Israel threatened to postpone its withdrawal from south Lebanon until Hezbollah was disarmed (at least south of the Litani River), but completed its pullout under international pressure even though it became apparent by the end of September that no such disarmament was imminent.

Another war is in the offing. I wonder how soon?

There are unverified reports that Hezbollah has begun moving arms into storage inside Palestinian refugee camps in south Lebanon. Neither the Lebanese Army nor UNIFIL have the authority to search these camps. Israel sent a Foreign Ministry delegation to Moscow in mid-August with evidence that Russian weapons supplied to Syria (especially RPGs and Kornet anti-tank missiles) were in use by Hezbollah during the war. The Kremlin disclaims any knowledge of these arms transfers, but Israel expects Russia to ensure a halt to such transfers (Ekho Moskvy Radio, September 5). Under the current rules of engagement, UNIFIL has only a limited ability to prevent the rearming of Hezbollah. Nasrallah is in some ways a captive of the success of his own movement. Disarming the "glorious resistance" will only be possible if Nasrallah can guarantee material gains for the Shiites in exchange.

It looks like the next big gains for the Shia will be further destruction of their living quarters and infrastructure.

Israel made a big mistake this past summer by not taking the war to Syria. It will now reap the whirlwind.

If the Democrats take over the House this November, I do believe they will throw Iraq and Israel under the bus in exchange for a hudna (a temporary truce to be abrogated as soon as the correlation of forces is in the granter of the hudna's favor).

The world will be a more interesting place although a lot less friendly.