Let me start out by saying that this is speculation of the rankest sort. I have nothing objective to go by. The best way to start this is to look at Resident ∅s chances given current conditions.
Current economic conditions are terrible. The jobless rate is running from between 9% and 20% depending on how you do the count. And the housing market isn't coming back any time soon. So he can't run on his economic record.
Hope and Change? A tad too threadbare this time around. You can only be the first black (not a Muslim) President once.
So what do I think a winning issue for the left will be? What issue will be a large negative for every Republican with a good chance of winning the nomination? The Drug War. All it has to do is explode in the right way in 2012.
So what triggered this off for me? George Soros and Richard Branson among others met a little over a week ago in New York to discuss Drug War Strategy.
Gathered within the plush confines of New York's Waldorf Astoria hotel is a veritable UN of former presidents from around the world, George Soros, the billionaire investor, and Sir Richard Branson. Everyone is talking about drugs, though no one seems to be having much fun.Yep. It isn't working. 3 Men Shot, Tortured, Beaten & Then Hung Over Bridge in Monterrey, Mexico.
These luminaries are in New York to support the Global Commission on Drug Policy, a thinktank that is calling for an end to the so-called "war on drugs". Branson, who is one of the commissioners, is putting some cash in, as is Soros. Branson's son, Sam, is working on a documentary – a film his father hopes will do for the drugs debate what An Inconvenient Truth did for global warming.
The rest of the commission are serious people, including the former presidents and prime minsters of Colombia, Greece, Mexico and Switzerland, the UN's Kofi Annan, the writers Carlos Fuentes and Mario Vargas Llosa. But it's Branson the cameras flash at most during the press conference. Afterwards, the group is photographed together, and Branson plays the clown, throwing his hands up in the air and whipping out that megawatt smile. It's cheesy as hell, but everyone laughs.
Seldom has he goofed around with more serious a purpose. It's been 50 years since the United Nations orchestrated a global convention on drug prohibition, and 40 years since president Richard Nixon declared a war on drugs. It isn't working
Another report on the Global Commission on Drug Policy from Al Jazeera.
A report by the Global Commission on Drug Policy has concluded that the global war on drugs has failed. The commission, which includes a group of politicians and former world leaders, says the current anti-drug policy has been fuelling organised crime, costing taxpayers millions of dollars and causing thousands of deaths.They don't seem very upbeat about the drug war.
The authors of the report have called for some drugs to be legalised and for an end to the criminalisation of drug users.
They also criticised governments that claim the current war on drugs is effective. But, the White House has rejected the findings, saying the report is misguided. The US government has spent more than $2.5 trillion fighting the war on drugs over the past 40 years.
How about the LA Times?
A report by the Global Commission on Drug Policy, which includes former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan and past presidents of Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, recommends that governments try new ways of legalizing and regulating drugs, especially marijuana, as a way to deny profits to drug cartels.Ah. Yes. The Mexico thing. How hard would it be to create an incident in Mexico that stayed on the front pages for weeks? Not too difficult.
The recommendation was swiftly dismissed by the Obama administration and the government of Mexico, which are allied in a violent 4 1/2 -year-old crackdown on cartels that has killed more than 38,000 people in Mexico.
So was the Commission a typical left wing operation? No. Former Secretary of State Under Reagan George Schultz was also on the Commission.
Of course the Russians are against any change that would cut into their mafia's profits.
Russia's narcotics control chief has slammed an international drug policy report as propaganda of drug abuse and accused its authors of lobbying the interests of narcotics mafia.What Mr. Ivanov conveniently fails to mention is that without Prohibition there would be no excess profits. Prohibition is why a pile of vegetables is worth its weight in gold. So maybe it is Mr. Ivanov who supports the cartels.
“We have to realise that we are dealing with global propaganda of illicit drugs here,” said Federal Drug Control Service head Viktor Ivanov, commenting on a report by the Global Commission on Drug Policy.
The report, released on Thursday, said the global war on narcotics was a failure and recommended that governments decriminalise drug use and give addicts access to some drugs, especially marijuana, to undercut organised crime.
Mr. Ivanov hinted that the former United Nations Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, who leads the Commission, could have links with international drug cartels. He recalled that drugs production in Afghanistan had increased threefold when Mr. Annan was the U.N. head.
This propaganda campaign is linked to the huge profits [from sales of illicit drugs] that are estimated at about $800 billion annually, Mr. Ivanov told reporters on Friday.
Of course we have some geniuses in America who know the "truth".
The office of White House drug tsar Gil Kerlikowske rejected the panel's recommendations.Let us get something straight:
"Drug addiction is a disease that can be successfully prevented and treated," said a spokesman for the Office of National Drug Control Policy.
Can some one please tell me how a war on pain relievers is going to fix a chronic pain problem? If addiction is caused by pain (trauma) how exactly does Kerlikowske intend to prevent that? Obviously he doesn't say.
In any case the winds of change are blowing. A little under half the people in America are against the Drug War. It wouldn't take much of a shift to make it a little over half. And that is all you need to win an election. Every single major Republican candidate for President and most of the minor ones are vulnerable on the issue. If I was George Soros I'd be cooking up a plot. There is evidence that he may very well be.
Cross Posted at Classical Values