Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Demographics



All I can say is that I have done my part. My family includes four children. Yes. It has come with a great economic cost. But what about the future all you hedonists? What kind of world do you want to live in?

H/T ravingdave at Talk Polywell

Cross Posted at Classical Values

22 comments:

Fritz said...

Would it not be cheaper to corrupt some Muslims?

RavingDave said...

This video illustrates graphically, some of what I was trying to explain to Joe Dead over at Talk Polywell. Being an Athiest (or Agnostic) is all fine and good, but while tolerance of such beliefs are common here in America, they are most certainly not acceptable to some people who have a differing belief system. People can profess their Athiesm or Agnosticism to this other culture at their own peril!

As it appears, if we are going to have some sort of religion Dominating the culture, Better it be one which is more benign.

I worry about the future, not just for my own sake, but for my four kids as well.

David

M. Simon said...

Well obviously we need a Seculars For Bigger Families Club.

RavingDave said...

A corollary to the point is Abortion and Homosexuality. In a clash of civilizations it is those with superior numbers that win. In ancient times (the ages during which Morality evolved to serve a secular purpose) the idea that people would limit their growth in numbers was considered D*mn near treasonous, for it is the numbers of people on your side that made the difference of whether you were free or enslaved (or exterminated) by a conqueror.

Abortion and Homosexuality are frontal assaults on the idea that our survival depends on our numbers. People may rightly discern that advocates of these ideas are endangering everyone.

Just a thought.


David

M. Simon said...

I don't know how you eliminate homosexuality. It seems to have been with us for many thousands of years. In fact the genetic component of homosexuality is thought to increase the fertility of women who are carriers. Although that is just a hypothesis.

As to abortion: in the old days Moloch served that purpose.

My theory: the welfare state has reduced or eliminated the need for children to care for aging parents. More damaging than homosex or abortion combined. i.e. some one else's kids will take care of me. Tragedy of the commons.

RavingDave said...

The welfare state has produced an abundance of Fatherless children. They have been a great comfort to our nation.

I see tragedy stemming from everything the left has ever done in this country.

There is a reason the latin word for left is sinistro. (sinister.)


David



David

kurt9 said...

The fertility numbers for the muslims are grossly exaggerated. It is well-known that the birthrate of 2nd generation muslims in Europe is around 2.5 kids per women. Even the muslims of Chechnya have a birthrate around 3 per woman. These birthrates are certainly higher than the white european ones, but nothing close to the 8 kids per woman cited in the video.

Birthrates throughout North Africa and the muslim middle east are declining dramatically as well. That Islamic Republic of Iran had a below-replacement birthrate, as does Turkey. Egypt's is around 2.6 kids per woman and dropping fast.

This video is Mark Steyn's shtick.

The world is not about to fall to the muslims. Far more likely, Europe and Russia (and the muslim world) will fall into decaying malaise that the Chinese will exploit to their advantage.

The future is Chinese anyways.

As far as "doing my part goes", does support and promoting of development of transhumanism and SENS anti-aging technology count?

kurt9 said...

The numbers and future projections cited in the video are largely false.

http://tkcollier.wordpress.com/2009/05/09/muslim-birthrates-falling-worldwide/

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/muslimsineurope.aspx?p=1

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2008/menafertilitydecline.aspx?p=1

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/completingfertility/2RevisedABBASIpaper.PDF

The aging of both Europe and the middle east (as well as East Asia) is a real issue. However, aging is simply a bio-engineering problem, nothing less and nothing more. The same engineering mentality that can create fusion power can certainly cure aging as well.

http://www.sens.org/index.php

M. Simon said...

Kurt,

Demographically China is a falling power. Their population is aging about .8 or .9 years per year.

The USA demographic age is holding relatively constant.

kurt9 said...

Yes, China is aging as well. In any case, aging is a bio-engineering challenge, nothing more.

M. Simon said...

In any case, aging is a bio-engineering challenge, nothing more.It all depends on when significant advances that actually affect the population occur. Next year - fine. Fifty years from now - not so good. We may see a few wars and revolutions in the mean time caused by demographic imbalances. China is headed for instability by around 2020. Iran is already in trouble. Europe is in serious trouble from the birth dearth. Its culture is changing. Russia is shrinking at the rate of about 1 million people a year. etc. etc. etc.

RavingDave said...

If Kurt9 is indeed right about the video's numbers being skewed, then that is indeed reassuring. Of course it just means that it will take a little longer to completely islamicize Europe.


David

kurt9 said...

Next year - fine. Fifty years from now - not so good.2030-2040 time frame.

http://sens.org/

From a technical standpoint, SENS is probably easier than fusion.

There are things you can do now that will improve your odds of making it. Resveratrol may well offer the same benefits as CR. I take CoQ-10 and Carnosine as well. Weight-training is an integral part of my regimen as well (this increases invivo HGH and IGF-1 production).


We may see a few wars and revolutions in the mean time caused by demographic imbalances. China is headed for instability by around 2020. Iran is already in trouble. Europe is in serious trouble from the birth dearth. Its culture is changing. Russia is shrinking at the rate of about 1 million people a year. etc. etc. etc.No doubt. I think China will do just fine for the next half-century at least. You are right about all of the other places you mentioned.

If aging is a problem for China, is it not likely they will come to view it as a bio-engineering problem as I do? Aubrey de Grey has recently been at conferences in Hong Kong and Singapore in the past year.

Jim Rogers is bullish on China's long term prospects.

M. Simon said...

Kurt,

You might have a point if it were not for the Social Security problem.

Typically governments solve them by killing off the "unproductive" or the politically "undesirable".

Paying For Social Security

kurt9 said...

Social security is not a problem. Means testing could be applied, or those undergoing rejuvenation be required to give up future claims on social security. In any case, programs like social security and medicare will be obsolete in a post-mortal society.

M. Simon said...

Kurt,

Typically it is the transitions that kill you.

kurt9 said...

Yes, that's right.

That's why you do whatever you can to increase your chances of making it through the transition. For me, this is my "life extension" regime, which consists of both supplements and weight-training. My supplement regimen consists of CoQ-10, resveratrol (250mg per day), and carnosine. I chelated with ALA (alpha lipoic acid) for 18 months as well. It is well-known that weight training (natural, of course) increases your body's production of HGH, IGF-1, and other hormones and enzymes that, in turn, increase self-repair capability.

Resveratrol is the biggie. If the papers I read about it are for real, it is likely to get me to the time (2040 or so) when the SENS therapies are not only available, but reasonably cheap.

MSimon, you strike me as a man of good character. A part of good character is the ability to persist in the pursuit of a long term goal, no matter what hurtles the rest of society throws up in your way. What has always been incomprehensible to me is why people fail to apply this principle of character to life extension/health maintenance as much as they do for financial planning or any other long-term pursuit in life. What is even more stupid and irrational is people telling me it is somehow "immoral" to take this same goal-oriented approach to life extension as one would to financial planning and other pursuits in life.

I think you would agree with me that a real man decides on a long term goal or objective, then does whatever it takes to realize it, no matter what crap the rest of society throws up in his face.

M. Simon said...

kurt,

Bravo to you.

Me? I'm not interested in living forever. Another 10 years in reasonable health will be good enough.

kurt9 said...

That's fine. However, the development of either polywell or FRC fusion is going to be a 10 year process, if either of these work.

Don't you want to live long enough to experience all the possibilities, such as space colonization, that fusion power will create?

M. Simon said...

I will be satisfied to live long enough to see the full power test reactor built.

Odds are I have 20 more years to go. My mom is 89 and my dad was non-functional at 80. Died at 82.

I'm 64. Ten years is long enough.

kurt9 said...

What do you think of Helion's FRC concept? Art Carlson (the perpetual skeptic of polywell) seems to think it has a better shot at success than polywell.

M. Simon said...

Kurt,

I see you got a prominent mention at Next Big Future.

I haven't studied it in detail so I can't say much about it. At $20 million I say build it and see what happens.

The cost is peanuts compared to ITER. And if it works? The rush will be on for all kinds of small fusion devices.