The Hinge

I was reading some back issues of Michael Totten's blog and came across a link to Conflict Blotter where I found this interesting bit of news about the activities of Hezballah in Lebanon.

It is clear there are chilling developments going on in southern Lebanon, especially north of the Litani that I will address in later blog posts.

Without reading any of the other posts I'm going to assume it has to do with the military hinge where the Litani heads west. From that position an army (presumably Israeli) could head either west following the river or north into the Bekaa Valley.

I discussed the issue of the Bekaa Valley in Tactics, Strategy, Grand Strategy, where I outline what Israel should have done (how stupid of me to think that they had leadership smart enough to carry out the plan). I also discuss the strategic importance of the Litani hinge at:

The Bitter Taste of Victory
Assad: UN Stay Out of Bekaa
Syria Has a Problem

The hinge has strategic importance. My best guess - and for me it is rarely deja vu all over again - is that Hezballah is strengthening the hinge to make Israel commit sooner or to give it bases for flank attacks if the Israeli Army goes north. If the Israeli Army went west from there it would have the means to slow the advance.

Conflict Blotter gives his opinion along with some new information plus the most important part of any military planning or estimation exercise. Maps. He has a further follow up at A soldier’s analysis of Hezbollah’s war preps.