Energy Panics

We have been having energy panics for as long as I can remember. We have yet to come to a point where the market if allowed to react to prices couldn't adjust.

Well I'm over at Winds of Change, where they are discussing tide power. The article they point to is discussing what a great thing it will be by 'n by. One commenter wails that he thinks millionaires are wasting their money on rides in space when they could be funding wave power. This point of view has a number of faults, however, in the comments section there (reprinted here) I deal with the technical aspects.

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The way to get millionaire capitalists to invest in any kind of power is to show an above average rate of return. Preferably in a year or less.

Of course with all the environmental regulatory hurdles they have to go through plus government permission for use of a section of the coastal ocean you have a number of barriers to progress with wave energy.

Fairly applied regulations slow every thing down. Not just the bad guys.

My guess is that the money is going into wind because the payback is good and well established. In addition a wind plant can be put up in six months and the electrical grid need not be extended (at least for on shore wind).

There may be maintenance factors as well.

Every time I come here I find a number of folks untutored in energy, mechanics, science, control theory, production, logistics, etc. hoping for a miracle cure. It is as much fun as listening to flat earthers. Amusing occasionally. Boring for long stretches.

The major energy systems of 40 years hence are already in significant production.

That would be wind (1,000s of Megawatts per year [peak] installed every year) and solar voltaic (10s of Megawatts per year [peak] installed every year).

In the automotive sector it would be the gas/electric hybrid. (something like 1/2 million or a million will get made this year.)

Every thing else is experimental.

There is no magic cure. Progress as usual will be slow and steady. The best we can do is nudge it in the right direction. There is a lot of inertia in any industrial system.

If we had the magic cure tomorrow it would still take 40 years to build out. Even if the magic cure produced free energy it would still take 5 to 10 years. That would be design and test time. Time to ramp up production. Time to teach people how to install it. etc.

Take wind:

The first major installations (Tehachapi in CA I think) happened 25 or 30 years ago and were not very cost effective. It has taken that long for the size to get up to the range where wind power can compete with coal and nukes.

Photo voltaics have been in the pipe line longer but are not yet economical for large installations due to the slower rate of cost decline. Still it will be a factor. Just not as big as wind for quite some time (perhaps as long as 100 years).

Pretty much we have to make do with what we got and work for incremental improvements.

BTW if we convert to renewables in 100 years that still leaves us with 400 years of coal. Probably 100 years of oil (I think that point will be controversial) and several hundred years worth of nuclear power (I know, I know - the plutonium).

Plenty of time to make the changes (already in progress).

Don't panic. Unless of course you enjoy that sort of thing. Personally I worried about these sorts of problems 45 years ago. I became an engineer. I have operated nuke plants. I have studied wind. I first used solar voltaics in 1962. I have designed aircraft electrical system.

Quit complaing and get educated.