Strategy for Victory
Hizballah/Iran was asking for a cease fire after 4 days.
Israel was pressured into a cease fire after 34 days.
Hizballah won.
In fact Hizballah can never lose. Why? Because Islamics are not allowed to lose. They are the world's all time winners. The Israelis never defeat them. The Americans never defeat them. The British never defeated them. The French never defeated them. There is a very long list there.
Pay no attention to Nasserallah's statement that had he contemplated even 1% of the damage he suffered he would not have started the war. He won. One hundred times more destruction than he contemplated.
Hizballah drove the Israelis out of Lebanon. Proving their strength.
In fact all Hizballah needed to do to drive the Israelis out of Lebanon was to quit fighting. Perhaps there is a lesson there. On the proper Hizballah strategy for victory.
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FROM CAROL HERMAN
People forget that nasrallah had incorporated missiles, launchers, anti-tank weapons. AND BUNKERS, throughout Southern Lebanon. IT WAS THE MOST "WELL DEFENDED" SPOT ON EARTH! But Israel didn't bite. And, what it did do, that looked TO FOOL Nasrallah; was to follow the dictums of Sun-Tzu (appear weak when you are, in fact strong.) AND DECEIVE YOUR ENEMY.
Olmert and Amir Peretz made it seem like nobody knew what they were doing. But this is the first war Israel had that EXTENDED THE CLOCK; so it didn't have to be done in a week.
And, had the fewest casualties.
With the most payoff.
It destroyed nasrallah's infrastructure. It hit where it wanted to hit. Including in Beirut. It eventually exposed the media's faux-photography. At least their won't be pulitzers for the crap you saw.
And, Israel took bargaining chips. (Prisoners.) It took all the logistical plans. Computers. Code books. Plans for the bunker system (which is still be destroyed, now. Prior to turning areas over to the UN.
Olmert didn't let Condi Rice push him around. He didn't go after assad. Though he did keep baiting the trap, assad decided not to engage.
Condi can't say to Olmert, "now that you killed assad, you can give back the Golan." Because had this happened the Saudis would have been handed syria on a silver platter. Olmert wanted NONE OF THIS! (So Bush is pissed off. That's his problem. "IF" he's pissed off.) Condi's career? She's not running for president in 2008. And, no one's inviting her on board as veep, either. (So, all around, Olmert's been one heck of a success. After another.)
From Israel's point of view, things couldn't have gone better.
And, as Liddell-Hart explains in STRATEGY, the WEST has to LEARN how to do its own guerrilla fighting. He called in CAMOPHLAGE WAR. Where you do to the terrorists exactly what they do to others. You hit quickly. And, drive them crazy, BY WITHDRAWING! (Because they don't know where you're gonna show up t'marra.)
You do not hold territory! Keep this in mind. Liddell-Hart knew what he was talking about ...
And, I'm still impressed that Arik Sharon, recorded in his autobiography, WARRIOR, that he met Liddell-Hart, in England, in 1958. Oh, boy. I can only imagine "that" conversation!
Israel knows where it is. Others? STill need a learning curve.
Bibi? Stuck with 12 seats. And, if there are new elections? Silvan Shalom will pull off some of the Likud ministers and form a new-new party. The right, in Israel will be very fragmented.
Olmert? Young enough to run again. And, do better than the last time. He doesn't pick the biggest extortionists to form his government, either. And, he knows Israeli politics from the INSIDE. He's been a player all along.
I hope Halutz holds on tight. There are a lot of men who envy him. Especially among the retired. And, he went to them to try to explain. Which does teach a lesson. Bush's method of just lifting up the draw bridge is much, much better.
AGAIN. FROM CAROL HERMAN
Sometimes, ya just gotta laugh.
It's like getting great cards in poker. And, then playing your hand well. So others think you're a jerk. And, bet the farm.
Let me explain, here. By example.
In 2000 we all know the fight Bush had to win the presidency. But there were 2000 votes swept to the side! How so, you might ask? Because on a BUTTERFLY BALLOT, Jews in Palm Beach voted for Pat Buchanan.
And, once you cast your vote; even if you jump up and down. You cannot retract it. Asking to vote, again. That's the rules of the game.
So? Well, let's say that Olmert & Amir Peretz were TRULY INCOMPETENT (rather than "smart politicians.) They came out with an end result in Lebanon that's nearly perfect.
That a few "boy-chickles" complained? Did you notice they were religious Jews? And, only a few of them actually complained? This kept going on until the BULK of returning soldiers pointed to the small size of the group of complainers. And, said they were "out of line."
And, this died down. Today, in Israel there's a lot of evaluating going on. And, most people see a GREAT CONCLUSION on a number of scores. Olmert didn't dance the Bush (how low can you go, LIMBO.) Instead, Condi took her capital and tossed it to Chirac. (Perhaps, her hatred of Jews is as strong as Kofi's? If so, she had it under pretty good disguise.) But that's gone, now.
And, the saudis still have problems with the Alawites, in syria. Because Assad RULES from a minority chair. Where he also RULES in Lebanon. Nothing's much has changed there. Dope fiends will still be able to buy the best blonde hash hish driven by mules, grown in the Bakakta Valley. Such is life. The mafia rules when no one interferes with their game. And, I don't care.
The saudis care. So they have to out-bid everyone, buying up what they had been hoping, would be "cheap" Lebanese property. Again. I do not care.
But was this a repeat of 2000? In other words did OLMERT & Company FALL INTO GOOD LUCK? Was this Olmert's turn at the Butterfly Ballot? God is good to the Jews, sometimes, just by the way we get to see the results of probabilities. When games get played.
Could it be? God is not playing into the hands of the religious right in Israel? So far, it would seem so. As Bibi does not have 61-votes to tear down the current government.
And, Olmert is in charge. He knew a thing or two about distributing portfolios (even better than Arik Sharon). Since Labor did pull down at least one of his governments. And, the right wing nutters, the other.)
It's worth contemplating. Or not.
But when the military books come in on this one; it will be seen as the FUTURE PLAY, outlined by Liddell-Hart. Remember this: Liddell-Hart discounted nukes.
He says the WEST wins by DECEPTION. By "looking weak" while being strong. And, by fighting guerrilla's at their own asymetrical game.
How so? By NEVER taking territory. (Guerrillas never take territory; because when they do it costs them! They have to seed the territory with their troops. Few of whom could hold more than their own putz's.)
Israel did CAMOPHLAGE WARFARE exactly as Liddell-Hart suggested the WEST needs to do, as it stops doing conventional "boots on the ground" warfare.
This pisses off the haredi. And, you think I care? Cry babies. Especially when you don't feed their sons. (Here? I'm running to put on a kettle of Kosher Chicken Soup, right now.) It's a cure.
While I wouldn't touch a hair on Olmert's head. Gosh. He's got a comb-over. And, he's electable. God jokes with us all of the time.
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