Nasserallah Against Breaking Truce
From Beirut to the Beltway has a report on Nasserallah's latest pronouncements in Lebanon. He said that in the past, whenever an Israeli bulldozer would enter, they attacked it and sent it back. Now, he says, the Israelis enter the country whenever they please. He warned against turning the Lebanese army into a unit to merely count the number of Israeli transgressions. The country's sovereignty is being violated now, and the government's political decision is not there.
A pretext for what exactly? What is it Nasserallah fears? A resumption of a war that he won?
Nasrallah threatened that there is a limit to his patience, and so far he did not want to violate UNSC 1701 for fear Israel would use it as a pretext.
The commenters at "From Beirut..." tend to believe Nasserallah has lost touch with reality. I'm inclined to agree.
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4 comments:
FROM CAROL HERMAN
Call me "not impressed."
nasrallah climbed out of his hidey-hole.
You want me to bet on the lebanese? Okey dokey. They lose. They draw bad cards. And, nothing comes up for them. Except the ONE REALITY. If the Israelis get mad, again. The next time "in" the TERMINAL at the airport goes buh-bye. That's a $5-BILLION DOLLAR loss. Their rhetoric tends to get them into trouble.
In 1982, Arik Sharon went in and cleared out the pus pocket that arafat got on the shores of Beirut. And, ya know what? The lebanese NEVER SAID THANKS!
Today, Israel has NO INTEREST in anything in lebanon!
And, yes. We've seen a turn in the way the Israelis fight! NO LONGER TAKING TERRITORY!
In other words, when you read Liddell-Hart, you see pointed out for you the way TERRORISTS FIGHT! They hit. And, run.
And, now you can see an adaptation of that very same principal!
No need for chips. Nothing to bargain for at the UN. So the UN is the worst off for it!
Nothing to portray in front of the propagandists! (By the way, the American military learned its lessons, THAT THE PRESS WAS HOSTILE, way back in the Civil War! To this day, Ulysses S. Grant is MISREPRESENTED! Because way back then, the NY Press was hostile, and always crying UNCLE. And, claiming LEE was the "best general." When he was clearly second best!)
And, that hostility sells newspapers.
Ah. You might want to point out that the newspapers aren't selling all that well. And, here, I'd agree.
Life's always in flux. Things that were once popular, go down in popularity. Fashions change.
And, in wars, America and Israel will no longer be involved in those BIG TIME operations, that we saw in the past.
The new-new thing? Quick. Loud. And, capable of injuring the enemy. While in terms of GRAND STRATEGY you can't plan that there's much you can change among savages. UNLESS you're willing to wait.
So that by the time WW2 came around, for instance, the injuns in America were no longer going on scalping parties. And, the MOHAWKS were capable of keeping lines open, that left the german's perplexed. They never could figure out those click signals.
And, that's the way it should be.
TOP DOWN organizationsw tends to lose.
Democracy builds better.
But this is for the very long haul.
While one of the best things for society is FREEDOM OF SPEECH. Always including the crap you don't want to hear. Because in time what you get is an entire spectrum. And, those damn lying priests get put out of business.
I am not so sure about Nasrallah.
The reality he is after is the Islamic Republic of Lebanon. He is well on his way to making that possible.
I find it very revealing that Israel has chosen not to try and assissinate him. It may suit Israel to grab southern lebanon; in the face of continued Lebanese decision avoidance, the last war would then only be a dress rehersal.
FROM: CAROL HERMAN
Jeha, you can't assasinate a man who lives in a hidey-hole.
And, when nasrallah came "out" the french supplied jets overhead. (I think the french would like to engage the Israelis with these shinanigans.)
While the "diplomatic track" may just have been developed by Bush. He was pissed off at Olmert for not tackling Assad. WHile the Israelis really have no use for Bush's saudi friends.
I'm not so sure the words matter.
The "big test" ahead is what happens when the lebanese "throw rocks" into Israel. And, today, Peretz has given the IDF an order TO SHOOT BACK. Not to go back to the stage the way it had been set for the hez-bullies by 6 or 7 years of Israeli indifference.
The other thing to notice is that the Israelis are really HOT TO TROT. And, it was considered an Israeli weakness; with all sorts of "commissions," now in progress.
The french are a nuisance. That's all.
When Patton tackled Algeria, getting the Vichy french to lay down their arms was easy. The germans, however, did battle!
And, as long as we're still looking at the french, I think, all you're getting is postures for the MSM. Not any real movement.
And, we're still INSIDE the curve for the November 7th elections. Meaning that Bush doesn't want anything to erupt that can catch American attention. UNTIL WE'RE THROUGH AT THE POLLS.
Maybe, on November 8th we'll get a clearer picture?
Israel isn't going to be satisfied with just sitting around, doing diplomatic pants dancing, while there are still 3 kidnapped soldiers who have not been returned.
While in Gazoo, there's been real headaches for Abbas.
Sometimes, I just shrug. Each and every state has differring interests.
That Assad makes sounds? I guess he's trying to look less lame. Since he had a very good chance this summer.
While the real threat is still coming from what the french said they'd do; which you and I know they will never do!
Shaba? And, the Golan? If the syrians or lebanese want it they're gonna have to fight!
nasrallah? Who the heck knows! Siniora has Bush's warm embrace. And, this is why things are moving very slow.
While if all of lebanon goes down the crapper, who in this world would really care?
JUST ANOTHER NOTE (OR OBSERVATION)
FROM: CAROL HERMAN
You know what's coming through don't cha? ANTI-TANK MISSILES.
These will work just as well on the french as on anybody.
I think that's why the IDF left.
So the french can get mired into the factions that exist in South Lebanon.
It's not a free pass, yet, for the french, ya know?
Let me put it another way. The french, in lebanon, can MIS-MANAGE themselves, just like the Brit's did in Iraq.
ASSUME NOTHING.
Just watch.
Because the IDF will take NO CRAP!
Yes, in the recent "skirmish," where the hezzies went into an Israeli Kibbutz and STOLE all the military arsenal stored there, the IDF has to repair the damage.
But time? They've got lots of it. So just wait.
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