22 August

The President of Iran, who I refer to as Ahmadinnerjacket, has been going on for months now with dire threats to Israel and warnings of a special surprise on 22 August of this year. He promises to light up the night sky over Israel. I wonder what the Iranians have in mind?

These threats have reader Kelly Brown worried. She has asked me a number of questions which I will try to answer.

Neither the Norks nor the Iranians have intercontinental missiles capable of delivering a nuke of Iranian design (unless the Iranians have perfected a plutonium bomb). The missiles they have are 3,000 mi max. range or less. They are not very accurate either.

These rockets are fear weapons not militarily useful (they can't hit designated targets within the lethal range of the war heads - even with a nuclear warhead).

If the missiles spewed a bunch of lethal gas or radioactive material over a city that is not very dangerous. If spewed over a neighborhood its danger is limited. If confined to a city block a few hundred people are at risk.

So keep your fears within rational bounds.

Suppose the Iranian missiles are pretty good and have an accuracy of .5% (without stelar or GPS course correction) with just plain old inertial navigation. The range from Iran to Israel is about 1,000 miles. That means an error of about 5 miles. It makes a big difference if you hit on the edge of a city or in the center. Even with a nuke.

So what kind of attack with a nuke would be useful with that kind of accuracy?

An emp attack. It destroys electronics but not people.

A small nuke (10kt to 100kt) in the center of a city (detonated around 2,000 feet above it) would kill 50,000 to 200,000. Too high or too low and the death toll goes down.

How accurate does the timing need to be for a missile traveling at 2,000 mph? Say we allow +/- 1,000 ft. At 2,000 mph the missile is traveling at about 3,000 ft per second. That means detonation within 1/3 of a second - not too bad if the missile knows exactly where it is at or it has some kind of height above ground radar. Well a ballistic missile at the end of a 1,000 mile run has no idea of where it is at within the required accuracy. So that won't work. So how about a height above ground radar? Could work. But it adds another complication. Another point of failure. Could the Iranians build and test and certify that the electronics would be 99.99% reliable? Since a dud is of no use even as a terror weapon. Difficult to do. How do I know? Well I have assisted in building just such an item.

If the Iranians were any good at building such devices they would be using them on the larger missiles they shoot into Israel. I have seen no evidence of such an item.

The way to go for Iran is an air burst 1 to 10 miles in the air to create an emp pulse.

Such an attack is an act of war and would get Israeli and American retaliation.

Plus to be a significant emp attack you would need at minimum a 100kt warhead. Likely the Iranian war head (even if it was a stolen Russian warhead) is likely to be 1/10th that size. So I would say it was unlikely. Not impossible.

In addition such an attack would hurt Syria (maybe that is why they are opening their shelters) and Jordan.

Again, it would be very annoying but not dangerous. At worst you might lose 1/3 of the electronics in proximity to the blast. The military of course would lose very little eqpt. It is designed to withstand such effects.

So what about a nuclear or terrorist attack on a nuke plant designed to cause a meltdown? I'm a former Naval Nuke. In America, a reactor meltdown like Chernobyl is very difficult. In fact Chernobyl was difficult. They had to disconnect a safety system and seriously violate procedures to get a meltdown. American reactors unlike Russian models have containment buildings designed to handle pressure differences on the order of 8X atmospheric pressure. They can withstand a direct hit from a jumbo jet. A terrorist attack or even nuking a plant (the nuke would have to land on top of the containment vessel) probably couldn't cause a melt down.

As to fears of death. We are all front line troops in this war.

read this: Sacrifices.

Some of us may have to die to defeat this enemy. Make up your mind and be ready to do your part.

So what do I expect? A small nuclear explosion done as a threat and a warning.

Well we have 11 days to go. I have to tell you. If I start thinking about this too much my fears start to rise. What can an individual do? Other than being prepared to do your best and get your survival kit together. Not much.

Some resources:

Iraq the Model asks: Is Hezbollah launching Iran's Armageddon?

Some people are wondering if the plan to blow up the airplanes was set for 22 August? Could be. The initial step was to be a dry run. Then they have to return to the starting point. Get ready then do it for real. It is 11 days to the 22nd. For the record the plan I'm refering to was the one busted on August 10th.

Iran's Day of Terror?

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has frustrated Western officials by refusing to reply to their offer of various incentives in exchange for Iran’s discarding its nuclear program until August 22. The Western governments had asked Ahmadinejad to reply by June 29; why would Tehran need two extra months?

Farid Ghadry, the president of the Reform Party of Syria, has offered a provocative explanation for this delay. He asserts that the Supreme National Security Council of Iran chose the August 22 date “for a very precise reason. August 21, 2006 (Rajab 27, 1427) is known in the Islamic calendar as the Night of the Sira’a and Miira’aj, the night Prophet Mohammed (saas) ascended to heaven from the Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on a Bourak (Half animal, half man), while a great light lit-up the night sky, and visited Heaven and Hell also Beit al-Saada and Beit al-Shaqaa (House of Happiness and House of Misery) and then descended back to Mecca.…”

The Night Journey, or Miraj, is central to Islam’s claim to Jerusalem as an Islamic holy city. According to Islamic tradition, Muhammad was carried on a Buraq, a miraculous horse with a human head, from Mecca to Jerusalem, where he ascended into heaven and met the other prophets.

Interesting.

Bernard Lewis - Does Iran have something in store?

It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal, thanks to their own researches (which began some 15 years ago), to some of their obliging neighbors, and to the ever-helpful rulers of North Korea. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad would seem to indicate the reality and indeed the imminence of this threat.

Would the same constraints, the same fear of mutual assured destruction, restrain a nuclear-armed Iran from using such weapons against the U.S. or against Israel?

The short answer? No.

Armageddon Cocktail Hour

In a keynote speech on Wednesday to senior clerics, Ahmadinejad spoke of his strong belief in the second coming of Shi’ite Muslims’ “hidden” 12th Imam.

According to Shi’ite Muslim teaching, Abul-Qassem Mohammad, the 12th leader whom Shi’ites consider descended from the Prophet Mohammed, disappeared in 941 but will return at the end of time to lead an era of Islamic justice.

“Our revolution’s main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi,” Ahmadinejad said in the speech to Friday Prayers leaders from across the country.

“Therefore, Iran should become a powerful, developed and model Islamic society.”

“Today, we should define our economic, cultural and political policies based on the policy of Imam Mahdi’s return. We should avoid copying the West’s policies and systems,” he added, newspapers and local news agencies reported.

Well if you want to get more depressed Google - August 22 Iran.

These are not happy times. May they lead to better days.