Friday, July 28, 2006

The Syrian View

I have just come across a very interesting Syrian blog Amarji - A Heretic's Blog. He has some very interesting things to say about the Syrian situation in a post he calls Taunting Lions!.

The repeated calls on the Assads of Syria to allow for cross-border operations to take place in the Golan may not be as “innocent” and naïve as they might seem at first. Indeed, when they are issued by an opposition figure like Mamoun al-Homsi, such calls are actually meant to taunt and gaud the Assads into taking a course of action that better fits their very nationalistic rhetoric, but one, nonetheless, that will bring about a confrontation that the Assads know very well that they cannot handle and that will only serve to expose them for the national frauds that they are. As such, calling for the liberation of the Golan is “smart” politics at this stage.

The only problem with it, of course, is that they, the Assads, are so addict on brinkmanship that they may find it necessary, if such calls were reiterated widely and frequently enough in the country, and are adopted by no lesser figures than the likes of Salahuddin Kiftaro, the son of the country’s late Grand Mufti, who had been first to issue such a call anyway, to take the gamble and allow for some operations to indeed take place across the border regardless of the consequences, which are bound to be quite dire, as we can all imagine. Or, the entire issue might simply be taken out of their hand all together and be forced upon the scene by some hapless nationalist or Islamist group acting on its own initiative.
Serious aggitation in Syria to join in the war. Interesting. It is just what I have been hoping for.

Even more interesting is this comment by Fares in this post Betting on the Assads.
The regime has commited grave mistakes regarding Lebanon and also how to deal with the Americans as well as choosing a looser Ally like Iran. There is no cold war anymore but it seems like people in the ruling circles as well as blind supporters of the regime still think that there is still the soviet union to clean up all kind of messes.

I think if Israel continue to suffer more losses, they will score a political victory by bombing Assad's palaces and Assad won't be able to retaliate and that could be a good reason for a military coup by someone in the army which will be given cover by France.
You know Fares could pass for an Israeli with this comment. Interesting times we live in. If we can make it through the summer without a nuclear war the world could be a much better place in the fall.

Visit Fares' blog here.

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1 comment:

Alex Richards said...

Nah, Iranians aren't stupid. They're shrewed clever little buggers. They're not starting any nuclear war nor intending to harm Israel. Nor cooperating with
our "generalissimo". I wouldn't be surprised if they tricked him into believing they're supporting him, which would't be to hard, mind. Oh, nor starting any Islamic Revolution in Syria (because they're as Muslim as the Pope, mark that). The real threat is the Brotherhood, which beside from literally shooting every secular in range, God knows what else they migh do.
Well, never mind.